户籍制度改革对农村劳动力流动影响模拟研究?--基于新经济地理学视角

文章基于新经济地理学中间投入品模型,将户籍制度、土地产权制度和不同劳动力流动模式等因素纳入研究框架中,构建了中国户籍制度演变模型,并通过数值计算模拟了户籍制度和土地产权制度改革对农村劳动力流动的影响。研究结果表明：(1)不同户籍制度的改革路径极大地影响了农村劳动力转移和经济发展,如果降低户籍制度对劳动力流动的束缚,经济系统会释放巨大的改革红利,而维持当前户籍制度不变将遭受较大损失;(2)不同土地产权制度的改革路径影响了户籍制度的改革效果,如果农民工“带着土地”进行转移将会放大户籍制度改革所释放的红利。这表明户籍制度改革和土地产权制度改革要协同进行,不仅要减少户籍制度对农民工迁移的束缚,还应保留其农用地承包权和宅基地使用权。文章的研究不仅丰富和完善了现有劳动力迁移理论,也为地方政府相关决策提供了新的思路。     

市民化过程中土地退出 问题与制度改革的新思路

本文认为市民化过程是一个综合性的、全局性的系统工程,仅仅依靠户籍制度改革是不能解决问题的,还必须同步推进土地制度改革。本文从农村集体成员定义角度提出了解决土地制度改革和户籍制度改革的新思路。本文的观点是,把静态集体成员变为动态的集体成员,就能同时解决市民化过程中农村的衰落和农民工有偿退出承包地的双重困境。     

Part‐Peasants: Incomplete Rural–Urban Labour Migration in China

The institutional settings in China, including the land allocation system and the household registration system, lead to a rural–urban labour migration pattern that differs from that in other countries. Individual peasants' labour is often split (typically over different times of the year) into two or more parts as a result of institutional factors. Individuals work both as peasants on the land and as temporary migrant workers in urban areas (or in rural non‐agricultural sectors). We examine this issue using province‐level panel data. The present study provides a new interpretation of the phenomenon of labour shortages in coastal cities and rising rural migrant wages in China in recent years, and discusses whether the Lewisian turning point has been reached. Under part migration, the rural labour supply to urban areas is smaller than would be the case with full migration of workers to urban areas, so that the Lewisian turning point occurs earlier. This finding has important policy implications for China's future development.     

Land transfer in rural China: incentives,influencing factors and income effects

ABSTRACT

Land transfer incentives and their effect on farmers’ income in developing countries have been widely examined in the literate, but little is known about the driving mechanism of rural household income effect during land transfer. To fill in this gap, this paper explains the incentives of land transfer, analyses the influencing factors of farmers’ decision on land transfer, then measures the income effects of land transfer and identifies the main sources of income effects, utilizing open-access data collected through the China Family Panel Studies. The empirical results show that land flow out or in is beneficial to raise farmers’ income, indicating that the income effects have a positive feedback to farmers’ decision on land transfer. Further analyses reveal that land flow-out farmers and land flow-in farmers have different main sources of income growth. Our finding suggest that optimizing the incentive role of China’s existing rural land property system can help orderly flow of rural land resources, which subsequently increases rural household income.     

Modeling migration barriers in a two-sector framework: A welfare analysis of the hukou reform in China

The present paper constructs a two-sector labor market model for China featuring endogenous internal labor mobility and heterogeneous costs of migration induced by the Chinese household registration system (hukou). The main novelty of our model is to divide migrants into those with more family responsibilities and those with fewer to explain the empirical fact that almost all young people with rural hukou have migrated to cities, while people who stay in the rural area are older and have more family responsibilities. We conduct two policy experiments using the model: one experiment concerned with reducing costs of living for younger migrants and the other for older migrants. The main results are that the first policy would unambiguously increase social welfare, while the reduced-cost policy for older migrants would reduce poverty and inequality although some urban natives may experience a wage reduction.     

Dual-track Ownership Reforms: Lessons from Structural Change in China, 1978‐1997

The dual-track approach is characteristic of evolutionary reforms in China. The most important aspect of this dualism has been the reform of the ownership structure. On the one track, new, basically market-oriented institutions emerged in a parallel economy comprising non-state enterprises. On the other track, stateowned enterprises were retained and reforms were restricted to conservative policy changes bringing minor productivity-enhancing measures. In order to highlight the performance of the two tracks, a widely neglected indicator is employed to check the performance of enterprises: namely a structural comparison of the resource reallocation processes of both tracks over time. It becomes clear that structural adjustment was basically generated by the new track. In addition, it is shown that the increasing competition from the new track will not accelerate structural adjustment of the old track as long as institutional reforms of SOEs are not significantly extended.     

The Collective Household, Household Production and Efficiency of Marginal Reforms

Most research on the welfare properties of taxes employs the unitary model of the household, ignoring household production. A simple model provides expressions for the changes in individual utility given marginal reforms to government policy. It is shown that the burden of a higher tax on household goods falls on the household member that consumes more than they produce or purchase. Numerical calculations show that price substitution (complementarity) between home and market labor increases (decreases) aggregate efficiency costs of a marginal redistribution of income without impacting the intra-household distribution of utility changes. Modeling household goods as public versus private can alter the distributional consequences of marginal reforms.     

城市化、农地制度与迁移人口社会保障——一个转轨中发展的大国视角与政策选择

城市化过程中的流动人口,农村内部农地调整以及农用土地非农化问题是现阶段中国转轨与经济发展过程中面临的重大问题。这三方面问题具有非常紧密的关联,需要一个整体思路来进行分析,更需要在此基础上给出系统、具操作性的解决方案。本文在对这些问题及其政策关联性进行剖析的基础上,揭示了中国户籍制度与农地制度改革在一个大国的转轨与经济发展过程中的特殊性,并提出一个政策组合,试图在改革现有土地征用制度的同时,通过给予农民在土地和城镇社会保障之间的自由选择权建立起一种良性的城市化机制,从而实现户籍制度和农地制度改革的突破。     

Economies of scale and mechanization in Chinese corn and wheat production

ABSTRACT

As the growth in Chinese farm productivity slowed down between 2000 and 2010, modernizing agriculture has become a priority of the Chinese government. Given the important role of mechanization and land reform policies in that context, this study investigates farm production in China with a specific emphasis on the potential role of mechanization as well as land and farm consolidation. A production function is estimated using farm household data on corn and wheat production in the Shandong and Hebei provinces. The results allowed us to explore the potential economies of scale across a range of farm size, the impact of land fragmentation, and assess the impact of machinery usage. Our findings suggest that, taken in isolation, the prospect for efficiency gains from mechanization and land reforms appears limited.     

收入风险对居民耐用品消费的影响

本文首次采用大型微观家庭面板数据对我国城乡居民的耐用品消费进行深入研究,主要结论包括:(1)改革进程方面,20世纪90年代中后期国企转制和员工下岗等就业体制方面的重大变革,使居民"收入风险"显著上升,进而明显抑制了城乡家庭的耐用品消费。(2)城乡对比方面,农村家庭面临更高的收入风险,其消费决策对风险因素也更为敏感,因此在当前的"新农村"建设中,建立健全农业保险和农村就业保障体系,对于提高农民消费和福利水平意义重大。(3)本文的研究结果完全支持(S,s)理论模型;同时在收入风险的度量和代理变量选取方面,文章中的一些分析方法也可以应用于汽车、住房等相关领域的研究和政策评价。     

经济刺激计划与农村消费启动——基于我国农村居民收入分解的实证分析

文章在对我国农村居民收入构成进行分解的基础上,利用协整等计量工具时影响我国农村居民消费的各种因素进行了量化分析,并由此对照我国政府为应对世界经济危机而出台的一揽子经济刺激计划,分析经济刺激计划中各项具体政策措施在促进农村消费方面的作用.实证分析和政策分析的结果表明:(1)当前对农村居民消费具有显著影响的因素主要是农村居民经营性收入、工资性收入及国家财政农村救济费支出;(2)已出台的经济刺激计划,既有消费价格补贴等短期措施,也有旨在提高农村居民收入、完善农村社会保障、优化农村消费环境的长期性政策,时于促进农村消费具有很强的针对性;(3)未来促进农村居民消费仍需继续着眼于各种长期性政策.国家在加大财政支农力度时,应注重提高农林水事业费以外的支农支出比重;(4)县域经济是启动农村消费的关键.未来的政策着力点可以考虑将启动农村消费与发展县域经济、推动城乡一体化发展相结合.     

对发展中国农村土地金融的思考

农村土地金融业务的发展离不开土地制度的支撑,通过国外及国内农村土地金融发展情况的对比分析,总结出中国农村土地金融发展迟缓的根本原因——不完善的土地制度。又从土地产权残缺、土地抵押权不完整、土地流转机制不健全方面对土地制度是如何影响农村土地金融发展的作出了详细论述,最后,对中国现行的土地制度在产权、抵押权、流转机制方面的改革,做出总结。     

Which Type of Urbanization Better Matches China＇s Factor Endowment： A Comparison of Population-Intensive Old Puxi and Land-Capital-Intensive New Pudong

Based on a comparative study of New-Pudong （East Shanghai） and Old-Puxi （West Shanghai） in their respective ability to absorb rural migrants, the very essence of urbanization, this paper finds that, constrained by the current hukou （household registration） system and land tenure system, although New-Pudong has emerged as one of the most modernized urban areas in the world, it did so under an urbanization model that is government-dominant and characterized by high land-intensity and capital-intensity. This model represents a serious mismatch in terms of China＇s factor endowment that is characterized with a large but relatively poor rural population. In sharp contrast, guided by the market mechanism under private land ownership and free migration, Old-Puxi emerged as an urbanization model that was very adaptable to China＇s factor endowment and stage of development. Therefore, as a model of endogenous urbanization, Old-Puxi is more efficient and inclusive, at the same time more sustainable economically and environmentally, and for this reason more applicable to China at a time when China needs to urbanize most of its rural population urgently to avoid the further worsening of the rural/urban divide and income disparity.     

户籍制度、就业机会与中国城乡居民收入差距

笔者通过实证研究认为,拥有城镇户口显著地有利于劳动者进入高收入行业,造成城镇居民在收入和福利待遇方面比农村居民显著要高,户籍制度下的机会不平等是造成城乡居民收入差距的重要原因。同时,在控制了影响劳动者就业选择的控制变量的情况下,研究的主要结论依然稳健。研究的政策启示是应该继续改革户籍制度,努力消除户籍制度对劳动者就业选择的不利影响,进而不断缩小城乡收入差距,促进城乡和谐与均衡发展。     

永佃制的起源:演化博弈理论的解释

本文运用演化博弈理论对永佃制的起源进行研究,探讨现阶段我国衣地制度改革的路径选择。研究发现永佃制是从民间习俗逐步演化而来,演化过程是地主和佃户为了响应外部环境变化所产生的潜在利润而进行的动态博弈。得到的启示：中国农地制度改革的路径选择是国家所有,农民永佃。为此应该限制政府权力,提高农民组织能力和可行能力;正确认识永佃制与土地兼并的关系;重视习俗、惯例等非正式制度安排在制度变迁中的作用。     

Post-Earthquake Land Appropriations and the Dispossession of Rural Women in Haiti

ABSTRACT

This study examines the trajectory of rural women’s labor in the wake of post-earthquake land appropriations in Haiti. Drawing on ethnographic field research conducted between 2010 and 2013, it explores gendered access to land in Haiti in both historical and contemporary contexts, paying attention to the nature of rural gender relations and how they influence women’s access to land and their roles in petty commerce. The study describes the stratification of rural market women, their lived experience, and how losing land access will affect their traditional roles as market women. Ultimately it argues that without access to land, and a paucity of available wage work, recent dispossession will intensify existing vulnerabilities for rural women and narrow their means of household production by forcing them to depend on informal market activity in their roles as machann (market women).     

城乡统筹制度的逆向安排及其矫正

城乡协调一体化的发展源于我们的户籍制度、社会保障制度、就业制度、农村土地制度与财税制度的创新与安排。推进城乡经济社会一体化的实质是统筹配置城乡资源,实现各种资源的有效合理流动,破除城乡二元结构的制度设计与安排。现实中的一些制度逆向安排,成为阻碍我国城乡统筹发展的深层次原因,要实现城乡统筹发展,必须打破这一逆向制度安排,实现城乡一体化制度的再选择。     

The Possibility and Approaches to an Upper Middle Growth Rate

This article discusses the challenges facing China’s economy and assesses the likelihood of China falling into the “middle-income trap.” In the view of this author, an upper middle growth rate of 6.5% to 7% can be achieved if China undertakes further economic reforms in the areas of agriculture, household registration system, urbanization and social insurance system.     

ICT adoption and income diversification among rural households in China

ABSTRACT

Although the determinants of income diversification have been widely examined in the literature, little is known about whether and how information and communication technology (ICT) adoption affects household income diversification. To fill in this gap, this paper examines the impact of ICT adoption on income diversification among rural households in China, utilizing open-access data collected through the China Labour-force Dynamics Survey project. We employ a two-stage treatment effects model to address the potential selection bias issue associated with ICT adoption. The empirical results show that ICT adoption exerts a positive and statistically significant impact on income diversification. Further analyses reveal that ICT adoption is more beneficial to low-income rural households and those residing in eastern and central parts of China when it plays a role in diversifying rural income. Our findings suggest that improving rural education and infrastructure such as roads and broadband facilities can help enhance ICT adoption among rural households, which subsequently increases income diversification.     

根据土地原理评价中国近现代农村土地使用制度

首先推导合乎自然法则的土地产权理论,即"土地原理".然后在对近现代中国土地使用制度的转移过程进行回顾的前提下,按照已推导的土地原理,对近现代中国农村土地使用制度是否符合土地原理,进行了分析.并进一步指出如何完善现行家庭联产承包责任制.