The sustainability and transition of economic growth in China：from a perspective of factor structure

After more than 20 years＇ high speed growth, the sustainable growth of Chinese economy faces serious limitation of resources and factors now and in the future. In order to maintain the economic growth. China has to trans-form the way of economic growth, Based on the analysis on the related theories of economic growth and the structural transformation in factors of production, this paper proposes that the transformation of the economic growth way has to impel the optimization and the promotion of the utilization structure of factors of production. Finall.v, based on the analysis of the necessity to change the pattern of economic growth, this paper proposes＇ the strategic measures to promote the continuous economic growth and the transformation of patterns of economic growth.     

The relationship between insurance and economic growth in Europe: a theoretical and empirical analysis

The role of insurance companies, although growing in importance in financial intermediation, has received less attention than bank and stock markets and if so, mainly as a provider of risk transfer in single country or very heterogeneous samples. We investigate both the impact of insurance investment and premiums on GDP growth in Europe. We conduct a cross-country panel data analysis from 1992 to 2005 for 29 European countries. We find a positive impact of life insurance on GDP growth in the EU-15 countries, Switzerland, Norway and Iceland. For the New EU Member States from Central and Eastern Europe, we find a larger impact for liability insurance. Furthermore our findings emphasise the impact of the real interest rate and the level of economic development on the insurance-growth nexus. We argue that the insurance sector needs to be paid more attention in financial sector analysis and macroeconomic policy.

揭示"制度与增长关系之谜"的一个研究视角——基于中国经济转型与经济增长关系的实证研究(1978-2004)

本文通过对中国经济转型与经济增长之间的实证研究,发现经济增长是直接推动经济体制转型深化的内在动力,而经济转型虽然对经济增长有长期的影响作用,但这种作用却不是决定性的.在制度与增长二者关系中,制度虽然是影响增长的长期重要因素,但这种影响却不是决定性的;而恰恰相反,增长对制度的影响却是决定性的.这说明制度创新在增长的大背景中更易达到,而中国改革成功的经验也充分证明了这一点.     

经济增长与中拉贸易合作

近年来，中国和拉关地区的贸易额迅速增长。本文介绍了中拉贸易现状及贸易基础，重点对经济增长和中拉贸易合作之间的关系进行了分析。     

Unemployment and the dynamics of political support for economic reforms

I analyze the dynamics of political support for economic reforms using a version of Rodrik's (1995) two-sector model of the transition economy. The key role is played by the pattern of flows between the state and private sectors and unemployment. It is shown that while the workers in the private sector always support rapid reforms, the workers in the state sector and the unemployed will support rapid reforms only at the outset of the transition. Later, state-sector workers and unemployed vote for a reduction in the speed of reforms.     

Trade integration and the EU economic membership criteria

The purpose of this paper is to consider whether the European Union (EU)'s economic membership criteria for the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) and Cyprus (the Candidate Countries) are fulfilled. To this end, I examine the actual and potential levels of trade between the Candidate Countries and the EU countries using the gravity model. The results show a high degree of trade integration between all Candidate Countries and the EU, indicating that the Candidate Countries would not face any serious difficulties in coping with the competitive pressure and market forces within the Union in the medium term. The European Commission, however, suggested the contrary for some of the Candidate Countries in its opinions of 1997.     

The relationship between policies and growth in transition countries

This paper combines Hendry’s general to specific procedure and Leamer’s Extreme Bounds analysis to assess the robustness of the relationship between growth in transition countries and a set of variables included in other studies. The results indicate a robust relationship between inflation and growth. A significant long–term effect of liberalization on growth is not found, which throws doubt on previous empirical studies of the relationship between liberalization and growth. However, the long–term benefits from liberalization may be indirect, via macro stability. Robustness tests also throw doubt on the effect of fiscal and exchange rate policies on growth. JEL classification: P24, P41, C23.     

中国经济增长的特征、可持续性与潜在增长率估算:一个综述

在本文通过对中国经济增长的表现特征、可持续性和潜在增长率估算三方面的理论综述,进一步论述了中国经济增长的发展脉络,并在此基础上提出研究中国经济增长理论尚需改进的空间.     

制度转型、经济增长和交易费用——来自中国各省市的经验分析

交易费用的测量是新制度经济学里面最核心的问题。中国的制度转型及其经济增长为检验新制度经济学的核心理论提供了很好的样本。本文力争在国内外文献的基础上做出如下贡献。第一,我们采用沃利斯和诺思（Wallis,North,1986）的基本思路,首次对中国各省的交易费用进行了测算。第二,我们对制度转型、经济增长和中国的交易费用的关系进行了实证分析,发现制度转型降低了中国的交易费用,证实了好的制度就是节约交易费用;但是经济增长却没有显著地促进交易费用的增加,这与正统的新制度经济理论预期不符;第三,我们证实了交易也存在一定的规模效应,当市场上的交易费用达到一定的程度时,由于规模效应可能会节省每笔交易的交易费用,从而导致每笔交易的交易费用减少。     

财政分权与经济增长关系的文献综述

近年来,伴随着我国财政分权实践的不断推进,财政分权理论研究得到众多学者的重视。有关财政分权的理论文献可谓是汗牛充栋,其中不乏对财政分权后果的研究,财政分权与经济增长关系的理论研究和经验研究更是研究的热点之一。但是,相关研究并没有得出一致的结论,财政分权的利弊之争持续不断。因此,有必要对财政分权与经济增长关系的相关文献进行总结和评述,进而获取有益的启发。     

Book production and the onset of modern economic growth

We provide a new data set on per capita book production as a proxy for advanced literacy skills, and assess this relative to other measures. While literacy proxies very basic skills, book production per capita is an indicator for more advanced capabilities. Growth theory suggests that human capital formation plays a significant role in creating the ‘wealth of nations.’ This study tests whether human capital formation has an impact on early-modern growth disparities. In contrast to some previous studies which denied the role of human capital as a crucial determinant of long-term growth, we confirm its importance.      

从中苏改革比较看我国改革开放30周年

中国和苏联在社会主义发展历程中都曾为加快社会进步不断探索,但苏联在改革途中逐渐偏离并抛弃马克思主义,最终走上绝路,而我国自1978年开始的改革开放却逐渐探索出中国特色的社会主义发展模式,中国之路越走越宽广。正确认识中苏改革的异同,科学评价中苏两国的改革,对未来社会发展的认知具有重要参照价值。     

Tax-spending policies and economic growth: Theoretical predictions and evidence from the OECD

We present an endogenous growth model to study the growth effects of the composition of government expenditure and the associated tax burden. When we use data from a set of 23 OECD countries during 1970–2000, our econometric results support the predictions of the theory. The share of productive government expenditure is associated with higher growth, and this result is more robust when we use effective average tax rates and statutory tax rates as measures of the tax burden. With respect to the tax burden, different tax rates have different growth effects.     

The allocation of volatile aid and economic growth: Theory and evidence

We analyse, both theoretically and empirically, the growth effects associated with two components of volatile foreign financial assistance: ‘directly productive’ (or ‘tied’) aid and ‘pure’ aid. We find that scenarios in which aid can hurt the recipient's growth rate emerge only in cases where foreign aid is volatile. As a result, we conclude that it is only in conjunction with the presence of aid variability that aid allocation determines whether foreign aid hurts or promotes long-run growth.     

中国转型期经济波动的制度变迁解说

中国经济波动带有典型的转型期特点,经济体制转型的长期性和渐进性蕴含了经济的结构性特征,导致这一时期经济波动体现出鲜明的转型期特征:通货紧缩和经济过热交替出现;三次产业结构波幅不一、上游产业过热与下游产业萧条并存;价格传导时滞延长、传导程度减弱、总体价格水平上升有限.     

哈耶克诘难、权威转变与经济成长:中国分权式改革的逻辑

中国的分权式改革一定是做对了什么才产生了我们见到的经济奇迹,那是什么呢?中国的分权式改革从事实上回应了哈耶克诘难,即信息和知识的分散性使得计划体制不可能实现其理想状态。通过经济上放权让利和政治上的集权,调动社会各阶层的能动性,使得权威和信息相匹配,形成了有效的层级分工创新体制,从而实现经济成长。由于分工的深化和经济活动的扩展,经济分权体现出必然性。在这一过程中,每一个分立的个体都凭借个体知识在分工体系中分享收益,因而实现了共享式的发展,从自由的角度看,个体的自由也得到了极大的扩展。如果要释放更多的经济增长潜力,进一步的改革是必需的。     

How Much Will It Cost to Join the Club? The Extra Costs of Approximating Lithuanian Environmental Laws with Those of the European Union

This paper presents estimates of costsassociated with approximating Lithuanianenvironmental protection legislation with thatof the European Union (EU). Lithuania is oneof twelve EU associate members in Central andEastern Europe that is currently preparing foraccession by approximating their legislationwith that of the EU. The costs of fifteen EUdirectives are considered and details are givenon four directives. Necessary investments maytotal Euro 1500 million by 2015 and the presentvalue of all annualized costs is expected to beabout Euro 2200 million. In 2015, annualized costsare estimated to be approximately Euro 500 million,but these costs are only part of the totalcosts of approximation. Non-environmentalcosts are not considered. Assuming a modestlyambitious average annual growth of GDP of 2.0%per year implies that approximation with thefifteen directives analyzed will cost roughly3.5% of GDP in 2015. This level of additional commitment to environmentalprotection is itself much higher than the 2.0%of GDP being spent on average by OECD countriesand suggests the possibility of a substantialeconomic burden on the Lithuanian economy. Public budgets and households are expected tocarry a substantial portion of this cost,because many directives are the responsibilityof national and local governments. Making theright choices that are expected to be part ofapproximation with the environmental acquis is likely to benefit from carefulcomparisons of costs and willingness to pay forthe environmental benefits of approximation.     

Information technology, organizational form, and transition to the market

The paper reviews theories of information technology adoption and organizational form and applies them to an empirical analysis of firm choices and characteristics in four transition economies: Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia. We argue that two major structural changes have occurred, one concerning technology and another concerning firm ownership and boundaries, and we consider how each change may have affected the other. We estimate the impact of firm size, integration, and ownership on new information technology adoption and the impact of information technology on changes in firm boundaries and ownership, using a sample survey of 330 firms.     

中国股票市场发展与经济增长的实证研究

本文运用Johansen协整检验、格兰杰因果检验等计量经济学方法,通过分析我国近年来宏观数据及股市规模、流动性和波动性的季度数据,对中国股票市场发展与经济增长的关系进行了计量学检验。得出的结论是：总体上,中国股票市场和经济增长之间存在长期的均衡关系,经济增长对股市的发展具有一定促进作用,但股票市场对经济增长的作用十分有限。