加工贸易对福建省经济增长影响的实证分析

阐述了福建省加工贸易发展的现状,利用1987—2009年福建省的相关数据,对福建省加工贸易增长率、加工贸易对经济增长的拉动度和贡献度进行了描述性统计分析;构建了加工贸易对福建经济增长影响的二元线性回归方程。研究结果显示:1987年以来,福建加工贸易增值率总体呈上升态势,福建加工贸易水平有所提升;加工贸易对福建经济增长总体上具有正面的拉动、促进作用;福建省加工贸易净出口额每增加1亿元,该省GDP将增加3.553亿元。     

净出口对中国经济增长贡献的测度与分析

净出口对经济增长贡献份额和净出口拉动经济增长百分点两个指标的发展变化显示,对外贸易对我国经济增长的贡献有限,而且波动剧烈.未来我国贸易政策改革的重点,应该是强化净出口对经济增长贡献的持续性和稳定性.     

基于VAR模型的我国加工贸易和经济增长关系的实证分析

近年来加工贸易快速发展,促进了我国对外贸易和经济的增长,但目前国内外学者对加工贸易贡献作用的看法不一。本文通过VAR模型对我国加工贸易出口、加工贸易进口与我国GDP增长做了动态的实证分析,得出相关结论：加工贸易出口与加工贸易进口长期都会促进GDP的增长,但促进作用并不显著。因此,进一步加快加工贸易的升级转型,加大对经济增长的拉动作用是促进我国经济增长,加快我国经济增长转变方式的重要内容。     

浅议加工贸易对中国经济发展的作用

伴随着我国经济的发展,加工贸易已成为我国主要的对外贸易方式之一,对我国的经济增长起了巨大的推动作用,为我国参与全球贸易作出了显著贡献.而随着我国经济结构的优化和比较优势的逐渐转变,加工贸易对我国经济的积极作用受到了质疑.因此,目前,正确地评估加工贸易对我国经济的作用以及确定其发展方向显得尤为重要.本文将简要回顾我国加工贸易发展的历程,总结我国加工贸易的基本特点,客观分析加工贸易对我国经济的作用和影响,对我国加工贸易未来的发展提出建议.     

浅议加工贸易对中国经济发展的作用

伴随着我国经济的发展,加工贸易已成为我国主要的对外贸易方式之一,对我国的经济增长起了巨大的推动作用,为我国参与全球贸易作出了显著贡献。而随着我国经济结构的优化和比较优势的逐渐转变,加工贸易对我国经济的积极作用受到了质疑。因此,目前,正确地评估加工贸易对我国经济的作用以及确定其发展方向显得尤为重要。本文将简要回顾我国加工贸易发展的历程,总结我国加工贸易的基本特点,客观分析加工贸易对我国经济的作用和影响,对我国加工贸易未来的发展提出建议。     

净出口对2010年经济增长的拉动作用分析

今年以来我国出口强劲增长,但与此同时进口增长也迅速上升,增速超过了出口,结果导致贸易顺差急剧减少。但由于受价格和汇率因素的影响,今年贸易顺差的变化不能准确反映货物和服务净出口实际变化情况。经计算表明,今年1-7月我国贸易顺差下降21.2%,而实际货物净出口却上升了62.7%,两者出现了完全相反方向的变化。预计2010年全年我国贸易顺差将为932亿美元左右,比上年下降52%,净减少1050亿美元。但货物和服务净出口将为正增长,比上年增长14.2%,拉动经济正增长0.56个百分点,考虑到我国服务贸易逆差仍在扩大,向下拉动GDP约0.06个百分点,则2010年货物和服务净出口增长拉动经济正增长0.5个百分点。     

贸易方式对中国经济增长影响的比较分析

本文利用出口扩展模型,比较分析了一般贸易与加工贸易两种贸易方式对我国经济增长的影响。研究结果发现:一般贸易出口增长显著促进经济增长,一般贸易进口增长则阻碍经济增长,但不显著;而加工贸易进出口的增长则显著弱化了中国经济增长,其贡献度低于一般贸易出口。鉴于此,本文认为加工贸易产业转型势在必行,转型的根本途径是提高国内采购率。     

加工贸易对浙江省经济发展作用的研究——基于1992—2008年数据的实证分析

加工贸易对浙江省经济增长有着不可忽视的作用。文章首先分析加工贸易对经济增长影响的作用机制,并综合运用加工贸易增速分析、加工贸易进出口弹性、加工贸易增值系数、加工贸易对浙江省GDP的贡献度及线性回归等方法来分析加工贸易对浙江经济增长的作用。结果显示,浙江省加工贸易对经济增长具有重要贡献,加工贸易额每增长1万美元,GDP将增长0.705303万美元;出口额每增长1万美元,GDP将增长0.545755万美元;进口额每增长1万美元,GDP将增长0.120135万美元。     

加工贸易与经济增长关系的实证研究——以我国沿海地区6省市为例

利用我国沿海地区6省市的面板数据,对加工贸易活动与经济增长的关系进行了实证研究。结果表明,加工贸易对沿海地区经济增长有着积极和显著的影响;消费对经济增长的边际影响超过了投资因素已成为拉动经济增长的重要动力。     

净出口的非线性增长贡献——基于1995—2011年中国省级面板数据的实证考察

计量经济学有关净出口同经济增长相关关系性质的已有研究,本质上是从国民收入核算语境中需求一侧展开的且被定义为经典的线性关系。本文尝试从供给侧纳入贸易要素进而实现增长核算模型的拓展,并根据数学理论和方式构建GDP同净出口依存度之间非线性关系的多层次识别准则。基于所构建的理论模型,本文采用1995—2011年中国省级面板数据,运用时空相关面板数据模型,实证检验了净出口与经济增长的非线性关系及其区域异质性表现;依据其非线性关系的数学性质,讨论了净出口作用于经济增长速度的临界转变点和推动实际经济增长的闭区间形式,结果还发现经济开放度决定净出口作用于经济增长作用区间的地区差异,同时延展净出口推动经济增长的历史轨迹。其政策含义是,相对地扩大进口不仅可以推动对外贸易趋向平衡,而且还将有助于经济增长。     

Tourism,trade and growth: the case of Cyprus

Although the relationship between international trade and economic growth has found a wide application area in the literature over the years, this can not be said about tourism and growth or trade and tourism. This study employs the bounds test for cointegration and Granger causality tests to investigate a long-run equilibrium relationship between tourism, trade and real income growth, and the direction of causality among themselves for Cyprus. Results reveal that tourism, trade and real income growth are cointegrated; thus, a long-run equilibrium relationship can be inferred between these three variables. On the other hand, Granger causality test results suggest that real income growth stimulates growth in international trade (both exports and imports) and international tourist arrivals to the island. Furthermore, growth in international trade (both exports and imports) also stimulates an increase in international tourist arrivals to Cyprus. And finally, real import growth stimulate growth in real exports in the case of Cyprus.     

Time-Series Wage Differential in Taiwan: The Role of International Trade

Rising relative wages between skilled and unskilled workers in developed countries has been a popular subject of recent studies. This paper analyzes Taiwan, a semi-developed economy, where the relative wage reveals a declining trend since the mid-1980s. The authors study the role of international trade. A major point of departure is to distinguish the effects of net exports to OECD countries from those to non-OECD countries. The paper also differentiates the effects of net exports to China from those to non-OECD countries except China. It is found that net exports to the OECD countries raise the relative wage of skilled workers, whereas net exports to non-OECD countries and China diminish the relative wage. Moreover, the impacts of net exports to China are much larger than those to OECD and other non-OECD countries. The documented wage effects of international trade in this work diverge from what existing works have argued based on Heckscher–Ohlin theory.     

国际友好城市与中国出口贸易*

作为正式协议和制度安排的重要补充，缔结国际友好城市关系加强了中外城市之间的信任和深层次交流，成为国际经济合作的重要催化剂和助推器。本文从外贸高质量发展视角切入，基于2002—2015年287个中国城市与136个国家或地区的匹配对数据，考察了国际友好城市形成的“朋友圈”是否以及如何影响城市间的出口贸易。研究发现：（1）缔结国际友好城市协议使得中国城市出口量和出口额分别提高了100%和116%。（2）国际友好城市的贸易促进效应更多源于贸易创造而非贸易转移。（3）除了影响出口集约边际，国际友好城市还从产品种类数和高技术行业所占比例等方面促进了出口扩展边际。（4）以非典和全球金融危机作为事件冲击，国际友好城市协议在一定程度上增强了中国城市出口的风险抵抗能力。（5）异质性分析结果表明，国际友好城市协议对非“一带一路”倡议国家与地理邻近国家或地区的出口促进效应更明显。以上结果得到了一系列稳健性检验的支持。本文的研究有助于全面认识国际友好城市的经济内涵以及探讨外贸高质量发展的新路径。     

Learning from processing trade: Firm evidence from China

Processing export plays a significant role in international trade. In this paper, focusing on firm-level dynamics, we show that firms learn from their processing export experience to improve their subsequent ordinary export outcomes. Using transaction-level trade data and firm-level production data, we show that firms’ ordinary export performance, at both extensive and intensive margins, is enhanced by their own processing experience. Firms also export products with improved quality after engaging in processing exports of similar products. Furthermore, we investigate potential channels through which firms learn from processing experience. We find that firms potentially learn from processing experience to enhance production efficiency, to better understand how to improve product appeal to cater to specific markets, and to gain better and easier access to inputs. Moreover, we find that exporters benefit more from processing experience for larger markets with fiercer competition. Similarly, stronger learning effects are also observed when processing experience is associated with products that embody less diffused knowledge and are more differentiated. Also, firms learn more from processing experience when they are more actively engaged in processing imports. Lastly, we verify the economic significance and quantify the importance of these potential channels.     

“Measurement” or Finding Things Out in Economics: A Comment

Immiserizing growth is a long-term phenomenon that occurs when the gain in a country's social welfare arising from economic growth is more than offset by the loss in such welfare associated with an adverse shift in the terms of trade. In one case explored many years ago by Jagdish Bhagwati, immiserizing growth occurs in a developing nation that has started economic growth but faces unfavorable international demand conditions as it increases its traditional exports. In another case explored recently by Paul A. Samuelson, immiserizing growth occurs for the growing industrialized country when its trade partner follows a policy of import substituting growth and, as a result, shifts the terms of trade against the exporting country. Still others have specified a variety of different cases of immiserizing growth. The author provides a simple graphical method to analyze these situations and then presents data showing that immiserizing growth is a relatively rare phenomenon.     

Export sophistication and economic growth: Evidence from China

We consider the effect of export sophistication on economic performance by appealing to regional variation within one single country (China) over the 1997-2009 period. We find evidence in support of Hausmann, Hwang and Rodrik (2007), in that regions specializing in more sophisticated goods subsequently grow faster. We find substantial variation in export sophistication at the province and prefecture level, controlling for the level of development, and that this sophistication in turn drives growth. Our results suggest that these gains are limited to the ordinary export activities undertaken by domestic firms: no direct gains result from either processing trade activities or foreign firms, even though these are the main contributors to the global upgrading of China's exports. As such, the extent of assembly trade and foreign entities should be distinguished in order to measure the true movement in a country's technology and the contribution of exports to economic growth.     

Sources of Comparative Advantages in Brazil

Based on the Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek model, the authors investigate relative factor abundance in Brazil, as revealed by its international trade. They study two different time periods: one characterized by high trade barriers (1980–85) and the trade liberalization period (1990–95). Two alternative methodologies are used: the estimation of factor intensity regressions on net exports and the direct computation of factor content in net exports. In the factor intensity regression, the authors incorporate technological changes that might have occurred over time, and these turn out to be significant. Both methods yield the same results: the Brazilian international trade reveals relative abundance in capital, land, and unskilled labor, and scarcity in skilled labor, with qualitatively equivalent results for the two time periods studied.     

Pros and cons of official dollarization in Eastern Europe

The balance of payments barrier is the biggest obstacle to growth in Eastern Europe. This problem stems from the existence of individual national currencies which dynamically increases the risk associated with capital inflows. Capital inflow leads to both domestic growth and domestic currency real appreciation, reducing net exports to a level insufficient to service international debt obligations stemming from capital inflow. To avoid losses when capital flows are reversed, high domestic interest rates are required to stem capital outflow. Result is the decline of domestic economic activity. Adoption of foreign currency eliminates the need for net exports as the source of revenue needed to service debt obligation, hence it renders the balance of payments as an obstacle to sustained capital flows and economic growth irrelevant.     

Measuring Vertical Specialization: The Case of China

The explosive growth of Chinese trade may be due to international production fragmentation, but few have assessed these phenomena together, in part, because it is difficult to measure the vertical specialization (VS) of China's trade. Unique features of China's processing trade cause both identification of imported inputs and their allocation across sectors to vary by trade regime. This paper estimates the VS of Chinese merchandise exports, addressing these two challenges. A new method to identify Chinese imported inputs is developed, and used to calculate VS by sector and destination. VS estimates based on the official Chinese input–output table are contrasted with those based on a split table, capturing processing and normal exports separately. Last, the paper tests whether Chinese “export sophistication” can be explained by VS.