The socio-economic determinants of COVID-19: A spatial analysis of German county level data

The study explores the association of socioeconomic, demographic, and health-related variables at the regional level with COVID-19 related cases and deaths in Germany during the so-called first wave through mid-June 2020. Multivariate spatial models include the 401 counties in Germany to account for regional interrelations and possible spillover effects. The case and death numbers are, for example, significantly positively associated with early cases from the beginning of the epidemic, the average age, the population density and the share of people employed in elderly care. By contrast, they are significantly negatively associated with the share of schoolchildren and children in day care as well as physician density. In addition, significant spillover effects on the case numbers of neighbouring regions were identified for certain variables, with a different sign than the overall effects, giving rise to further future analyses of the regional mechanisms of action of COVID-19 infection. The results complement the knowledge about COVID-19 infection beyond the clinical risk factors discussed so far by a socio-economic perspective at the ecological level.     

跨国公司技术溢出对海正药业的影响

吸收先进技术溢出是促进企业发展的关键因素。随着跨国公司纷纷来华设厂,国内企业更多的是接受到了负向的技术溢出,遭受了市场份额丧失和人才流失的双重打击。海正药业则始终坚持高比例R&D研发投入和产品发展策略,重视挖掘、培养、留住人才,先后获得了多个国内外认证,积极进行国际合作,吸收了大量先进的技术溢出,取得了快速的发展。     

Sibling spillover effects in school achievement

This paper provides empirical evidence on sibling spillover effects in school achievement using administrative data on 230,000 siblings in England. We extend previous strategies to identify peer effects by exploiting the variation in school test scores across subjects observed at ages 11 and 16 as well as variation in peer quality between siblings. We find a statistically significant positive spillover effect from the older to the younger sibling. Sibling spillovers account for a non‐negligible proportion of the attainment gap between low‐ and higher income pupils in England.     

客户数字化转型与企业非效率投资：协同治理还是嬗变失配

将客户数字化转型行为决策纳入企业非效率投资的研究框架中,利用2007—2019年中国深沪A股上市公司披露的前五大客户数据,检验发现：客户数字化转型对企业非效率投资存在正向溢出效应,并且这种正向溢出主要表现为抑制企业过度投资,该结果在一系列稳健性检验后依然成立。进一步研究发现,信息协同和高管治理是客户数字化转型改善企业非效率投资的两个作用渠道,从而证实数字溢出存在协同治理效果。此外,当客企关系性质良好、客企数字差距较大、企业融资约束较高时,客户数字化转型对企业非效率投资的改善效果更好。研究结论不仅肯定了客户数字化转型引致的数字溢出能够改善企业非效率投资,为缓解企业间供需矛盾提供了解决思路;而且发现并验证了供应链数字溢出的协同治理效果,加深了各界对供应链数字溢出的学术认知,具有现实意义和理论价值。     

MNEs,technological efforts and channels of export spillover: An analysis of Indian manufacturing industries

The present study provides some empirical evidence for the export spillover effect examining the case of an emerging market economy, namely India, using firm level data for the period 1994–2006. We disentangle different spillover channels, namely the demonstration effect, the imitation effect (R&D spillover) and a proxy to measure spillover effects coming from higher MNEs’ skills. We also account for the heterogeneous technological behaviour of local firms considering how in-house R&D efforts and disembodied technological imports may affect the exporting performance. Our findings show how export spillover effects are mainly mediated by an imitation effect, contrary to the case of other emerging market economies like China, where a demonstration effect is evident. We also recognise that both the decision to export and export intensity are influenced most of all by the technological activities of local firms. Moreover, the findings of the analysis suggest that in-house R&D is more relevant than other external sources of technological knowledge such as disembodied technology imports to internalise the positive spillover effect emanating from MNEs.     

The income redistribution effects of Medicaid: Application in New York State

The efficacy of Medicaid as an income redistribution mechanism among New York State counties was examined to determine tthe degree of income shifting from higher to lower income counties. A sample of 21 counties, grouped into four discrete income classes according to 1970 per capita income was taken.Costs and expenditures (attributed to Medicaid) were allocated over all counties, adjusting for federal and state aid transfers. The data were tabulated for each of the 21 counties and six key ratios (including: Medicaid expenditures per authorized recipient, etc.) were developed as measures of income distribution.The impact of Medicaid was tested using two independent statistical techniques, goodness of fit and pooled comparisons between each pair of means for each ratio. Results indicated that no appreciable shift in income from high to low counties existed. Medicaid failed 45 of 72 mean difference tests, and the true distribution of costs and expenditures across income classes did not differ significantly from a uniform distribution in 77.7% of the cases.The results indicate that the mandated funding structure of Medicaid impinges more severely on poorer counties. Lack of an adequate health care infra-structure may seriously limit the ability of lower income counties to provide care even with Medicaid covering a large share of medical costs.     

The determinants of nursing home costs in Nebraska's proprietary nursing homes.

In the past few years nursing home care expenditures in Nebraska and the U.S. have been the fastest growing component of total health care expenditures. This rate of increase is particularly alarming in view of the fact that nursing home care is financed primarily by the Medicaid program or direct out-of-pocket payments. In fact, given the cutbacks in federal and state funds for this program, consumers will be forced to allocate a larger share of their income to meet the costs of nursing home care. Although nursing home expenditures have grown at an extremely rapid rate, relatively few empirical studies exist which analyze the cost function of nursing home providers. The purpose of this study is to identify factors which have directly influenced the cost of nursing home care in Nebraska and to evaluate the current Nebraska Medicaid reimbursement system in terms of its impact upon nursing home costs. The study was limited to a sample of 40 nursing homes in Nebraska which represents 42% of the total proprietary nursing homes in the state. The sample was limited to those facilities licensed only as an Intermediate Care Facility--I and they had to be receiving some Medicaid revenue. The data were averaged over the period of 1977-79, but the year of analysis corresponded to 1978. Multiple regression analysis was used to measure the effect of the hypothesized independent variables upon two different measures of cost--the average total cost per patient day and the average variable cost per patient day. In the first regression model 76% of the variance was explained and 71% was explained in the second equation. The results of this analysis are basically consistent with the findings of other studies and indicate that the number of staffing hours, patient mix, facility age, administrator experience and administrative intensity are significant determinants of nursing home costs. The most important finding from a policy perspective is that the current retrospective cost-related Medicaid reimbursement system does not provide incentives for minimizing costs. In fact, the present system encourages administrators to overutilize resources and charge higher prices. Considerable evidence exists which suggests that a prospective system would encourage a more efficient allocation of resources without adversely affecting the quality of care. Given the increase in the state's share of the total Medicaid budget, it would appear that a change to a prospective system is critical in order to maintain the financial accessibility to nursing home care by all Nebraska residents.     

Physician Incentives and Treatment Choice

I analyze the impact of physician competition for patients on treatment selection and an insurer's ability to induce its preferences through a supply‐side payment mechanism. Informed patients choose the physician whose treatment practice best fits their preferences, aligning physician incentives with patient preferences. An insurer's ability to counter these incentives is not monotonic in how informed patients are, however. When demand is either perfectly inelastic to treatment practices because patients are completely uninformed or a sufficient proportion of the market is informed relative to the number of physicians in the market, then an insurer can induce its preferences through supply‐side payment rules. Otherwise, more intensive policy levers such as utilization review must be employed. Programs that increase patient information can therefore improve the efficiency despite generating stronger incentive to treat according to patient preferences. I also explore how noisy signals of illness type and diagnostic testing further complicate the insurer's problem.     

Search Engine Optimization: What Drives Organic Traffic to Retail Sites?

The lion's share of retail traffic through search engines originates from organic (natural) rather than sponsored (paid) links. We use a dataset constructed from over 12,000 search terms and 2 million users to identify drivers of the organic clicks that the top 759 retailers received from search engines in August 2012. Our results are potentially important for search engine optimization (SEO). We find that a retailer's investments in factors such as the quality and brand awareness of its site increases organic clicks through both a direct and an indirect effect. The direct effect stems purely from consumer behavior: The higher the quality of an online retailer, the greater the number of consumers who click its link rather than a competitor in the list of organic results. The indirect effect stems from our finding that search engines tend to place higher quality sites in better positions, which results in additional clicks because consumers tend to click links in more favorable positions. We also find that consumers who are older, wealthier, conduct searches from work, use fewer words, or include a brand name product in their search are more likely to click a retailer's organic link following a product search. Finally, the quality of a retailer's site appears to be especially important in attracting organic traffic from individuals with higher incomes. The beneficial direct and indirect effects of an online retailer's brand equity on organic clicks, coupled with the spillover effects on traffic through other online and traditional channels, leads us to conclude that investments in the quality and brand awareness of a site should be included as part of an SEO strategy.     

Time-varying asymmetric volatility spillover between global markets and China’s A,B and H-shares using EGARCH and DCC-EGARCH models

This paper investigates the volatility spillover and dynamic conditional correlation between three types of China’s shares including A, B and H-shares with 12 major emerging and developed markets from 2002 to 2017 using EGARCH and multivariate DCC-EGARCH models. Both models found that Chinese equities are more related with their neighbouring countries such as Singapore, Japan, Australia and ASEAN-5 than with US, Germany and UK. The EGARCH model, with an auxiliary term added to capture the volatility spillover, found no volatility spillover between A-share markets and other advanced and emerging markets during the GFC and extended-crisis periods while this behaviour is not observed for B-share and H-share markets. However, the multivariate DCC model found strong evidence of contagion effect in both return correlations and volatility spillover for all China’s markets. In addition, both models found increased regional and global integration in A-share and B-share markets but not the H-share market. Finally, the results from both models provide clear evidence of distinct behaviours associated with return and volatility spillover in these three share types, suggesting foreign investors should consider the heterogeneity in volatility spillover and return correlations of these Chinese share types when forming investment strategies.     

Supply chain fragmentation,input–output tables and spillovers from foreign direct investment

The literature on the impact of multinationals on domestic firms' productivity points to supply chain linkages with multinational firms as the main channel for positive spillover effects. Local and multinational firms' relative positions in the supply chain are typically determined through the use of input–output tables. For a panel of Romanian firms, we show that the level of industry aggregation in these tables and the applied spillover definitions bear an important impact on estimated spillover effects. We find that the total impact of foreign presence – irrespective of the channel – is considerably larger when detailed IO-tables are used. When more aggregated tables are used, one is likely to misclassify a considerable number of supplier–client activity as within-industry competitive activity. Including within-industry supply and use in the measures of supplier–client activity results in a further increase of the spillover effect on local suppliers, whereas the within-industry spillover effect disappears.     

上市公司股权结构与现金股利的关系研究——基于股权分置改革前后的对比

文中拟解决的关键问题是分析中国上市公司在股权分置改革前后治理结构的变化及其与股利政策关系的变迁,考察股权分置改革的实施是否显著地削弱了大股东进行资金掏空的“隧道机制”,流通股比例的上升是否抑制了大股东的分红动机,前几大股东合谋进行利益输送的行为是否受到了制约,上市公司的股利分配行为是否更加合理。根据本研究课题的立意所在,文中采用了描述性统计与计量分析相结合的研究方法。经过实证的检验后发现,股权分置改革使得上市公司的分红派现行为更为理性,上述预期均得到一一印证。     

Predicting bankruptcy in the Texas nursing facility industry

Approximately 50% of nursing facilities in Texas petitioned for bankruptcy during the 1998–2004 period. Using a logit regression model tested for robustness, we find nursing facilities that are profit-seekers, chain members, pay higher than average wage rates, accept more intensive-care residents and obtain a larger than average portion of their funding from public sources are highly vulnerable to negative changes in regulatory policy decisions on Medicare and Medicaid reimbursement. Larger facilities having higher than average occupancy rates and quality of care are less susceptible to adverse decisions. The model correctly classifies a facility as either bankrupt or solvent in about 75% of cases. We also examine the duration of bankruptcy using accelerated failure-time models. It appears that the duration of bankruptcy depends on location, out-of-state ownership, length of ownership, volume of resident days supplied, total cost and proportion of revenues from Medicaid.     

Frequent acquirers and management compensation

We find positive contemporaneous, short-, and long-run effects of an increase in the acquisition rate on management compensation. A positive bidirectional causality exists between acquisition frequency and management compensation. A higher firm value is likely to associate with higher acquisition frequency. Acquisition rate has a positive impact on the market share. Acquirers with lower market share are more likely to become frequent acquirers. A causal order follows from lower market share to higher acquisition frequency to higher firm value to higher management compensation. The impact of acquisition frequency on management compensation is higher for value-enhancing acquirers relative to value-destroying acquirers.     

Dynamic volatility connectedness between industrial metal markets

Combined with the spillover framework of Diebold and Yilmaz (2009, 2012, 2014) and the TVP-VAR-SV model of Primiceri (2005), this paper studies the dynamic volatility connectedness between six major industrial metal (i.e., aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc) spot and futures markets. The results show that: (1) The total volatility connectedness between industrial metal spot or futures markets has three obvious cyclical change periods with a higher connectedness level; (2) The net connectedness of zinc and copper with other metals has been at a high positive level for a long time, which indicates the two metal markets dominate the industrial metal market; (3) Zinc exhibits the strongest volatility spillovers, while tin exhibits the weakest volatility spillovers, no matter in spot markets or futures markets; (4) The connectedness of realized skewness and kurtosis have similarity with volatility connectedness but the spillover effects of skewness and kurtosis are not as obvious as the volatility spillover effects.     

公共投资就业效应的一个解释——基于CES生产函数的分析及其检验

本文在分析CES生产函数过程中引入劳动力市场,探讨了公共投资与就业的联系.本文认为,公共投资是通过劳动工资弹性来影响就业的.公共投资增加会引起劳动需求的工资弹性提高,而公共投资的溢出效应则会导致企业实际工资支出水平降低,两方面原因的共同作用引起就业的增长.在此分析基础上,本文用ARDL方法构建了一个多方程模型,并用中国的数据进行了检验.为提高分析的有效性,我们用SUR方法对模型做了系统估计,并进一步通过方程转化对变量的短期波动和长期均衡关系进行了探讨.实证研究发现,中国的公共投资增长在短期减少就业,但长期内对就业有显著的正效应.     

MEASURING SPILLOVER EFFECTS OF SHOCKS TO THE ALASKA ECONOMY: AN INTER-REGIONAL SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRIX (IRSAM) MODEL APPROACH

An inter-regional social accounting matrix (IRSAM) model is used to estimate the spillover effects occurring between economies of two US regions – (i) Alaska, which depends heavily on imports of commodities and factors of production from outside the region, and (ii) the rest of the US (RoUS). Multiplier decomposition is used to calculate intra-regional multipliers and spillover effects between the two regions. Results show that a significant percentage (46.3–70.8%) of the total secondary impacts of a shock to Alaskan industries leaks out of Alaska and flows to the RoUS. An analysis of household multipliers indicates that over 60% of the total secondary effects of an increase in Alaska household income accrues to the RoUS households. Policymakers are concerned with identifying the magnitude, nature, and geographic distribution of economic impacts from the policies they implement. The IRSAM model provides the framework for a better understanding of the intra-regional and spillover effects of policies.     

基于网络视角的产业集群风险研究——以河南省牛肉制品产业集群为例

以河南省牛肉制品产业集群为例,通过对河南省162家企业的实地调查,共收回140份有效问卷,经过实证研究与分析,以网络的视角探讨其产业集群存在风险的原因,并提出深化专业化分工、发挥地理临近优势、加强企业相互联系、共享集群溢出效应等对策建议,旨在引起相关政府部门及相关产业集群企业的重视。