POPULATION AND THE ECONOMY DURING THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION

The changes in population structure currently taking place in both developed and less‐developed nations are part of a very long‐term trend of demographic change that has yet to run its full course. The starting point of this trend is the complete rearrangement of demographic regimes characterised by significant declines in mortality coupled with widespread fertility control. This process started in a small group of European and non‐European societies during the nineteenth century and by the second half of the twentieth century had spread to much of the world. It has brought with it significant economic and social implications for societies affected which have differed by the timing of the transition but not in their basic thrust. Eventually the demographic transition promises to bring with it very rapid and widespread ageing and, within a few decades, world population decline. Some of the long‐term economic implications of this entire process are discussed in this article.     

THE DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND: RETROSPECT AND PROSPECT

The demographic transition, from high to low mortality and fertility, entails several decades during which a country's dependency ratio falls, bringing a demographic dividend to which a third of East Asia's late twentieth‐century economic growth ‘miracle’ has been attributed. Can a similar miracle be expected in sub‐Saharan Africa in the next few decades, or will relentless population pressure prevent this?     

从人口老龄化探析调整徐州市城区生育政策的建议

徐州作为江苏省的人口大市,已经全面步入老龄化社会。人口老龄化对徐州的社会经济发展造成多方面的影响。从中国的情形看,计划生育带来的人口出生率下降是导致人口老化的最主要原因,适当改变生育政策的可以加速或延缓人口老龄化的过程。笔者主张,科学调整徐州主城区生育政策,把现行的追求低生育率政策平稳过渡为"低生育率水平与调控人口年龄结构质量并举"的政策,最大限度地发挥计划生育政策的积极作用,将计划生育政策所带来的消极作用限制在最小的范围内。     

Effects of social and cultural processes on health1

Future advances in the planning and evaluation of health service systems are highly dependent upon the development of a methodology that permits the empirical validation of hypotheses concerning the effects of social and cultural processes on health. In this paper such a methodology has been proposed. A structural model has been developed and analyzed, using the causal modeling technique of path analysis, in which social, economic, and demographic characteristics of New Mexico counties have been related to the infant mortality rate as an index of health. Path coefficients have been estimated from census data and vital statistics. Dynamic programming has been utilized to predict the combined direct and indirect effects on the health of New Mexico's population that would result from changes in the composition of the population.Analysis of the model suggests that these structural characteristics are causally interrelated, with economic factors a major determinant of infant mortality. While urbanization and migration also significantly affect infant mortality rates, education surprisingly is not important causally when compared to other variables, nor is proportion nonwhite when other social and economic factors are taken into account. In contrast, the proportion of Spanish-Americans residing in a county has a rather unexpected effect in that infant mortality rates decline as the proportion of this ethnic group rises. This finding suggests that it is important in health planning to consider cultural factors that may be unique to particular ethnic groups.In general the model building techniques and the algorithms presented here provide a valuable means of generating and testing hypotheses regarding the effects of social and cultural processes on health.     

COMMUTING PATTERNS IN THE OSAKA METROPOLITAN AREA: A GIS-BASED ANALYSIS OF COMMUTER RAIL PASSENGERS

The urban economic growth and suburbanization had increased the number of suburban commuters using rail transit in the Osaka metropolitan area for 40 years since the 1950s. This trend reversed to continuous shrinkage in the 1990s. The reduction in passengers may lead to financial problems for the operators and an increase in railway fares or decline in quality of service. This study investigates the factors responsible for the decline in demand for rail service by analyzing changes in population and commuters using Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and small area statistics linked with locations of urban rail networks. The results indicate that the dispersion of jobs from 1990 to 2000 significantly reduced commutes by rail. Demographic analysis shows that because of low fertility rates and the rapidly aging population the decline in the number of commuters will intensify in coming decades, causing serious financial problems for railway operators.     

Economic downturns and compositional effects in regional population structures by age: a multi-temporal analysis in Greek regions, 1981–2017

Population movements (international and internal migration) and changing fertility and mortality patterns have significantly affected demographic structures. Investigation of the relationship between (evolving) population structures and economic downturns is a key issue in economic demography. Analysis of compositional changes in regional population structures over a sufficiently long time interval may provide an informed knowledge to better understanding of this relationship and the underlying socioeconomic context in European countries. Based on these premises, Greece was considered a paradigmatic case of sequential economic expansions and recessions, impacting the structure of resident population in the last four decades. In this work, changes over time in population structures by age in Greek regions were explored (1981–2017) using a multi-temporal principal component analysis. A diachronic analysis of compositional effects of economic downturns on regional population structures indicates spatially-heterogeneous demographic processes in Greece. The subsequent recession has represented a turning point in Greek demography, consolidating changes in traditional family structures, while stimulating out-migration at younger ages to Northern and Western European regions and containing immigration from developing countries. Metropolitan areas and coastal districts had more rapid population dynamics, while peripheral rural regions experienced more rapid changes towards aging. Population aging had a short-term impact on regional population structures in Greece, with possibly negative consequences for the ability of the country’s economy to recover from crisis.

     

Identifying contextual effective factors on total fertility rate decline in Iran: a qualitative framework-based study

This study was conducted to explain the contextual factors associated with total fertility rate (TFR) decline to help policymakers. A qualitative approach and Leichter contextual analysis framework were applied to conduct this study. The participants were selected using purposive sampling method, and also the interviews continued until data saturation was reached. Individuals with knowledge and perspectives on population policies were included in the study to improve the research credibility. The data validity was achieved by applying the maximum variety in selecting the sample. The results were classified into four groups, including situational, structural, cultural, and environmental factors. Situational factors included political sanctions, drought, and road accidents. Structural factors involved government policies, the absence of monitoring, paying no attention to the required conditions, housing status, employment status, economic status, and other issues. Cultural factors were classified into the seven categories, including divorce, socio-economic development, women's employment, marriage age, urbanization, and other issues and factors included international treaties, and the western influence. Policymakers and administrators in the field of demographic policies can make more accurate strategies to increase TFR by recognizing the causes that reduce fertility with the help of providing the possibility to understand better the factors affecting the TFR decline.

     

Population forecasting theory,methods and assessments of accuracy. The magnitude of error due to different vital processes in population forecasts

The accuracy of population forecasts depends in part upon the method chosen for forecasting the vital rates of fertility, mortality, and migration. Methods for handling the stochastic propagation of error calculations in demographic forecasting are hard to do precisely. This paper discusses this obstacle in stochastic cohort-component population forecasts. The uncertainty of forecasts is due to uncertain estimates of the jump-off population and to errors in the forecasts of the vital rates. Empirically based of each source are presented and propagated through a simplified analytical model of population growth that allows assessment of the role of each component in the total error. Numerical estimates based on the errors of an actual vector ARIMA forecast of the US female population. These results broadly agree with those of the analytical model. This work especially uncertainty in the fertility forecasts to be so much higher than that in the other sources that the latter can be ignored in the propagation of error calculations for those cohorts that are born after the jump-off year of the forecast. A methodology is therefore presented which far simplifies the propagation of error calculations. It is noted, however, that the uncertainty of the jump-off population, migration, and mortality in the propagation of error for those alive at the jump-off time of the forecast must still be considered.     

Residential mobility and the local context: Comparing long-term and short-term spatial trends of population movements in Greece

Residential mobility is a key dimension of population dynamics shaping urban growth and rural development at different spatio-temporal scales. Assuming spatial mobility as increasingly dependent on the intrinsic characteristics of local contexts, the present study investigates long-term and short-term population movements in a European country (Greece), in light of regional urbanization processes and socioeconomic development. A multidimensional analysis of indicators of residential stability and background variables was carried out with the aim at evaluating the influence of local contexts on more general processes of population mobility. Different typologies of spatial mobility associated to factors (directly or indirectly) dependent on demographic dynamics, economic performances and urban cycles were identified. The empirical findings of this study evidence (more or less traditional) paths of internal migration and a latent process of population relocation across metropolitan regions, together with more recent international migrations at both working and retirement age. While short-range population movements were the ultimate result of late suburbanization in Greece, medium- and broad-range mobility consolidated the country's divide in urban and rural areas, evidencing the attractive role of Athens. Spatial direction and intensity of population movements reflect complex socioeconomic transformations, whose knowledge provides innovative visions for a better understanding of future demographic dynamics in Mediterranean Europe.     

IMBALANCE IN CHINA'S SEX RATIO AT BIRTH: A REVIEW

For decades, China's sex ratio at birth (SRB) has risen significantly. This trend was found in different provinces and between different parities. Three direct causes have led to the imbalanced SRB: underreporting of female births, which refers to girls who are alive but are hidden from the census count; high rates of female infanticide, which refers to the killing of female infants shortly after birth; and sex‐selective abortion, which refers to the selective abortion of female fetuses. In addition to these immediate causes, China's One‐Child Policy and the cultural preference for sons constitute underlying causes for the imbalanced SRB. Distortions in the SRB can have serious social and economic consequences, including the loss of potential population growth, a “marriage squeeze,” precipitated social instability, and an aging workforce. However, China can improve the status quo by taking appropriate measures such as relaxing fertility regulations and preventing sex‐selective abortions. Establishing a comprehensive pension system can help address the high SRB in the long run. However, a policy reversing the high SRB may have a negative effect on other demographic factors. China needs to find a way to reverse the SRB without harming other demographic indicators and has to do so soon.     

Stochastic methods in population forecasting

"This paper presents a stochastic version of the demographic cohort-component method of forecasting future population. In this model the sizes of future age-sex groups are non-linear functions of random future vital rates. An approximation to their joint distribution can be obtained using linear approximations or simulation. A stochastic formulation points to the need for new empirical work on both the autocorrelations and the cross-correlations of the vital rates. Problems of forecasting declining mortality and fluctuating fertility are contrasted. A volatility measure for fertility is presented. The model can be used to calculate approximate prediction intervals for births using data from deterministic cohort-component forecasts. The paper compares the use of expert opinion in mortality forecasting with simple extrapolation techniques to see how useful each approach has been in the past. Data from the United States suggest that expert opinion may have caused systematic bias in the forecasts."     

Probabilistic Population Projections for India with Explicit Consideration of the Education-Fertility Link

Among the different sources of uncertainty in population forecasting, uncertain changes in the structure of heterogeneous populations have received little attention so far, although they can have significant impacts. Here we focus on the effect of changes in the educational composition of the population on the overall fertility of the population in the presence of strong fertility differentials by education. With data from India we show that alternative paths of future female enrolment in education result in significantly different total fertility rates (TFR) for the country over the coming decades, even assuming identical fertility trends within each education group. These results from multi-state population projections by education are then translated into a fully probabilistic population projection for India in which the results of alternative education scenarios are assumed to expand the uncertainty range of the future TFR in the total population.
This first attempt to endogenize structural change with respect to education—which is the greatest measurable source of fertility heterogeneity in Asia—has resulted from a larger exercise of the Asian MetaCentre for Population and Sustainable Development Analysis to collect empirical information, scientific arguments as well as informed opinions about likely future population trends in Asia from a large number of population experts in the region. In this process, future changes in the educational composition of the population have been identified as a key driver of future fertility.
The actual probabilistic population projections for India show that with high certainty, the Indian population will continue to grow to about 1.3 billion over the next quarter of a century. After that the uncertainty will get much wider, ranging from a continued strong increase to the beginning of a population decline in India.     

Population policy aspects of the employment of foreigners

The author considers the medium-range and long-term effects of declining fertility in the Federal Republic of Germany, including the consequences for the population, age structure, economy, and social security system. The slight rise in the number of births is attributed to the presence of foreigners, and it is suggested that only a rapid resumption of immigration will assure demographic stability (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

An economic-demographic approach to forecasting national and subnational birth rates

This paper conceptualizes and tests an economic-demographic fertility projection model, founded in the prevailing microeconomic theories of fertility behavior and embracing both economic and demographic determinants. Through a simulataneous system approach, the focus is on the linked decision areas for women concerning marriage, childbearing, employment, carreer and education. National age-race fertility rate projections are generated for the period of 1978–1985. An approach is explored whereby these can be adjusted to subnational levels and this is illustrated for the state of Illinois. The multivariate model appears to capture the key factors affecting fertility. It supports the Easterlin forecast that a turnaround from the steep decline of fertility rates during the past two decades will occur by the early 1980s. However the upturn will be relatively modest though sustained due to strong offsetting forces. The results justify further research on the potential and form of the economic-demographic approach to projecting the direction of fertility at the various geographic levels.     

The demographic effects of income redistribution and accelerated economic growth revisited

The statistical basis of Winegarden's conclusions, i.e., that an egalitarian redistribution of incomes in a typical low-income country would cause a substantial increase in fertility, was examined in detail in that it casts doubt about the validity of all previous econometric studies based on international cross-sectional data. Winegarden's model is reproduced as are his findings. The reexamination of Winegarden's (1984) findings revealed 3 areas which suggest that his conclusions may require modification. In regard to family planning, Winegarden's results indicated that the introduction of a state-supported family planning program would cause a large decline in natality after about a decade. A much weaker relationship emerged when the fertility equation was recomputed using a more appropriate economic method. Further, the results were highly sensitive to changes in the threshold year used to classify countries with regard to family planning programs. It is argued that a qualitative index devised by Mauldin and Berelson (1978) provides a more reliable way to measure the effects of such programs than the binary variable Winegarden used. The use of this index fundamentally altered the findings regarding economic growth and income distribution. According to Winegarden's calculations, faster economic growth would have a pronatal impact in the more economically advanced nations yet help to reduce fertility for those countries in the early stages of development. In contrast, it was found that variations in the rate of economic growth had no discernible impact on natality. Winegarden's results suggested that an egalitarian redistribution of incomes would cause substantial increase in fertility in a typical low-income country, but it was found here that these distributional effects would be fairly modest over a wide range of incomes. Consequently, it appears that any concern about the demographic effects of greater equality in less-developed countries is not well-founded. The potential for reducing natality in the richer nations by means of income redistribution may be overstated by Winegarden's results.     

Time costs,aspirations and the effect of economic growth on German fertility

Recent research has shown strong support for the model of reproductive behavior derived from the new home economics, and it is shown in this discussion that the evidence from the Federal Republic of Germany is consistent with the new home economics model. There is little support for Easterlin's relative economic hypothesis, but there is limited endorsement for model which adds the influence of experience based material aspirations to the new home economics model. Easterlin's relative income model is reviewed before directing attention to the new home economics model and an explanation of fertility movements in West Germany. The new home economics model focuses on the family division of labor between home activities and work outside the home. The marked decline in German fertility during the 1970s is mostly attributable to factors such as expanding women's earning capacities which increased the importance of 2 earner families, who have a different family division of labor and possibly preferences biased towards "quality" of children rather than numbers. Also, real wage growth lagged behind the growth in experience based aspirations, and this drop in relative income is more dramatic if it is presumed that material aspirations are based upon the family's income experienced by a young adult during his/her adolescence, rather than just the father's earnings. The mother's contribution to family income will contribute to her family's actual standard of living and the desired standard of living of her children. The labor force participation rates of married, middle-aged German women increased markedly during the 1st half of the 1950s, thus tending to enhance the increase in the standard of living desired by the young adults reaching marrying and childbearing ages in the mid-1960s. The analysis indicates that if there is not a substantial reduction in the proportion of young married women in the labor force, fertility will move countercyclically. In that there must be some floor to fertility, one should be cautious of using these parameter estimates considerably outside the 1950-1977 period. Nonetheless, the estimates indicate that economic growth will not bring a substantial rise in German fertility, and, outside the unlikely situation of sustained economic decline, fertility will remain low.     

Shrinking Cities,Shrinking Households,or Both?

Household size decline accounts for a substantial portion of population loss in shrinking cities, yet little research has focused on it. Much of the literature presents a simple growth/decline binary that is largely determined via population figures. In this paper, we highlight the importance and assess the impact of household size changes on population decline, and determine what types of household size declines are more acute in shrinking cities than other locales. We find that elderly households and households with school-aged children are under-represented in shrinking cities, while households with pre-school-aged children are over-represented. More tellingly, we find the biggest source of household-related loss in shrinking cities to be the growth of single-person households now living in houses that were once home to entire families. These findings puncture the binary on which much of the shrinking cities discourse is based. The population dynamics of most cities are subtler than either practitioners or critical scholars assert. We argue that plans and development strategies for shrinking cities should reflect a range of demographic changes, including outmigration and internal household restructuring.     

Some principles for a system of socio-demographic statistics

The changing volume and composition of demand for social statistics indicates a need to so arrange statistical products that important interrelations among major population characteristics and institutional operations can be more effectively reflected. The System of Social and Demographic Statistics (or SSDS) concentrates upon the major characteristics and activities of Canadians as they pass through the life cycle, and upon the operations, costs and benefits of the social institutions that partly regulate such passage. Essentially SSDS is a collection of related data files, concepts, classification schemes, accounts or other measures dealing with socio-economic and demographic processes for Canada and its important sub-populations. A data file, and its associated concepts, statistical accounts or other measures, and its storage-retrieval system, form a module of SSDS. The organization of data will facilitate the estimation of appropriate coefficients reflecting relations among relevant statistical series both within and between modules. The subject-matter scope of SSDS is seen as forming three spheres of observation. The first contains data on individuals, families and households. The second refers to observations concerning the operations, costs and benefits of major social institutions that partly regulate the manner of life-cycle passage by individuals and families. The third sphere deals with inventories of the nature and conditions of important facilities created for social benefit by the above-mentioned institutions. Considerable emphasis is placed on mapping patterns of change in important demographic and socio-economic characteristics; particularly in the fields of migration, fertility, marital status, education, labour force status, occupation, industry and health.     

Demographic change and implications for planning economic strategy

The growth of population and jobs in nonmetropolitan areas and the decline in growth of metropolitan areas during the previous decade represented a significant reversal in previous settlement patterns in the industrial world. This paper examines the importance of economic and demographic change in explaining recent spatial patterns of concentration and deconcentration within a system's framework, and suggests implications for strategic economic and planning policies. The central hypothesis of this paper is that the nature of these interrelationships determine in large part the dynamics of change within metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas and makes possible a comprehensive view of the implications, for spatial redistribution, of planning policies and strategies.