The Canadian productivity stagnation, 2002–2014

Total factor productivity (TFP) growth in Canada between 2002 and 2014 has been only 0.16% per year. This figure is substantially smaller than that of the United States, or that of Canada in the past. We perform multiple counterfactual exercises to show that this small TFP growth cannot be accounted for by several compositional effects or mismeasurements of factors of production. We identify two key sectors (mostly Mining and to a lesser extent Manufacturing) that drive all of the TFP growth difference with the United States. Despite the lack of TFP growth, Canada has experienced sustained income growth due to a prolonged period of appreciation of the terms of trade (while US terms of trade have deteriorated), making real income in the two countries grow at similar rates.     

Privatization, pluralism and PWRs—looking beyond market forces

Market forces were generally held to be responsible for the failure of the UK government's attempt to privatize nuclear power and for the curtailment of the PWR programme. This paper examines a hitherto neglected factor: the institutional changes proposed by privatization, which both fragmented and alienated the political support for the nuclear industry at this crucial juncture. The history of nuclear policy is analysed in terms of corporatist theory. It is concluded that a fully developed corporatist policy sector, its authority unchallenged by other systems of representation, will usually be a necessaly condition for a successful nuclear programme.     

It's a Sin—Contraceptive Use,Religious Beliefs,and Long‐run Economic Development

This study presents a novel theory on the interaction of social norms, fertility, education, and their joint impact on long‐run economic development. The theory takes into account that sexual intercourse is utility enhancing and that the use of modern contraceptives potentially conflicts with prevailing social norms (religious beliefs). The theory motivates the existence of two steady states. At the traditional steady state, the economy stagnates, fertility is high, education is minimal, and the population sustains a norm according to which modern contraceptives are not used. At the modern steady state, the population has abandoned traditional beliefs, modern contraceptives are used, fertility is low and education and economic growth are high. Social dynamics explain why both equilibria are separated by a saddlepoint‐equilibrium (a separatrix), i.e. why it is so hard to transit from the traditional regime to the modern regime.     

PAF—A new probabilistic, computer-based technique for technology forecasting

The ultimate goal of all technology forecasting is to assist managers and planners in the decision-making process. The employment of computer techniques may increase the utility of a forecast because it permits the rapid incorporation of vast amounts of data into the projection process. On the other hand, the value of computer-based forecasts depends on the compatibility of output information with other elements of the planning system and on the confidence of the users in both the input data employed and the manner in which those data are processed. For the last three years researchers at The University of Texas at Austin have been developing a new computer-based forecasting technique called PAF (Partitive Analytical Forecasting). This technique is based on the development of logic networks which simulate the evolution and maturation of advanced technology. PAF utilized a specially developed interview technique for gathering input data and a special time-sequenced computer simulation for data processing. The final results of PAF analysis are a series of probability-associated forecasts of the time necessary for the development of a given technology and of the related costs of development. Forecasts are made for specified sets of assumptions and management strategies, and alterations of either input data or program structure are easily made. Early indications are that PAF will prove to be a valuable management tool, particularly for long-term, complex, high-risk technical programs. In this article the basic methodology of the PAF technique is discussed along with the major PAF project to date, a projection of fusion power development. Recent improvements, including the addition of optimization routines, are also briefly discussed.     

Unskilled immigration,technical progress,and wages—Role of the household sector

This paper revisits the relationship between unskilled immigration and skilled wage in the context of the BREXIT episode. Our simple general equilibrium model introduces a household sector, the inclusion of which shows that both return to capital and effective skilled wage may increase with a greater inflow of immigrants. This is a novel outcome in the theory of trade and factor flows. In addition, though technical progress in a skill‐intensive sector raises wage inequality, it no longer displaces traditional jobs. Here, the usual negative impact of unskilled immigration on the traditional sector is mitigated by increased returns to the unskilled workers.     

The Exporter Wage Premium Reconsidered—Destinations,Distances and Linked Employer–Employee Data

This study uses detailed, reliable and up‐to‐date linked employer–employee data that take account of both the demand and the supply side of the labor market to challenge the conventional wisdom of a universal exporter wage premium. It investigates whether for German establishments an exporter wage premium can be found irrespective of export destination and the distance between export origin and destination. As expected, it finds that exporters generally pay higher wages than non‐exporters, but it also shows that only exporting to certain countries is associated with a wage premium. Moreover, such a premium exists only for establishments that ship goods over a relatively long distance.     

Strategic pattern recognition—experimental evidence

The repeated play of an asymmetric Battle of the Sexes is analyzed from the perspective of “strategic pattern recognition.” Convergence to equilibrium patterns (in finite histories) and related concepts like breaking-an-equilibrium-pattern are defined and applied to the data. More than half of 202 pairs of subjects are characterized as weakly converging to a fixed equilibrium pattern. The results also show that subjects tend to break their best pattern in cases where their partners' payoffs are relatively low and that convergence initiation does not pay off. While female subjects frequently reject the males' best equilibrium with anonymous matching, behavior gets more cooperative when pairs are introduced to each other before the beginning of the game.