谈技术指标在期货价格预测中的应用

针对期货价格预测这一问题,本文主要介绍了几种与计算机相关的技术指标,充分利用已有数据和博弈大师软件所得出的图表进行预测分析,几种技术指标之间的优势得到了有效的互补,提高了预测的准确率。最后结合具体的期货品种进行了分析,进一步验证了预测的有效性。     

国际主要商品期货价格

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国际主要商品期货价格变动情况

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基于通货膨胀目标制的通货膨胀预测实证研究

<正>一、我国货币政策有效性面临的问题20世纪90年代以来,中央银行把货币供应量作为货币政策的中介目标,由于中央银行不能很好的控制货币供应量,货币供应量具有内生性,并不是完全外生的,中央银行只能控制基础货币,     

不确定性对资源性商品期货价格的影响——以“妖镍”事件为例

资源性商品期货市场的存在是为了对冲资源性企业运营风险,但在当前经济形势的不确定性事件频发的情况下,资源性企业若不能及时有效调整期货市场行动,则会出现巨大亏损。通过梳理传统资源性商品期货市场存在的必要性,采取比较静态博弈的方法分析在期货交易中,资源性企业与市场投机者的交易策略与博弈。研究发现：不确定性会冲击市场原有的利益分配格局,从而改变市场参与者的行动,进而影响资源性商品期货价格。针对这种不确定性,提出企业应动态调整交易策略、建立和完善我国期货市场等建议。     

国际主要商品期货价格变动情况

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Intermediary asset pricing in commodity futures returns

This paper assesses the extent to which intermediary capital (IC) risk contributes toward explaining commodity futures returns. We find that the IC effect is substantially positive and continues to grow as the financialization of commodities deepens. Positive and negative IC risks play asymmetric roles, with the effect of negative IC strengthening in recent subperiods. We further confirm the heterogeneous roles of IC across individual commodities by cross-section analyses. Overall, the effect of the positive IC risk factor varies significantly. Portfolios with low basis, low open interest, low momentum, and low liquidity earn significantly higher returns than counterparty portfolios.     

Estimating the connectedness of commodity futures using a network approach

Using a network approach of variance decompositions, we measure the connectedness of 18 commodity futures and characterize both static and dynamic connectedness. Our results show that metal futures are net transmitters of shocks to other futures, and agricultural futures are vulnerable to shocks from the others. Furthermore, almost two-thirds of the volatility uncertainty for commodity futures are due to the connectedness of shocks across the futures market. Dynamically, we find connectedness always increases in times of turmoil. An analysis of connectedness networks suggests that investors could be forewarned that the connectedness of various classes of futures could threaten their portfolios.     

The market quality of commodity futures markets

To study the market quality of commodity futures markets, we construct a commodity futures market quality index from the perspective of liquidity, efficiency, and volatility. Based on the market quality index, the Chinese commodity futures market operates steadily. The metal futures market is more efficient and stable than the market for agricultural futures. The Chinese commodity futures market is less liquid and more volatile than the U.S. market. We examine the determinants of market quality and find that macroeconomic variables and futures market contracts are significantly related to the market quality of Chinese commodity futures.     

The convenience yield under commodity financialization

A number of papers have dealt with commodity financialization finding strong evidence for its existence and its effect on commodity prices and volatility. We chose convenience yield (CY) to study the effect of commodity financialization based on the theory of storage and on the argument that CY resembles a call option. Using quarterly data in the period 1995–2018, on soybeans stocks, cash and futures prices, a dynamic Autoregressive Distributed Lag with Exogenous model is estimated to measure the effects of independent variables from both the financial and commodity markets on CY. The evidence reveals that financial markets volatility along macroeconomic global variables affect soybeans CY giving support to the existence of commodity financialization. Besides, we find a statistically significant and negative relation between volatility index and CY. Support for this evidence rests on the theory of storage, Real Option Analysis, and behavioral finance.     

Time-series momentum in China's commodity futures market

This study examines the time-series momentum in China's commodity futures market. We find that a time-series momentum strategy outperforms classical passive long and cross-sectional momentum strategies in terms of the Sharpe ratio, risk-adjusted excess returns, and cumulative returns. The time-series momentum strategy with a 1-month look-back period and a 1-month holding period exhibits the best performance. We observe clear time-series momentum patterns and find that the time-series momentum strategy is effective in the Chinese commodity futures market. However, the momentum lasts for less time in China than in the United States because China's futures market seems to have a greater number of speculative investors.     

Impact of commodity prices on exchange rates in commodity-exporting countries

This paper studies the link between real exchange rates and commodity prices, over the period 1993M1–2018M12, for commodity-exporting countries by analysing countries individually and considering the possibility of structural breaks. Our results suggest that: (a) the movements in the price of the main commodity (i.e., the one whose share is at least 20% of total commodity export) affect significantly to the real exchange rate; (b) the sign of the effect of commodity prices on real exchange rate is not clearly positive (as was found by earlier analyses using panel data), but it depends on the country considered; and (c) the negative effects of the possession of natural resources observed in the past decades seem not to be now overwhelming.     

Classifying and modeling nonlinearity in commodity prices using Incoterms

ABSTRACT

This paper proposes a novel approach of classifying and modeling the nonlinear behavior of commodity prices using regime-switching models with exogenous transition variables. The approach rests on using the International Commercial Terms (Incoterms), also known as border prices, to classify commodities in groups that tend to display similar dynamics. The suggested border price classification is useful in identifying the key exogenous driving variables in each group. In particular, the classification suggests that inflation and oil price are the best transition candidates that are capable of capturing the nonlinear dynamics of free on board (FOB) and cost insurance and freight (CIF) prices respectively. Our statistical linearity tests and estimation results confirm this prediction and highlight the importance of the suggested border price classification in improving our understanding of the behavior of commodity prices.     

Economic uncertainty,trading activity,and commodity futures volatility

This paper investigates the dynamics of commodity futures volatility. I derive the variance decomposition for the futures basis and show unexpected excess returns result from new information about expected future interest rates, convenience yields, and risk premia. Measures of uncertainty in economic conditions have significant predictive power for realized volatility of commodity futures returns, after controlling for lagged volatility, returns, commodity index trading, hedging pressure, and other trading activity, even during the so-called “index financialization” period. During this period, hedge fund performance predicts volatility in grain commodities, which are affected by the US ethanol mandate.     

Can commodity futures risk factors predict economic growth?

This paper examines whether commodity futures risk factors can predict future economic growth. We test risk factors capturing various spot or term premia and find that only three factors capturing term premia on the basis-momentum, basis, and change in slope are robust predictors for future economic growth, especially for long horizons. Our findings highlight the importance of the term premia, rather than the spot premia on which the literature has mainly focused. Moreover, we find that possible explanations for predictability of commodity factors—the intertemporal asset pricing model and information diffusion explanation—are all inconsistent with our empirical results.