粮食价格波动与通货膨胀关系的实证研究

根据我国1978年～2007年的数据资料,首先分别对粮食价格变动与通货膨胀率波动的事实进行描述,然后对两者进行相关性检验,通过建立协整与误差修正模型,发现粮食价格变动与通货膨胀之间存在单向Granger因果关系,且两者之间存在长期均衡关系,最后利用脉冲响应函数分析得出短期内通货膨胀对粮食价格具有较强的正向影响,而长期内冲击作用没有形成持续效应.因此,提出建立健全粮食价格监测预警体系,加强粮食综合生产能力建设和加强农资市场监管与调控的建议.     

论居民消费与经济增长的长期均衡关系

本文根据1978-2005年我国历年居民消费支出和国内生产总值数据,运用单位根检验、协整检验、Granger因果关系检验方法进行实证分析,结果表明我国居民消费与经济增长之间存在着双向的Granger因果关系和长期稳定的动态均衡关系。     

河南省产业结构变动与经济波动的关联性研究

本文选取河南省1952—2012年实际国内生产总值和第一二三产业的生产总值,构造反映产业结构变动的摩尔结构的变动指数。利用HP滤波去除摩尔结构变动指数和GDP实际增长率两个指标的周期和趋势因素,然后对经济波动的关系与产业结构变动进行Granger因果检验。结果发现,经济波动与产业结构变动之间存在双向影响的Granger因果关系。     

我国不同阶段货币对价格变化影响的研究

本文采用协整、Granger因果关系检验和误差修正分析方法研究了中国转轨时期（1985年至2010年）货币供给量变化与GDP平减指数（GDPD）、居民消费物价指数（CPI）以及工业品出厂价格指数（PPI）之间的长期均衡关系和短期动态关系。结果表明,转给时期不同层次货币供给量变化不仅与GDPD、CPI和PPI的变动间存在着协整关系,而且也是GDPD、CPI和PPI的格兰杰原因;同时,货币供应量变动对价格指数变化的影响在转轨时期不同的时间段内存在着显著的差异,这充分证明了我国的通货膨胀仍属于货币现象。     

国际石油价格与我国通货膨胀率关系的实证分析

本文结合当前国际石油价格的变动情况,运用Granger因果关系检验、误差修正模型(ECM)等时间序列分析方法对国际石油价格的变动与我国通货膨胀率的关系进行实证分析。结果表明国际油价变化率对我国通货膨胀率存在显著的单向Granger因果关系,因此我国央行在治理通货膨胀的政策实践中,应把石油价格因素考虑进来。     

中国上海和英国伦敦期货价格收益率的实证研究——以铜期货品种为例

本文采用协整模型、Granger因果关系检验、误差修正模型(ECM)对中国上海与英国伦敦铜期货价格收益率进行检验。研究结果发现,两市期货价格之间存在双向Granger因果关系、协整关系、同向变动关系和长期的共同趋势,并采用ECM模型研究两市的短期波动差异。     

居民消费价格指数与基础食品和非食品价格变动关系研究

文章采用 2010 年 12 月到 2020 年 11 月的月度数据来分析居民消费价格指数中基础食品和非食品价格变动与居民消费价格指数之间的因果关系和长期均衡关系。 从研究的过程中可以分析到基础食品和非食品的价格变动都会导致居民消费价格指数显著的变动;但是从另一方面来看,居民消费价格指数的显著变动对食品价格影响效果显著,但是对非食品的影响却没有那么的明显。 文章通过这方面的研究来对国家调控 CPI 的宏观政策如货币政策来影响通货膨胀方面给出相应的建议。     

台湾经济波动与产业结构变动的实证研究:1961-2008

经济波动与产业结构变动之间存在相互影响的动态关系。文章利用Moore结构变动指数测度了1961年至2008年间台湾总体产业结构变动情况,并采用CF滤波分离出台湾总体产业结构变动与经济波动的数据指标,并对其进行Granger因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数及方差分解,论证了台湾产业结构变动与经济波动的因果联系和相互影响的动态关系。     

河南省居民消费结构与产业结构的适应性分析

本文首先分析了河南省居民消费结构与产业结构的现状,而后对居民消费结构与产业结构的适应性从长期均衡性和因果关系等方面进行了实证研究,结果表明河南省居民消费结构与产业结构间不存在长期均衡关系,但是产业结构变动对消费结构变动具有单向适应性。最后对今后促进居民消费结构与产业结构的互适性提出了相应建议。     

河南省居民消费结构的适应性分析

本文首先分析了河南省居民消费结构与产业结构的现状,而后对居民消费结构与产业结构的适应性从长期均衡性和因果关系等方面进行了实证研究,结果表明河南省居民消费结构与产业结构间不存在长期均衡关系,但是产业结构变动对消费结构变动具有单向适应性.最后对今后促进居民消费结构与产业结构的互适性提出了相应建议.     

Low price guarantees as signals of lowest price: The moderating role of perceived price dispersion

This article presents two experimental studies examining the effects of a low price guarantee on consumers’ pre-purchase evaluations and behavioral intentions. The authors first examine how the effects of a low price guarantee are moderated by consumer perception of market price dispersion. The results show that low price guarantee effects are likely to be attenuated when consumers perceive market price dispersion for a product to be high. The second study shows that higher levels of penalty can help restore a low price guarantee's effectiveness. Specifically, a low price guarantee with progressively higher levels of penalty leads to incrementally more favorable effects on key consumer outcomes when perceived price dispersion is high. Interestingly, penalty level has no such incremental benefit in case of low perceived price dispersion. Theoretical and managerial implications of the authors’ findings, the limitations of the studies, and future research opportunities are discussed.     

我国玉米价格与生猪价格的传导关系研究

现以2015年1月到2020年9月生猪价格和玉米价格的月度数据为研究对象,运用E-G协整检验、格兰杰因果关系检验、脉冲响应、方差分解等方法进行分析。研究结果表明,生猪价格和玉米价格存在长期正相关的均衡关系,生猪价格对玉米价格有明显的拉动作用;短期内,玉米价格和生猪价格的相互影响具有时滞性。长期来看,当生猪价格受到冲击时,对玉米价格的影响作用相对较小;当玉米价格受到冲击时,对生猪价格的影响作用较大。建议保障玉米和生猪的供给,引导供需平衡;完善信息共享机制,及时传递相关信息。     

Spending propensity and price perceptions

ABSTRACT

This article presents a systematic investigation of how Spending Propensity moderates consumers’ perceptions of prices. Results from three studies are presented. Studies 1 and 2 reveal that, in the absence of any external cues, consumers who are predisposed to spending freely evaluate a posted price more favorably than those who are not. Such consumers also report anticipating less pain associated with spending than those who are not inclined to spend. Additionally, Study 2 informs that simple price communication tactics, without any real reduction in price, may be effective at mitigating the pain felt among those who are less inclined to spend. Furthermore, such tactics are capable of reducing, and even reversing, the gap between those who are not predisposed to spending and those who are. Finally, Study 3 explores how spending propensity moderates consumers’ perceptions of a discount.     

Consistent price endings increase consumers perceptions of cheapness

Should marketers make the last digit of a sale price consistent with that of its original price? Across multiple studies, including field studies and studies using student and non-student samples and various product categories, this research shows that price perception and purchase intention are related to consistency between the sale price and original price. The price perception of the deduction is moderated by the consistency between the final digit in the prices. First, consumers perceive sale prices as cheaper and have a higher purchase intention when the rightmost digit in a sale price is the same as in the original price—a phenomenon this study refers to as the “consistent ending price effect.” Second, the consistent ending price effect occurs when prices are at least three digits long, but not for two-digit prices. Finally, the study demonstrates the mediating role of processing fluency in the link between consistent ending price and price perception.     

最低收购价政策改革背景下小麦期货市场价格发现功能再检验

通过构建最低收购价政策影响下小麦期现货市场的价格传导机制的理论框架,并选取2015年我国小麦最低收购价政策改革前后两个时期各4年的周度数据,使用ADF单位根检验、Johansen协整检验、Granger因果关系检验和方差分解对最低收购价政策改革背景下小麦期货市场的价格发现功能进行实证研究。研究结果表明:无论是强麦还是普麦,最低收购价政策改革对于小麦期货价格与现货价格均衡关系的形成均具有促进作用;在最低收购价政策改革之前,强麦期货市场不具有价格发现功能,之后这种功能才得以形成,同时普麦期货市场的价格发现功能变得更为显著;小麦期货市场的影响力强于现货市场,在价格发现功能中占据主导作用。     

Customer satisfaction and price tolerance

This study investigates the association between customer satisfaction and willingness-to-pay or price tolerance. The goal is not only to determine whether the association between customer satisfaction and price tolerance is positive or negative but also to gauge the degree of association. The Swedish Customer Satisfaction Barometer provides the data. The empirical analysis indicates a negative association between the level of customer satisfaction provided by the firm and the degree of price tolerance exhibited by its customers. However, a positive association is found between year-to-year changes in the levels of customer satisfaction and price tolerance.     

我国互联网医疗服务价格管理的难点与对策建议

我国互联网医疗服务正处于一个高速发展阶段,采用恰当的互联网价格管理手段,可以更好地利用价格杠杆优化区域医疗资源配置及有效延伸、放大医疗机构服务能力。通过分析我国互联网医疗服务价格管理现状,重点剖析了当前我国互联网医疗服务价格管理的诸多难点,进而提出了完善我国互联网医疗服务价格管理的相关对策建议。     

Modelling the asymmetric responses of price level to oil price changes in Qatar

This paper inspects the asymmetric effect of oil price on prices level in Qatar. To achieve that, we proceed by employing a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach on data during the period 1990Q1–2014Q4. The estimation results show evidences of an incomplete and asymmetric influence of oil price on price level in the long term. Moreover, we find that price responses to negative changes in oil price is greater than its response to positive changes. Given Qatar’s economic features, a decrease in oil price could cause lower imports and production prices and consequently a substantial influence on domestic prices level. However, the lower effect of positive oil price changes on consumer prices can be explained by the subsidies system, the consumption patterns, and the exchange rate regime.     

The correlations between price cuts/changes and fee sensitivity on the choice of mobile phone service provider

This study adopts fee thresholds to measure users' fee sensitivity and employs a two-step logit model to predict a phone user's probability of choosing a certain service provider. The results indicate that the choice probability can be overestimated if the reference fee effect is not taken into consideration. Furthermore, the lower calling fee image and perceptions shaped by the telecommunications service provider can increase the probability of it being chosen. Users' benefit (saving money) perceptions also reveal a significant difference. In this regard, price promotion effects may not necessarily be successful for every service provider at the time. Service providers with a larger base of benefit perception users have a relative advantage in price-cutting activities. The characteristics of users in the low-loss perception (insensitive to an expensive fee) group are younger, female, and college-educated. Service providers could focus on this segmented market and implement a non-price strategy in order to attract more users. This study may be useful to mobile phone service providers in terms of price-setting policy and image management.