THE EEC SHEEPMEAT MARKET AND VOLUNTARY EXPORT RESTRAINT AGREEMENTS

Voluntary export restraint agreements are an increasingly common measure used to restrict international trade in particular commodities. They have been applied to the EEC sheepmeat market since 1980 as part of the Common Agricultural Policy. In this paper, theoretical implications of voluntary export restraints are analysed and compared with alternative trade barriers, such as variable levies. The effects of the various trade barriers which the EEC could impose on sheepmeat imports are quantified using an econometric model of the world sheepmeat market. From the exporters' viewpoint, voluntary export restraints are shown to be the least harmful form of providing protection against imports into the EEC.     

A FARM GROWTH MODEL FOR POLICY ANALYSIS IN AN EXTENSIVE PASTORAL PRODUCTION SYSTEM

The development of a simulation model of an extensive pastoral farming system to assist analysts in their assessment of government policy measures is described. The model was designed to simulate, over a number of years, the physical and financial operation of a sheep and beef production system typically found in the North Island hill country of New Zealand. By manipulating model parameters and data related to prices, costs, taxation and credit, a range of policies can be represented and their effects simulated. The model is used to undertake an ex post analysis of the farm-level impact of the supplementary minimum price scheme in New Zealand and to project farm performance following the abolition of the scheme. Consideration is given to the use of the model to represent sheep and beef production systems elsewhere.     

ECONOMIC RELATIONSHIPS IN MILK PRODUCTION

The paper reports on the statistical aspects of work done on the National Investigation into the Economics of Milk Production in 1965/66. It argues that conclusions draw from the tabulated results of random samples invariably need checking by more rigorous methods. The method of step-wise regression with the introduction of zero-one variables is the principal technique for examining feed input/output relationships and their reflection in economic terms. Five basic dependent variables are considered: yield per cow, stocking density, output per forage acre, utilised starch equivalent per forage acre and margin over feed cost per forage acre. The discussion of the results argues the overwhelming importance of stocking rate in the profitability of milk production and that on many farms concentrates are being used at uneconomic levels. The latter part of the paper considers variation in labour productivity and argues the existence of economies of scale in the use of labour regardless of the system of herd operation.     

A QUARTERLY MODEL FOR THE EEC BEEF SECTOR

The aim of the paper is to forecast the behaviour of the EEC-9 beef and veal sector-particularly exports-starting from a quarterly econometric model explaining past developments of the principal macro-economic variables from 1976 to 1982 inclusive. Attention is focused on production as its evolution has been and is considered to continue to be the most important factor influencing the development of the EEC-9 external trade of beef and veal. The paper presents firstly a theoretical approach as a basis for formulating the econometric model. Then, the parameters of the structural model are estimated for forecasting purposes; conclusions follow.     

TWO-TIER PRICING FOR MILK: A RE-EXAMINATION

Principal objections to two-tier pricing have centred on administrative complexities and the ‘transparent’ nature of its cost. However, the credibility of two-tier pricing for milk within the European Community is now enhanced by the existence of a quota scheme and by recent levels of budgetary expenditure. Potential features of two-tier pricing are that farm support can be more readily directed at selected recipients and that lowering of market prices for milk relieves consumers from some of the burden of this support. A major attraction is that the existing quota system allows for an immediate ready-made transition. In this paper, two applications are developed. Both allow varying combinations of quota level and support price, but differ in their impact on producers' incomes. Some degree of national flexibility within the Community is also explored.     

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FOOD PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION VARIABILITY: POLICY IMPLICATIONS FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

This paper examines whether there is increased inter-year instability in food consumption at the national level, and to what extent this is attributable to increased instability of food production in the wake of adoption of modern agricultural technology. The data analysed indicates that increased production instability does translate into increased fluctuations in consumption. Nevertheless, year-to-year consumption variability among the sample of 38 countries has declined during the past 25 years. This is attributed to improved stocking operations and trade practices which accompany economic growth. Nevertheless, food insecurity, as measured in terms of fluctuations around trend levels of consumption, does remain a problem, especially among the poor. Therefore, policy options to reduce consumption instability are outlined.     

GLOBAL MEDITERRANEAN POLICY IMPLICATIONS IN VIEW OF THE NEW EEC ENLARGEMENT

The long expected new enlargement of the Community to include Spain and Portugal will undoubtedly affect existing trade arrangements of the EEC with the south and south-eastern countries of the Mediterranean basin. After examining the economic, political and strategic importance of the Mediterranean area to the Community, the paper suggests two approaches to reforming and strengthening the external Mediterranean policy of EEC-12: first, a short-term piecemeal approach to protect the sensitive areas of Mediterranean export trade, and second, a longer-term policy concept that will gradually lead to a new division of labour between the EEC and its Mediterranean trade partners.     

A WHEAT POLICY FOR THE SEVENTIES*

A study of the origins of the wheat surplus problem in Australia suggests that more far-reaching adjustments in national wheat policy are required than those currently envisaged. Ten specific recommendations for the reform of the present policy are outlined. A new form of income stabilisation scheme is proposed.     

华北地区农户对粮食政策的评价及生产粮食意愿分析

该文在问卷调查的基础上,分析了我国华北地区粮食主产区农户对国家粮食政策的评价和生产粮食的意愿及原因等问题。结果表明,农户对国家"两减免,三补贴"政策的落实情况比较满意,从事粮食生产的农户获得国家粮食政策优惠最多的是"直接补贴";农户对国家粮食政策期望按照重要性排序是:"提高最低收购价">"加大粮食直补">"加大农田基础设施建设">"加大科技投入与推广"。农户种植粮食作物的主要原因是"保证口粮、有粮吃";愿意多种粮食的农户占56.5%,还有32.2%的农户不愿意多种粮食。农户愿意多种粮食的原因主要是当前的粮食及农业政策不错,其次是多种粮食能够增加农户经济收入;农户不愿意多种粮食主要是缘于成本效益较低、增产幅度小以及农户基本口粮足够。     

PRODUCTION FUNCTION ANALYSIS AS A GUIDE TO POLICY IN LOW-INCOME FARM AREAS

This paper discusses many of the problems encountered in estimating production functions in a low-income farm area in Saskatchewan. It also ermines the difficulties of interpreting the estimated structural coefficients and their usefulness in policy formulation.
The econometric difficulties discussed in production function estimation are those of function selection and choice and rearmament of variables. Many of the comments are also relevant to other forms of quantitative research.
It is combed that: a great deal of arbitrariness is involved in selecting the appropriate production function model, statistical results often conflict with economic theory, it is impossible to interpret the results in a meaningful manner, and production function research is unable to. provide fruitful information for the type of policy decisions deemed desirable to change the economic structure of low-income farm areas.     

政策重在贯彻落实

《粮食流通管理条例》的颁布实施标志着我国粮食管理逐步走向法制化轨道。近日,国家粮食局下发了《关于<贯彻实施粮食流通管理条例>的通知》,要求各级粮食行政管理部门严格依法行政,并做好各项相关工作,保证《条例》全面、正确的实施。 充分认识全面推进依法管粮的重要性和紧迫性。《条例》是我国规范粮食流通活动的专门性行政法规,对于建立健全粮食流通体制,发挥市场机制在粮食资源配置中的基础性     

OPTIONS FOR REDUCING INPUTS TO AGRICULTURE: A NON-ECONOMIST'S VIEW

By adopting new (higher output) technology farmers have largely compensated for the steady fall in ‘real’ EEC farm prices: as a result food production is in surplus. Because immediate price cuts adequate to curb production are unlikely, further restriction on farm output (e.g., milk quotas) appears unavoidable. Farmers must then aim to reduce their input costs so as to produce their ‘quota’ as cheaply as possible. The paper examines options for reducing inputs, and concludes that more research on lower-input production systems is urgently needed, and that the economic discipline must be closely integrated with this research. It notes that a shift towards ‘less intensive’ farming would be in line with public concern on the environment, food quality and animal welfare.     

TIME VARYING DEMAND FOR ORANGES IN THE EEC

Orange consumption is of special interest to the EEC since three new citrus-producing countries are scheduled to enter into the community. Demand for sweet oranges has changed over time as EEC trade policies change. Time varying parameters procedures are used to evaluate the dynamics of orange demand in the community of nine. The demand estimates are then used to make consumption projections through 1990. The merits of TVP models are contrasted to those of OLS.     

INTERACTIONS OF QUANTITY,PRICE AND POLICY: MILK AND DAIRY PRODUCTS

A combination of reasoning and simple regression equations are used to examine the recent history of some aspects of the dairy industry. Attention is dawn to some of the pitfalls in attempting to quantify dairy demand and supply relationships. Elasticities are generally confirmed to be low, with the exception of the demand for cream; though it is suggested that the supply of milk may be less unresponsive to price change than is often maintained. The results obtained are related to milk marketing policy.     

我国粮食生产补贴政策浅析

文章回顾梳理了2004年以来中央出台的强农惠农政策,指出粮食生产补贴政策体系初步建立。从4个方面阐述了补贴政策有力地促进了粮食生产,一是调动了生产积极性,二是改善了生产装备条件,三是促进了关键技术落实,四是促进了生产方式转变。最后,提出完善粮食生产补贴政策的地点建议:一要稳定收入补贴,二要强化技术补贴,三要探索机制补贴,四要建立大县大户补贴。