Share Prices and Macroeconomic Factors

The APT with macroeconomic factors put forward by Chen, Roll and Ross (1986) was tested using monthly Australian sectoral share-price indexes for 1980–1994. The inflation rate was found to be consistently priced. The significance of other factors was found to depend on the choice of sample period and estimation method. The model was compared to both an APT with artificial factors and the CAPM. Both versions of the APT were found to clearly out-perform the CAPM but neither version of the APT was clearly superior to the other in terms of both within- and out-of-sample explanatory power.     

Catering through Nominal Share Prices

We propose and test a catering theory of nominal stock prices. The theory predicts that when investors place higher valuations on low‐price firms, managers respond by supplying shares at lower price levels, and vice versa. We confirm these predictions in time‐series and firm‐level data using several measures of time‐varying catering incentives. More generally, the results provide unusually clean evidence that catering influences corporate decisions, because the process of targeting nominal share prices is not well explained by alternative theories.     

Estimating the Volatility of Discrete Stock Prices

This paper introduces an estimator of stock price volatility that eliminates, at least asymptotically, the biases that are caused by the discreteness of observed stock prices. Assuming that the observed stock prices are continuously monitored, an estimator is constructed using the notion of how quickly the price changes rather than how much the price changes. It is shown that this estimator has desirable asymptotic properties, including consistency and asymptotic normality. Also, through a simulation study, the authors show that it outperforms natural estimators for the low- and middle-priced stocks. Furthermoret, he simulation study demonstratest hat the proposed estimator is robust to certain misspecifications in measuring the time between price changes.     

Portfolio Insurance Strategies when Hedging Affects Share Prices

Option-based portfolio insurance can result in coordinated buying and selling, which destabilizes markets such that hedgers fail to achieve their objective. Gennotte and Leland (1990) show portfolio insurance strategies can have an impact on price movements. Ramanlal and Mann (1996) show how price movements, in turn, can alter hedging strategies. In this paper, we combine these separate effects and develop an equilibrium, executable hedging strategy. This hedging strategy requires less rebalancing than traditional portfolio insurance; more important, it achieves downside protection with a less destabilizing impact on security prices.     

Tick Size,Share Prices,and Stock Splits

Minimum price variation rules help explain why stock prices vary substantially across countries, and other curiosities of share prices. Companies tend to split their stock so that the institutionally mandated minimum tick size is optimal relative to the stock price. A large relative tick size provides an incentive for dealers to make markets and for investors to provide liquidity by placing limit orders, despite its placing a high floor on the quoted bid-ask spread. A simple model suggests that idiosyncratic risk, firm size, and visibility of the firm affect the optimal relative tick size and thus the share price.     

The Effect of Cum- to Ex-Dividend Changes on UK Share Prices

The price behaviour of a share at the time of its going ex-dividend presents an intriguing observable. Previous authors have argued that the statistic is indicative of ‘shareholder rationality’. This is to say, if shareholders ‘rationally' capitalise their dividends received on an after personal tax basis, the change in the price of a share on its going ex-dividend should be a well-defined function of shareholders’ assessment of their own personal tax brackets. In turn this would substantiate the ‘clientele effect’ hypothesis whereby shareholders with high income/low capital gain tax brackets hold shares with high growth companies, and shareholders with low income/high capital gain tax brackets hold shares with low-growth companies. Our statistical analysis provides evidence of the clientele effect in the UK stock market.     

Information Asymmetry and Asset Prices: Evidence from the China Foreign Share Discount

We examine the effect of information asymmetry on equity prices in the local A‐ and foreign B‐share market in China. We construct measures of information asymmetry based on market microstructure models, and find that they explain a significant portion of cross‐sectional variation in B‐share discounts, even after controlling for other factors. On a univariate basis, the price impact measure and the adverse selection component of the bid‐ask spread in the A‐ and B‐share markets explains 44% and 46% of the variation in B‐share discounts. On a multivariate basis, both measures are far more statistically significant than any of the control variables.     

股权分置改革刍议

上市公司解决股权分置方案由非流通股股东、公司管理层、机构投资者、自然人股东之间的博弈决定.解决股权分置后证券市场更加活跃、市盈率进一步降低、保荐机构分化更加明显.从首批四家解决股权分置试点情况看,解决股权分置还应当建立公司管理层激励机制、修改国有股考核办法、建立流通股股东谈判机制.     

Measuring the Impact of Corporate Investment Announcements on Share Prices: The Spanish Experience

We bring together three disparate strands of literature to develop a comprehensive empirical framework to examine the efficiency of security analysts' earnings forecasts in Singapore. We focus specifically on how the increased uncertainty and the negative market sentiment during the period of the Asian crisis affected the quality of earnings forecasts. While we find no evidence of inefficiencies in the pre-crisis period, our results suggest that after the onset of the crisis, analysts (1) issued forecasts that were systematically upward biased; (2) did not fully incorporate the (negative) earnings-related news; and (3) predicted earnings changes which proved too extreme.     

国际大银行股权分散对我国国有商业银行的启示

国际几大商业银行的股权结构呈现分散化特征,以机构投资者持股为主。股权分散化是企业组织形式演变的结果,证券市场发展和相关法规进一步推动了股权结构的分散。股权结构多元化是我国国有商业银行的发展方向,境外上市是理性选择,应积极培育理性机构投资者并完善相关制度。     

Dividend Taxes and Share Prices: Evidence from Real Estate Investment Trusts

Prior empirical evidence regarding the impact of dividend taxes on firm valuation is mixed. This study avoids some of the complications encountered in previous empirical work by exploiting institutional characteristics of REITs, such as their limited discretion over dividend policy and the relative transparency of REIT assets. We regress the market value of equity on the market value of assets and tax basis, which creates tax deductions that lower future dividend taxes without affecting future pretax cash flow. We find that firm value is positively related to tax basis, suggesting that future dividend taxes are capitalized into share prices.     

Volatility Reversion and Correlation Structure of Returns in Major International Stock Markets

This paper investigates the stochastic behavior of weekly stock market returns in the U.S., Japan, and the U.K. during the period 1984 to 1994. The analysis is carried out using an augmented version of Bollerslev's [7] multivariate GARCH model with structural dummies to test for differences in the mean, volatility, and covariance structure of returns during the pre- and post-October 1987 crash periods. In addition, the paper explores the issue of the volatility reversion and time-varying behavior of correlation structure of returns in these markets. Mean-spillovers exist from the U.S. and Japan to the U.K. The magnitude of these spillovers is, however, low. Volatility spillovers exist from the U.S. and, to a lesser extent, from Japan to the U.K. Mean returns in all three markets and volatility in Japan and the U.K. are the same during the two periods, while volatility in the U.S. is lower during the post-crash period. With the exception of the correlation of returns between Japan and the U.K., which has doubled since the October 1987 crash, the remaining correlations are statistically similar during the two periods. Simulations performed indicate that volatility is reverting in the sense that, when it departs from its long-run equilibrium level, it tends to revert back to that level.     

封闭式基金净值与价格的因果性和协整分析

研究表明．绝大多数封闭式基金净值与价格之问不存在协整关系。这说明基金的折价率不足均值回归的．所以认为基金价格必然向其内在价值回归是不正确的．试图要从封闭式基金的折价率中套利的行为未必可取。     

全面提升股份制商业银行国际业务竞争力

入世后大量外资银行进入中国,与国有商业银行、股份制商业银行展开“零距离”的竞争。国际业务以其低风险、高收益成为各家银行竞争的焦点业务。面对国内、国外同业的竞争态势,股份制商业银行必须正视自身的优、劣势,着力解决目前发展国际业务存在的现实问题,从加快客户结构调整、创新业务品种、加强内部风险管理、完善激励机制、培养高素质人才、培育企业文化氛围等几方面着手,全面提升国际业务竞争力。     

流动性过剩与价格上涨密切相关

流动性过剩将会长期存在。从2000年开始谈论的流动性过剩问题，这么多年一直没有消除掉，其主要原因是经济发展的失衡，且没有任何一个国家愿意在这个过程中付出代价。我的演讲将围绕以下问题，第一，如何理解流动性过剩在中国。第二，人民银行能否对冲过剩的流动性。实际上是做不到的。因为很多货币供给已在货币当局的监控之外。第三，流动性过剩必然会导致这轮价格的上涨和资产价格的膨胀。第四，对流动性过剩不应做好或坏的判断，而要客观评定。如何利用流动性过剩，来改造目前的经济结构。最后，流动性过剩和资产价格的膨胀会长期存在。     

国际大宗商品价格对国内通胀的影响研究

我国当前经济发展过程中对能源、基础原材料等国际大宗商品的依存度较高,因而国际大宗商品价格波动通过进口渠道向国内传导,对我国国内的物价水平造成较大冲击。本文在使用Bai-Perron方法检测了国际大宗商品价格变动的两个结构性断点的基础上,采用变系数VAR模型(TVP-VAR)分析了不同阶段的大宗商品价格冲击对我国价格水平的传导是否存在差异。采用SVAR模型研究了大宗商品价格向国内物价传导的结构性特征。结果表明:CPI对大宗商品价格波动的脉冲响应存在阶段性差异,PPI的脉冲响应趋势基本一致;经济政策不确定性会弱化大宗商品价格向CPI的传导;大宗商品价格和其他宏观冲击对物价变化的相对重要性在金融危机前后出现明显转变。据此,本文建议提高内需对经济的拉动作用,建立国际大宗商品价格预警监测机制,增强大宗商品供给能力和定价权,发挥大宗商品期货市场的价格发现功能。