Towards Agricultural Policy 3.0 – an agenda for agricultural research

This article reviews the development from market‐based support measures (‘Agricultural Policy 1.0’) towards direct and decoupled payments (‘Agricultural Policy 2.0’) which are increasingly justified by environmentally friendly practices (‘Agricultural Policy 2.1’) to which payments are bound. It describes frequent problems connected with today's agri‐environmental programmes, particularly non‐compliance and a too indirect link between practices paid for and environmental effects. Other programmes have started to pay farmers more directly for environmental outputs on their fields, such as the number of valuable plants on their grassland. Transaction costs for the administration and control of these programmes have been shown to remain at an acceptable level, so that such output‐related policies may be effective and promising options. It is suggested to direct the work of agricultural researchers, including economists, into looking for a stronger link between environmental outputs and public support, something that could be termed Agricultural Policy 3.0. This could lend some more visibility, relevance and attractiveness to our discipline .     

INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION: THE SERVICES OF THE COMMONWEALTH BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS

The need for an information service in agricultural economics and rural sociology is apparent from the quantity of publications. The Bureau has evolved in response to progressive recognition of this need and from earlier attempts to meet it. An information service must provide for awareness of contents of current publications, and for retrieval of information from accumulated stores. The Bureau's journal, World Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology Abstracts (WAERSA), is designed to provide these services mainly by citation of classified literature together with abstracts and author, subject and geographical indexes. Classification and subject indexing raise conceptual problems which are being handled by empirical methods. A work flow line is designed to deal smoothy with current world publications. Review articles provide complementary information. Editors and authors can facilitate the work of the Bureau by attention to form and substance of primary publications. The present situation is hardly appropriate for use of computer-based services except possibly for inter-disciplinary linkages. It is hoped that the Bureau will eventually operate in conjunction with a comprehensive international library, around which research, teaching, editorial and information services will interact.     

THE SEARCH FOR THE COST OF PRODUCTION, 1914-30

The Agriculture Act 1920, provided for British fanners from the the the autumn of 1921 guaranteed minimum prices for wheat and oats which were to be adjusted year by year in accordance with changes in ‘the cost of production’ from those recorded for the base year 1919. In preparation for this task, the agricultural departments of the United Kingdom established an Agricultural Costings Committee under a director and deputy director at Whitehall, and with 26 costings officers among the farmers in the counties. And here begins the official research into agricultural economics in this country, as distinct from the academic. For although the Agriculture Act 1920 was repealed in 1921 just before it came into force and the Costings Committee was disbanded at the same time, the collection and analysis of farming costs was soon revived by the institution of the advisory economics service. The present paper describes the events which led up to the Agricultural Costings Committee and the continuing search for ‘the cost of production’ by the agricultural economists in the early days of the advisory service.     

INTERNATIONAL BIBLIOGRAPHICAL SERVICES FOR MARKETING: AN APPRAISAL IN TERMS OF CONVENIENCE FOR WORK IN THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Adaptation of computer technology to the assembly of bibliographical information has expanded enormously the amount and range of information that can be held. Convenience in use remains an important consideration. This criterion is applied to some international bibliographical systems from the viewpoint of a particular discipline. A second stage selection based on the primary sources seems necessary to take full advantage of their potential.     

POLICY DIRECTION AND ECONOMIC INTERPRETATIONS OF THE U.S. AGRICULTURAL ACT OF 1970

Review and change have recently characterised governmental price and income policy for agriculture in the U.K., E.E.C. and U.S. This study of the U.S. Agricultural Act of 1970, effective for the major crops for the next three years, is a follow-up to an earlier article in this Journal on the policy of the 1960's. An analysis is made of the new Act's development, provisions, and probable consequences. Although voluntary land retirement, compensatory payment policy is continued, a ‘set-aside’ modification is likely to have implications for either government costs or farmer incomes. The slightly lower supports and higher payments contrasts with the apparent current direction of European policy. Consideration is given to current negotiations and policy differences among these three trading groups.     

INFORMATION AND THE FARMER IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN1

Today's successful farmer needs up-to-date, accurate information on countless subjects. Finding more effective ways to get information from agricultural researchers to farmers is more important now than it ever has been. This study determined where farmers in two southern Saskatchewan municipalities got information about new grain varieties, new chemicals and other innovations. Because the study is based on a sample area typical of farm communities across southern Saskatchewan, the findings are relevant to this entire grain growing region. Results are that while information sources such as the Agricultural Representative and extension services were useful, they did not have nearly enough contact with farmers. On the other hand, information sources such as the elevator agent, registered seed grower, farm press and radio had a great deal of contact with farmers, but did not distribute nearly as much information as they could. These findings indicate an immediate need for a more cooperative farm information program in Western Canada. L'INFORMATION ET LES FERMIERS DU SUD DE LA SASKATCHEWAN– Aujourd'hui le fermier progressif a besoin d'une information a la page et objective sur nombreux sujets. Chercher des moyens plus efficaces de faire parvenir ['information des chercheurs aux fermicrs est plus important que jamais. Cette étude indique I'endroit où les fermiers de deux municipalités du Sud de la Saskatchewan ont obtenu I'information concernant de nouvelles variétés de grain, de nouveaux produits chimiques et d'autres innovations. Du fail que l'étude est basée sur un endroit représentatif de communautés rurales du Sud de la Saskatchewan, les résultats sont valables pour toute cette région de production de grain. Les conclusions indiquent que, en dépit du fait que les sources d'information comme I'agronome de comté et le service de vulgarisation sont utiles, ces dernières ne retiennent cependant pas beaucoup I'attention des fermiers. Elks soulignent également le fait que les sources d'information telles que I'agent de compagnie de grain, le producteur de semence, la presse et la radio agricole tout en maintenant un lien etroit avec les fermiers ne distribuent pas toute I'information qu'ils pourraient fournir. Ces résultats soulignent le besoin immediat d'un plan d'information mieux coordonné pour les fermiers de I'Ouest du Canada.     

Effects of perceived product quality and Lifestyles of Health and Sustainability (LOHAS) on consumer price preferences for children's furniture in China

The effects of perceived product quality and orientation toward Lifestyles of Health and Sustainability (LOHAS) on consumer price preferences were studied with the use of survey data of the children's furniture market in two metropolitan cities of China: Shanghai and Shenzhen. Based on the results from a factor analysis and logistic regression, consumers’ perceived product quality of children's furniture was identified as a four-dimensional construct: ‘supplier attributes’, ‘extended product attributes’, ‘basic product attributes’ and ‘environmental quality attributes’. Consumer price preferences were discovered to be negatively influenced by ‘basic product attributes’, but positively influenced by consumer orientation towards LOHAS, gender and education level. In conclusion, China's children's furniture market presents a high-end niche segment with growth potential for both furniture producers and wood material suppliers.     

IN SEARCH OF THE COMMON AGRICULTURAL POLICY'S ‘AGRICULTURAL COMMUNITY’

Although some aspects of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) are intended to improve the welfare of European society in general, its income support objective is aimed specifically at the ‘agricultural community’. This community has never been defined precisely. In consequence, it is difficult to assess the success of the CAP. Alternative ways of defining the agricultural community are considered and their implications for policy discussed. Existing data sources are used to illustrate the numbers of households and household members which various definitions produce.     

A MODEL OF THE COMMON AGRICULTURAL POLICY

Several efforts have been made since 1980 to estimate the costs and benefits of the European Community's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). This paper summarises the approach and method adopted in developing one such effort, which aims to provide results at country, commodity and interest group level both for the CAP as a whole, and for changes in it. Economic analysis of the effects of price changes in the CAP is carried out with the use of direct and crossprice elasticities of supply and demand for sixteen major commodities, using base levels of production, consumption, and gross trade flows in each member state, along with rest-of-world data. A number of CAP instruments, such as subsidies, levies, quotas and ‘green’ exchange rates, are built into the calculations and can be varied, along with support prices, to produce new situations in domestic markets and in world price levels. Both financial (budgetary) and welfare (economic surplus) effects of such exogenous price changes can be calculated. Certain policy changes, such as a move to ‘free’ markets, involve endogenous calculation of equilibrium prices. Trend projections subject to a priori constraints are used to produce results for years beyond the extent of data currently available. The types of model run commonly carried out are discussed, along with several strategic judgments that became necessary in carrying out the research. Finally, questions concerning the future development and use of the model are addressed.     

THE EROSION OF AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS IN AN OIL ECONOMY: THE CASE OF NIGERIA

After several years of oil production and exports with attendant revenue influx, the sector is yet to make a significant impact in Nigeria's economic growth. Contrary to the hopes and expectations that greeted the oil discovery, the non-oil export sector of the economy, more specifically the agricultural sector, has been declining consistently with further increases in oil exports. This paper is intended to provide an empirical analysis of an aspect of structural change that has taken place in the Nigerian economy. The hypothesis investigated is that an increase in oil exports results in higher relative prices on non-tradeable to tradeable goods and an appreciation of the domestic currency, hence a loss of the competitiveness of the agricultural export sector in the international market. This phenomenon, popularly known as the ‘Dutch disease’, has been vigorously discussed in the United Kingdom, Norway and the Netherlands, has also received much attention from Australian economists in relation to minerals.     

Value‐Chains in the Andes: Upgrading for Ecuador's Blackberry Producers

We apply a value chain approach to examine how blackberry producers in Ecuador can improve production and marketing practices to obtain more favorable prices. Results show that general upgrading actions are associated with improved producer prices, and specific activities, such as seeking information from reputable sources can lead to substantial welfare improvements. The paper goes beyond most value chain studies which treat participation in a ‘modern’ value chain as a discrete state. Ecuador's blackberry industry is evolving incrementally with no clearly discernible ‘modern’ market chains. Instead, producers incrementally make improvements in multiple dimensions. Relatively low‐cost practices, many of which do not imply substantial risk or investment, are associated with price improvements. Obstacles to participation in incremental value chain upgrading activities are not insurmountable. In particular, scale of production is not a limiting factor: small‐scale producers are not precluded from adopting improved practices and they do not suffer in terms of price received.     

PART TIME FARMING—IMPLICATIONS FOR FARM FAMILY INCOME

The Common Agricultural Policy has been more successful at securing food supplies than at providing adequate incomes for small farmers. Among proposals for resolving the problem, part time farming is a promising option. To date, agricultural policy has at best ignored farms below the ‘full time’ threshold, at worst discriminated against them. The new Agricultural Structures policy embodies a more positive approach, however. Robson's paper calls for better information on farm households with other gainful activities. Statistics from the 1983 Farm Structure Survey provide insight into the nature and extent of part time farming in the European Community. Neglect of part time farming in the UK up to now may have stemmed from its perceived irrelevance for agricultural policy. Now that it is being viewed in a more favourable light, policy makers need to be appraised of the facts. Currently about one third of main agricultural holdings in England and Wales are part time farms in the sense that farmer or spouse combines another paid job with farming. Gasson's paper explores the nature of these other jobs and features of their distribution. Following trends in other developed countries, non-farm activities are becoming increasingly important for UK farming families. Growth in part time farming has obvious implications for income support, widely agreed to be the fundamental objective of agricultural policy in western Europe. Existing farm income measures are not adequate for assessing the extent of the income problem in agriculture. Data from the Inland Revenue's Survey of Personal Incomes and the Wye College part time farming survey fill some of the gaps left in official measurements. Non-farming earnings, pensions and investment income contribute significantly to farm household incomes. A majority of part time farming families in England and Wales make more from other sources than from farming. Although average incomes of part time farmers may exceed those of full timers, Hill's paper identifies a section of part time farming families with inadequate incomes from all sources.     

THE ECONOMIC POLITY OF FARM POLICY

A review of the ‘new political economy’ of agricultural policies includes models of social income maximising governments, collective action by ‘pressure groups’, and the interaction between politicians and voters. An alternative explanation for Olson's “social by-product” theory for why farmers received massive subsidies as a large group is also presented. An explanation for various patterns of farm policy interventions is given, including why rich countries subsidise and poor countries tax farmers. Finally, the role of public research expenditures and the interaction with commodity policy is explored.     

Addressing gender in agricultural research for development in the face of a changing climate: where are we and where should we be going?

Agricultural development efforts that do not address persistent gender gaps miss opportunities for greater impact. This synthesis reflects on key findings from integrated quantitative and qualitative analyses at the nexus of gender, agricultural development, and climate change. Linked farm household-, intrahousehold-, community-, and institutional-level data highlight significant and nuanced gender differences in adaptive capacity of individuals and communities to respond to climate change. The gender gap is also substantial in exposure to climate change and its impacts, and uptake of new practices that lower vulnerability. Women in agriculture will remain largely neglected by information and service providers unless their differing needs, access to, and control over resources are considered at policy and project design stage. Yet clear guidelines for addressing the needs of both men and women in different environments and agricultural systems are still lacking. Participatory ‘action research’ approaches with a focus on co-learning, and using innovative cell phone or social media-based approaches offer exciting new opportunities. Agricultural development decision-makers and project designers need to ‘design with gender in mind’. Equipping them with tools and knowledge of innovative gender-transformative practices and intervention options and creating accountability for serving women and men will be key.     

THE ROLE OF GOVERNMENT IN AGRICULTURAL MARKETING

The author considers the question ‘What is a marketing improvement and how can it be recognised?’ and finds it a more difficult question to answer than it might first appear. Yet government is constantly urging ‘improvement’ on the industry. Rejecting the notion that government is somehow better placed than people in the market to decide what should be the pattern of the future, the author suggests that a proper role for government is to create the context within which the natural, self-adjusting mechanisms of the market economy can function properly, and explores the implications of such a role. He also argues a case for reconsidering the structure and role of the bodies which represent sectoral interests.     

MEASURING NON-USE VALUE OF ENVIRONMENTAL GOODS USING THE CONTINGENT VALUATION METHOD: PROBLEMS OF INFORMATION AND COGNITION AND THE APPLICATION OF COGNITIVE QUESTIONNAIRE DESIGN METHODS

Much interest now focuses on the use of the Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) to assess non-use value of environmental goods. The paper reviews recent literature and highlights particular problems of information provision and respondent knowledge, comprehension and cognition. These must be dealt with by economists in designing CVM surveys for eliciting non-use values. Cognitive Questionnaire Design Methods are presented which invoke concepts from psychology and tools from cognitive survey design (focus groups and verbal reports) to reduce a complex environmental good into a meaningful commodity that can be valued by respondents in a contingent market. This process is illustrated with examples from the authors' own research valuing alternative afforestation programmes.     

ACTIVITY SELECTION UNDER CONDITIONS OF RISK AND INSTABILITY: CONSIDERATION OF FREQUENCY

The terms ‘instability’ and ‘risk’ are sometimes used interchangeably in the literature. Some make the argument that instability will shift the firm's supply curve to the left if the producer is risk-averse Risk, however, is associated with the unpredictable residuals, or deviations from the producer's revenue expectations. The inherent instability of these returns does not necessarily imply an added exposure to risk as long as the producer forms his expectations based on the entire information set available to him when constructing the mathematical model representing his judgement on the variables' future behaviour. The producer may also respond to the relative instability of the returns generated by an enterprise even if risk, as defined above, is perceived to be non-existent. The existence of prediction errors exposes the producer to conditions of choice under risk while the predictable component exposes the producer to conditions of choice under instability. His preferences with regard to risk and instability may be quite different. The purpose of this paper is to extend the traditional planning model under risk to account for the producer's attitude toward the predicted instability of returns over time, and to illustrate the effect that this attitude will have upon his production plans.     

THE SECTORAL INCIDENCE OF PROTECTION AND ZIMBABWEAN AGRICULTURE

This article applies the literature on ‘incidence analysis’ to the case of Zimbabwe, the main hypothesis being that industrial protection indirectly taxes agricultural exports by increasing the price of non-tradeables. The extent to which industrial protection increases the price of non-tradeables is measured by Sjaastad's incidence parameter. The study shows that there exists a generally high level of incidence and finds major differences in ‘true protection’ across categories of exportables and individual agricultural export commodities. The calculated price effects of industrial protection indicate substantial indirect disincentives to the production of agricultural exportables. On average, these are more than offset by direct subsidies in the case of beef. For other agricultural export commodities, indirect taxes either overcompensate direct subsidies or exacerbate the negative direct protection resulting in extremely high true taxation.     

充分发挥期货市场对农业农村现代化的服务功能

农产品期货市场作为我国重要的金融基础设施,历经30年探索实践,在服务农业农村现代化方面做出显著贡献.其通过提升价格发现效率、丰富风险管理手段、创新业务模式和品种等方式,对内有利于提升农业产业规范化水平,改善农业生产经营模式,促进地方优势产业发展,切实保障农民利益,对外有利于提高我国农产品的国际影响力和定价权.但中国与美...     

A SIMULATION APPROACH TO THE ANALYSIS OF STABILISATION POLICIES IN AGRICULTURAL MARKETS: A CASE STUDY*

Agricultural markets are very often susceptible to year-to-year fluctuations in price and output and it is generally agreed that it would be desirable to control these fluctuations by intelligent market support operations. In this paper we develop a simulation model to assess the efficacy of market support operations in the case of egg market in the U.K. during the period 1958-68. We argue that for this problem a simulation approach is more effective than either a geometric or an algebraic approach. On the basis of our analysis, we find that in the absence of the market support operations of the British Egg Marketing Board during the period 1958-68, the long-run average return to the egg producer would have been only marginally different from the actual but the instability of the market would have been substantially greater. We also found that because of the nature of the subsidy arrangements, there were severe limits to the Egg Board's capacity to increase producer price even in the short run in spite of the inelastic demand curve. More generally, we conclude that marketing Boards in situations similar to the Egg Board's should aim at keeping close to the long-run producer price rather than short-run profit maximisation.