Time Delay and the Extraction of Information Rent in Regulation

A crucial idea in Laffont and Tirole (1993) is the extraction of costly information rent through production distortion. In this paper we augment the Laffont-Tirole model with time delay, highlighting the possibility of further rent extraction through consumption distortion due to the delayed implementation of a public project. This consumption distortion through delay in essence relaxes the incentive constraint in the presence of asymmetric information. We show that a positive but finite delay can be optimal in regulation, and provide a condition differentiating welfare-improving delays from welfare-worsening ones. This condition generalizes the shutdown condition of an inefficient firm in the Laffont-Tirole model.     

Abductive Inference and C. S. Peirce: 150 Years Later

This paper is about two things: (i) Charles Sanders Peirce (1837–1914)—an iconoclastic philosopher and polymath who is among the greatest of American minds. (ii) Abductive inference—a term coined by C. S. Peirce, which he defined as “the process of forming explanatory hypotheses. It is the only logical operation which introduces any new idea.”

1. Abductive inference and quantitative economics. Abductive inference plays a fundamental role in empirical scientific research as a tool for discovery and data analysis. Heckman and Singer (2017) strongly advocated “Economists should abduct.” Arnold Zellner (2007) stressed that “much greater emphasis on reductive [abductive] inference in teaching econometrics, statistics, and economics would be desirable.” But currently, there are no established theory or practical tools that can allow an empirical analyst to abduct. This paper attempts to fill this gap by introducing new principles and concrete procedures to the Economics and Statistics community. I termed the proposed approach as Abductive Inference Machine (AIM).

2. The historical Peirce’s experiment. In 1872, Peirce conducted a series of experiments to determine the distribution of response times to an auditory stimulus, which is widely regarded as one of the most significant statistical investigations in the history of nineteenth-century American mathematical research (Stigler in Ann Stat 239–265, 1978). On the 150th anniversary of this historical experiment, we look back at the Peircean-style abductive inference through a modern statistical lens. Using Peirce’s data, it is shown how empirical analysts can abduct in a systematic and automated manner using AIM.

     

THE IMPACT OF MERGERS IN U.S. PETROLEUM INDUSTRY ON WHOLESALE GASOLINE PRICES

Starting in the mid‐1990s, the U.S. petroleum industry experienced a wave of mergers, several of them between large petroleum companies that were previously competitors. Using an econometric analysis of terminal city‐specific data, this study finds that the majority of the mergers led to higher wholesale gasoline prices in the United States in the mid‐1990s through 2000. (JEL L7, L13, L40)     

Validity of sustainability framework for China’s mining cities – a structural equation modelling approach

Many studies developed their framework for sustainability through indicator systems, but the interactions and relationships within these indicators have not been studied yet. In this article, based on indicator systems, we use a sample of 78 mining cities in China and employ structural equation modelling (SEM) method to explore the validity of sustainability framework. Our empirical results show that resources abundance positively affects urbanization level significantly but negatively affects cleaner production level and environmental protection level significantly; economic strength positively affects urbanization level significantly; cleaner production level has a significant effect on economic strength and non-mineral resources conversion efficiency. We also find that when economic strength is low, resources abundance might weaken the positive effect of economy on urbanization.     

ASSESSING THE ASSESSMENT OR,THE RAE AND THE OPTIMAL ORGANIZATION OF UNIVERSITY RESEARCH

The UK Research Assessment Exercise (RAE) is assessed as an incentive scheme affecting the allocation of research talent of varying ‘quality’ across departments. The ‘centres of excellence’ policy implicitly pursued through the RAE is an optimal allocation strategy only if all departments in all disciplines are of the generalist variety, i.e. each pursues a research path through all its stages. Conversely, the RAE‐induced research allocation minimizes efficiency if applied to specialist departments, when resources are concentrated on one specific research obstacle. It is argued that the RAE should not take the organization of University research as exogenous, but rather should encourage specialization. All results are obtained by applying to University research concepts and solutions borrowed from the mathematical theory of systems reliability.     

Imagination and society. The affective side of institutions

Since the contributions by D. North [(1990). Institutions, institutional change, and economic performance. New York: CUP] and his Nobel Prize lecture [(1994). Economic performance through time, Nobel Prize Lecture. The American Economic Review, 84(3), 359–368], the relationship between mind and institutions has been increasingly investigated by economists. Mantzavinos, North, and Shariq [(2004). Learning, institutions, and economic performance. Perspectives on Politics, 2(1), 75–84] introduced the expression cognitive institutionalism in order to define this stream of research. In the first part of the paper we discuss some recent findings of the cognitive approach to institutions and its roots in the history of economic ideas. We also claim that in such an approach, no place has yet been found for a crucial faculty of the human mind, imagination. We then explore the concept of radical imaginary developed by Cornelius Castoriadis in his book The Imaginary Institution of Society (1975; 1987). From the perspective of cognitive economics, and on the grounds of Castoriadis’ legacy, we aim at highlighting some basic mechanisms of interaction between imagination, affectivity and institutions.

THE 2005 LAWRENCE R. KLEIN LECTURE: EMERGENT CLASS STRUCTURE*

This article presents a model of the emergent class structure, in which a society inhabited by inherently identical households may be endogenously split into the rich bourgeoisie and the poor proletariat. For some parameter values, the model has no steady state where all households remain equally wealthy. In this case, the model predicts emergent class structure or the rise of class societies. Even if every household starts with the same amount of wealth, the society will experience “symmetry‐breaking” and will be polarized into two classes in steady state, where the rich maintain a high level of wealth partly due to the presence of the poor, who have no choice but to work for the rich at a wage rate strictly lower than the “fair” value of labor. The nonexistence of the equal steady state means that a one‐shot redistribution of wealth would not be effective, as wealth inequality and the class structure would always reemerge. Thus, the class structure is an inevitable feature of capitalism. For other parameter values, on the other hand, the model has the unique steady state, which is characterized by perfect equality. In this case, the model predicts dissipating class structure or the fall of class societies. Even if the society starts with significant wealth inequality, labor demand by the rich employers pushes up the wage rate so much that workers will escape from the poverty and eventually catch up with the rich, eliminating wealth inequality and the class structure in the long run. In an extension, we introduce self‐employment, which not only provides the poor with an alternative to working for the rich, but also provides the rich with an alternative to investment that creates jobs. Due to this dual nature of self‐employment, the effects of self‐employment turn out to be quite subtle. Yet, within the present framework, it is possible to offer a complete characterization of the steady states even in the presence of self‐employment.     

Growing through Cycles in an Infinitely Lived Agent Economy

This paper extends the analysis of K. Matsuyama (Econometrica67 (1999), 335–347) to the case of an infinitely lived representative agent economy. The economy grows endogenously through endogenous fluctuations, perpetually moving back and forth between two phases. In one phase, there is no innovation, the market structure is competitive, and the economy grows solely by capital accumulation. In the other phase, new goods are introduced and the market structure is monopolistic. In the long run, both investment and innovation grow at the same rate, but the economy alternates between the periods of high investment and the periods of higher innovation. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E32, O11.     

Stochastic innovation and product market organization

Summary This paper analyzes how different types of product market organization affect firms' R&D investments in a stochastic innovation framework. Product market competition determines payoffs to successful and unsuccessful firms. Restrictions on the research project success probability distribution are identified that yield an invariance result for expenditure per R&D project. The impact of the number of firms (n) on the amount of market R&D is shown to be sensitive to product market organization. For a major process innovation, firms undertake more R&D projects under Cournot product market competition than under Bertrand competition, forn sufficiently large. A numerical example is used to illustrate welfare tradeoffs.Tom Lyon, Herman Quirmbach, Ferenc Szidarovszky, Mark Walker and two anonymous referees gave us helpful comments and suggestions on prior versions of this paper. Lucy Atkinson provided expert research assistance on numerical computations. Special thanks to Ted Bergstrom who gave us valuable suggestions about the first proposition.     

On disequilibrium savings and public consumption

Conclusions A particular aspect of the present paper is the introduction of specific policy measures for the government, whose behavior on the goods market was described in earlier work as purely exogenous, like in Malinvaud. In our context, the government appears as an active economic agent, acting at absorbing any excess supply or reducing any excess demand on the goods market. Though this behavior may look somewhat arbitrary, it has the advantage to force the state of the economy towards a SME if combined with natural endogenous behavior of the other agents! Furthermore, it does not contradict observed policies through which governments stimulate or restrain economic activity via purchases or fiscal and monetary policies. Perhaps alternative policies, like direct actions on the labor market by supplying (non-productive) jobs or unemployment compensations, could have done as well: this remains an open door for further research. The preceding feature also contrasts with the recent work done by V. Böhm (1978) in a macroeconomic set up. In this paper, he studies the stability of stationary Keynesian unemployment or stationary repressed inflation states but without imposing a particular policy on the government. Comparing his work with ours, it is easily verified that if the government would keep its consumption at the levelg ^*, the SME would be stable if the economy starts out in Keynesian unemployment and unstable if the economy starts out in repressed inflation, confirming Böhm's result.Our analysis is related to an earlier work of Archibald and Lipsey (1958), dealing with the adjustment of the economy to a Stationary Equilibrium after a change in real balances. The Quantity Theory of Money postulates that along a SME, a change in the price and the wage rate from (p,w) to (p,w) leads to an adjustment in the level of stationary money holdings from m_i ^* to m_i ^*, m_i ^*=_i ^* (p,w). In this paper, Archibald and Lipsey suggest that the economy follows a sequence of temporary market equilibria: Starting from a change in real balances,prices adjust at each period through a tâtonnement process so as to match supply and demand. Our paper proposes an alternative path: At each period,quantities adjust through a tâtonnement process at constant prices.This paper is a revised version of CORE Discussion Paper 7701. We wish to thank Paul Champsaur, Jacques Drèze, Werner Hildenbrand and Reinhard John for stimulating discussions. We are grateful to Volker Böhm for valuable comments and criticisms.Research supported by the Fonds National Belge de la Recherche Scientifique.     

The cost-effectiveness of solifenacin vs. trospium in the treatment of patients with overactive bladder in the German National Health Service

Objective:

To carry out a cost–utility analysis comparing initial treatment of patients with overactive bladder (OAB) with solifenacin 5?mg/day versus either trospium 20?mg twice a day or trospium 60?mg/day from the perspective of the German National Health Service.

Methods:

A decision analytic model with a 3 month cycle was developed to follow a cohort of OAB patients treated with either solifenacin or trospium during a 1 year period. Costs and utilities were accumulated as patients transitioned through the four cycles in the model. Some of the solifenacin patients were titrated from 5?mg to 10?mg/day at 3 months. Utility values were obtained from the published literature and pad use was based on a US resource utilization study. Adherence rates for individual treatments were derived from a United Kingdom general practitioner database review. The change in the mean number of urgency urinary incontinence episodes/day from after 12 weeks was the main outcome measure. Baseline effectiveness values for solifenacin and trospium were calculated using the Poisson distribution. Patients who failed second-line therapy were referred to a specialist visit. Results were expressed in terms of incremental cost–utility ratios.

Results:

Total annual costs for solifenacin, trospium 20?mg and trospium 60?mg were €970.01, €860.05 and €875.05 respectively. Drug use represented 43%, 28% and 29% of total costs and pad use varied between 45% and 57%. Differences between cumulative utilities were small but favored solifenacin (0.6857 vs. 0.6802 to 0.6800). The baseline incremental cost–effectiveness ratio ranged from €16,657 to €19,893 per QALY.

Limitations:

The difference in cumulative utility favoring solifenacin was small (0.0055–0.0057 QALYs). A small absolute change in the cumulative utilities can have a marked impact on the overall incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) and care should be taken when interpreting the results.

Conclusion:

Solifenacin would appear to be cost-effective with an ICER of no more than €20,000/QALY. However, small differences in utility between the alternatives means that the results are sensitive to adjustments in the values of the assigned utilities, effectiveness and discontinuation rates.     

Property and Economic Power as Issues in Institutional Economics

In the first part of this two-part paper, I presented an "irenic" reconciliation of the three apparently contradictory definitions of "institution" within original institutional economics (OIE), employing the methodology of critical institutionalism. The critical institutionalist reconciliation of these definitions conceptualizes institutions as an emergent process by which the internal and necessary relations of social structure as collective action, mediated through agency, results in the control, expansion, and liberation of the individual action of social actors in transactions. In short, an institution is the emergent process of social structure actualized in transactions (social action). Institutions, therefore, not only have a structural existence, but also an actual existence as they are the process of the emergence of the actual (in transactions) from the structural. Institutions are multi-level processes and cannot be reduced to structures, actions, behaviors, or patterns of behaviors. In this part, I demonstrate the significance of this reconciliation in two areas. The first is its ability to further differentiate the institutional definition of economics as "the science of social provisioning" from the mainstream definition of economics as "a relationship between ends and scarce means" by decomposing the institutional definition into its productive and distributive processes. The second is its usefulness in modeling the interaction of non-economic social institutions with economic institutions at varying levels of detail. I also introduce critical institutional analysis, and use as a method, for model-building and use it to build models of communal, feudal, and industrial capitalist economies.     

Strange brew: The antinomies of distribution in W.S. Jevons' Theory of Political Economy *

Abstract

In the Preface to the second edition of his Theory of Political Economy (1879), W. Stanley Jevons announced an extraordinary turn in his analysis as he abandoned much of the explanatory framework used in the body of the text to explain cost of production and distribution. It is shown here that, when the Theory is read in the context of the objective and structure of Jevons' distribution analysis, the turn can be explained as Jevons' response to the realization that he was only able to reconcile his analysis of cost of production and of distribution in a special case.     

The Last Half-Century,Societal Change and Politics in America

In a series of articles and books, John Walker and Harold Vatter extended the arguments made earlier by Evsey Domar that the U.S. economy suffers from chronically insufficient demand that leads to growth below capacity. Their analysis of secular growth complements the well-known writings of Hyman Minsky, who also emphasized the role of the “big government” and the “big bank” in stabilizing an unstable economy over the cycle. Like Minsky, Vatter and Walker argued that U.S. capitalism has evolved through several distinct forms, although they characterize the last one hundred years as a period of secular stagnation. This article will summarize, provide support for, and extend the Vatter and Walker approach, concluding with an examination of some of the dangers facing the U.S. economy today.     

Wealth and sensibility. The historical outcome of better living conditions for all according to Adam Smith

In this paper, I argue that Smith's commercial society is characterised more by restraint of self-command than by restraint of emotions through self-command, as usually stated. According to Smith, the appropriate degree of self-command varies with historical circumstances: better living conditions for all favour relaxation of self-command and lead people to express their sentiments more freely. I thus highlight a crucial link in Smith's thought between variations in general economic conditions and variations in moral judgement on the expression of emotions, or, in other words, between The Theory of Moral Sentiments and the Wealth of Nations.     

Constructing a value-based healthcare system for hypertensive patients through changing payment mode: evidence from a comparative study in rural China

Objective: To construct a value-based healthcare system for rural Chinese hypertensive patients through an increasing outpatient care reimbursement ratio.

Methods: This comparative study sampled two similar counties, Dangyang County and Zhijiang County, in Hubei Province of China, as the intervention group and the control group, respectively. The Social Health Insurance Fund of the intervention group budgeted 600 yuan per capita per year to insured patients with third stage hypertension to cover their outpatient expenditures, while the outpatient expenditures of the control group were not covered by its Social Health Insurance Fund. The inpatient expenditure reimbursement policies in both groups were not adjusted during the study. Value improvement in this study was defined as reduction in medical costs and improvement in health outcomes within the pilot healthcare system. A propensity score matching model combined with a difference-in-differences model was used to estimate the changes in medical costs and health outcomes.

Results: In total, 1,673 pairs of patients were enrolled into statistical analysis after the propensity score matching. The intervention increased per capita annual outpatient expenditure by 81.2 (+31.8%) yuan (p?>?.05), but decreased the per capita annual inpatient expenditure and total medical expenditure by 475.4 (–40.7%) yuan and 394.2 (–27.7%) yuan, respectively (p?p?p?p?p?>?.05).

Conclusion: Increasing the outpatient expenditures, the reimbursement ratio was beneficial to the value of the healthcare system for hypertensive patients. Outpatient care for patients with chronic diseases should be prioritized for rural China and healthcare settings with inadequate health insurance funds.     

On the dynamics of U.S. consumer sentiment and economic policy assessment

We utilize the Michigan Surveys of Consumers data to first investigate the dynamic relationship between consumers’ assessment of current and future economic conditions (Index of Current Economic Conditions (ICC) and Index of Consumer Expectations (ICE)), and then examine how these assessments are influenced by deterioration/improvement in consumers’ appraisal of economic policies of the government (GP). We further assess how deterioration/improvement in ICC and ICE influences GP. For 1978–2015, our findings first indicate that ICC and ICE are cointegrated and both respond to disequilibrium to restore the long-run equilibrium relationship. Second, deterioration in GP results in deterioration in both ICC and ICE. Improvement in GP, however, results in improvement in ICE with no impact on ICC. Third, deterioration in both ICC and ICE results in deterioration in GP. Improvement in ICE results in improvement in GP, but improvement in ICC has no impact on GP. The observed asymmetries are in line with ‘negativity bias’, whereby people tend to give more weight to negative events than to positive ones.     

Bridging the gap between technological possibilities and people:: Involving people in the early phases of technology development

Technology provides endless promising possibilities to support people's lives. In reality, it is not a matter of what is possible, but rather a matter of how and when technology will be integrated, accepted and adopted by people. However, conventionally within organizations the areas of technology development and market research are not closely related nor applied in the process of innovation and do not always share the same scope. In that sense there is a gap between the potential of technology and humankind's preferences.This paper discusses the current areas of technology development and market research in a business environment and proposes an integrated approach to bridge the gap between technology and people, in which people, rather than market sizes become central in the development of technology. In addition, it also describes how this approach of people-driven innovation is brought into practice through the development of early experience demonstrators. The core focus of this paper is on the processes and practices regarding innovation within an organization, rather than the adoption of innovation by users or the rate of the adoption of a marketed solution (Rogers, 1995 [E.M. Rogers, Diffusion of Innovations, The Free Press, New York, 1995. [1]]).     

The Role of a Firm’s Net Cash Payouts in Leland’s (1994) Model

We study the effects of introducing payouts on corporate debt and optimal capital structure in a structural credit risk model à la Leland (1994) . We find that increasing the payout parameter not only affects the endogenous bankruptcy level, which is decreased, but modifies the magnitude of a change on the endogenous failure level as a consequence of an increase in risk‐free rate, corporate tax rate, riskiness of the firm and coupon payments. This simple analytical framework is able to capture realistic insights about optimal leverage, spreads and default probabilities more in line with historical norms (if compared to Leland’s results) and closer to predictions obtained through more sophisticated models.     

Examining and interpreting responsiveness of the Diabetes Medication Satisfaction measure

Abstract

Objective: Treatment satisfaction (TS) is an important patient reported outcome (PRO) in diabetes as it is correlated with outcomes necessary for optimal treatment (e.g., compliance, self-management behaviour). The objective of this study was to examine the responsiveness of the DiabMedSat, a disease-specific PRO measure, assessing Overall, Burden, Efficacy and Symptom TS.

Methods: The DiabMedSat was included in an open label, observational study of the safety and efficacy of biphasic insulin aspart 30 (NovoMix 30) in routine practice with type 2 diabetes. Responsiveness analyses, examining both internal and external responsiveness, were conducted and minimally important differences (MID) assessed.

Results: In 18,817 patients, all TS scores significantly improved after 26 weeks of treatment (p<0.001). The effect sizes for these changes were above 0.5 indicating that the ability to detect change was moderate-to-large in size. Significant differences were found for all TS scores comparing patients who met their HbA_1c goal, who improved but did not meet goal and who did not improve (p<0.01), and for patients who experienced a minor hypoglycaemic event and those who did not (p<0.001). DiabMedSat scores were able to detect changes in patients’ own global rating of satisfaction (MID ranging from 5.3 to 11.7) and in physician-rated satisfaction with patients’ HbA_1c improvement (MID ranging from 5.3 to 10.2).

Conclusions: In the context of an observational study, the DiabMedSat has been shown to be highly responsive to change and can be considered as an acceptable PRO measure for TS in diabetes.