REGIME-SWITCHING IN AUSTRALIAN SHORT-TERM INTEREST RATES

This paper applies a generalized regime-switching (GRS) model of the short-term interest rate to Australian data. The model allows the short rate to exhibit both mean reversion and conditional heteroscedasticity and nests the popular generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) and regime-switching specifications. It is shown that empirical estimates of many popular interest rate models provide curious results which imply that innovations to the short rate process are extremely persistent, and that the short rate is potentially non-stationary. The source of these curious results, which are also present in US and European interest rates, is identified in the context of the GRS model, which is shown, via specification and forecasting tests, to capture the features of Australian short-term interest rate data better than existing models. The stochastic process of short-term interest rates in Australia is compared with evidence from the US and Europe, highlighting a number of important differences.     

当“利率市场化”站在银行门前

6月8日、7月6日,人民银行两次在下调金融机构存款利率的同时放宽存贷款利率的浮动区间,存贷款利率市场化迈出实质性一步。7月2日,人民银行发布了《中国金融稳定报告（2012）》,对2011年我国金融体系的稳定状况进行了全面评估,报告指出,将进一步深化利率市场化和汇率形成机制等重点领域改革,为保持经济长期平稳较快增长创造良好的金融环境。这表明现在有差别的利率时代,定价机制将朝着“随行就市”进一步发展。     

构建商业银行利率风险预警体系的思路

我国的利率市场化改革源于经济体制转型与金融制度的变迁,是中国“入世”后,经济金融融入世界经济、金融一体化的必然选择．从1996年放开银行间拆借市场利率开始．到2004年放开商业银行贷款浮动利率上限,城乡信用社贷款利率浮动上限扩大到基准利率的2．3倍,我国的利率市场化稳步推进并取得实质性突破。在新的利率框架下,商业银行已经由利率管制下的被动接受者,