Inflation,Taxation, and Interest Rates

This paper demonstrates that the response of nominal interest rates to changes in inflationary expectations should lie between that predicted by the “Fisher” and “Darby” effects. The exact nature of the response will depend on the relative size of the income and capital gains tax rates, and the relative size of the derivatives of investment and savings to their respective after-tax real rates. The other major conclusion of this paper is that capital gains taxation offsets the negative effect on investment produced by treating depreciation on a historic rather than a replacement cost basis.     

The Impact on Interest Rates of Unemployment Announcements and Their Revisions

The announced changes in monthly employment reports and in weekly new unemployment claim reports are based on new levels and on revisions to previous levels. We analyze the effect on interest rates of surprises to these two separate components of the changes. We find that for weekly reports the effect on interest rates of the new level is greater than the effect of the revisions. For monthly employment reports, the two components’ effects have similar strength.     

中国货币供应与通货膨胀背离现象分析

近年来,中国货币供应一直保持较快的增长速度,同时通货膨胀水平持续在低位运行。然而通过深入系统地分析后,这种看似乐观的现象背后却有很多值得深思的内容。本文从探求中国货币供应与通货膨胀背离的原因角度出发,首先运用Almon模型对我国货币供应与通货膨胀关系进行了实证分析,之后从银行资金运用的角度,结合生产领域、房地产市场和股票市场三大领域系统地分析了我国货币供应的去向,并提出了相应的政策建议。     

Expected Inflation, Interest Rates, and Stock Returns

This paper documents a long-lived asymmetrical relationship between interest rate changes and subsequent stock returns. Drops in interest rates are followed by twelve months of excess stock returns, while increases in interest rates have little effect. The results are robust to the choices of short-term interest rate and stock index. These findings cannot be explained by Geske and Roll's [10] reversed causality argument; nor do they appear to result from periods of unusual interest rates or stock returns. Since interest rate changes are generally used as proxies for changes in expected inflation, the results provide new insights into previous research on inflation and stock returns, and there are important implications for the literature on time-varying risk premia.     

The Purchasing Power of Money and Nominal Interest Rates: A Re-Examination

While it has been known for some time that, under uncertainty, the original version of the Fisher hypothesis is not precisely correct, empirical researchers have largely ignored this fact. Such an omission has possibly resulted in erroneous conclusions concerning other hypotheses; most notably the impact of prices on the real economy. This paper clarifies some of the previous interpretations of the existing empirical literature and provides a theoretical version of the relation between prices and interest rates. Empirical tests based on both the Livingston survey data and data from time-series forecasting models provide support for the Fisher effect and the hypothesis that only covariance risk is priced in the Treasury bill market.     

我国房地产价格波动与中央银行货币政策调控——来自货币供应量、汇率和利率的证据

本文通过VAR-MVGARCH模型研究了我国房地产价格增长率分别与货币供应量、汇率和利率的线性和波动关系.研究结果表明,汇率的变化对房地产价格增长率的变动会产生显著的线性影响,但是货币供应量和利率的变化对房地产价格增长率变动的线性影响不大.本文认为,尽管货币供应量、汇率和利率对房地产价格增长率存在波动溢出效应,但由于它们与房地产价格增长率的相关性波动剧烈,同时考虑到不断变化的货币政策“盯住”房地产价格波动的困难以及有悖于中央银行保持货币政策“连续性和稳定性”的目标,当前最好实施汇率工具盯住房地产价格增长率的均值化,才容易产生显著效果.     

论货币与通胀关系的背离

长期以来,中国的货币增长和通货膨胀之间保持着良好的同步关系。但2010年下半年以来,这种稳定的关系似乎被打破,货币与通胀的同步关系出现趋势性背离。这无疑给经济预测以及宏观调控带来了极大的挑战。这种趋势性背离的根本原因是什么,未来这种背离是否仍将继续以及货币政策将如何应对,这些都是摆在我们面前的重要课题。本文将尝试从多个角度对这些问题进行剖析,以期得到若干基本结论和政策建议。     

Real Interest Rates and Inflation: An Ex-Ante Empirical Analysis

We develop a method of measuring ex-ante real interest rates using prices of index and nominal bonds. Employing this method and newly available data, we directly test the Fisher hypothesis that the real rate of interest is independent of inflation expectations. We find a negative correlation between ex-ante real interest rates and expected inflation. This contradicts the Fisher hypothesis but is consistent with the theories of Mundell and Tobin, Darby and Feldstein, and Stulz. We also find that nominal interest rates include an inflation risk premium that is positively related to a proxy for inflation uncertainty.     

The Effect of Money Shocks on Interest Rates in the Presence of Conditional Heteroskedasticity

Most current empirical work finds no evidence that money shocks lower interest rates. We show that these nonresults are mainly due to a failure to model the conditional heteroskedasticity of interest rates. Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) models find a significant liquidity effect where ordinary least squares (OLS) models do not. The existence of a liquidity effect is found using different models and sample periods when ARCH models are used in estimation, but never when OLS is employed.     

通货膨胀、货币供给与房地产市场关系的实证研究——基于后危机时代数据的考察

我国在2009年底推出的经济政策导致房价和物价不断攀升,央行虽然采取紧缩措施进行应对,但物价和房价仍处高位。对我国货币供给、通货膨胀及房地产之间关系进行理论和实证分析的结果显示:货币供给增加能引起物价和房价上涨;房价上涨能引起物价上涨等。因此,为了更好地应对物价波动,货币政策需关注资产价格,同时应谨慎使用货币政策应对资产泡沫,并密切注意货币流动结构,维持货币供给流向与实体经济发展相适应。     

我国货币供应量与通货膨胀关系的实证分析

本文利用1986年以来货币供应量与通货膨胀的数据,运用图示法和模型检验,对各层次货币供应量与通货膨胀的相关性、因果关系进行分析检验.结果显示:各层次货币供应量中,M2与CPI存在较强相关性;在各时间阶段中,1997-2008年M2与CPI的相关性较1986-1996年强;CPI与M2存在格兰杰因果关系.文章进一步对检验结果进行了阐释,进而提出政策建议.     

合理控制货币供应量是当前防范通胀的核心内容

经济形势面临新通胀因素的挑战,突出表现在国内外通胀压力联动,货币流动性宽裕的局面不会改变,近期对房地产市场的严厉调控可能带来资金的"挤出效应";外汇占款成为基础贷币供应的主要来源,央行的外汇占款冲销干预不够和宽松信贷造成流动性泛滥;应对通胀必须切实把好流动性总闸门,首先应控制货币发行增量,这就必须让贷币政策回归物价本位、控制M 2增长率和信贷规模、合理运用货币政策工具、合理引导外汇占款;其次.应合理疏导既有的货币存量,可采取的方法包括加息、扩大直接融资、人民币升值、财政政策回归稳健等.     

Expected Inflation and Interest Rates in a Multi-asset Model: A Note

This paper analyzes the effect of expected inflation on nominal interest rates, in a theoretical model with money and two different bond types. The inclusion of three assets instead of the usual two causes the effect of expected inflation on the interest rates to deviate from unity. Depending on the sizes of the wealth and interest rate effects on the various asset demands, the effect of expected inflation could even be negative. Several special cases are also considered, and the implications for the interpretation of empirical results are discussed.     

International Interest Rates,Exchange Rates,and the Stochastic Structure of Supply

In a dual-currency, flexible exchange rate model, both nominal and real foreign exchange premia depend on investor risk attitudes, consumption parameters, and the stochastic structure of currency and commodity supplies. When supplies are random, their joint correlation structure determines the sign of the premia. If the money supplies are identically distributed, then all foreign exchange premia, regardless of the currency of denomination, are zero. A positive correlation between the value of a country's currency and its nominal interest rate need not indicate real interest rate movements. Relative bond prices can be negatively correlated with the terms of trade.     

Reserves Announcements and Interest Rates: Does Monetary Policy Matter?

The author provides evidence on the perceived existence of strong liquidity effect. The analysis is based on the response of the term structure of interest rates to the weekly Federal Reserve announcements of bank reserves during the post-October 1979 period. It is shown that unanticipated changes in the mix between borrowed and nonborrowed reserves cause expected real interest rates to change after the announcement because they provide information about a future change in the supply of money. A precise model is developed and tested during subperiods of nonborrowed and borrowed reserves targeting by the Fed.     

货币供给、通货膨胀和粮食价格波动互动关系研究

在VAR模型和方差分解基础上,利用1997年以来的月度数据,分析货币供应量、通货膨胀和粮食价格之间的关系。结果显示：通货膨胀对粮食价格有显著影响,存在货币供应量、通货膨胀到粮食价格变动这一传导途径,同时发现通货膨胀有较强的自身惯性,通过抑制粮食价格来控制通货膨胀是无效的。     

基础货币被动投放下利率与货币供应量的关系

货币供应量是我国货币政策的中介目标,影响货币供应量的一个关键变量是利率.一般来讲,利率与一国的货币供应量为反相关关系,但这一关系在我国基础货币被动投放的情况下需要重新考量.鉴于我国处在利率市场化的过渡时期,管制利率与正在培养中的市场基准利率Shibor并存,应该通过Shibor作为中间变量来分析央行调控管制利率对货币供应量的影响.     

The Behavior of Interest Rates

The evidence in Fama and Bliss (1987) that forward interestrates forecast future spot interest rates for horizons beyonda year repeats in the out-of-sample 1986–2004 period.But the inference that this forecast power is due to mean reversionof the spot rate toward a constant expected value no longerseems valid. Instead, the predictability of the spot rate capturedby forward rates seems to be due to mean reversion toward atime-varying expected value that is subject to a sequence ofapparently permanent shocks that are on balance positive tomid-1981 and on balance negative thereafter.