PROJECTING CANADIAN DAIRY FARM STRUCTURE USING MARKOV PROCESSES

This paper reports on an application of the Markov chain process to an analysis of the size structure of the primary Canadian dairy industry. On the basis of observed changes in the size distribution of "census" farms with milk cows from 1961 to 1966, projections were made of the numbers of these farms by herd size for the years 1971 and 1981. It is projected that by the year 1981 there will be 109,200 farms with milk cows in Canada, a 51 per cent decline from the numbers in 1966. All of the decrease will occur in the smaller size herds of less than 33 cows. Farms with herd sizes larger than this are expected to increase in numbers. Projections were made separately for Ontario and Quebec.     

Economic Analysis of the Policy for Accreditation of Dairy Farms Free of Bovine Brucellosis and Tuberculosis: Challenges for Small and Large Producers in Brazil

One of the cornerstones of the National Program for Control and Eradication of Bovine Brucellosis and Tuberculosis in Brazil is the voluntary accreditation of free herds. We developed a stochastic cost–benefit analysis model for two types of dairy herds (high yield Holstein‐Zebu crossbred females and lower productivity smaller scale herds) to identify the technical and economic constraints of this process. The initial prevalence of infected animals and the impact of the disease in the structure and performance of the herd were derived from secondary data. Information on the costs and benefits of herd sanitation were compiled into a cost–benefit model at the herd level. The last step consisted of a scenario simulation to evaluate the impact of alternative policies to the certification process. For each scenario, we calculate the probability over time of a Benefit–Cost Ratio greater than 1 and of an Internal Rate of Return above 1% (the discount rate used in the model). Results show that larger and more intensive dairy farms, and also herds affected by brucellosis compared with tuberculosis‐positive herds, are more likely to achieve financial gains from the certification investment. The compensation for culled animals is important in the initial phase of herd sanitation and the premium payment on milk would help farmers to achieve a return on the investment over time. The model can be adapted to different and dynamic production, epidemiological and economic settings.     

Efficacitè technique et coûts de production dans les secteurs laitiers du Québec et de l'Ontario

This study aims to estimate the level of technical efficiency in milk production and to analyze the relationship between the costs of production, the level of technical efficiency and farm size. Furthermore, the socio-economic variables that characterize the most efficient farms and those producing at lower cost are identified. The results indicate that in Quebec, the level of technical efficiency increases with herd size, but this increase is very small. In Ontario, herd size is not significant to explain technical efficiency. The level of education, the participation in milk recording programs, expenditures per cow fort are and artificial insemination, the quality of hay and the number of years as member of a management club are a11 variables that characterize efficient farms.     

Optimum Replacement Policies for the Control of Subclinical Mastitis due to S.aureus in Dairy Cows

A dynamic program was used to establish the optimum replacement policy for dairy herds, taking into account subclinical mastitis caused by the bacteria Staphylococcus aureus. This particular pathogen is resistant to normal drug therapies and therefore culling is the major method of control. Methods are described to account for output losses due to yield loss and a reduction in milk price caused by extra somatic cells secreted into the milk by infected cows. Extra culling was justified in both infected and control herds in order to reduce the level of infection in the herd. The method described allows replacement policy to be treated as control expenditure rather than an output loss in the economic analysis of farm animal disease. This approach will become even more important as consumers demand an alternative to the prophylactic use of antibiotics in agriculture without compromising food quality and safety.     

A VOLUNTARY POLICY FOR REDUCING EEC MILK PRODUCTION

This paper describes and demonstrates a policy for reducing EEC milk production. The policy is a combination of (real) price pressure for all milk producers coupled with optional direct income support aimed at producers with small to medium herds. The method of calculating and paying the income aid encourages producers with small/medium-sized herds to reduce the size of their herds. If the majority of small-scale producers participate it is estimated that the policy would rapidly improve the balance between Community milk production and demand and lead to considerable budgetary savings.     

Technical efficiency,herd size,and exit intentions in U.S. dairy farms

The U.S. dairy industry has seen major restructuring in recent decades. A sharp decline in the number of U.S. dairy farms and an increase in average herd sizes have accompanied exits, which have been concentrated among smaller herds. Given that more productive farms are better positioned to increase operation size and to continue operation, we hypothesize that the more technically efficient farms are better able to expand and also have stronger incentives to continue production. Using data from the USDA's 2010 ARMS Phase III, Dairy Production Practices and Costs and Returns Report, we estimate technical efficiency using stochastic production frontier analysis with endogenous inputs. The efficiency estimate is then incorporated into the analysis of exit intention and herd size. The results confirm our hypotheses that smaller and less efficient farms are more likely to exit and that more efficient dairy farms tend to expand herd size. Moreover, farms without successors but with older and more educated operators are more likely to exit.     

Adoption of Food Safety Practices in Milk Production: Implications for Dairy Farmers in India

This study investigates the status, estimates the cost, and identifies the determinants of compliance with food safety measures in milk production in India. The study is based on the cross section primary data collected at the farm level in 3 states of India, namely, Bihar, Punjab, and Uttar Pradesh, in the year 2007. These states capture the geographical and institutional diversity of milk production and marketing in the country. The study shows that the status of compliance with food safety measures at the dairy farm level is not encouraging and a lot of efforts are needed to bridge this gap. The adoption intensity of food safety practices shows wide inter- and intraregional variations. This intensity depicts a positive relationship with herd size. The additional cost of compliance with food milk safety measures reveals an inverse relationship with herd size. The adoption intensity of food safety practices has been found to be influenced by the dairy farmers' characteristics. Herd size, education level, expertise in dairying, and integration of dairy farmers with modern milk supply chain have positive influence on the adoption intensity of food safety practices at the farm level. The positive relationship between adoption intensity of food safety measures and farmers' realization of milk price would influence farmers for greater adoption of these measures.     

Determining farm effects attributable to the introduction and use of a dairy management information system in The Netherlands

Yearly production and reproduction data on dairy farms in The Netherlands were obtained to determine whether management information systems significantly improved herd performance variables (management information systems (MIS) effects). The analysis included 357 adopters of a management information system and 357 herds were used as controls. The data comprised years 1987 through 1996, and included for the adopters both the ‘before’ and ‘after’ period. Panel data analysis enabled to estimate MIS effects both within and between farms, allowing for a separation of farm‐specific effects and common (trend) effects. Adoption and use of a management information system resulted in a significant annual increase in rolling herd average milk (carrier) and protein production of 62 and 2.36 kg per cow, respectively. Calving interval was shortened by 5 days. The pay‐back period was approximately 5 years of the system (including the hardware), and therefore, MIS appears to be economically profitable.     

HERD SIZE AND UNIT COSTS OF PRODUCTION IN THE ENGLAND AND WALES DAIRY SECTOR

This paper examines the relationship between herd size and unit costs of production in the England and Wales dairy sector. Following the two-stage estimation procedure of Dawson & Hubbard (1987), longrun average cost (LAC) functions are estimated from cross-section data for five separate years between 1976/7 and 1986/7. Results show that the LAC curves are U-shaped but highly skewed, implying that considerable economies of size are present at low output levels but diseconomies at larger levels are much less marked. Over time, technological change in particular has been shifting the LAC curves downward and to the right and away from the sector's long-run equilibrium. The differential shift of cost curves, depending on the size of production, implies that technological change has been biased in favour of larger herds.     

Does population pressure induce farm intensification? Empirical evidence from Tigrai Region,Ethiopia

The scarcity of land for crop and livestock production is critical in countries with growing populations. The idea that increasing population density leads to natural resource depletion and economic failure, as predicted by Malthus, or rather to farm intensification, as hypothesized by Boserup, motivates this research. This article examines how high population pressure in northern Ethiopia influences smallholders’ farm intensification by applying recursive estimation with a control function approach using data from 518 randomly selected farmers. Although our empirical results are more in favor of the Boserupian hypothesis, the findings also reveal that both Malthusian and Boserupian forces coexist. Consistent with Malthus theory, high population pressure is found to be associated with small farm size and herd size. Population pressure affected both technology use (breed cow, stall feeding, and modern cattle feed) and output supply (milk yield, milk income, and straw output). As predicted by Boserup's theory, the use of modern input and output supply initially increases with increasing population pressure but declines again when population densities pass a critical threshold (800 persons/km²), supporting Malthus’ hypothesis. The estimation results also revealed that both milk and straw supply responded positively to prices. Free grazing and stall feeding are found to be complementary activities. Likewise, crop farm income and off‐farm job have a nonlinear relation with population pressure, implying that both initially increase and then decrease with rising population pressure.     

SIMULTANEITY IN THE UK DAIRY SECTOR*

Because of the high degree of interdependence in the livestock sector, the endogenous variables of econometric models should be simultaneously determined. This paper describes the specification, estimation and evaluation of a model of the UK dairy sector in which the herd size, number of culls, replacement heifer price and milk price are determined simultaneously. The major policy conclusion that emerges from the model is that any attempt to increase the price of milk received by farmers via a structural change in the policy rule used to fix the price will be offset by over 50% as a result of increases in the supply of milk.     

Tracing the evolution of the aggregate U.S. milk supply elasticity using a herd dynamics model

The U.S. dairy sector is characterized by increasing volatility of milk prices, and consolidation in production as evidenced by declining number of dairy farms with an increasingly larger share of milk supplied from a small number of very large farms. Using aggregate national data, we build a mixed‐frequency herd dynamics econometric model of the U.S. milk supply that updates and substantially amends the model first proposed by Chavas and Klemme. We implement a dynamic residual‐based bootstrap technique that can be used in testing for changes in nonmarginal simulated long‐run supply responsiveness, and trace the evolution of long‐run milk supply elasticity from 1975 through 2010. Several papers in the past have suggested that long‐run supply elasticity increases with dairy farm size, which implies that increased importance of large farms would increase aggregate long‐run supply responsiveness. Contrary to this conclusion, we find a declining trend in long‐run supply elasticity from 1975 through 2005. Persistence of such a decline would be a major cause for worry, as ever larger price swings would be needed to equilibrate the market in face of demand shocks. However, we find that milk supply is becoming more responsive since 2005 both to milk and feed price changes. Increasing responsiveness to feed prices further justifies focusing the next generation of the dairy policy instruments on managing dairy profit margins rather than just revenue streams.     

A Comparative Analysis of Recombinant Bovine Somatotropin Adoption across Major U.S. Dairy Regions

Trends and determinants in the adoption of recombinant bovine somatotropin are examined using data from across the United States. The core findings are: ( a ) moderate adoption rates and relatively small impacts on national milk production; ( b ) substantial disadoption, farmers who have tried the technology but stopped using it; ( c ) no significant differences in characteristics between adopters and disadopters; and ( d ) major differences between nonadopters and farmers who have tried the technology, with the latter group having significantly higher use rates of complementary, productivity-enhancing technologies and larger herd sizes. This last result holds across states with distinctive herd size distributions.     

ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF SELECTION IN THE DAIRY HERD IN ISRAEL*

The paper reports a study of the operation of the breeding system in the milk herd in Israel. Basic notions in quantitative genetics are explained and incorporated in a simulation model which is used to illustrate and analyse the selection process. Particularly emphasised are the traits common to selection and other research and development effort; among them, search, limited information, and biological and technical constraints. Differential technical changes affected the structure of the milk producing industry and its measured productivity; these effects are discussed in the last part of the paper.     

THE ECONOMIC OPTIMISATION OF SOW REPLACEMENT DECISIONS BY STOCHASTIC DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING

A stochastic dynamic programming model is designed to determine the economic optimal replacement policy in swine breeding herds. This optimal policy maximises the present value of net revenues from sows present in the herd and from subsequent replacement gilts over a given planning horizon. The model also calculates the total extra profit to be expected from trying to retain an individual sow until her optimal lifespan and not replacing her immediately. This total extra profit is an economic index which makes it possible to rank sows within the herd on future profitability and, therefore, can be used as a management guide in culling decisions. For typical Dutch values the optimal replacement decisions result in an average herd life of 3.43 parities. The maximum economic life of sows of average productivity turns out to be 10 parities. All data can easily be adjusted to represent a specific herd or a different region of the world.     

Determinants, differentiation, and development of short-term marginal costs in dairy production: an empirical analysis for selected regions of the EU

This work provides evidence on the determinants, cost differentiation, and development of short‐term marginal costs of dairy farms in important production regions of the European Union. The empirical study is based on the estimation of multi‐input multi‐output Symmetric Generalized McFadden cost functions using an unbalanced panel data set of the European Farm Accountancy Data Network. The results show considerable regional differences in the impact of the outputs, input prices, and fixed factors on marginal costs. Strong evidence can be found that marginal costs decrease over time and is further underlined by the development of derived regional aggregated short‐term supply curves. Marginal cost elasticities and correlation coefficients validate the hypotheses that a high degree of farm specialization, large milk output, and low milk prices are associated with lower marginal costs. Furthermore, the marginal cost spread in the data sample is analyzed. We show that milk output, milk yield, herd size, labor input, and fodder production can be attributed to significant marginal cost differentiation of farms, whereas for crop and animal output, grassland, stock of other animals, and depreciation only minor differentiation can be found.     

What Drives Marginal Abatement Costs of Greenhouse Gases on Dairy Farms? A Meta‐modelling Approach

This paper examines the relationships between the marginal abatement costs (MAC) of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on dairy farms and factors such as herd size, milk yield and available farm labour, on the one hand, and prices, GHG indicators and GHG reduction levels, on the other. A two‐stage Heckman procedure is used to estimate these relationships from a systematically designed set of simulations with a highly detailed mixed integer bio‐economic farm‐level model. The resulting meta‐models are then used to analyse how MAC vary across farm‐level conditions and GHG measures. We find that simpler GHG indicators lead to significantly higher MAC, and that MAC strongly increase beyond a 1–5% emission reduction, depending on farm attributes and the chosen indicator. MAC decrease rapidly with increasing farm size, but the effect levels off beyond a herd size of 40 cows. As expected, the main factors driving gross margins per dairy cow also significantly influence mitigation costs. Our results indicate high variability of MAC on real life farms. In contrast to time consuming simulations with the complex mixed integer bio‐economic programming model, the meta‐models allow the distribution of MAC in a farm population to be efficiently derived and thus could be used to upscale to regional or sector level.     

The contribution of genetics to milk composition: evidence from Spain

This article focuses on the role that genetic progress may play in improving milk quality. Despite important genetic advances in dairy production, the absence of genetic records in farm management databases has precluded empirical production models from explicitly accounting for differences in genetics across herds. The influence of genetics on milk composition is analyzed by splitting milk production into protein, fat, and other components. The article explores some modeling issues associated with the specification of the effect of genetics in this multi‐output technology framework. In particular, genetic indexes are considered as allocable inputs and the remaining inputs as nonallocable. Our results show that genetics have a significant impact on milk composition. In particular, we find that farmers’ income increases by 6.6% when genetic indexes are augmented by one sample standard deviation.     

Returns to smallholder dairying in the Kilimanjaro region,Tanzania

Tanzania is a net importer of dairy products despite its large cattle herd and successive government efforts to promote dairying. This paper draws on survey data to examine the financial attractiveness of dairying to smallholders in an area of high dairy potential on the slopes of Mount Kilimanjaro. On mixed farms in which coffee and bananas are the other main enterprises, producers keep small herds of mainly crossbred and grade cattle, mostly fed in stalls on cut forage and crop residues. Using a herd model, a benefit-cost analysis of dairying was carried out. This showed that at prevailing prices, returns to dairying were around 20%. There was, however, no difference in the returns gained by the larger scale farmers who had more of the grade cows and managed them intensively, compared to those using a less intensive system with lower potential stock. Moreover, the profitability of dairying for the former was underwritten by subsidies on inputs and fuel which are difficult to justify. Policy has apparently over-emphasised improving yields and the development of intensive dairying, and has not been sufficiently concerned with keeping down the costs of dairying.     

Decomposition Measures of Technical Efficiency for Ontario Dairy Farms

Technical efficiency measures for Ontario dairy farms are computed and decomposed into purely technical, congestion and scale efficiency measures using a non-parametric programming approach. Approximately 42% of the farms in the sample are technically efficient, while the major sources of inefficiency for the remaining farms are due to pure technical allocation and to non-optimal scale of production. A censored regression indicate that herd size, milk yield and butterfat content of milk has a positive influence on efficiency, while negative effects are found from the proportion. of total feed purchased and overcapitalization. The variation in optimal scale between herd sizes implies a range of farm sizes will continue to exist, provided the appropriate technology for the scale of operation is chosen.
Des mesures d'efficacité technique pour des fermes laitières en Ontario sont calculées et ensuite décomposées en mesures de rendement techniques d'échelle et de congestion à l'aide d'une approche de programmation non-paramétrique. Environ 42% des fermes dans l'échantillon sont techniquement efficaces. Les principales sources d'inefficacité des autres fermes sont reliées à des problèmes d'allocation technique et d'échelle de production. Une régression censurée indique que la grosseur de troupeau, la production de lait par vache de même que le pourcentage de gras dans le lait ont une influence positive sur le rendement tandis que la proportion de fourrage acheté et la sous-capitalisation ont une influence négative. La variation dans l'échelle optimale de production par grosseur de troupeau laisse sous-entendre qu'on continuera de voir un certain écart dans la taille des fermes laitiéres si les technologies appropriées pour les differences échelles de production sont selectionnées.