THE THEORY OF AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH BENEFITS

This paper describes a new approach to the theory of agricultural research benefits based on component benefits rather than, as is customary, on surpluses. The surplus concept nevertheless emerges when the distribution of the national benefit is considered. Various published methods (Grossfield-Heath, Lindner-Jarrett, Akino-Hayami, Griliches I and II) are derived as special cases of the theory and numerically compared. Applications are briefly considered; Griliches II is used for the variability of crop yields and some typical results for the distribution of benefits are given.     

TAXES,INVESTMENT INCENTIVES AND THE COST OF AGRICULTURAL INPUTS

This paper examines the effects of taxes and investment incentives on relative capital/labour costs on farms of different sizes. Income tax relief reduces the cost of purchased non-capital inputs to farmers, while investment incentives reduce the cost of capital items. A framework is developed for calculating the relative magnitudes of these effects and it is shown that capital costs have been reduced relative to labour costs throughout the post-war period in the U.K. and on large farms (paying a higher tax rate) more than on small farms.     

EVALUATING THE LEVEL AND DISTRIBUTION OF BENEFITS FROM DAIRY INDUSTRY RESEARCH

A model and associated formulae are developed to estimate the size and distribution of benefits generated by different types of research for the Australian dairy industry. Particular attention is given to the influence of policy interventions on the estimates. The estimates of aggregate research benefits differ for free market assumptions versus current policy assumptions, but quantitatively the differences are small. By contrast, estimates of the distribution of benefits between different groups of consumers and farmers are significantly altered by the policy interventions.     

PRIVATISING THE PRODUCTION OF KNOWLEDGE: PROMISE AND PITFALLS FOR AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH AND EXTENSION

In the absence of some form of government intervention, knowledge is a classic public good which will be under-produced because of lack of price excludability. Government intervention may take the form of establishing intellectual property rights, or other means of shielding knowledge-based innovations from imitation or copying. Such intervention offers the prospect of 'privatising' the production of knowledge in the sense that a certain level of private knowledge production may become profitable if producers can appropriate at least part of the benefits of R&D. However, publicly funded R&D or extension still can 'crowd out' private knowledge production by charging lower prices. The principal finding of this study is that such 'crowding out' behaviour may be efficient in the sense of being potentially Pareto superior even if it is at the expense of public funding for so called 'orphan' areas of knowledge production which are privately unprofitable. The reason why conventional conclusions about privatisation and 'crowding out' of private goods need not apply to rural research and extension is that private goods are both rival in consumption and price excludable, while knowledge is intrinsically non rival in consumption even if it can be made price excludable.     

LONG-RUN AVERAGE COST CURVES IN THE ENGLAND AND WALES DAIRY INDUSTRY - REPLY

Burton, Ozanne and Collinson (1993) present an interesting comment on the issue of long-run average cost (LAC) in the dairy industry. Since their results essentially substantiate the conclusions of Hubbard (1993), the following points are offered as further thoughts which may be of relevance in any subsequent analysis and estimation.     

AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH EXPENDITURES AND AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY CHANGE

This note comments on the econometric analysis of the dynamic relationship between agricultural research expenditures and agricultural productivity change. The validity of the Almon restrictions, particularly endpoint restrictions, commonly imposed on the distributed lag is questioned. It is suggested that models incorporating such restrictions may lead to biased estimates of the effects of research spending. More fundamentally, doubts are raised as to whether any meaningful relationship between research spending and productivity change can be established from the available data.     

THE CALCULATION OF RATES OF RETURN ON AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH FROM PRODUCTION FUNCTIONS

A general framework is described whereby, using production functions, the rate of return on additional agricultural R & D can be calculated. This enables existing procedures to be critically reviewed. Illustrative results are given which indicate that the rates of return found in previous studies tend to be overestimates. It is also pointed out that these studies usually refer to well in the past, when the level of the agricultural research investment was generally lower and rates of return consequently larger than might now be expected. It is, however, concluded that the production-function approach needs extension and refinement, and better values of key parameters determined, before it could be used quantitatively as a determinant of research policy.     

A CROSS-COMMODITY APPRAISAL OF DEMAND-RAISING RESEARCH BENEFITS: PORK AND CHICKEN IN AUSTRALIA

A multi-commodity model is developed for evaluating the gains from research which raises the demand for a commodity, and applied to the pig and chicken industries in Australia. The major finding is that the gain to pork producers is larger, and the gain to consumers smaller, with a cross-commodity consideration than without. Bigger differences in results are observed with larger values of the cross-price elasticity between pork and chicken, and with a larger shift in demand for chicken. However, the aggregate benefits to the Australian pig industry are not significantly affected by price changes in the market for chicken. The implication of the analysis is that, by ignoring the cross-market feedback between commodities closely related in consumption, consumers (or taxpayers) of the commodity experiencing a rise in demand may bear a higher-than-optimal outlay on public research directed to increasing the demand for that commodity.     

浅议我国国土资源利益分配问题

当前,我国国土资源利益分配存在较大问题,各利益主体间利益关系失调,代际间矛盾突出,资源的产业间配置失控,地区间利益分配失衡,并造成了严重的资源浪费和环境破坏.本文就这些问题作了较深入地分析和研究,并提出了一些对策建议.     

UNCERTAINTY,IRREVERSIBILITY AND THE LOSS OF AGRICULTURAL LAND

In the past, evaluations of the transfer of agricultural land to other uses have generally failed to incorporate the issues of uncertainty and irreversibility into the analysis. This can lead to an overestimation of development values. The paper commences with a brief review of the approaches which have been adopted in the assessment of the loss of agricultural land. It is then demonstrated that uncertainty relating to the rate of change of agricultural values through time requires the adoption of a more conservative decision criterion in the evaluation of irreversible land use changes than would otherwise be applied. This is followed by a numerical example and sensitivity analysis. The paper concludes with a discussion of these results.     

THE AGRICULTURAL POTENTIALS OF CANADA'S RESOURCES AND TECHNOLOGY*

Canada's agricultural potential during the 1980's will be constrained by the availability and prices of productive agricultural land, water, energy, labour, and technology. Resources for further expansion of agricultural production are becoming increasingly scarce. Past expansions were made possible largely by the substitution of cheap fossil energy for expensive labour. Further expansion will necessitate new technology that is both energy saving and labour saving. A multifaceted program involving government, farmers, and other components of the food system is needed to achieve Canada's agricultural potentials. Agricultural expansions in the 1990's will depend first upon the success of the programs designed for the 1980's and second upon new scientific knowledge and technological adaptations. Without a massive and well coordinated effort to meet the needs of agriculture, Canada could become a food deficit nation before the end of this century. Le potentiel de ?Agriculture du Canada durant les 1980's va être contraint par la disponibilité et le pri.x de la terre, ?eau, ?energie, le travail et la technologie productive. Les ressources pour ?avancement de la production agricoie deviennent de plus en plus rare. Les expansions du passé ont été possible par la substitution de ?énergie fossile pour le travail dispendieux. Un autre anvancement va nécessiter une nouvelle technologie qui sauvera ?energie et le travail. Un programme qui comprend le gouvernement les fermiers et touts les autres constituents du système alimentaire est nécessaire si le Canada va achever son potential agricoie. Les expansions agricoles des 1990's vont depéndre premièrement du succès des programmes developpés pour les 1980's et deuxièment de nouvelles connaissances scientifique et de nouvelles adaptations technologigues. Sans un effort massif et sans un grand effort coordonné dans le domaine de ?agriculture, le Canada peut devenir un pays qui manque de la nourriture avant la fin du siècle.     

THE COMBINATION OF AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT AND INPUT PRICE INDICES

Measures of agricultural incomes, and of the industry's productivity, are often derived by combining measures of the aggregate values and volumes of the industry's outputs and inputs. Combinations of price indices are less common but some have been published by Eurostat and are described in this paper. They are of two basic forms, one indicating the net effect of changes in output prices and input prices on the industry's value added and the other indicating changes in the industry's terms of trade. The paper examines the role, construction and interpretation of these measures and offers some cautions about their interpretation in the context of CAP reform.     

INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION: THE SERVICES OF THE COMMONWEALTH BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS

The need for an information service in agricultural economics and rural sociology is apparent from the quantity of publications. The Bureau has evolved in response to progressive recognition of this need and from earlier attempts to meet it. An information service must provide for awareness of contents of current publications, and for retrieval of information from accumulated stores. The Bureau's journal, World Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology Abstracts (WAERSA), is designed to provide these services mainly by citation of classified literature together with abstracts and author, subject and geographical indexes. Classification and subject indexing raise conceptual problems which are being handled by empirical methods. A work flow line is designed to deal smoothy with current world publications. Review articles provide complementary information. Editors and authors can facilitate the work of the Bureau by attention to form and substance of primary publications. The present situation is hardly appropriate for use of computer-based services except possibly for inter-disciplinary linkages. It is hoped that the Bureau will eventually operate in conjunction with a comprehensive international library, around which research, teaching, editorial and information services will interact.     

THE EVOLUTION OF INFORMATION SOURCES AND THE USE OF INFORMATION-TECHNOLOGY IN AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS

The paper reviews developments in bibliograhical, statistical and market information sources over the last 25 years, particularly since the application of the computer to information processing and dissemination. It concentrates on bibliographical sources: the evolution of WAERSA from a quarterly abstract journal to a monthly one, now also accessible on-line, as well as discussing some of the other major bibliographical sources, notably the AGECON file on USDA's AGRICOLA (formerly the Bibliography of Agricultural Economics), FAO's AGRINDEX, a title-only service available as a monthly journal and on-line, the Bibliography on Agricultural Marketing from FAO's marketing division, and the information service provided by ESCA. Different methods of ‘packaging’ information are also mentioned, including regular profiles on particular topics (SDI), ‘state-of-the-arts’ reviews, and ‘start’ reports. The paucity of adequate source guides specially tailored to the needs of agricultural economists is discussed. Finally, the availability of farming and market information through videotex is described. A plea is made for greater co-operation between providers and users of information, better knowledge of and guides to sources, and for user education.     

BELIEFS AND VALUES IN AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS RESEARCH*

Attention is drawn to the values that are often kept hidden but condition what research agricultural economists do. It is pointed out that the economic theory, which guides most research, is not value free and that therefore the lack of debate about theory amongst Australian agricultural economists may be unhealthy. In a world with uncertainty, the research process is likened to learning, leading to a suggestion that Bayesian procedures provide a more satisfactory conceptual framework for the process of enquiry than does the conventional hypothesistesting approach. While difficulties in the practical applicability of Bayesian methods are understood, they do provide insights which permit some of the more inappropriate uses of hypothesis testing to be recognised. The view of research enquiry as learning also leads to an appreciation of the desirability of a more honest acceptance of the inherent subjectivity of the process. Finally, attention is drawn to the need for vigilance over professional standards in research.     

RESEARCH ORIENTATIONS AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS FOR AGRICULTURAL ECONOMISTS

Division of agricultural economics research into behavioural vs. policy alternatives is proposed to reduce ambiguities implied by a positive vs normative division. The thesis is argued with reference to growth of the farm firm. A specific model is proposed. Brief comparisons are provided with alternatives in behavioural and policy applications.