The UK and European Monetary Union: Why we should not stand aside

Ahead of next year's IGC David Currie considers the case for European monetary Union. He argues overall that EMU is desirable, though political arguments dominate the economic ones, which are finely balanced. he also argues that the UK should participate if other member states proceed to EMU, because of the dangers of marginalisation in Europe and of reduced attractiveness as a location for inward investment.     

How to rescue European monetary union

This paper considers recent comment and discussion on monetary union in Europe, and appraises recent steps towards Union. It is plain that politics is blinding both supporters and opponents of EMU to issues of major importance, and is also leading them often to'talk past each other'in debate. In the light of this, the article reappraises our earlier proposal for running the euro as a'parallel currency'with national currencies. We suggest that this could still be a sensible strategy for the'outs'and a fall-back if the politicians managed to wreck what could have been a worthwhile venture - a possibility that has been highlighted by events at the early May meeting.     

Economic Outlook 1991–1995: London Business School with Gower Publishing: Forecast Release: ECONOMIC POLICY AFTER THE STERLING DEBACLE

Now that sterling has withdrawn front the ERM and is once again in free float, the Government must decide on the next stage of policy. Should it seek to rejoin the ERM as quickly as possible or should it prolong the float? We argue that, whichever way the Government moves, devaluation has undone progress on inflation arid irreversibly damaged the credibility of the UK commitment to the ERM - the credibility of the ERM itself has also been damaged, perhaps irretrievably. In these circumstances, the Government should accept the verdict of the foreign exchanges arid switch the focus of its policy to ending the recession by setting interest rates in accordance with the needs of domestic recovery. The inflation costs of such a move should be small, at least initially, and the battle to reduce inflation can be rejoined in earnest arid the pound returned to the ERM when Germany has itself sorted out its unification problems. On the ERM we argue that it mist move either forwards to EMU or back to the crawling peg system of exchange rates that characterised the first half of the 1960s: it cannot remain in its current limbo.     

Some perspectives on currency relations between EMU and Central and East European EU accession countries

Central and East European prospective EU members are natural candidates for a subsequent admission to the European Monetary Union (EMU). This poses questions on (a) the optimal EMU accession time for Central European EU aspirants, and (b) the optimal exchange rate system in preparing for EMU accession. This paper discusses related issues and introduces four special issue papers on the subject.     

The impact of EMU on bond yield convergence: Evidence from a time-varying dynamic factor model

This paper examines the dynamics of long term sovereign bond yields for 21 OECD countries. Following Del Negro and Otrok (2008), we estimate a dynamic factor model, with time varying parameters and stochastic volatility, that decomposes the observed variation in bond yields for each country into a common factor, a regional factor (EMU/non-EMU), and an idiosyncratic country specific factor. We find that prior to the financial crisis of 2008, the common factor played a dominant role for most countries in our sample. In the post financial crisis period there is substantial heterogeneity in the relative importance of the EMU and the idiosyncratic factors across different countries. For instance, our results suggest that there was a decoupling between the EMU and bond markets of the periphery economies of Greece, Ireland and Portugal in the post-2008 period. We find that after the onset of sovereign debt crises in these economies, the idiosyncratic factor assumed an important role in driving the bond yield variation. Thereafter, the EMU’s share in bond yield changes in Ireland and Portugal increased considerably since 2012, whereas for Greece the idiosyncratic factor continued to play a significant role in driving bond yields. In contrast, the EMU factor consistently played a dominant role in explaining bond yield changes in Italy and Spain, the other two economies that also experienced severe debt crisis during this period. We argue such differences in the importance of the EMU factor between core and periphery economies can be attributed to the systemic importance of core members for the EMU. This is indicated by our finding that bond yields and credit default swap (CDS) are less sensitive to changes in debt-GDP ratios in countries where the EMU factor played a larger role in the post-2008 period.     

成绵乐城际铁路旅客列车开行方案探讨

如何制定一个经济合理的旅客列车开行方案,是铁路运输部门急需解决的首要问题。通过对成绵乐城际铁路的客流分析,在预测2012年客运量的基础上,对旅客列车开行方案进行探讨,主要包括动车组的运用、列车运行速度、列车开行对数、动车组停站方案和动车组在站技术作业时间等。     

EMU without Britain: reasons for scepticism

This paper applies the theory of optimum currency areas to the question of which countries could be expected to be successful members of EMU if the monetary union does not include Britain, and is therefore led by the Bundesbank. Correlation matrices are prepared for potential members of EMU for recent years to see which countries would have tended to agree on a monetary policy and which would frequently disagree. The statistics strongly suggest that the Bank of England would be a far more successful leader of EMU than would the Bundesbank. Only Austria and the Netherlands have had macroeconomic cycles which closely follow those of Germany. Far more countries have had cycles which parallel those of Britain. With EMU being led by the Bundesbank, because Britain has not joined, the prospects for monetary union are quite poor.     

Internal and external transmissions of monetary and fiscal policies in the EMU

With the introduction of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), the sovereignty of national monetary institutions has been replaced by a common monetary institution, the European Central Bank (ECB) and national currencies have been replaced by a common currency, the euro. EMU therefore implies the loss of national monetary policy autonomy and internal exchange rate flexibility inside the EMU area. However, external exchange rate adjustment, i.e. adjustment of the euro exchange rate, remains a feasible adjustment mechanism. This paper analyses how internal and external exchange rate flexibility affect macroeconomic adjustment in EMU and non-EMU countries. To do so, a model is constructed in which three countries interact: two countries that decide to form a monetary union and a third country that does not participate in the monetary union. Numerical simulations of a representative example are used to characterise the adjustment dynamics induced by monetary and fiscal policies before and after the start of the EMU.     

The Impact of Shocks on the UK Economy in and Out of EMU

Entry to EMU at an inappropriate exchange rate could trigger a full-blown business cycle in the UK. Once inside EMU, the UK's response to a number of different economic shocks would change — partly because of the fixed exchange rate, and partly because of the common monetary policy. In particular, when an asymmetric shock occurs — one that hits the UK harder than other Eurozone economies — the UK response is generally likely to be more pronounced inside EMU than outside. We find that that result still applies even in a reformed EMU — one in which the ECB and the labour market are reformed to bring them closer to the Anglo–Saxon model.     

Institutional Reform to Tame Union Power

How far has the success of trade unions in obtaining political and economic privilege been attenuated by the laws passed by the Conservative Government? Charles Rowley, Acting Dean of the Graduate School and Professor of Economics at George Mason University, Virginia, assesses the effectiveness of the legislation and considers how much further reform will have to be carried to return the control of unions to their members.     

The policy mix in the US and EMU: Evidence from a SVAR analysis

We use a SVAR approach to the effects of fiscal and monetary policies, as well as their interactions (policy mix) for the US and the Euro Area (EMU). Overall, our results show that these two cases are different from each other. First, while in the case of the US there is evidence of Keynesian monetary policy, the same is not true in the case of the EMU. Second, considering the effects of the global economic and financial crisis, there is evidence of non-Keynesian fiscal policy in the case of the EMU (expansionary fiscal consolidation), while it does not hold in the case of the US. Third, there is evidence supporting the traditional inverse relationship between monetary policy interest rates and inflation in the case of the US, whereas in the case of the EMU there is a price puzzle (frequent in SVAR studies). Fourth, the baseline model seems to be robust in the case of the US, when considering the effects of the economic and financial crisis 2007–2009, while the opposite holds in the case of the EMU. However, in both cases, the policies seem to act as complements. Another similarity appears when analysing the relationship between public spending and taxation, where there is evidence supporting a fiscal retrenchment.     

Labor market institutions and inflation volatility in the euro area

Despite having had the same currency for many years, EMU countries still have quite different inflation dynamics. In this paper we explore one possible reason: country specific labor market institutions, giving rise to different inflation volatilities. When unemployment insurance schemes differ, as they do in EMU, reservation wages react differently in each country to area-wide shocks. This implies that real marginal costs and inflation also react differently. We report evidence for EMU countries supporting the existence of a cross-country link over the cycle between labor market structures on the one side and real wages and inflation on the other. We then build a DSGE model that replicates the data evidence. The inflation volatility differentials produced by asymmetric labor markets generate welfare losses at the currency area level of approximately 0.3% of steady state consumption.     

基于动态事件调度仿真的高速铁路动车组运用计划计算机协同编制方法的研究

依据动车组运用的牵引动力与载客装置不可分离的原则,动车组挂运接续和列车运行线的时点是一致的,因此将这些时点作为变量,考虑动车组整备维修、动车组站段折返接续作业时间、列车运行线铺画约束、列车挂运匹配等条件,建立以动车组运用效率和列车运行计划均衡性为指标的基本模型,采用动态事件表调度方法实现可行方案编制,研究站间固定区段运用模式下,单基地多车种的动车组运用计划与成对列车运行计划协同编制问题。最后以京津客运专线实际条件模拟编制动车运用计划,以验证模型与算法的可行性。     

A small monetary system for the euro area based on German data

Previous euro area money demand studies have used aggregated national time series data from the countries participating in the European Monetary Union (EMU). However, aggregation may be problematic because macroeconomic convergence processes have taken place in the countries of interest. Therefore, in this study, quarterly German data until 1998 are combined with data from the euro area from 1999 until 2002 and these series are used for fitting a small vector error correction model for the monetary sector of the EMU. A stable long‐run money demand relation is found for the full sample period. Moreover, impulse responses do not change much when the sample period is extended by the EMU period provided the break in the extended data series is captured by a simple dummy variable. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Can Government Intervention in Childcare be Justified?

Childcare is not like other goods and services. Its inherent nature creates unusual challenges for efficient delivery by the market, while its usage can have social as well as private consequences. Government involvement in childcare may therefore be justified to improve the efficiency of delivery or achieve social objectives, but its effectiveness will depend on whether policy measures can better address the challenges of childcare provision than the market. This article reviews the justification for the recent rapid development of childcare policy in the UK and considers the potential benefits and drawbacks of this growing government intervention.     

CRH3C型高速动车组DC110V接地故障的分析及排除

文章介绍了DC110 V接地故障对动车组的影响,阐述了DC110 V供电系统和它的负载分配情况,总结了DC110V接地的检测方法,重点论述如何利用这些检测方法及时发现处理CRH3C型高速动车组DC110 V接地故障,对于提高铁路运输质量安全具有重大意义。     

CRH2型动车组常用制动控制电路分析

制动系统是动车组的一个重要组成部分,它的正常工作是安全行车的必备条件。本文以2型动车组的常用制动为研究对象,对实施常用制动三种情况下的控制电路进行了详细的分析,阐述了制动电路中各控制继电器的得电情况,制动指令的产生和传输过程。     

无拍频控制技术在新一代CRH380CL型高速动车组上的应用

高速动车组技术的迅猛发展对牵引变流器的性能提出了更高的要求。在动车组传动系统中,单相脉冲整流器工作时,会在中间直流环节产生2倍于电网频率的脉动分量,该脉动分量传递到逆变器输出侧会在电机上产生拍频现象,引起转矩脉动和电机过热。     

From European Union to European Monetary Union: the new member states and accession countries of Central and Eastern Europe in 2004

The 10 new member states and candidate countries from Central and Eastern Europe have made the institutional reforms embodied in the acquis communautaire, including developing institutions of social dialogue which are supposed to ease the path to entry into the European Monetary Union (EMU). This review assesses the challenges facing the Central and Eastern European countries in achieving the targets set for EMU entry and questions whether the existing institutions of social dialogue will be able to bear the strain of achieving those targets.     

Fiscal constraints and financial regulation in economic and monetary union

It is already well understood that economic and monetary union (EMU) will imply the centralisation of much of economic policy, including the setting of the euro interest rate and restrictions on the fiscal freedom of participating countries. In this article it is argued that fiscal harmonisation will go further than an obligation to adhere to the deficit limit of the'convergence criteria': It is also deduced that central control over the regulation of financial institutions will be necessary for EMU to function.