Economic theory and econometric dynamics in modelling wages and prices in the United Kingdom

We show that a “competing claims” model of imperfect competition can explain the movements of wages and prices in the United Kingdom, using quarterly data covering 1976–93. We argue that careful attention both to economic theory and to the interaction between dynamics and identification is crucial in the building of the model and to dynamic econometric models in general. We use a small numerical example with simulated cointegrated data to illustrate the potential pitfalls. First version received: January 1998/final version received: November 1998     

Stabilisation, Policy Targets and Unemployment in Imperfectly Competitive Economies

This paper argues that the rate of equilibrium unemployment depends on the objectives of the Central Bank. In a model where the Central Bank uses monetary policy to stabilise the economy, we show that unemployment and inflation will be lower with an inflation target than with targets for output, money or nominal GDP. The intuition for this is that the elasticities of demand in both the product and the labour markets are greater when there is an inflation target; we show that this leads to a lower mark-up of price over marginal cost and makes wages more sensitive to unemployment.     

Monetary policy shocks and productivity measures in the G-7 countries

An implication of two-country international real business cycle models is that total factor productivity should be an exogenous stochastic process. Economic theories which feature labor hoarding, variable capacity utilization, and increasing returns predict that measured productivity shifts are not exogenous; instead, expansionary aggregate demand shocks should lead to an increase in measured productivity. For each of the G-7 countries, this paper measures quarterly aggregate total factor productivity for the domestic country and its rest-of-world (G-6) counterpart. In each case the domestic productivity measures are not strictly exogenous: expansionary U.S. monetary policy shocks, as well as other G-6 monetary policy shocks, lead to productivity expansions. The evidence indicates that international business cycle models are misspecified unless they feature endogenous productivity mechanisms.Received: June 2001, Accepted: December 2001, JEL Classification: E5, F4Correspondence to: Charles L. EvansFor their helpful comments, we thank Mario Crucini, Patricia Reynolds, and Steve Strongin. The views expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago or the Federal Reserve System.     

应对资产价格波动的货币政策选择与均衡框架构建

资本市场的快速发展,使资产价格波动与货币政策效果之间的关联性不断加大.货币政策是否应当和应该如何对资产价格波动作出反应,多年来吸引了众多学者和货币政策制定者的高度关注.综合已有的理论实践和我国货币政策操作的现实,虽然目前资产价格还不具备作为我国货币政策独立调控目标的条件,但是有必要将其作为货币调控的辅助监测指标纳入中央银行货币政策操作的视野.央行应尽快建立与资产价格监测相关的指标体系,形成考虑资产价格波动因素的货币政策传导机制,构建均衡实体经济与虚拟经济的货币政策操作框架.     

基于无缺陷退货下的易逝品供应链协调问题研究

本文通过将销售努力对需求和退货率的影响引入易逝品供应链,建立了需求不确定环境下顾客退货及制造商回收模型,指出分散式供应链下制造商简单地回收顾客的退货产品并不能实现供应链协调,而基于回馈与惩罚策略下制造商回收顾客的退货产品及销售季节结束后零售商的剩余产品能够实现供应链的协调。     

房价波动、调控政策立场估计及其影响效应研究--基于1998-2014年数据的实证分析

调控政策对房价的反应、立场和影响效应是政府政策设计的重要依据,2007年底金融危机爆发后,调控政策和房价波动都发生了显著变化。文章以2008年为界,构建了三个房价和政策变量的月度时间序列样本：1998-2007年、2008-2014年和1998-2014年,在此基础上,对2008年前后调控政策的反应、立场和影响效应进行了实证分析。结果表明：(1)实际贷款利率和货币供应量在2008年前后对目标变量的反应是交错变化的,货币供应量对房价的反应与假定相反,货币政策并未对房价做出充分反应,而财政和土地政策表现出了较好的反应结果。(2)货币供应量对房价波动的影响最大,是房价持续上涨的重要原因,2008年以来,固定资产投资的影响非常显著,脉冲响应分析发现利率只能在短期内对房价产生负向影响,除土地政策外,货币和财政政策皆会在长期内对房价产生稳定影响。文章的研究为推进房价政策调控和房地产市场健康稳定发展提供了可靠的经验支持。     

Multiple Wage Bargaining Systems in the Single European Currency Area

Little attention in the EMU literature has been paid to the interaction between centralbank monetary rules and systems of collective wage bargaining. Analytically andempirically, coordinated wage bargaining systems respond with real wage restraintto non-accommodating monetary policy. Since wage determination is dominated bycollective bargaining in all the EMU member states and wage coordination within themember states has grown since 1980, this is a topic of potential importance. In particular, the replacement of the Bundesbank, directly targeting German inflation, by an ECB targeting European inflation has removed a major institutional support of wage restraint in Germany. The consequences of this for EMU are worked out under two scenarios, that inflation expectations will be generated by ECB monetary policy and that they will reflect German inflation outcomes. Possible institutional developments are discussed including government-union bargains. The Bundesbank has also played a major role in maintaining fiscal rectitude by targeting excess fiscal deficits in Germany: again its replacement by the ECB – targeting (if at all) European rather than German fiscal policy – loosens fiscal constraints. For underlying structural reasons therefore, it is possible that Germany and other EMU countries will move to a period of fiscal activism with wage restraint and low inflation purchased through social contract negotiations.     

外部供需冲击视角下的东亚货币合作可行性研究

区域货币合作在维护区域金融稳定、促进区域经济发展方面具有不可替代的作用。欧洲主权债务危机爆发后,人们对东亚能否继续进行货币合作产生了疑问,有必要结合欧债危机产生的新情况、新问题,从新的视角探讨东亚货币合作的可行性。文章从供给与需求两方面的经济结构冲击对称性视角,对东亚10个经济体之间的冲击相关系数、冲击规模与调整速度进行了实证分析,证实了东亚区域不同经济体之间存在着不同的对称性,具有双边和次区域货币合作的经济基础。同时文章提出东亚区域未来货币合作的形式、实现路径和风险防范措施。     

How to avoid the consequences of anticipated monetary policies

Summary. This paper analyzes how monetary policy in an overlapping generations model can be designed to avoid inflationary consequences of anticipated changes of monetary policies. Avoiding these inflationary consequences will require a once and for all increase (decrease) in monetary growth immediately before the policy switch takes place if the relative risk aversion is greater (less) than unity. If the relative risk aversion is greater than unity, the avoidance of inflationary consequences is also time-consistent. Moreover, a general monetary feedback rule ensures that the economy picks the steady state with the lowest inflation rate. Our results suggest that the difference between unanticipated and anticipated policy switches may not be as important as generally assumed, because the consequences of the latter can be neutralized. Received: September 19, 1995; revised version: July 27, 1998     

粮食涨价引发的思考

2003年10月份以来,中国粮食及大宗农产品价格出现6年来的首次明显上扬。涨价反映出中国粮食产量满足不了国内需求。本文对其中的主要原因进行了分析,结合中国今后人口增多对粮食需求量增大、粮食播种面积减少、农户种粮比较效益低种田积极性不高、库存粮食减少、进口粮食补充又有限的背景,从目前和长远角度分析了中国粮食安全面临的严峻形势,并提出了确保粮食安全的对策建议。     

Investing in innovation to enable global competitiveness: The case of Portugal

The concept of leveraged innovation to create wealth within regions, countries and economies is not a new concept. Competitiveness of regions in the increasingly global economy now requires not only that innovation be present within a regional economy, but also that mechanisms exist to effectively transfer those developed innovations from the research laboratory to the marketplace. It is surmised that increased innovation, and the transfer of this innovation, can lead to increased prosperity of regions (Porter). As such, many developing countries around the world are looking at investments in innovation as a means to spur regional economic development and wealth creation while preserving national competitiveness. That said, innovation investment is by no means an exact science. Historically, typical “innovation investments” have been focused on “tangible” capital infrastructure projects such as the establishment of incubators and science parks. While many regions point to the existence of such tangible innovation assets as proof of investment in innovation, it has been discovered that in some cases, an investment in the capacity building of human networks to engage in technology transfer and commercialization related activities can act as a stronger facilitator for the transformation of economies and produce a larger return on investment in innovation for the country. Given not only Portugal's, but other regions throughout the EU-Zone, recent financial and economic woes, it bears examination on whether investing in the innovation and technology transfer knowledge and “know how” of key human networks within a struggling economy is a worthwhile investment for financially struggling countries during the current times of fiscal crisis.     

A panel data approach to the demand for money and the effects of financial reforms in the Asian countries

Alternative panel data estimation methods are used to estimate the cointegrating equations for the demand for money (M1) for a panel of 14 Asian countries from 1970 to 2005. The effects of financial reforms are analyzed with estimates for two sets of sub-samples and two break dates. Our results show that money demand function has been stable and financial reforms are yet to have any significant effects. Since there is no evidence for instability in the demand for money, the central banks of these countries should use money supply, instead of the rate of interest, as the monetary policy instrument.     

国际金融危机背景下我国促进就业增长政策效应影响因素的实证分析

在2008年的次贷危机背景下,我国采取了一系列政策促进就业与经济增长,并取得了显著的效果。为了探寻政策实施效应影响因素及相互关系,在问卷调查的基础上,运用主成分分析提取了8个主要因素,并把8个因素分为政策因素与经济因素两个方面,运用典型相关分析方法分析二者之间的关系,提出了提高政府决策效率等相应政策建议。