碳排放配额政策的环境效应和贸易效应研究

基于不完全市场竞争理论,构建了两个对称国家碳排放配额政策选择与企业碳减排选择的两阶段博弈模型,运用逆向求解法求得了均衡解,并通过进一步分析碳排放许可证政策、碳排放配额许可交易政策和许可交易碳排放权合作政策的福利效应,得出了两国政府碳排放配额政策选择的激励相容条件和参与约束条件,确定了全局稳定均衡最优解及其条件;此外,还分析了两国政府碳排放许可证政策、碳排放配额许可交易政策和许可交易碳排放权合作政策的环境效应和贸易效应。结果表明：从福利效应来看,许可交易碳排放权合作政策是全局稳定最优解,可以资源的有效配置,实现Pareto改进;从环境效应来看,许可交易碳排放权合作政策也是严格占优的,有助于减少各国和全球净污染排放量;从贸易效应来看,碳排放配额许可交易政策好于许可交易碳排放权合作政策。因此,北-北型对称国家会优先选择许可交易碳排放权合作政策,南一南型对称国家在一定时期内仍然会优先选择碳排放配额许可交易政策,南-南或北-北型对称国家之间容易实现碳排放政策合作,实现全球环境合作还有待时日。     

Macroeconomic Policy Design in the European Monetary Union: A Numerical Game Approach

Optimal economic reactions of European policy-makers on exogenous shocks are determined by simulating a global macroeconomic model under different institutional arrangements. In particular, it is investigated whether discretionary or rule-based policies and whether non-cooperative or cooperative policies for Europe result in a better performance as measured by intertemporal objective functions. The results show that the answers to these questions depend strongly on the nature of the shock to which European economies are exposed. For a negative supply shock, rule-based policies dominate, whereas for a negative demand shock, cooperative fiscal policy-making within the European Monetary Union gives the best results.     

Tariff Wars and Trade Deals with Costly Government

The authors study a simple model of tariff wars and trade deals in which government revenue collection and disbursement uses resources. The introduction of costly governments leads to lower non‐cooperative tariffs, the possibility that a less costly government may win a tariff war, and fully cooperative trade deals where countries lower tariffs but do not eliminate them, even with lump‐sum taxes and transfers.     

政策科学视角下的新型农村合作医疗：评析与建议

采取政策科学分析视角考察当前中国推行的新型农村合作医疗制度。其在制定中遵循循序渐进的决策原则，在执行中注意根据政策资源的供给状况突出政策实施的层次性和地区差异，并适时运用动员模式提高政策执行效率。新型农村合作医疗政策自实施以来已初见成效，但在政策运行中也存在若干问题。表现为政策对象的政策认知度低。政策评估与监控机制缺乏，政策执行中出现“逆向选择”现象，并由于社会资本发育不良形成政策环境阻滞因素。这就要求深化政策试点，扩大农民参与，进一步创新政策执行方式。建立健全政策监控机制，构建相互配套的立体化政策网络。     

Monetary and Fiscal Policy-Makers in the European Economic and Monetary Union: Allies or Adversaries?

Optimal monetary and fiscal policies within the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) are determined by simulating a global model under alternative assumptions about the objective function of the European Central Bank (ECB) and about cooperation vs. non-cooperation between monetary and fiscal policy-makers and among the latter. The results show the high effectiveness of fixed rules in the presence of supply-side shocks and the usefulness of cooperative discretionary measures against demand-side shocks. More generally, cooperation among fiscal policy-makers in the EMU is nearly always superior to non-cooperative equilibrium solutions, yielding a strong case for the coordination of fiscal policies.     

REACHING THE RURAL POOR THROUGH AGRICULTURAL COOPERATIVES IN MONGOLIA

This paper focuses on the cooperative sector in central Mongolia. Its aim is to provide new insights into the role and importance of cooperatives among poor rural populations. We analyse cooperatives’ inclusiveness of smaller herders and farmers and cooperatives’ governance structures. The research is based on data collected in selected provinces of the central Töv region. The data were collected for three distinctive target groups – cooperative board members, cooperative members and non‐members. We found that the cooperative sector in Mongolia is strongly affected by the governmental policy regarding wool subsidies, which provides subsidies only to cooperative members and has consequently caused rapid growth in the number of new, free‐riding cooperative members and led to very low levels of members’ self‐identification with their cooperatives. This policy also affects the inner organizational structures of cooperatives. Further, we found indications that poorer farmers tend not to be members of cooperatives and that the overall benefits for non‐members and the general community arising from local cooperatives are rather low.     

Identifying non-cooperative behavior among spouses: Child outcomes in migrant-sending households

I propose a model of household decision-making under asymmetric information and show that resulting allocations may not be fully cooperative. The model yields a simple test for cooperative decision-making, which I apply to data from China. I find that, when the father migrates without his family, children spend more time in household production, while mothers spend less time in both household production and income-generating activities. This is not consistent with standard cooperative models of the household: simply reallocating time to compensate for the father's absence would cause an increase in household labor for both children and mothers and, if migration occurs in response to a negative shock, we should observe an increase in mothers' time in income-generating activities rather than a reduction. The results also do not appear to be driven by an increase in mothers' bargaining power, as children's human capital is not affected by migration, controlling for income.     

中国农村计划生育保险保障制度现状评价与政策建议

农村计划生育保险保障制度在我国部分地区试点并得到发展,但有效的保险保障机制还未形成,一些地区的生育保险筹资模式具有不可持续性,相应配套制度滞后。应从战略地位上高度重视农村计划生育保险保障制度发展,建立有效的计划生育利益导向社会政策体系,构建养老保障制度可持续发展的长效机制,充分发挥农村新型合作医疗和商业保险的保险保障功能,注重计划生育保险保障与相关制度的配套发展。     

中国汽车企业技术追赶模式差异化的实证分析

鉴于主流技术追赶理论不能完全解释中国汽车企业的技术追赶实践,总结和分析了中国汽车企业的技术追赶模式及其绩效差异。研究结果显示:中国汽车企业在技术追赶中采取的是混合模式,具体模式包括合资主导模式、引进主导模式、引进辅助模式、自主开发模式和合作开发模式;技术追赶模式影响技术追赶绩效,按绩效从高到低对技术追赶模式进行排序,依次为自主开发模式、引进辅助模式、合作开发模式、引进主导模式和合资主导模式;采用同一技术追赶模式的企业不必然获得相似的技术追赶绩效;新兴汽车企业的技术追赶绩效明显优于传统汽车企业。     

SUBSIDIES AS OPTIMAL FISCAL STIMULI

Theoretical macroeconomic models typically take fiscal policy to mean tax‐and‐spend by a ‘benevolent government’ that exploits potential aggregate demand externalities inherent in the imperfectly competitive nature of goods markets. Whilst shown to raise aggregate output and employment, these policies crowd‐out private consumption and typically reduce welfare. On account of their widespread use to stimulate economic activity, we consider the use of ‘tax‐and‐subsidize’ instead of ‘tax‐and‐spend’ policies. Within a static general equilibrium macro‐model with imperfectly competitive goods markets, we examine the effects of wage and output subsidies and show that, for a small open economy, positive tax and subsidy rates exist which maximize welfare, rendering no intervention suboptimal. We also show that, within a two‐country setting, a Nash non‐cooperative symmetric equilibrium with positive tax and subsidy rates exists, and that cooperation between governments in setting these rates is more expansionary and leads to an improvement upon the non‐cooperative solution.     

THE TRANSMISSION OF THE MONETARY POLICY IN THE EURO AREA: THE ROLE OF THE BANKS’ BUSINESS MODEL

This paper sheds some new light on the incidence of the banks’ business model as a component of the bank lending channel in the euro area. Differently from existing literature, the analysis is led on the basis of the two main macroeconomic regions that today characterize the euro area: its north‐east (German‐centric) and south‐west halves. The observation period is 2008–2013, mainly featured by the financial and economic crisis. The empirical findings evidence that in the north‐east half of the euro area the cooperative banks leveraged the effects of the reduction in the interest rates in terms of new lending. In this respect, they differentiated from commercial and savings banks, which showed a more neutral impact on the transmission of the monetary policy decisions. These results highlight the distinctive role of the cooperative banks in terms of credit provision in Germany and in the whole north‐east half of the euro area. Nevertheless, this cooperative banking effect did not emerge for the south‐west half of the continent, particularly hit by the crisis. This may suggest that the bank's business model tend to be neutral to the transmission of the monetary policy in economies characterized by prolonged recessions.     

Domestic environmental policy and international cooperation for global commons

The paper analyzes the strategic behavior of several countries engaged in capital accumulation, pollution mitigation, and environmental adaptation in the context of an environmental common good. Both cooperative and non-cooperative strategies are discussed. The non-cooperative strategy is a dynamic game in which each country makes its own environmental decision following the open-loop Nash equilibrium. The cooperative social planner problem assumes an international environmental agreement in force. The non-cooperative and cooperative solutions are compared in the symmetric case of two countries and extended to several identical countries. It is shown that the non-cooperative strategy in multi-country world leads to over-production, over-consumption, over-pollution, and over-adaptation.     

我国科技型小微企业合作研发现状实证研究

科技型小微企业以新技术为成长核心，由于自身资源不足，合作研发是其技术创新的重要选择。通过对全国范围内 351个科技型小微企业有效样本的问卷调查，并结合深度访谈，分析我国科技型小微企业合作研发现状，探索其面临的障碍和成因，提出开辟多元化资金来源渠道、提升参与合作研发内生能力、搭建开放式科技中介服务生态平台、健全知识产权长效保护机制以及畅通有效的沟通协调渠道等对策建议。     

京津冀都市圈管治问题探讨

京津冀三省市协同发展的程度尚未达理想水平，其重要原因是其在管治理念、管治模式、管治体系和职能等方面尚未形成一个合理的管治模式和协调机制。要实现京津冀都市圈协调发展，须在管治模式和协调发展机制方面进行创新，即确立都市圈管治新理念，建立京津冀都市圈双层多核管治模式，强化“管理模式”与“社团模式”；充分发挥京津冀都市圈规划的作用，建立“非实体性”行政层面协调机制，建立省市政府层面的协调管理机制，建立和完善公民参与机制，建立经济、社会、资源环境相统一的协调发展机制。     

区域产业生态系统组织成员间的竞合协同进化研究

从生态学视角来看,在同一区域内相互关联的组织成员构成了区域产业生态系统,对其研究主要是分析该系统内产业组织的演化,即关联成员之间的竞争与合作协同进化。构建了成员竞合协同进化模型,并以两个成员竞合协同进化为例,运用微分方程定性知识以及数值仿真对该模型的稳定性进行分析,所得到的一些结果为模拟以及预测区域产业生态系统的组织结构演化提供了理论依据,有利于进一步揭示在区域产业生态系统中组织成员之间竞争与合作协同进化发展的内在机理。     

An analysis of bargaining power for milk cooperatives and milk processors in Florida

The Florida dairy market has a few fluid milk processors and many dairy farmers. The dairy farmers are represented in negotiation with the processors by a cooperative. This research builds a theoretical model of bargaining between the processors and a cooperative. The model is applied to the Florida dairy market to examine price negotiations between Florida milk processors and a dairy cooperative. An expectation maximization (EM) algorithm along with maximum likelihood estimation is used to estimate the econometric disequilibrium model with time series data for the period of October 1998 to May 2009. The results show that the class I price set by the Federal Milk Marketing Order is the major factor influencing the cooperative’s supply reservation price. Negotiated quantity and production seasonality affect the processors’ demand reservation price. The processors appear to be more patient and have higher average bargaining power (0.8804) than the cooperative (0.1196). The highest (lowest) bargaining power for the cooperative (processors) occurred in 2008 and the lowest (highest) bargaining power for the cooperative (processors) occurred in 2001.     

基于物元理论的军工科研项目虚拟组织及合作伙伴选择方法

军工科研项目的运作需要解决两个问题:建立何种组织结构?组织结构的成员如何选择?文章首先指出了军工科研项目运作的阶段任务,进一步以物元理论为基础,构建了军工科研项目虚拟组织——物元蛛网协模型(MECCM)和合作伙伴选择方法——优度评价方法。最后,以某军工研究所承担的军方项目×××为案例,对所提出的方法进行了实际应用。     

Coordinated Punishment and the Evolution of Cooperation

In this paper, we analyze a team trust game with coordinated punishment of the allocator by investors and where there is also a final stage of peer punishment. We study the effect of punishment on the reward and the investment decisions, when the effectiveness and cost of coordinated punishment depend on the number of investors adhering to this activity. The interaction takes place in an overlapping‐generations model with heterogeneous preferences and incomplete information. The only long‐run outcomes of the dynamics are either a fully cooperative culture (FCC) with high levels of trust and cooperation and fair returns or a non‐cooperative culture with no cooperation at all. The basin of attraction of the FCC is larger; the higher the institutional capacity of coordinated punishment, the higher the level of peer pressure and the smaller the individual cost of coordinated punishment.     

财政资金支持农民专业合作社政策研究

我国财政支持农民专业合作社政策存在忽视经济效益、公平效应和监管疏漏等问题.政府应加大财政配套的金融支持;财政资金支持要坚持多渠道、多层次投入,突出重点环节;同时,要明晰合作社内部产权,建立必要的外部和内部监督约束机制.     

中国改革开放以来财政政策平滑经济波动的能力——基于传统IS-LM模型的实证分析

文章通过借助传统IS-LM模型和比较静态分析方法对中国改革开放以来财政政策平滑经济波动的能力进行了实证分析,得出:(1)财政政策对经济波动的整体平滑能力较低,平均只有6.35%,财政政策的平滑能力在经济波动的不同状态之间存在明显差异;(2)财政政策工具之间的平滑能力存在较大差异,其中财政购买性支出能平滑掉经济初始冲击的11.48%,而财政转移性支出和收入政策整体上反而使经济波动上升近3%;(3)内生性检验表明,中国只有相机性支出政策与经济波动之间存在显著的双向因果关系,不仅如此,相机性支出政策的内外时滞都较短。文章结论的政策含义是,提高中国财政政策稳定效果的关键在于提高政策工具的有效性与相互之间的协同效应,不仅如此,对经济高涨时期政府财政行为进行有效约束也至关重要。