Application of technology roadmaps to governmental innovation policy for promoting technology convergence

The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan has actively involved itself in technology roadmapping in recent years in order to build a broad discussion basis for researchers and business-oriented people in academia, industry and government. This unique attempt is not fully tested in the context whether the “public sector's roadmaps” are viable for promoting innovation and for building tight collaborative relationships between different sectors. However, the authors have been widening the application of roadmapping activities from classical R&D management to new ways of promoting technology convergence, in which the Japanese R&D community is said to be not so accustomed. This paper depicts the governmental agency's objectives, activity details and ways of applications of technology roadmaps and roadmapping. The authors' intention is not only to introduce this kind of governmental activity to the MOT world, but rather to ignite discussions on the usefulness and effectiveness of technology roadmaps and roadmapping in a wide range of knowledge sharing.     

Dealing with the dynamics of technology roadmapping implementation: A case study

Nowadays, companies are facing many challenges. The product life cycle is getting shorter while the complexity and the demand for product customization are increasing. Technology Roadmapping (TRM) has been widely used as a strategic management tool to help organizations in effectively identifying potential products or services for the future, determining proper technology alternatives, and mapping them with resource allocation plans. With the completion of TRM implementation, any organization can be assured that its required technologies and infrastructures will be ready when needed. Implementing TRM as a part of the ongoing strategic/business planning process is challenging because it may affect the organizational work process, structure, and culture. Therefore, an organization needs to understand how the changing roles and responsibilities of key players involved in the TRM process match with the dynamics of TRM implementation in each stage. This paper illustrates the dynamics of TRM implementation and presents a case study to demonstrate how one of the leading building product manufacturers in the ASEAN region went through the process.     

Integrating technology roadmapping and portfolio management at the front-end of new product development

Many authors point out that the front-end of new product development (NPD) is a critical success factor in the NPD process and that numerous companies face difficulties in carrying it out appropriately. Therefore, it is important to develop new theories and proposals that support the effective implementation of this earliest phase of NPD. This paper presents a new method to support the development of front-end activities based on integrating technology roadmapping (TRM) and project portfolio management (PPM). This new method, called the ITP Method, was implemented at a small Brazilian high-tech company in the nanotechnology industry to explore the integration proposal. The case study demonstrated that the ITP Method provides a systematic procedure for the fuzzy front-end and integrates innovation perspectives into a single roadmap, which allows for a better alignment of business efforts and communication of product innovation goals. Furthermore, the results indicated that the method may also improve quality, functional integration and strategy alignment.     

A visual scanning of potential disruptive signals for technology roadmapping: investigating keyword cluster,intensity, and relationship in futuristic data

Technology roadmapping of today’s era is necessarily based on comprehensive scanning of various signals with the disruptive potential in future paths of market, product, and technology. Previous attempts of data-driven technology roadmaps have mainly focused on data from such sources as patents and literatures. However, as these sources catalogue posteriori trends of evolution, roadmaps based on these data cannot be counted on to predict disruptions. In this regard, futuristic data in technology foresight websites may provide a better source. The objective of this research, in response, is to develop a support system for technology roadmapping that uses futuristic data. To this end, we suggest keyword-based visual scanning approach involving three keyword maps, used in succession: keyword cluster map, keyword intensity map, and keyword relationship map. Particularly, keyword intensity map is designed using weak signal theory which can help identify the visibility, diffusion, and interpretation of signals.     

Implementing technology roadmap process in the energy services sector: A case study of a government agency

Energy sector has become increasingly sensitive to emerging new technologies as our society is seeking alternative energy sources. Many utility companies and government agencies have started to implement technology planning processes for roadmapping their future technology portfolios. This paper focuses on technology planning in the government energy services sector. Through a case study research method, the paper documents how technology planning and specifically technology roadmaps were implemented at a federal agency tasked with managing power transmission in the Northwest United States. Three application areas are covered: transmission, renewables and energy efficiency. The paper provides details on the Energy Efficiency Roadmaps. Through the review of the case a technology planning methodology based on technology roadmaps is detailed. Key conclusions were reached on how to manage such process implementation in similar organizations. Some of these conclusions can be generalized to those that are implementing technology planning processes for the first time. We concluded that adoption of such methods would require a longer time than anticipated. Organizational changes to adopt the process will likely reduce the time it takes to deliver the required roadmaps. We also found that a typical sequence of events would be Technology Gap Analysis and Identification of Technology Candidates, Evaluation and Prioritization of Technologies, Roadmapping of Technologies and Allocation of Resources to the R&D Programs or to the direct acquisition of the technologies.     

Technology futures analysis: Toward integration of the field and new methods

Many forms of analyzing future technology and its consequences coexist, for example, technology intelligence, forecasting, roadmapping, assessment, and foresight. All of these techniques fit into a field we call technology futures analysis (TFA). These methods have matured rather separately, with little interchange and sharing of information on methods and processes. There is a range of experience in the use of all of these, but changes in the technologies in which these methods are used—from industrial to information and molecular—make it necessary to reconsider the TFA methods. New methods need to be explored to take advantage of information resources and new approaches to complex systems. Examination of the processes sheds light on ways to improve the usefulness of TFA to a variety of potential users, from corporate managers to national policy makers. Sharing perspectives among the several TFA forms and introducing new approaches from other fields should advance TFA methods and processes to better inform technology management as well as science and research policy.     

A technology replacement model with variable market potential — An empirical study of CRT and LCD TV

The rapidly changing economic environment and increasingly fierce competition indicate that companies must innovate in both their products and marketing strategies if they are to continue to flourish. Specifically, the ability to accurately predict the demand for products is crucial when firms decide to allocate their resources, especially in the fast moving high technology industries, where there is very high investment in R&D and production facilities. This study establishes a forecast model for technology replacement based on the diffusion model with population growth used for the variable market potential. The proposed model is then applied to investigate the CRT and LCD TV market.The results suggest that the new model is more accurate than the constant market potential model in fitting and forecasting performance. Consumers who purchase a TV for the first time are likely more attracted to LCD TV rather than CRT TV. As for those individuals who already own a CRT TV, the attraction is not strong enough to encourage them to replace their current CRT TV with a new LCD TV. Moreover, it is noted that the falling price of LCD TV is an essential factor in encouraging purchases.     

Extracting the commercialization gap between science and technology — Case study of a solar cell

In this paper, we compared structures of the citation network of scientific publications with those of patents, and discussed the differences between them. A case study was performed in a solar cell to develop a method of detecting gaps between science and technology. Scientific research has tended to be more basic, especially in terms of cell design, whereas patents have focused on more applied technology used in solar cell modules. Of the major citation clusters of scientific publications, only two, namely silicon and compound solar cells, corresponded semantically with patent clusters. Conversely, there were no patent clusters corresponding to the other two scientific research fronts, namely dye-sensitized and polymer solar cells. These research areas could be regarded as opportunities for industrial commercialization because scientific activities exist but not technological applications. Our results could offer an intellectual basis for discovering potential opportunities for industrial commercialization.     

Forecasting sales and product evolution: The case of the hybrid/electric car

We present a model that forecasts sales and product evolution, based on data on market and industry, which can be collected before the product is introduced. Product evolution can be incremental but can also take place by releasing new generations. In our model adoption of a new product is motivated by attribute improvements (enabled by technology evolution), and firms' attribute improvements strategies are motivated by market growth and directed by market preferences. The interdependency between attributes' improvements and cumulative adoption level makes the problem inherently dynamic. The dependency of attribute levels on adoption levels is assessed using industry and technology analysis. Market preferences and purchase intention response to attribute levels changes are assessed based on a conjoint study. The option of collecting and interpreting data about both demand and supply aspects, before the new product is introduced, enables us to estimate sales and technology progress endogenously rather than to require them as inputs. We demonstrate the method on the hybrid car market.     

The suitability of technology forecasting/foresight methods for decision systems and strategy: A Japanese view

This paper evaluates technology forecasting and foresight (TF/F) methods in relation to users' decision systems for science and technology (S&T) strategies. As TF/F is an aid to decisions for attaining S&T goals, we examine the serviceability or suitability and acceptability of the methods and outcomes of TF/F for decision systems and S&T strategies. The focus is on extrapolation and Delphi methods because they are so widely used in technology forecasting (TFC). Based on the complaint analysis of TFC that revealed inaccuracy as the most serious obstacle to its acceptance, this paper especially analyses the meaning of accuracy. Learning from the experiences of TFC, the suitability of technology foresight (TFS) to cognitive structures in users' decisions is discussed. Finally, some lessons from TFC are presented for TFS.     

Globalization of technology: Network analysis of global patents and trademarks

This study explored how the structure of globalization of technology via intellectual property networks has changed longitudinally, and compares the structures of global trademarks and patents. It suggests that network analysis provides useful tools for describing recent trends in the globalization of technology. Network analyses describe which countries have higher technological capabilities, and also how countries are mutually connected for technological collaboration or transfer. In addition, network analysis confirmed that both the trademark and patent networks have become decentralized over time.     

Resistance to technology adoption: The rise and decline of guilds

This paper analyzes the decision of a group of specialized workers to form a guild and block the adoption of a new technology that does not require their specialized input. The theory predicts an inverted-U relation between guilds and market size: for small markets, firm profits are insufficient to cover the fixed cost of adopting the new technology, and hence, specialized workers have no reason to form guilds; for intermediate sized markets, firm profits are large enough to cover the higher fixed costs, but not large enough to defeat workers' resistance, and so workers form guilds and block adoption; and for large markets, these profits are sufficiently large to overcome worker resistance and so guilds disband and the more productive technology diffuses throughout the economy. We show that this inverted-U relation between guilds and market size predicted by our theory exists in a dataset of Italian guilds from the 14th to the 19th century.     

Global distribution of micro–nano technology and fabrication centers: A portfolio analysis approach

Micro and Nano Technologies (MNT) are potential economic engines that have the capability to become the basis for regional and national job and wealth creation. Some have even suggested that MNT along with information technology and media form the basis of a new Schumpeterian or Kondratief wave. Many governments recognizing MNT as enabling technologies with exceptional economic potential have embraced them as centerpieces of their technology policy. Many of these same countries and regions as an expression of their technology policy are creating national centers that embrace the promise of MNT. These international Micro and Nano Technology Centers (MNTC) have taken a variety of forms.Here we review the variety of forms and define the nature of many these major MNTCs from around the world by describing some of their similarities and differences. We provide an insight into many of these centers' demonstrated policy and tactics as they optimize their value to their constituents. Finally we provide a contribution to the literature by providing a categorization scheme for global MNTCs based on our exploration.     

统筹城乡发展:国外经验借鉴及启示——以成都试验区建设为例

本文援引国外在统筹城乡发展中的成功经验,如政府干预、立法保障、土地改革、加大对农村财政支付力度、多途径解决农民进城之忧、重视统筹城乡发展的科学规划等,据此得出对成都试验区建设的启示,即:进一步推进政府职能转变、完善相关的地方性法律法规、深化农村土地产权制度改革、健全财政支农支出增长机制、为农民工转变为新市民创造条件、科学规划城镇规模化发展、统筹城乡环境保护与建设等。     

A new definition and framework for the development of a national technology strategy: The case of nanotechnology for Iran

In this research, we use the concepts of “national technology policy” as well as the “firm technology strategy” in defining a new definition for “national technology strategy”. Then, by examining several national technology strategies in a variety of fields in different countries the national nanotechnology strategy for Iran is developed. Furthermore, using capability-effectiveness matrix and SWOT analysis we identify strategies of nanotechnology development in Iran. Finally, considering other countries' strategies and the results of PROMETHEE Method, we prioritize different areas of nanotechnology for Iranian economy, and test for the validity of the extracted strategies.     

Zvi Griliches's contributions to the economics of technology and growth*

Zvi Griliches's contributions to the economics of technology and growth are identified. Included is a discussion of his contributions on: the determinants of differences in speed of adoption of innovations; the use of patents to measure technology; the private and social returns to R&D; and spillover effects from R&D. Griliches's own evaluation of his research contribution is compared to the evaluation of others in the field, using as evidence citation counts of his works collected from the online Web of Science. Griliches's most important contribution is his 1957 Econometrica hybrid corn paper that is a foundation of the economics of technological innovation. Remarkably, the trend in annual citations to the paper has continued to increase for over 40 years. Finally, we summarize Griliches's most recent views on the practice of economics and on the most important unanswered questions in the economics of technology and growth.     

The future of mobile shopping: The interaction between lead users and technological trajectories in the Japanese market

This paper uses the concepts of lead users and technological trajectories and the current status of mobile shopping in Japan to forecast the future of mobile shopping. In interviews with more than 100 Japanese and foreign firms between 2000 and 2005, the author investigated the impact of a number of technological trajectories on mobile shopping applications that are suggested to be promising ones based on the behavior of lead users. Push-based Internet mail and other key services that are not yet available in Western markets were the initial drivers of the market for mobile shopping in Japan between 2001 and 2003. Currently, the fastest growing market for mobile shopping in Japan involves the integration of mobile sites with other media such as magazines and radio and television programs where these other media compensate for the small screens of mobile phones. This paper forecasts the impact of improvements along a number of technological trajectories on the integration of mobile sites with other media.     

Determinants of initial technology adoption and intensification: evidence from Latin America and the Caribbean

In this paper, we examine determinants of initial adoption and subsequent intensification of commercial use of the internet. In contrast to previous examinations that have looked at initial adoption and intensification in the highest income countries, we study companies in Latin America and the Caribbean and so contribute to empirical understanding of the two types of adoption. Many variables such as company size and industry intensification previously identified as influential in high-income regions continue to be important determinants. Novel determinants are also found, including informal sector competition and regional influence. There are sharp differences in determinants between the two adoption types.     

Exploring technology diffusion and classification of business methods: Using the patent citation network

Among the many technology forecasting indicators, patents and patent citations are useful and important indicators. The more frequently a certain patent is cited by subsequent patents, the more the related technology can be said to be diffused, implying that the technology is more widely applied and thus more valuable. This paper analyzes the business methods technology which retrieves patents from the USPTO database. There are two purposes of this paper: 1. establish the indicators for finding basic patents and measure the relationship of these basic patents; 2. classify the basic patents and explain the groups of technology diffusion. Finally, this study identifies the two mainstreams in business method technology: one is focused on marketing technology, and the other one stresses on data security. Both are important for Internet data processes or e-commerce activities.