Earnings Volatility and Earnings Prediction: Analysis and UK Evidence

This paper confirms that US evidence of a negative relationship between earnings persistence and earnings volatility applies to UK firms over the period 1991–2010. Our analytical framework highlights the possibility that this result may reflect downward estimation bias in earnings persistence (and persistence of cash flow and accruals components of earnings) related to transitory earnings elements. Out‐of‐sample forecasts, based on models estimated for earnings volatility quartiles, suggest significant improvement in earnings forecasts for lower volatility firms. The results also suggest that the negative association between earnings persistence and volatility may be due to both estimation bias and variation in core earnings persistence.     

Early influences on saving behaviour: Analysis of British panel data

Using data from the British Household Panel Survey and Understanding Society, we examine the saving behaviour of individuals over time. Initially, we explore the determinants of the saving behaviour of children aged 11–15. Our findings suggest that parental allowances/pocket money (earnings from part-time work) lower (increase) the probability that a child saves. There is also evidence that the financial expectations of the head of household have an influence on their offspring’s saving behaviour, where children of optimistic parents have a lower probability of saving by approximately 2 percentage points. However, there is no evidence of an intergenerational correlation in savings behaviour: the saving behaviour of parents appears to have no bearing on the saving decisions of their offspring. We then go on to explore the implications of the saving behaviour of children for their savings decisions in later life, specifically when observed in early adulthood. We find that having saved as a child has a large positive influence both on the probability of saving on a monthly basis and on the amount saved as an adult. This finding is robust to alternative empirical strategies including IV analysis where the most conservative estimates show that having saved as a child increases the probability of saving during adulthood by 12 percentage points.     

Measuring investors’ assessment of earnings persistence: do investors see through smoothed earnings?

Prior studies document that investors value persistent earnings more than transitory earnings. This argument offers incentives to managers to smooth their reported earnings and make them look more persistent. This study examines whether investors are misled by management’s income-smoothing behavior and whether they can correctly assess the persistence of smoothed earnings. Using a simple theoretical model, this paper shows that investors’ assessment of earnings persistence can be derived from their reactions to reported earnings, which is the ratio of the coefficient on earnings change relative to the coefficient on earnings level in the return–earnings relation. Empirical results show that investors’ assessment of earnings persistence is negatively associated with the level of income smoothing after controlling for time-series persistence of earnings and hence suggest that investors understand that the high persistence of smoothed earnings is not real and they discount the persistence of smoothed earnings when they react to such earnings news.     

Wealth portfolios and elite professional athletes

Defined contribution pension plans typically rely on some type of lifecycle allocation investment strategy. This approach has recently been shown to be sub-optimal due to the portfolio size effect. The terminal wealth of individuals with steadily increasing earnings over time is significantly less when using a lifecycle strategy compared with a simple contrarian approach. The adverse effect of an inappropriate asset allocation strategy for investors with unorthodox earnings profiles, such as for professional athletes, can be greatly magnified. We demonstrate that strategies that exploit the portfolio size effect vastly dominates terminal wealth earned using lifecycle strategies for individuals who experience unorthodox earning profiles, particularly those generating high investable incomes early in life. While the lifecycle strategy contains some attractive features relating to risk aversion and diminishing utility from wealth, we demonstrate that for unorthodox earnings profiles the case for taking advantage of the portfolio size effect is particularly strong.     

Alternative adjustments to analysts' earnings forecasts: relative and complementary performance

This study examines the relative and complementary performance of alternative earnings forecast adjustments using a common set of consensus analysts’ earnings forecasts. We document that a simple adjustment to analysts’ earnings forecasts, based solely on cross-sectional relationships between actual and forecasted earnings in the prior year, performs as well as more complicated adjustment methods, i.e., composite forecasts and persistence adjusted forecasts. A forecast adjustment that is based on prior year earnings and returns, however, provides significant incremental reductions in forecast error and dominates all of the other adjustment methods.     

Earnings Persistence and Stock Market Reactions to the Different Information in Book-Tax Differences: Evidence from China

Prior studies document that book-tax differences (BTDs) reflect divergent reporting rules for book and tax purposes, and contain information about earnings management and tax planning. In this paper, we investigate whether the regulatory and opportunistic information impounded in BTDs differentially influences earnings persistence and the earnings–returns relation. Using BTD data from China, we separate BTDs into normal BTDs (NBTDs) and abnormal BTDs (ABTDs). NBTDs are more likely driven by regulatory differences between accounting and tax rules and ABTDs are more likely driven by earnings and tax management activities. We find that firms with large positive and negative ABTDs (NBTDs) exhibit less earnings persistence compared to firms with small ABTDs (NBTDs). However, the level of earnings persistence for large unsigned ABTD firms is significantly lower than it is for large unsigned NBTD firms. While large unsigned NBTDs appear to enhance the earnings–returns relation, we find no evidence that large unsigned ABTDs affect the earnings–returns relation. Overall, the results suggest that the differing components of BTDs have differential implications for earnings quality. Additional tests show that ABTDs and NBTDs can provide incremental information about earnings persistence beyond the information in discretionary accruals and total accruals, suggesting that the investigation of BTDs adds value to financial analysis.     

Domestic and Foreign Earnings, Stock Return Variability, and the Impact of Investor Sophistication

We examine the importance of foreign earnings relative to domestic earnings for a sample of U.S. multinationals using variance decomposition. Our methodology represents an alternative and complementary approach over the prior literature, which is based on traditional regressions and earnings response coefficients. We document that domestic earnings are more important in explaining the variance of unexpected returns than are foreign earnings and that the relative importance of domestic earnings is a decreasing function of investor sophistication. Last, we classify institutional investors as either short‐ or long‐term oriented following Bushee [1998]. We find that the variance contribution of foreign earnings increases with the level of investment by long‐term investors. In contrast, there is no significant relation between the degree of ownership by short‐term (or transient) investors and the variance contribution of domestic and foreign earnings. Overall, our results are consistent with Thomas's [1999] finding that investors on average underestimate the persistence of foreign earnings.     

On the Asymmetric Recognition of Good and Bad News in France, Germany and the United Kingdom

We investigate whether accounting systems recognise bad news more promptly in earnings than good news, where news is proxied by changes in share price. The analysis is based on a sample of firm/years drawn from France, Germany, and the UK during 1990 to 1998. These three countries are the originators of three distinct legal traditions. Previous studies have argued that asymmetric recognition, one manifestation of conservative accounting, is sensitive to legal background and history. We find that in all three countries the contemporaneous association between earnings and returns is much stronger for bad news (i.e. when price changes are negative) than for good news, and although the results are strongest for the UK, and then France, the inter-country differences are not statistically significant. The stronger reaction to bad news is more pronounced for firms with relatively low capitalisation. We also find that the relative persistence of profits and losses are consistent with asymmetric recognition in France and the UK, but not in Germany, and that the more timely recognition of bad news is maintained even when we control for earnings persistence. When we extend the model to include price changes from previous periods, we see that the stronger reaction to bad news decays over time. The results from this model also suggest that 'pervasive' conservatism, unrelated to news, is observed in Germany and France, but the UK results are consistent with optimism. Although asymmetric recognition is generally strongest in the UK and weakest in Germany, and this broadly conforms to our expectations, the differences are less clear than the results from earlier periods.     

A UK Test of an Inflation‐Adjusted Ohlson Model

Abstract:   This paper conducts a UK test of a version of the Ohlson (1995) model. We should only expect abnormal earnings to revert to zero if the book value of assets is economically meaningful. In this paper we make use of the property revaluations common in UK accounts, but estimate other asset values and earnings in inflation‐adjusted terms. This, we argue, gives rise to estimates of abnormal earnings that can reasonably be expected to revert to zero. We then test this modified model on UK data using the Dechow, Hutton and Sloan (1999) method. In line with the predictions of the Ohlson model, we find that these modified abnormal earnings appear to mean revert, and that a first order autoregressive process is sufficient to capture the persistence of UK real abnormal earnings. The modified abnormal earnings model in general predicts one year ahead earnings more successfully than an unmodified model. Furthermore, for much of the sample period, one year ahead predictions of abnormal earnings are better for the real model during periods of higher inflation. The undervaluation problem found in prior studies appears to be replaced with an overvaluation problem in the real model which is more acute during periods of high inflation. Last, we show that an estimate of the model based upon an industry level specification appears to perform no better than a market‐wide specification of the model.     

Understanding Society: the income data

We introduce the income data of Understanding Society, the UK Household Longitudinal Study. First, we show that the data are widely used in academic and policy research. We then discuss the pros and cons of different types of data on household incomes. We go on to describe the income content of Understanding Society, emphasising key details of data collection and data processing – specifically the derivation of net household income totals. We perform a quality assessment that compares Understanding Society estimates of net household incomes to those from a reliable cross-sectional source – the Households Below Average Income series. We conclude that the Understanding Society income data are of high quality, and so are an excellent source for research on the income distribution or incomes more generally. We finish with a discussion of future directions for income data collection in the study.     

The effect of changes in Japanese consolidation policy on analyst forecast error

Our broad research objective is to investigate whether convergence towards international standards improves the decision usefulness of information. Recent changes in Japanese consolidated reporting practices to better align with international standards provide an excellent setting to investigate this research objective. Specifically, we examine the effect of changes in Japanese consolidation policy on financial analysts’ perceptions of the persistence of subsidiary earnings. Previous research provides evidence that, prior to the change in consolidation policy, consolidated financial information was not used efficiently in the Japanese capital market. Prior research finds a positive relation between subsidiary earnings and future stock returns in Japan, indicating that investors underestimate the persistence of subsidiary earnings. Consistent with prior research using stock returns, we find that financial analysts also underestimate the persistence of subsidiary earnings in Japan. We document a significant positive relation between subsidiary earnings and future forecast errors of consolidated earnings. However, following the changes in consolidation policy in Japan, we find that financial analysts no longer underestimate the persistence of subsidiary earnings. Changes in Japanese consolidation policy in conformance with international standards increase decision usefulness by improving the ability of financial analysts to predict overall firm performance. One limitation of our research design relates to the adoption of mandated accounting policy changes by all sample firms in the same calendar time. This makes it difficult to control for the impact of correlated omitted variables. While this concern can never be completely eliminated, we provide additional tests that examine sample partitions by firm size and industry. These additional tests support the primary findings that Japan’s efforts to converge consolidation rules with international standards have improved analysts’ consolidated earnings forecasts.     

Sneaking in the back door? An evaluation of reverse mergers and IPOs

I examine whether the financial reporting quality of firms that access capital markets through reverse mergers differs from that of firms that rely on the traditional and more onerous IPO process. Using a broad sample of reverse merger firms and a propensity-score matched sample of IPOs, I find that reverse merger firms exhibit lower earnings quality as measured by several earnings attributes established in prior literature: accrual quality, earnings persistence, earnings predictability, cash persistence, cash predictability, earnings smoothness, timeliness, and value relevance. I document similar results for firms with low levels of institutional ownership. Differences in earnings quality, however, are attenuated for reverse merger firms with higher levels of institutional ownership. Given recent U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission enforcement actions against Chinese reverse merger firms, I also use a difference-in-differences technique and find that the lower financial reporting of reverse merger firms is actually driven by the non-Chinese reverse merger firms.     

股权分置改革的盈余质量效应

股权分置改革后,股价直接决定了股东的财富,持有大量非流通股的控股股东有动机操纵盈余以最大化自身的利益。国有股权转让的限制,导致国有控股股东盈余操纵动机弱于其他股东。本文研究了股权分置改革对国有控股公司和非国有控股公司盈余质量的不同影响。研究结果表明,股权分置改革后,非国有上市公司向上盈余管理程度显著提高,盈余持续性显著降低;而国有上市公司的盈余管理程度和盈余持续性都没有显著变化。本文检验了股权分置改革的成效,研究结论可为投资者的投资行为提供决策支持。     

Classificatory income smoothing: The impact of a change in regime of reporting financial performance

Financial Reporting Standard No. 3 (FRS3) regulated the reporting of financial performance by UK firms from 1993 until the adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards in 2005. FRS3 outlawed extraordinary items, but allowed a clearer distinction between recurring and transitory income by giving firms discretion over the classifications of unusual (i.e. exceptional) items and the option to disclose alternative EPS. Through these provisions FRS3 increased the scope for classificatory choices as a means to highlight persistent profitability. We examine the impact of FRS3 on classificatory smoothing by UK firms and document a significant rise in this practice post-FRS3. We find that this increase is due mainly to deviations of net income from expected earnings inducing a significantly higher level of classificatory smoothing post-FRS3. Additional analysis shows that earnings are substantially more persistent at the pre-exceptional level post-FRS3. Overall, our results suggest greater use of classificatory choices to highlight sustainable profitability after the change in performance reporting regime.     

Evidence of differing market responses to beating analysts’ targets through tax expense decreases

Returns are positive when firms meet or beat analysts’ consensus forecasts, but negative when firms miss. Prior research finds little substantial discount for managing earnings to beat the forecasts via accruals generally. We consider whether the market reward for beating the forecast is smaller when firms use tax expense decreases, which are visible and transparent at the earnings announcement date, unlike accruals. When firms beat analysts’ forecasts by decreasing their tax expense relative to the third-quarter rate, the market discounts the reward by an economically significant amount: approximately 86%. We document lower persistence of current-year tax changes for those firms that decrease tax expense to beat the target. The observed discount for beating the forecast only because of a third to fourth quarter tax decrease may reflect market perceptions of the lack of persistence of the decrease.     

Do Restatements Improve the Persistence of Earnings and Its Components?

We examine the persistence of earnings in the pre‐ and postrestatements periods and find that restatements generally improve the persistence of earnings. We also examine how the persistence of earnings is influenced by restatements that are voluntarily initiated by managers (voluntary restatements) and those forced onto firms by outsiders (mandated restatements). Our analysis shows that voluntary restatements are followed by improvement in the persistence of earnings and that mandated restatements are not followed by improvement in earnings persistence. We find results that are consistent with the main finding when we decompose earnings into accruals and free cash flows. We use a difference‐in‐difference research design and confirm that the improvement in the postrestatement persistence of earnings components exceeds that of control firms only for voluntary restatements. Further, we show that our results are robust after controlling for endogeneity of voluntary restatements by including a two‐stage model using the Heckman ( 1979 ) method where we first estimate the likelihood of manipulation detection and analyze change in persistence conditional on the first stage analysis. The improvement in earnings persistence around voluntary restatements is not driven by the level of earnings decomposition or a subgroup of voluntary restatements. The results support our hypothesis that voluntary restatements have distinctly different economic consequences from mandated restatements.     

Dissecting and connecting the growth and accounting distortion components of accruals

This study refines the accrual decomposition approach in Richardson et al. (Account Rev 81:713–743, 2006) and introduces a growth measure that is free from accounting distortions. My evidence indicates that the lower persistence of accruals extends to accruals that are unrelated to accounting distortions. I, however, find that the growth and accounting distortion components of accruals are not isolated. Growth may provide a context where firms have more incentives to manipulate earnings. I provide evidence that the persistence of both the growth and accounting distortion components of accruals is affected by firm growth and agency cost factors, such as free cash flows, leverage, and overvalued equity. I also document high accounting distortions for relatively high-growth firms that are close to reporting positive earnings, and negative accounting distortions for relatively low-growth firms that are far from the potential to report positive earnings.     

Educational inequality: the widening socio‐economic gap

In this paper, we consider research on links between higher education and family background, focusing particularly on the experiences of two cohorts of individuals born in 1958 and 1970. The findings point to a rise in educational inequality during the period relevant to these two cohorts. Specifically, links between educational achievement and parental income / social class strengthened during this period. Furthermore, a person's actual (measured) ability became a poorer predictor of whether they would get a degree than was previously the case. The expansion of higher education in the UK during this period appears to have disproportionately benefited children from richer families rather than the most able. Furthermore, the labour market success or failure of individuals became more closely connected to their parents' income, revealing a fall in the extent of intergenerational mobility over time.     

Education and Public Policy

This article surveys the literature on education as a matter of public policy. We present international comparisons of expenditure on education and then discuss the contribution of education to economic growth, distinguishing between growth accounting and regression approaches, but concluding that the picture is still confused. We assess the risky nature of investment in higher education and also discuss the link between educational experience and social class. We show that this, when studied in aggregate, accounts for less than half of the persistence of earnings between fathers and sons but it nevertheless does a good job of relating fathers’ and sons’ occupations. Finally, we look at the link between education and earnings in the UK. For most subjects, the private return to university education has held at over 15 per cent p.a. despite the introduction of fees. However, some subjects offer a negative return.     

A symposium on Understanding Society,the UK Household Longitudinal Study: introduction

Understanding Society, the UK Household Longitudinal Study began in 2009, and built on and incorporated its predecessor the British Household Panel Survey. It is the largest survey of its kind in the world and provides rich opportunities for economic research and policy analysis. In this introduction to a symposium on Understanding Society, we review the main features of the study, how it is conducted, and evidence on data quality. We also discuss past and potential uses in economic research.