The Equivalence of Wage and Price Staggering in Monetary Business Cycle Models

This paper considers the persistence puzzle documented by V. Chari, P. Kehoe, and E. McGratten (2000, Econometrica68, 1151–1179). Specifically, it addresses a claim by T. Andersen (1998, European Economic Review42, 593–603) and K. Huang and Z. Liu (1999, “Staggered Contracts and Business Cycle, Persistence,” Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Discussion Paper 127) that staggered-wage models are better able to generate persistent real responses to monetary shocks than are staggered-price models. The paper argues that this result hinges on the assumption of homogeneous factor markets and shows that by assuming firm-specific factor inputs the staggered-price model is as capable as the staggered-wage model is of generating persistent real responses to monetary shocks. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E24, E31, E32     

The Role of the Business Cycle in Exchange Rate Pass-Through: The Case of Finland

In this paper we investigate whether exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) responds nonlinearly to economic activity along the business cycle. Using quarterly data spanning the period 1975:1 to 2011:1, we explore the existence of nonlinearities in ERPT to CPI inflation for the Finnish economy. Within a logistic smooth transition framework, our investigations reveal a strong regime-dependence of pass-through, depending positively on economic activity. Besides, point estimates indicate that the long-run pass-through coefficient is equal to 0.15 % (weakly significant) when GDP growth is below a threshold of 3 %. However, when the Finnish economy’s growth rate speeds up—above the threshold of 3 %—ERPT elasticity increases to 0.47 %. These results provide some useful guidance on how policymakers should act over different phases of the business cycle. More specifically, monetary policy should factor in the nonlinear mechanism of ERPT over the business cycle in order to prevent exchange rate movements from fueling a continuous inflationary process.

     

The Hayekian Puzzle: Spontaneous Order and the Business Cycle

In his early years, F. A. Hayek focused his research on the theory of capital and the business cycle. Later he turned to social philosophy and the theory of a spontaneous economic order. The two phases, it is argued in this paper, correspond to two basically incompatible research programs—general equilibrium theory vs. a theory of adapting, collective learning, and expectation formation. Hayek never reconsidered business cycle theory in the light of his later thought. The paper asks why and discusses what role cyclical fluctuations in aggregate economic activity may have to be play in the theory of spontaneous economic order.     

货币与经济周期:后凯恩斯主义的逻辑

2008年全球金融危机以降, 以明斯基 “金融不稳定性假说” 为代表的后凯恩斯主义内生经济周期理论引发了越来越多的关注。 从20 世纪六七十年代的各色剑桥经济增长周期模型, 发展到八九十年代之后的各种内生货币理论和金融不稳定性理论, 货币和金融要素逐渐成为后凯恩斯主义经济周期理论当中不可或缺的独特要素。 后凯恩斯主义一方面从投资融资切入引出货币金融, 从经济扩张期间投资利润现金流入与债务偿付现金流出二者之间的失衡所产生的金融脆弱性和 “动态不稳定性” 视角出发, 描述了 “稳定孕育着不稳定” 的基本周期的循环交替; 另一方面则从更广泛的市场内生动态与政府干预等阻遏性制度安排之间的相互作用着眼,从金融制度的长期演变所产生的 “结构不稳定性” 问题出发, 刻画了超级周期的更迭演化。 货币与金融在这两种叠加的周期循环中扮演着至关重要的角色, 构成了 “动态不稳定性” 与 “结构不稳定性” 动态的有机组成部分。     

The Australian Business Cycle: Its Definition and Existence*

Recent research has suggested that for a number of economies, aggregate output does not behave in a stationary way about a fixed trend Campbell and Mankiw have provided much evidence, and their techniques are adopted here to indicate that Australia's national output has behaved in a way similar to that of other similar economies.     

Foreign Aid and International Support as a Gift Exchange

Regressions on data from 1948 to 1979 indicate that the US and the Soviet Union used foreign aid to stimulate international political support from the receivers of aid and that aid receivers allocated their political support to stimulate aid from these donors. The regressions are based on a game theoretical model in which aid donors provide aid to reach foreign policy goals and in which aid receivers in return give political support to the donors so as to raise foreign aid. With foreign policy ambitions, aid should be given the countries with low GDP levels, while if altruistic considerations determine aid, countries with low levels of GDP per capita should be the beneficiaries. Since foreign aid to some extent was the result of cold war rivalry, the changes in international relations which occurred with the fall of the Soviet Union, should lower total foreign aid.     

世界经济周期研究述评

本文对世界经济周期的概念、存在与否、产生原因、中国经济与世界经济的协同性等方面的研究成果进行了综述,并提出了进一步研究的方向。     

Foreign Aid and the Business Cycle

This paper documents empirical regularities in the foreign aid flows to developing countries over three decades. In spite of a large body of literature on foreign aid and its impact on recipients, surprisingly little is known about its business cycle characteristics. The authors show that for the vast majority of African recipients, aid flows are a major source of income that is highly volatile and, most importantly, overwhelmingly procyclical. For recipients outside of Africa, there is a similar—if somewhat less pronounced—pattern of aid procyclicality. In contrast, there is little evidence of aid procyclicality with the business cycle of donors. In light of the very high volatility of output in developing countries, the procyclicality of foreign aid flows from the recipients' perspective raises serious questions related to their welfare and growth.     

Inventories and the Business Cycle*

This paper examines the relationship between the inventory cy and the business cycle using both macroeconomic and survey da It is argued that over the past decade and a half, the changes inventory management have reduced the amplitude of the inventc cycle. The paper also argues that the behaviour of inventories consistent with demand shocks being an important source of business cycle fluctuations.     

Union Leaders as Experts: Wage Bargaining and Strikes with Union‐Wide Ballot Requirements*

To avoid strikes and to curb labour militancy, some governments have introduced legislation stating that union leadership as well as wage offers should be decided through union‐wide ballots. This paper shows that members still have incentives to appoint militant union leaders, if these leaders have access to information critical for the members’ voting decisions. Furthermore, conflicts may arise in equilibrium even though the contract zone is never empty and there is an option to resolve any incomplete information. Ballot requirements hence preclude neither militant union bosses nor inefficient conflicts.     

International Trade and the Business Cycle

This paper develops a new empirical framework for analysing the dynamics of the trade balance in response to different types of macroeconomic shocks. The model provides a synthetic perspective on the conditional correlations between the business cycle and the trade balance that are generated by different shocks and attempts to reconcile these results with unconditional correlations found in the data. The results suggest that, in the post-Bretton Woods period, nominal shocks have been an important determinant of the forecast error variance for fluctuations in the trade balance in G-7 countries.     

Business Cycle Asymmetries: International Evidence

This paper uses the Triples test of Randles et al. (1980, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 75, 168–172) to detect asymmetries in U.S. as well as international GDP fluctuations. The test does not detect any asymmetry in the distribution of the U.S. GDP, which is consistent with previous empirical findings. However, significant asymmetries are found in international data. Detection of asymmetries is a first step toward model-selection process such that stylized facts can be replicated. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E3, E32, C14.     

技术冲击与中国经济周期波动

本文基于一个较为一般的动态一般均衡框架,从理论上探讨了技术冲击的长期影响。以此为基础,我们使用SVAR方法识别出导致中国经济周期波动的技术冲击,并且估计了它们对产出和通胀的动态影响,以及对二者波动的贡献率。结果发现,技术冲击虽然是中国经济周期波动的主要成因,但其贡献要远小于现有的其他实证结果。     

Endogenous Money Supply and the Business Cycle

This paper documents changes in the cyclical behavior of nominal data series that appear after 1979:Q3 when the Federal Reserve implemented a policy to lower the inflation rate. Such changes were not apparent in real variables. A business cycle model with impulses to technology and a role for money is used to show how alternative money supply rules are expected to affect observed business cycle facts. In this model, changes in the money supply rules have almost no effect on the cyclical behavior of real variables, yet have a significant impact on the cyclical nature of nominal variables.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Numbers: E32, E42, E50.     

Public Employment and the Business Cycle*

We add a public employment sector to the basic search and matching model in order to study the business cycle impact of public wage and employment policies. The government is assumed to follow exogenous rules for public wages and employment calibrated to match some cyclical features of US policies. These features include a positive public wage premium and mildly procyclical public wages and employment. We find that the presence of the public sector increases the volatility of employment and output.     

Patterns of Productivity Growth and the Wage Cycle in Turkish Manufacturing

In this paper we investigate the distributional consequences of the post-1980 accumulation patterns and technological change in the Turkish manufacturing industries. We utilise two quantitative techniques. First, we make use of the Hodrick-Prescott filter to disintegrate the cyclical variations in productivity growth and wage rates from their respective historical trends, and study the evolution of the wage cycle against the long term productivity patterns in the sector. Next, we decompose the fundamental characteristics of the contributions of productivity growth of the manufacturing sub-sectors to the overall total. Our results suggest very little structural change in the sectoral composition and nature of productivity advances under the post-1980 structural adjustment reforms and outward-orientation, and underscore that the gains in productivity in this period did not materialise as gains in remunerations of wage labour. Contrary to the prognostications of the orthodox theory, the post-1980 export orientation of Turkish manufacturing was not found to lend itself to productivity contributions, and could not be sustained as a viable strategy of 'export-led industrialisation'.