企业出口与水平型FDI内生选择机制分析

与以往单独研究投资或贸易不同,本文在跨国投资理论基础上融入了国际贸易,用以研究多国(地区)制造业企业进入中国市场的方式。通过梳理一般产业均衡模型分析企业选择出口还是水平型FDI的内在机制,在此基础上进行实证检验,并得出结论:工厂规模经济和运输成本对样本国家(地区)制造业企业以出口还是水平型FDI方式进入中国市场起重要作用,而关税壁垒、公司规模经济、税收对此没有显著影响;采用基尼系数和GDP衡量中国实际市场需求时发现,中国市场变化没有促使样本国家(地区)制造业企业由出口方式转向水平型FDI。     

Export instability and economic structure: An east-west comparison

Conclusion The purpose of this paper was to extend Massell’s model of export instability to the case of the European market and centrally planned economies. Using a common measure of export instability we first saw that the MEs displayed significantly greater export instability than the CPEs. Applying our extension of the Massell model we then found that this difference could be satisfactorily explained by the “other” structural characteristics of the economies involved, and one need not therefore invoke the difference in economic systems. In particular, exports of food and raw materials were each found to be significantly associated with greater export instability, while there was also a strong suggestion that countries with higher GNPC tended to experience, net of the other variables in the system, a greater degree of instability. Finally, a comparison of these results with those obtained by Massell revealed striking contrasts, indicating that very different policy conclusions could be drawn from the results of the two studies.     

CENTRAL BANK INDEPENDENCE, WAGE-BARGAINING STRUCTURE, AND MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IN OECD COUNTRIES

The impact of central bank independence and wage-bargainingstructure on inflation and unemployment is explored theoreticallyand tested empirically for a sample of 17 OECD countries overtwo separate periods. The results suggest that inflation islower in economies with greater central bank independence andthat the equilibrium unemployment rate depends on the structureof the labour market. Greater central bank independence doesnot appear to be associated with higher unemployment.     

The impact of e-commerce: It always benefits consumers, but may reduce social welfare

This paper investigates the impact of e-commerce on social welfare using a linear city model. Our model incorporates the diversity of consumers such that some can purchase the good via the Internet while others cannot. Our main result is as follows. The appearance of e-commerce enhances retail competition and always increases consumer surplus. However, total surplus does not necessarily improve. This is because the equilibrium market division between conventional stores and e-commerce is not socially optimal and efficiency loss of distribution accrues if the population of Internet shoppers is small and/or the cost of e-commerce is high. Our theoretical results indicate that the small e-commerce market share in the Japanese and US economies may result in welfare loss.     

投资者保护、金字塔结构与控制权私有收益

本文以沪深两市A股2004年-2007年度非流通股交易发生控制权转移公司为样本,基于投资者保护角度研究金字塔结构与控制权私有收益的关系。研究发现,两权分高度、金字塔结构控制层级、控制链条及其复杂程度与控制权私有收益显著正相关,金字塔结构实质上成为控股股东获取控制权私有收益的传送带;进一步检验发现,投资者保护环境的改善在降低控制权私有收益的同时,还能抑制金字塔结构与控制权私有收益的正相关性。     

实际汇率与居民消费风险分担的动态关系——基于预期的视角

通过考虑居民预期行为的作用，实际汇率与居民消费风险分担的动态关系是一个附带预期的渐进调整过程。在利用东亚9个主要经济体的数据对该关系进行研究后发现：（1）东亚各国居民之间的消费风险分担程度较低，但是从2000年之后，居民消费风险分担程度在逐渐提高；（2）实际汇率变动基本上没有平滑东亚各国（地区）居民的消费变动；（3）持有静态预期行为的居民朝向长期消费风险分担均衡的调整程度较小，并且该调整速度较慢，同时持有理性预期行为的居民、持有适应性预期行为的居民背离长期消费风险分担均衡的调整程度较大，并且该调整速度较快，这是造成非完全消费风险分担均衡的重要原因。     

Variety,Globalization, and Social Efficiency

The standard formal presentation of the Dixit‐Stiglitz‐Krugman (DSK) model of monopolistic competition with a constant‐elasticity‐of‐substitution (CES) utility function supposes a sufficient number of firms so that the elasticity of demand facing each variety is approximated by a constant elasticity of substitution. Such a formulation forces economies of scale to be frozen so that firm size never changes. We use a Bertrand‐Nash interpretation of the equilibrium that allows the elasticity of demand facing each variety to depend on the number of varieties, thus allowing the gains from globalization to reflect both the increase in variety and the exploitation of economies of scale. We also develop a precise expression for per capita real income with any number of sectors and examine the age‐old question of the socially optimal number of varieties.     

The Stock Market,Monetary Policy,and Economic Development

In this article, we examine the impact of financial market development on the level of economic development. In particular, we explore this issue in a setting where individuals face idiosyncratic risk. Incomplete information also provides a transaction role for money so that monetary policy can be studied. While an active banking sector promotes risk sharing, we incorporate a market for equity by allowing individuals to trade capital across generations. In this manner, each asset and financial market in our model fulfills a distinct economic function. Consistent with recent empirical work, we find that the impact of access to a stock market may be indeterminate—the economy may respond with significant gains in capital accumulation and risk sharing, or there may be relatively little impact. We also show that the effects of monetary policy vary across the level of financial development. In economies with small stock markets, increasing the amount of liquidity will cause capital accumulation to decline. By comparison, in advanced economies, capital accumulation improves.     

Expectation-driven fluctuations and welfare loss under free trade in two-country models

This paper investigates the interlinkage in the business cycles based on expectation-driven fluctuations of large-country economies in a free-trade equilibrium. We consider a two-country, two-good, two-factor general equilibrium model with sector-specific externalities. We show that some country's expectation-driven fluctuations can spread throughout the world once trade opens even if the other country has determinacy under autarky. We thus prove that under free trade, globalization and market integration can have destabilizing effects on a country's competitive equilibrium. Finally, we characterize a configuration in which opening to international trade improves the stationary welfare at the world level but deteriorates the stationary welfare of the country that imports investment goods and exports consumption goods. We conclude that in opposition to the standard belief, international trade might not be beneficial to all trading partners in the long run.     

The BW 2 regime: an unstable disequilibrium bound to unravel

The paper presents a critical analysis of the Bretton Woods 2 (BW2) hypothesis. According to this view China, other Asian economies and other emerging market economies follow mercantilist policies of maintaining fixed pegs to the US dollar at undervalued levels as a way to pursue export-led growth. The view in the paper is that there is indeed a BW2 regime in some regions of the world. But it is argued that BW2 is different from the first Bretton Woods system: BW2 is structurally unstable and fragile and will unravel over the horizon of the next few years, not a decade or longer. This unraveling could lead to a sharp fall for the US dollar and the US bond market with high real collateral costs with a disorderly rebalancing of the global economy.     

Models of financially repressed developing economies

The past decade has witnessed an explosion of research on financial sector models of financially repressed developing economies. For the most part, financial repression is interpreted to be the technique of holding interest rates (particularly deposit rates of interest) below their free market equilibrium levels. The recent spate of activity in this field was produced by the simultaneous publication in 1973 of books by McKinnon and Shaw. Both authors demonstrate how economic theory can be applied to the analysis of the effects of financial conditions on investment and the real rate of economic growth. Since 1973, models of financially repressed developing economies have been formalized mathematically, extended to open economies in order to analyse exchange rate policies, and tested empirically. This paper presents a critical survey of the major contributions to the literature in this field since 1973.     

International Capital Mobility in the Short Run and the Long Run: A Daily Data Study for Japan,Singapore and Taiwan*

Using daily data from between 1993 and 2003, covered interest differential and cointegration tests are applied to examine short‐run and long‐run international capital mobility for Japan, Singapore and Taiwan, and, for comparison purposes, the UK. Despite the high short‐run mobility in Japan (Singapore and Taiwan), being slightly (significantly) lower than in the UK, perfect long‐run mobility exists in all three Asian economies, especially when the Asian currency crisis is excluded. Different short‐run and long‐run mobility implies the existence of a response lag in the financial market. As expected, although the impulse response reaches the significant long‐run equilibrium level shortly after the shock in the UK, lagged responses appear in the three Asian economies, particularly in Singapore and Taiwan.     

Health,Education and Emergence from the Development Trap

Abstract: This paper studies the emergence of developing countries from a development trap. It shows that countries whose dynamics exhibits several growth peaks can be considered as cases of equilibrium jump. Applying this criterion to a sample of 65 countries that were initially very poor in 1950, it identifies 13 such countries, called ‘emerging economies’. Comparing emerging and non‐emerging economies in the 1950s and early 1960s, it shows that economic take‐offs starting in the 1960s can be related to health and education in the early 1950s, while other possible factors, such as savings, openness and democracy are not significant.     

Law, Finance, and Growth during Transition: a Survey

This paper surveys the literature on law, finance, and growth and assesses its relevance to transition economies. It describes the contribution, as well as the limitations of the legal view literature with regard to our understanding of the causality between financial development and economic growth. The legal view demonstrates that, through its impact on the financial system, an effective legal system indirectly promotes economic development. However, the particularities of the transition process – notably the existence of soft budget constraints – are such that the methodology and the results of the legal view cannot be applied to transition economies without provisos.     

Capital market distortion,firm entry and wage inequality

Distortions in the capital market are notable in developing economies like China. By building up a dual production structure with oligopolistic competition in urban manufacturing, this paper investigates the distributional and welfare effects of capital market distortions. We find that in the short run, an increase in the capital market distortion in favor of urban firms can lower both the skilled and unskilled wages. However, in the long run, the preferential policy on reducing capital cost to the urban sector attracts new entry of firms, which can worsen the skilled-unskilled wage inequality in the economy. This firm-entry effect of the capital market distortion on wage inequality is empirically confirmed for China.     

Corruption,market quality,and entry deterrence in emerging economies

In many emerging economies incumbent firms often use dubious means to deter entry of other firms. We analyze this scenario in a three‐stage game of entry deterrence. The incumbent has incomplete information about the entrant's costs but can increase this cost by resorting to unfair means (e.g. bribing a politician who harms the entrant). We completely characterize the optimal bribe and show that this depends on the “fairness index” and the “differentiation” parameter. We also show that zero bribes need not maximize welfare and market quality. Our results seem to be compatible with anecdotal evidence from emerging economies such as India.     

Taking money seriously David Laidler Cambridge: The MIT press, 1990, xiv, 226 pp.

In Taking Money Seriously and Other Essays, Davis Laidler argues that Walrasian models and new-classical business cycle theories, where transactions occur at equilibrium prices, cannot describe real world economies, where uncertain traders hold "buffer-stocks" of precautionary money balances. Imperfect information leads traders to set prices endogenously and to acquire market information from inflows and outflows of money. Traders adjust prices when cash balances persistently differ from targeted precautionary balances. Unlike standard monetarist and Keynesian models, the buffer-stock theory implies that in the short run actual money holdings frequently differ from desired holdings (unlike the contrary assumption of many money demand studies), that, even when money is endogenous, real balance effects occur, and that the loanable funds theory is the best explanation of interest rates.     

How does the US credit crisis affect the Asia–Pacific economies?—Analysis based on a general equilibrium model

The current financial crisis differs from most post-war recessions in that the balance sheets of both households and banks have been severely damaged, which could lead to structural changes in the behavior of households. Therefore, it may exert some far-reaching effects on regional economies in the short run as well as in the medium term. This paper studies these effects using a multi-country dynamic structural model. In the short run, the US credit crisis weighs heavily upon the Asia–Pacific economies through financial linkages in addition to the traditional trade channel due to the deepening global financial integration. The relative importance of various financial channels differs notably across economies. While stock market contagion is more important for advanced economies, flight to quality across borders plays a key role in less developed economies. From a medium-term perspective, changes in the US household behavior caused by the credit crisis can help correct global imbalances, but the effectiveness hinges largely upon how long US households can maintain a reasonably higher savings rate. In addition, although the declining American public savings rate may not exert material impacts on the global imbalances, it can darken regional growth prospects due to a potentially higher world real interest rate.     

Trade,Job Destruction and Job Creation in European Manufacturing

This paper examines the effects of international trade with the newly industrialized Asian economies on the labor markets of Germany, France, Italy and the United Kingdom. The analysis confirms that, despite the growing importance of this trade, the problems of the European labor market can hardly be explained by the increase in imports of manufactures from the Nies. While job destruction appears completely independent from the trade flows with the emerging Asian economies, the evidence on job creation is less clear cut. In two cases imports appear to have depressed employment dynamics, but in another exports turn out to have stimulated it. The most striking evidence is on sector-specific features and individual characteristics, such as sector of (last) employment, sex and education: these variables appear to be much more important than trade in explaining individuals' positions in the labor market.     

Trade, convergence, and globalisation: The dynamics of the international income distribution, 1950-1998

This paper investigates the evidence for convergence in per capita incomes across 115 economies during the period 1950-1998 and examines the impact that international trade had on this process. Drawing on trade-conditioning within a distribution dynamics framework, that explicitly models frequency distributions of the cross sections of economies over time, this study suggests that trade patterns in the Golden Age were conducive to the formation of middle and high income groups or clubs of economies, but similar trade patterns (dominated by the rich economies) do not seem to explain the perpetuation of these group formations in the post-Golden Age period. If foreign trade is a key aspect of globalisation, why does it matter in accounting for the observed dynamics of the international income distribution during the Golden Age, but not during the decades since the first oil-shock? Further, the evidence from the ergodic (long-run equilibrium) distribution suggests that in the long term the established trade patterns favoured the growth of the rich at the expense of the poor economies across the world.