Exploratory spatial data analysis of the distribution of regional per capita GDP in Yangtze Delta, China: 1994-2004

Based on the spatial economy theory and the exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) technology, this paper studies the space-time dynamics of regional per capita GDP in the Yangtze Delta. A sample of 74 regions in the Yangtze Delta over the period of 1994 to 2004 provides clear evidence of global and local spatial autocorrelation as well as spatial heterogeneity in the distribution of regional per capita GDP The dynamism of regions is investigated by exploring the spatial pattern of regional growth, compared with that before 1997, the economic growth disparities among Shanghai, Zhejiang and Jiangsu provinces have decreased, so have the inside regions of Zhejiang Province, while it is opposite to the inside regions of Jiangsu Province.     

近20年来中国区域经济发展差异的测定与评价

选取人均GDP、人均社会消费零售总额社会经济指标,通过计算其变异系数、加权变异系数、威廉森系数、最大与最小系数,对中国1978-2002年的经济发展不平衡性进行了动态时序分析,定量评价,了近20年来中国区域社会经济发展的差异程度;采用经济区位酶指标分析了中国经济发展空间格局的动态演化过程。结果表明,1990年以前中国经济区域差异程度在减小,1990年以后经济区域差异程度扩大,社会消费水平总体上呈扩大趋势。在空间格局上,经济发达区由过去的东北地区扩展到东部沿海地区,1970-1980年代区域差异表现为经济发达区、经济发展区、经济落后区之间的差异,而到1990年代主要表现为经济发达区和经济落后区之间的差异,两极化趋势明显,区域差异程度加大。     

Regional mobility in the European Union

Regional mobility in the spatial distribution of per capita income in the European Union is examined over the period 1977 to 1999. The methodology used to investigate this issue combines a series of measures taken from the literature devoted to the dynamic study of personal income distribution with a non-parametric analysis. The results show limited mobility in the distribution considered, and a decline in mobility over time. The empirical evidence presented indicates, moreover, that mobility patterns vary as a function of regional development levels. Additionally, the analysis carried out investigates the role played in explaining intra-distribution mobility by variables such as per capita income, population density, per capita expenditure in investment, market potential, and the share in total employment of agriculture, advanced services and non-market services.     

Structural shifts in the dynamics of the European income distribution

This paper aims to evaluate structural shifts in the regional per capita income distribution in Europe between the periods 1980–1993 and 1993–2005. After a brief analysis of several aspects of the distribution (inequality, external shape, polarisation and spatial dependence), we focus on intra-distribution dynamics by applying a novel causative matrix model that reveals strong structural shifts. In particular, increase in relative persistence during the second period has been the major change, especially for regions around the average and those at the upper end of the income distribution.     

江西省农村居民收入时空差异及其影响因素

利用传统统计分析方法和探索性空间数据分析（ESDA）方法相结合,在ArcGIS和GeoDA等软件的支持下,以农村居民人均纯收入为测度指标,从时间、空间、影响因素3个侧面对1997--2010年江西省县域农村居民收入的时空格局及演化进行了分析。结果表明：江西省农村居民收入受1998年洪涝灾害影响明显;区域相对差异总体上呈缓慢扩大趋势,绝对差异呈现波动性缓慢扩大趋势;县域农村居民收入空间相关性显著,高值区在赣北及赣中集聚,低值区在赣南集聚,集聚呈两极分化现象;收入水平在空间格局上表现为显著的南北差异,差异有不断增大的迹象;重大自然灾害、交通区位、与中心城市的空间距离、区域发展政策及矿产资源等都是影响江西省农村居民收入时空差异的重要因素。     

贸易开放、人力资本与 中国区域收入空间效应* ——基于地级及以上行政区域经验数据分析

本文基于中国326个地级及以上行政区域2010-2012年的数据,利用空间杜宾增长模型（SDM）来测算贸易开放对中国区域人均收入的影响。本文测算了各个区域贸易开放和人力资本对人均收入水平的直接、间接和总影响。结果表明：一个区域的贸易开放程度越高越能促进当地经济的发展,对相邻区域的人均收入也会产生正的影响。同时笔者也发现,人力资本对中国各个区域的经济增长会产生正的直接和间接影响。     

自然正交函数在区域经济时空演变中的实证分析——以河南省县域经济为例

为分析河南省10年来区域经济差异的时空演变,以该省1998-2007年各县逐年人均GDP数据为测度指标,尝试采用在气象学中已被广泛应用的自然正交函数(EOF)方法把人均GDP距平阵正交分解为空间甬数场及时间函数.结果表明:EOF方法不仅可以描述整个研究时段内区域经济分异的整体格局,而且可以反映某一区域经济分异格局所占的比重以及该分异格局随时间的连续变化特征,与传统的分析方法相比,EOF方法具有比较明显的优势.     

Disparities in Australian Regional Incomes: Are They Widening or Narrowing?

In this study we examine Australian census data on regional incomes for the period 1976–91. Following a discussion of theories and empirical evidence regarding regional income adjustment, the regional dispersion of per capita income is analysed for the six Australian states and at the sub-state level (statistical divisions, SDs). The coefficient of variation is used as the measure of dispersion, and Gini coefficients are also calculated to analyse income equality within regions. For Australia, the cross-state dispersion of per capita incomes increased over the period, whereas there was neither convergence nor divergence of incomes among Australia's 57 SDs. In addition, the intrastate dispersion of per capita incomes across SDs remained largely unaltered over the period. Gini coefficients indicated that across income strata, the distribution of incomes both within states and within SDs has become more equal.     

Urban–rural income disparities and development in a panel data set of China for the period from 1978 to 2006

We examine the relationship between urban–rural income disparities and development in a panel data set of 30 provinces and regional subsets of China during the period of 1978 to 2006. There is an inverted-U relationship between the urban–rural income gap and per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Financial development by scale widens the urban–rural income gap in all regional samples, while financial sector efficiency and rural bank loans may reduce it in some regions. Government spending raises the urban–rural income gap as well. We also examine the effects of urbanization, openness and education.     

中国跨越“中等收入陷阱”的路径突破与政策应对*——基于地区收入差距视角

“中等收入陷阱”在本质上是收入与增长非线性相关系,而威廉姆森拐点决定着中国经济发展是否落入“中等收入陷阱”的关键。本文基于空间自相关理论提出空间基尼系数的一个分解框架,并运用威廉姆森“倒U型”理论构建“中等收入陷阱”理论模型。结果表明：中国地区收入差距与人均GDP之间存在“倒U型”非线性关系,更确切地说是S型关系。以平滑转化回归模型测算,中国存在人均GDP为4 18930美元拐点,并于2005年越过拐点,但进入地区差距收敛的“高体制”路径仍有一定差距。因此,中国在政策应对上要进一步通过实施高起点的区域协调发展战略,健全宏观配套政策,配合深化收入分配体制改革,从而成功地跨越“中等收入陷阱”。     

Is India Shining?

The popular perception about economic reforms having benefitted only the richer districts of India between 1999/2000 and 2004/2005 is investigated. Using the spatial dynamics of district‐level per‐capita income it was found that income distribution did not change between the years examined. It is argued that this is because of per‐capita income across districts being spatially positively correlated. Physical infrastructure, human capital, and factories are identified as factors responsible for increase in income for both the rich as well as the poor districts. Infrastructure, physical or social, is a key component of growth in India. A policy impact analysis shows development of better drainage and potable water systems has a large impact on income. For the year 2001/02, it was found that for every 1% increase in closed drainage system and potable water, district‐level median income increases by 1.39% and 0.21%, respectively.     

1989—2010年新疆经济发展差异的区域分析

以县域为基本单元,在综合考虑各县域人均GDP和GDP总量变化的基础上,运用象限图法和泰尔指数法,分析了新疆不同县域经济发展类型和县域经济差异的时空变化趋势,结果表明：新疆县域经济呈现不同的增长类型,且在东疆、南疆、北疆之间及区内各县市之间呈现分异性。区域经济滞后型的县域明显多于经济活跃型的县域,经济活跃型的县域集中分布于天山北坡、铁路、公路主干线上,经济滞后型县域集中分布于南疆以及北疆、东疆的边远地区。泰尔指数分析结果表明,在区域总体差异扩大的同时,东疆、南疆、北疆三大区域之间的差异和区内各县域之间的差异都在逐步扩大,并且区内差异是区域总体差异的主要贡献者。     

Assessing the impacts of EU's common agricultural policy on regional convergence: sub-national evidence from Germany

This article assesses the relationship between transfers arising from EU's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and convergence in both farmers’ revenues and interpersonal income redistribution using a sample of 26 regions in the state of Hesse, Germany, over the period 1979 to 2004 and 1991 to 2004, respectively. We thereby combine the concept of sigma convergence with Shorrock's inequality decomposition in order to determine the driving forces in distributional dynamics of farmers’ revenues. Additionally, we apply alternative methodologies to investigate how per capita incomes have evolved over time. Explicitly comparing the situations with and without transfers, our results indicate that the CAP tends to smooth differences in farmers’ revenues across regions, but does not impede a strong divergence through time. The latter is mainly driven by increasing structural differences between the regions, while disparities in intensity turn out to be less important. The empirical analysis also shows that CAP transfers reduce income inequality within society as a whole. However, this impact proved to be negligible in explaining distributional dynamics and growth of per capita incomes.     

Income convergence in Japan: A Bayesian spatial Durbin model approach

With the collapse of the bubble economy in the early 1990s, economic disparities among both people and regions have arisen in Japan. Although developments in spatial econometrics have provided regional convergence studies with highly effective tools to explicitly consider spatial dependence and heterogeneity, there has as yet been no significant research on Japan's economic disparity using spatial econometrics. Moreover, most conventional regional convergence studies on Japan study the post-war high economic growth period before the economic bubble.Hence, the objective of this study is to analyze regional income disparities in Japan in the period after the bubble burst. We use the Bayesian spatial Durbin model, which can consider both spatial dependence and heterogeneity. The data used in this research are annual data collected at the municipality level during 1989-2007. To the best of our knowledge, no research has been conducted to analyze Japan's regional income disparities at the municipality level, though some research has been done at the prefecture level.First, the study suggests that σ-convergence does not hold whether or not spatial dependence is considered. Second, it analyzes regional income convergence by applying the simplified Bayesian spatial Durbin model to the β -convergence approach. The results show that β-convergence holds over 1990-2007.     

Convergence,geography and technology

Empirical studies on regional economic development in Europe traditionally concluded that income per capita converged at a steady rate of about 2%. Recent studies on regional disparity have repudiated these findings: in the 1980s convergence was absent in Europe. This paper adds some new empirical findings. Firstly, convergence re-emerged at the end of the 1980s and in the 1990s. Secondly, growth was a combined result of poor regions catching up with richer ones, peripheral regions growing faster than central ones, innovation and of technology spillovers. Thirdly, by conditioning so-called σ-convergence, it is found that convergence was most pronounced between regions that were localised far away from each other and that were dissimilar in terms of innovative activity, technological specialisation and the amount of spillovers received.     

Convergence in Brazil: recent trends and long-run prospects

This paper applies to the analysis of the interstate income distribution in Brazil a set of techniques that have been widely used in the current empirical literature on growth and convergence. Usual measures of dispersion in the interstate income distribution (the coefficient of variation and Theil's index) suggest that sigma-convergence was an unequivocal feature of the regional growth experience in Brazil, between 1970 and 1986. After 1986, the process of convergence seems, however, to have slowed down almost to a halt. A standard growth model is shown to fit the regional data well and to explain a substantial amount of the variation in growth rates, providing estimates of the speed of (conditional) beta-convergence of approximately 3% p.a. Different estimates of the long-run distribution implied by the recent growth trends point towards further reductions in the interstate income inequality, but also suggest that the relative per capita incomes of a significant number of states and the number of ‘very poor’ and ‘poor’ states were, in 1995, already quite close to their steady-state values.     

A Decomposition Analysis of Regional Poverty in Russia

The paper applies a new decomposition technique to the study of variations in poverty across the regions of Russia. The procedure, which is based on the Shapley value in cooperative game theory, allows the deviation in regional poverty levels from the all‐Russia average to be attributed to three proximate sources: per capita income, inequality, and local prices. Contrary to expectation, regional poverty variations turn out to be due more to differences in inequality across regions than to differences in real income per capita. However, when real income per capita is split into nominal income and price components, differences in nominal incomes emerge as more important than either inequality or price effects for the majority of regions.     

Trade and Inequality with Limited Labor Mobility: Theory and Evidence from China

Does globalization increase inequality in developing countries, and if so, how? In a theoretical model of a regionally heterogeneous economy, we show how different regional rates of technical progress due to trade and FDI interact with constraints to unskilled labor mobility. As favored regions benefit more from trade, their growing demand for skills drains skilled workers from disadvantaged areas, and average incomes in the former grow faster than in the latter. Moreover, this unbalanced regional growth may also raise inequality within each region. It could even reduce absolute income per capita in the less favored region. We test these predictions with Chinese data from the Open Door era. Results confirm that different regional growth rates have increased both interregional and intraregional inequality. Moreover, growth of skills‐based export industries in coastal regions is associated, other things equal, with lower incomes for the poor in inland provinces.     

Factor Mobility and Income Growth: Two Convergence Hypotheses

While technologies and policy fundamentals are presumably different internationally, inducing differences in growth rates, capital mobility can be a powerful force in equalizing output growth rates across countries. The paper provides some indirect evidence in support of this effect. In the context of regional growth, however, labor mobility can potentially equalize income levels across regions in the presence of human capital externalities. Supporting evidence is found for this effect, revealing that restrictions on labor flows tend to make per capita incomes more divergent across nations and/or regions.     

China's regional income disparityAn alternative way to think of the sources and causes1

Using data on China's provincial economies for the period 1978–2005, we decomposed the causes and factors that have contributed to inter‐regional per capita income disparity. Variance in capital per employee and variance in capital elasticity are found to be the two main sources of income disparity while the employment–labour force ratio is shown to be an important factor in containing the rise of income disparity. An analysis on inter‐regional factor reallocation effects reveals their relatively small and insignificant contributions to overall growth performance. It is also discovered that capital has in most years flowed in the right direction to pursue higher marginal productivity across provincial economies. Inter‐provincial labour movement, on the other hand, had not displayed significant equilibrating effects until institutional reforms started to allow freer inter‐regional labour mobility in later years. Generally, we conclude that market‐oriented factor mobility has played a crucial role in equalizing factor returns as well as enhancing growth efficiency across regions.