Forecasting monthly industrial production in real-time: from single equations to factor-based models

The aim of this paper is to analyze the performance of alternative forecasting methods to predict the index of industrial production in Italy from 1 to 3 months ahead. We use twelve different models, from simple ARIMA to dynamic factor models exploiting the timely information of up to 110 short-term indicators, both qualitative and quantitative. This allows to assess the relevance for the forecasting practice of alternative combinations of types of data (real-time and latest available), estimation methods and periods. Out-of-sample predictive ability tests stress the relevance of more indicators in disaggregate models over sample periods covering a complete business cycle (about 7 years in Italy). Our findings downgrade the emphasis on both the estimation method and data revision issues. In line with the classical “average puzzle”, the use of simple averages of alternative forecasts often improves the predictive ability of their single components, mainly over short horizons. Finally, selected indicators and factor-based models always perform significantly better than ARIMA models, suggesting that the short-run indicator signal always dominates the noise component. On this regard, selected indicators models can further increase the amount of signal extracted to improve up to 30–40% the short-run predictive ability of factor-based models and to forecast-encompass them.     

The division of labour and industrial diversity: flexibility and mass production in the French automobile industry

Much of the debate about changing paradigms of production in industry has tended to oppose mass production to emerging forms of flexible, or network production. The debate over these competing visions is clouded by all manner of definitional ambiguities. In a given branch of production, the two strategies of mass and flexible production, and many intermediate forms of production organization, may coexist, because the branch ties together many different types of firms and different types of production units. This article develops a theoretical typology of different kinds of products and the production processes with which they are associated, and then deploys it in a case study of the French automobile industry in the 1980s. The branch is thus a complex structure of relationships between different firms and units and the different models of production organization they employ. Co-ordination of relationships between different approaches to production is a key to successful branch governance, and to emerging branch structures today.     

Semiparametric estimation of the fractional differencing parameter in the UK industrial production index

The order of integration of the industrial production index in the UK is investigated by means of semiparametric techniques in the time and in the frequency domain. Several methods like the RS statistic, along with others proposed by Robinson in a number of articles are applied to various differenced transformations of the log of the series. These methods perform poorly when using the time domain approaches, however, when using the frequency domain, the results are fairly conclusive. Evidence is found of a unit root at the zero frequency in the logged series whether or not the series is monthly seasonally differenced first.     

Embedded industrial production systems: Lessons from waste management in zinc production

To meet the sustainability challenge private companies must implement corporate strategies and adopt novel technologies. The technical and social embeddedness of industrial production systems, however, complicates these systems' transition towards sustainability. In the paper, mechanisms and conditions are reported for the development and implementation of waste management options in embedded industrial production systems. The focus is on the Dutch zinc production industry, which had to deal with a major waste problem; the generation of jarosite. The industry's options were to increase the jarosite waste storage capacity, to develop a jarosite treatment process or to switch to a zinc-ore of low-iron content whereby no jarosite waste would be generated anymore. Required conditions appeared to be a combination of technological capability and technical embedding and favourable economics. Case study research, however, revealed that adequate stakeholder management is crucial to address social pressure exerted and to obtain external acceptance for any transition strategy. Whilst appropriate, internal technological capabilities are important, effective interactions with and enrolment of various firm-external actors are crucial. In the case of zinc, access to the heterogeneous external actor network was critical for the development of the jarosite treatment solution direction. In conclusion, both the technical, organizational and social embedding of new technologies are crucial for successful implementation.     

Health expenditure models: A comparison using panel data

In this article, we focus on the estimation of outpatient expenditures with panel data. We model the logarithm of expenditures and consider five different models. The first two are two-part and sample selection cross-section models. Two-part panel data models turn out to be inappropriate for dealing with expenditures. We thus estimate sample selection models with panel data: one without a lagged dependent variable and two with a lagged dependent variable. These two latter models differ in their assumptions on the variance of the residuals. Modelling heteroscedasticity may indeed be important to avoid the bias due to the retransformation problem. We show that lagged dependent variables are important factors for heteroscedasticity. For the models with state dependence, we provide a new solution to the initial conditions problem by controlling for generalised residuals. We establish that panel data models highly improve the correlation explained by the model in the time-series dimension without damaging the fit in the cross-section dimension. For all indicators of fit, the model with state dependence and heteroscedasticity seems to dominate the others.     

A copula-VAR-X approach for industrial production modelling and forecasting

World economies, and especially European ones, have become strongly interconnected in the last decade and a joint modelling is required. We propose here the use of copulae to build flexible multivariate distributions, since they allow for a rich dependence structure and more flexible marginal distributions that better fit the features of empirical data, such as leptokurtosis. We use our approach to forecast industrial production series in the core European Monetary Union (EMU) countries and we provide evidence that the copula-Vector Autoregression (VAR) model outperforms or at worst compares similarly to normal VAR models, keeping the same computational tractability of the latter approach.     

闽台合作模式与粤港合作模式之比较

1979年中央政府在广东、福建两省实行"特殊政策、灵活措施",并率先在两省设立四个经济特区,以加快广东、福建的经济发展,从而确立了广东、福建在促进祖国大陆与港、台地区实现"一国两制、和平统一"进程中的特殊地位与作用.当时,闽台合作与粤港合作处于同一起跑线,它们的合作模式从主权来说是一个中国框架内的合作,但从独立关税区的角度来看,又有区域合作的特征.20多年过去了,粤港合作实现了经济一体化,而闽台经济合作却举步维艰.     

Nowcasting Chinese GDP: information content of economic and financial data

This article applies the factor model proposed by Giannone, Reichlin, and Small (2005 Giannone, D., Reichlin, L. and Small, D. 2005. “Nowcasting GDP and inflation: The real time information content of macroeconomic data release”. In Finance and Economic Discussion Series 2005–42, Washington, DC: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.  [Google Scholar]) on a large data set to nowcast (i.e. current-quarter forecast) the annual growth rate of China's quarterly GDP. The data set contains 189 indicator series of several categories, such as prices, industrial production, fixed asset investment, external sector, money market, and financial market. This article also applies Bai and Ng's criteria (2002) to determine the number of common factors in the factor model. The identified model generates out-of-sample nowcasts for China's GDP with smaller mean-squared forecast errors than those of the random walk benchmark. Moreover, using the factor model, we find that interest rate data is the single most important block of information to improve estimates of current-quarter GDP in China. Other important blocks are consumer and retail prices data and fixed asset investment indicators.     

Innovation types and labour organisational practices: A comparison of foreign and domestic firms in the Reggio Emilia industrial districts

In his Theory of Economic Development, Schumpeter introduced the distinction between different innovation types. Since then, a variety of studies have addressed this topic. However, despite of the recognised significance of more de-verticalised organisational forms in shaping and directing firms' innovative performance, no attempt has been made, as far as our knowledge is concerned, to investigate whether these practices are linked to the introduction of specific innovation types. The aim of the study is to fill this gap by investigating the impact of de-verticalised forms of labour organisational practices, different modes of organising research and development activity and the nature of employees' competences on the likelihood of introducing different types of innovations, controlling for firm's size and sectoral specificities. The results obtained on a sample of 199 firms located in Reggio Emilia province in Italy confirm that innovation development is a heterogeneous activity. The empirical evidence gathered also shows that foreign and domestic firms do not differ, to some extent, in the introduction of different kinds of innovations. However, being foreign or domestic is a discriminating factor in the introduction of innovations stimulating labour organisational developments.     

Forecasting industrial production and the early detection of turning points

In this paper we propose a simple model to forecast industrial production in Italy up to 6 months ahead. We show that the forecasts produced using the model outperform some popular forecasts as well as those stemming from an ARIMA model used as a benchmark and those from some single equation alternative models. We show how the use of these forecasts can improve the estimate of a cyclical indicator and the early detection of turning points for the manufacturing sector. This is of paramount importance for short-term economic analysis.The first draft of this paper was mostly prepared while Claudio Lupi was working as a Research Director at ISAE. The present version of the paper is a revision of a preliminary draft that was circulated under the same title as ISAE working paper 20/01. The authors would like to thank two anonymous referees, audiences at ISAE, Dublin (22nd International Symposium on Forecasting), and Ente Einaudi (econometrics seminars) for comments. Fruitful discussions and suggestions from Gianluca Cubadda, Sergio de Nardis, John FitzGerald, Antonio García-Ferrer, Franco Peracchi, and Tommaso Proietti are gratefully acknowledged. None of them is responsible for any remaining error. The opinions expressed in this paper are solely the responsibility of the authors and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of ISAE or its staff.First revision received: Ocotber 2002/Final revision received: May 2003     

Estimating noncooperative and cooperative models of bargaining: an empirical comparison

This paper examines the issue of model selection in studies of strategic situations. In particular, we compare estimation results from a noncooperative formulation of government formulation à la (Baron and Ferejohn in Am Poli Sci Rev 87:34–47, 1989) with those from two alternative cooperative formulations (Nash in Econometrica 18:155–162, 1950; Shapley and Shubik in Am Poli Sci Rev 48:787–792, 1954). Although the estimates of the ministerial ranking are similar, statistical testing suggests that the noncooperative formulation is best fitted to the observed data among the alternative models. This result implies that modeling the noncooperative structure in bargaining situations is crucially important at the risk of possibly misspecifying the details of the game.     

The evolution of the industrial organisation of the production of knowledge

This work elaborates the notion of localised technological knowledge,based upon the distinction between information, competence andknowledge, and analyses the emergence of the new knowledge industry.The evolution of the organisation of knowledge production isanalysed through four stylised modes: scientific entrepreneurship,institutional variety, vertical integration and technologicalcooperation. The new trends towards the growth of knowledge-intensivebusiness service industries are detected and underlined. Theyare considered as the outcome of the institutional formationof a market for knowledge based upon a process of increasingappropriability of localised knowledge based on: the blendingof generic scientific information and competence and growingscope of applicability via computer-communication systems; deverticalisationof research activities from the boundaries of corporations;the specification of a demand for technological competence;and the specialising of independent firms in the productionof technological competence and knowledge.     

工伤保险与团体意外伤害保险的分析与比较

文章阐述了工伤保险和团体意外伤害保险的溯源及性质,分析了两种保险之间的关系与区别。工伤保险和团体意外伤害保险是一种功能互补关系,并对企业的安全生产及提高劳动者保障水平,增强企业凝聚力和增进企业职工福利具有重要作用。     

中国企业海外投资模式比较分析

随着中国对外开放的深入和中国企业自身实力的不断增强,越来越多的国内企业开始放眼全球、进军海外,开展跨过经营和海外直接投资,寻找新的战略发展空间。据商务部统计,截至2003年底,我国累计批准境外投资企业7470家,中方协议投资额已达114.28亿美元。在走出国门的弄潮儿中,涌现了一批成功的佼佼者。由于各个企业自身的条件、所处的行业及实行的战略不同,因此企业“走出去”的方式方法千姿百态,创造出了多种行之有效且独具特色的海外投资模式。建立海外营销渠道投资模式建立海外营销渠道投资模式,指的是我国一些企业进行海外投资的目的并不是…     

Electricity provision and industrial development: Evidence from India

I investigate the effect of electricity provision on industrialization using a panel of Indian states for 1965-1984. To address the endogeneity of investment in electrification, I use the introduction of a new agricultural technology intensive in irrigation (the Green Revolution) as a natural experiment. As electric pumpsets are used to provide farmers with cheap irrigation water, I use the uneven availability of groundwater at the start of the Green Revolution to predict divergence in the expansion of the electricity network and, ultimately, to quantify the effect of electrification on industrial outcomes. I present a series of tests to show that the electrification channel remains the most important one among alternative explanations that could link groundwater availability to industrialization directly or indirectly. Results show that an increase in one standard deviation in the measure of electrification is associated with an increase of around 14% in manufacturing output for a state at the mean of the distribution.     

Forecasting the US real house price index: Structural and non-structural models with and without fundamentals

We employ a 10-variable dynamic structural general equilibrium model to forecast the US real house price index as well as its downturn in 2006:Q2. We also examine various Bayesian and classical time-series models in our forecasting exercise to compare to the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, estimated using Bayesian methods. In addition to standard vector-autoregressive and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, we also include the information content of either 10 or 120 quarterly series in some models to capture the influence of fundamentals. We consider two approaches for including information from large data sets — extracting common factors (principle components) in factor-augmented vector autoregressive or Bayesian factor-augmented vector autoregressive models as well as Bayesian shrinkage in a large-scale Bayesian vector autoregressive model. We compare the out-of-sample forecast performance of the alternative models, using the average root mean squared error for the forecasts. We find that the small-scale Bayesian-shrinkage model (10 variables) outperforms the other models, including the large-scale Bayesian-shrinkage model (120 variables). In addition, when we use simple average forecast combinations, the combination forecast using the 10 best atheoretical models produces the minimum RMSEs compared to each of the individual models, followed closely by the combination forecast using the 10 atheoretical models and the DSGE model. Finally, we use each model to forecast the downturn point in 2006:Q2, using the estimated model through 2005:Q2. Only the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model actually forecasts a downturn with any accuracy, suggesting that forward-looking microfounded dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models of the housing market may prove crucial in forecasting turning points.     

Estimation and testing of alternative production function models

The paper deals with four different decision models for a firm operating with a constant elasticity of substitution production function. The assumptions underlying the different models and their consequences for estimation are carefully specified. Maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters are obtained of the full four-equation models, using data pertaining to the Dutch manufacturing sector. Finally likelihood ratio test procedures are developed in order to determine whether one or more of the decision models can be rejected on the basis of this data.     

中国宏观经济总量的实时预报与短期预测——基于混频数据预测模型的实证研究

季度GDP的走势与波动不仅会影响政府的财政收支、企业的盈利和财务状况,甚至还会影响家庭和个人的收入与支出,是宏观经济总量预报、预测与分析的重中之重。传统的宏观经济总量预测模型是基于同频数据进行的,高频和超高频数据必需处理为低频数据,这不仅忽略了高频数据信息的变化,还影响了模型预报和预测的及时性,降低了模型的预测精度。本文将混合数据抽样模型(MIDAS)用于中国季度GDP的预报和预测,实证研究表明,出口是造成我国金融危机时期经济增长减速的主要因素,MIDAS模型在中国宏观经济总量的短期预测方面具有精确性的比较优势,在实时预报方面具有显著的可行性和时效性。     

A comparison of empirical models used to infer the willingness to pay in contingent valuation

The essence of the contingent valuation method consists of creating a hypothetical market where respondents are asked about their willingness to pay (WTP) for a non-market good. Different empirical models can be formulated to estimate the expected WTP of a sample of respondents and, then, through aggregation, the social valuation of the good is inferred.This paper outlines the relevance of the distributional assumptions when estimating mean WTP. Several parametric and non-parametric methods are discussed and applied to calculate the existence value of a natural space. Results show that WTP is extremely sensitive to the empirical model used.First version received: November 2002 / Final version received: January 2004     

Further evidence of the determinants of industrial research and development using single and simultaneous equation models

This paper provides empirical evidence in favor of the Schumpeterian hypothesis using single equation models. A simultaneous equation model is then developed which examines the interaction of R & D, growth and profitability.