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1.
Traditional empirical land use change models generally assume one average land use decision-maker. Multi-Agent System (MAS) models, on the other hand, acknowledge existence of different types of agents, but their poor empirical embedding remains a serious handicap. This paper demonstrates how agent information can also be incorporated into empirical, biophysical land use models.  相似文献   

2.
使用土地利用景观图形数据,依据其土地利用的景观特征指数,从斑块尺度、景观尺度上对丹东市的土地利用景观格局进行分析,并研究土地利用类型、结构以及所形成的景观格局对生态环境的影响。结果表明:(1)丹东市面积最大的是林地景观、也是分布最广并且连续性最强的一种基质景观,其面积比例为65.08%,斑块个数所占比例约为32.89%,平均斑块面积为4.56km2/个,斑块的分离度只是0.03,旱地面积比例也较大,为22.34%,水田、草地、水域、城乡用地比例不相上下,依次为:4.75%、2.00%、2.63%、2.85%。(2)丹东市中部、北部基本都是大片森林覆盖的,山脊则都以旱地为主,水田主要分布在南部沿海,滩涂、沼泽地景观相对较少。(3)与周围沿海地区数据比较,丹东市景观斑块类型的平均斑块的面积与生态环境指数间呈正相关,而景观破碎化指数与生态环境指数间呈明显负相关。  相似文献   

3.
大庆市土地利用/土地覆盖景观格局研究   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
利用遥感影像处理系统,对大庆市1978~2001年5个时段的TM影像进行处理,得到大庆市土地利用图;据图进行土地利用/土地覆盖景观格局分析,利用GIS软件计算出大庆市区土地利用/土地覆盖的破碎化、斑块形状、分离度、优势度、均匀性及多样性等景观指数,并对大庆市区土地利用/土地覆盖进行自相关分析;结果表明,作为一个典型的石油型城市,大庆市景观格局有其独特之处。  相似文献   

4.
Changes in land use and land tenure can influence both physical fragmentation and ownership fragmentation of landscapes, with implications for biodiversity. In this study, we evaluated changes in land use and land tenure in the Tijuana River Watershed, a region of high biodiversity and endemism, following the implementation of a new Agrarian Law which allowed for privatization and sales of communal land (ejidos) beginning in 1992. In order to understand changes in land use and cover, we constructed maps from aerial photographs and Aster images and measured changes between 1994 and 2005. In order to understand changes in land tenure, we collected data from Mexican government sources on ejido land size, ownership, and sales, and we conducted 55 structured interviews with ejidatarios in the watershed. Our results demonstrate that land-use/cover change between 1994 and 2005 was dominated by an increase in urban area and grasslands, and a decrease in coastal sage scrub, chaparral, and, to a lesser degree, agriculture. In particular, the conversion of coastal sage scrub has left a far more fragmented landscape than existed in 1994. In addition, most of the ejidos in the watershed, as well as individuals interviewed, had participated in some stage of the land certification and titling process allowed by the new Agrarian Law, resulting in substantial changes in land tenure. However, land tenure security appeared to play a larger role than a desire to sell land and, contrary to studies from other regions, full title to the land was obtained in a range of urban and rural settings, rather than primarily on land closest to urban zones. Our results suggest that past predictions regarding future urban growth and fragmentation of native vegetation in the region have proven accurate and highlights regions of change that merit further study.  相似文献   

5.
为讨论西北农林科技大学校园景观布局的优劣,对今后规划工作提供依据,以CAD校园平面图和高清遥感影像为基础资料,采用独创性的景观划分法,利用ArcMap获取南北校区校园土地利用与景观格局的空间分布,并运用各类景观指标,对景观格局进行定量分析。结果表明:南校区各景观的破碎度均大于北校,而优势度偏低;就全校范围来看,多样性、均匀度、优势度最大的分别为生活景观(1.858)、绿地景观(0.97)、娱乐景观(0.617),娱乐景观的均匀度最低,绿地景观的优势度最小;北校区的建筑设施(包括教学、生活、娱乐、附属设施)对景观的支配作用较大,南校区各景观受人为因素影响较大。简而言之,全校景观空间格局分布合理,功能区划协调统一。  相似文献   

6.
This article explores the issues that arise when land use management organizations change their previous ways of relating to the public. I introduce an analytic framework for evaluating organizational changes that are grounded in participatory planning and decision making. Using a case study of a recent planning initiative of the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, I examine dynamics of trust, civic capacities, personal demands, history of working relationships, and interest in the issue at hand. Though preliminary, the conclusions drawn from this research illustrate how these dynamics may influence the success of participatory planning that reflects organizational change.  相似文献   

7.
The Rio Mannu River Basin (Sardinia, Italy) is undergoing a process of agricultural intensification. Like many Mediterranean areas, this basin is characterized by water shortages and diffuse pollution from agricultural sources. Hence the objective of this study was to develop possible land use and land management scenarios that could constitute an alternative to the current watershed management. Several land use and land management scenarios were formulated and analyzed with local stakeholders, and two were selected and simulated as realistic in consideration of the socio-economical aspects of the study area. Scenario 1 involves agricultural practices that include a reduction in fertilizer use to meet the Water Framework Directive requirements for “good” status of water bodies. Scenario 2 introduces rapeseed cultivation, replacing durum wheat in a small area, to investigate the impact of biofuel plant cultivation on water quality. Each option was assessed by considering the effects on water quality, crop yields and economic benefits. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was applied to simulate hydrological processes and evaluate current and future nutrient loads. This model requires adequate streamflow data for calibration and validation. However, as is the case for many Mediterranean basins, insufficient data were available. Therefore, a methodology was developed and tested to calibrate hydrological processes based on the transposition of a parameter set from a gauged catchment located in the same region. This study suggests that a sound use of fertilizers could substantially reduce the amount of nutrients flowing into surface waters, although the effects of such a policy on crop yield and farm income would be negative in some cases. Moreover, the results clearly predict that the replacement of durum wheat with rapeseed (a biofuel crop), could offer a margin of profit, but would have a negative impact on water quality due to increased nutrient losses. Consequently, this option is unsuitable for this area. Furthermore, it can be inferred from these results that the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources may have a negative impact on the objectives of the EU Water Framework Directive. Clearly, this process needs to be regulated, taking into account environmental and socio-economical aspects.  相似文献   

8.
The relationship between society, land and landscape is deeply complex. Attitudes are reflected in behaviour, notably patterns of consumption through recreational activity, as well as in expressed preferences. Society attaches great importance to land. A large proportion of the population engages directly with it, through gardening and involvement in the management of allotments, community gardens and other public spaces. There is increasing evidence of the benefits of such engagement for individuals and communities. Society's attitudes and preferences have traditionally been dominated by expert or professional views, which have evolved over time and now place emphasis on everyday as well as special landscapes, and on urban greenspace and green infrastructure as much as on rural landscapes. The general public also seems to value the countryside as well as parks and green spaces nearer to home. Public attitudes are shaped by a number of different factors. Age, social and economic status, ethnic origin, familiarity, place of upbringing and residence, particularly whether urban or rural, are especially significant. Perhaps most important are environmental value orientations. At present, society seems to be polarised. At one extreme are older, more affluent, better educated, more environmentally aware people, often in social grades AB, who are often the most active users of the countryside and greenspaces. At the other extreme are younger age groups, ethnic minorities, and those who are in the DE social grades, who are often much less engaged. These groups have very different values and attitudes. But most people need to access and enjoy different types of landscape at different times and for different purposes, accessing what has been called a ‘portfolio of places’ that is particular to each person. It is by no means clear how the various factors that influence people's attitudes and preferences will play out in the future. Society may continue to become more detached from nature and landscape, and less caring about its future. Or there could be a rekindling of society's need to engage with the land and an increased desire to ensure that all sectors of society can benefit from green spaces and rural landscapes. This is likely to require interventions through education and campaigns to change attitudes and behaviour. Whether such initiatives can be effective in the face of competing drivers of attitudinal and behavioural change and over what timescale, may well determine how society's relationships with land and landscape evolve over the next 50 years.  相似文献   

9.
The paper reviews recent developments in the incorporation of real-world spatial issues into the economic appraisal of land use change. The opening discussion introduces non-economists to the concepts underpinning the approach. The remainder of the paper uses a case study approach (concerning potential conversions from agriculture into multi-purpose woodland) to illustrate the quantification and valuation of land use change. The application of geographical information system (GIS) routines allows spatial complexity to be incorporated within the analysis. Key concepts are introduced such as making allowance for subsidies, the marginal value concept, and the valuation of non-market externalities such as carbon storage of open-access recreation. The case study also shows that, if issues such as spatial variation and externalities are ignored, sole reliance upon market prices can lead to perverse outcomes which are actually to the detriment of society.  相似文献   

10.
In Brazil, market-based instruments focusing on land use dimensions are increasingly promoted as a means to make public environmental policies effective. Landowners and farmers call for more flexible regulations and economic incentives to adopt ecologically sound practices, while public agencies and conservation NGOs seek new ways of financing and legitimising legal standards. Market-based instruments are considered by these actors as having the potential to both achieve their own goals and conciliate all interests. As a result, legal frameworks (including cap-and-trade systems, biodiversity offsetting and payments for ecosystem services) are being designed which allow to exchange land use rights and obligations. Under a sociolegal approach, this article provides an overview of such instruments. It shows to what extent they may entail a reconfiguration of the burden sharing and the priority setting of nature conservation. Depending on how actors use legal standards, their responsibilities may be eased and the level of conservation may be lowered, both facts that raise significant controversy.  相似文献   

11.
崇明东部土地利用变化及景观格局分析   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
本文选择崇明东部为研究区域,利用GIS和RS技术对1988、1997年和2005年卫片和航片进行了提取、分类和分析,并计算了景观格局指数,分析了近20年来土地利用及景观格局变化.结果表明:耕地基本没有变化,河流水体、农村居民点等不断增加,潮滩大大减少,城镇发展缓慢,随着人类活动程度的加剧,景观多样性稍有下降,均匀度上升...  相似文献   

12.
The article outlines the various ways of conducting land use surveys. A detailed historical account of the development from topographical survey is given and the various stages in the process are outlined and assessed. The three methods currently in use — ground survey, air survey and satellite survey — are carefully analysed. The ways in which recent rapid technological change has already affected the science of land use survey are emphasized, along with the various exciting possibilities currently under investigation; several limitations of even the most advanced methods are however pointed out, as no single method would appear totally satisfactory in isolation from all other available methods.  相似文献   

13.
●北京和天津相距不远,已经建成京沈、京哈、京津塘三条高速公路,加上天津机场和铁路,交通已经相当便利,但还有人在规划建设新的高速公路和高速铁路●各类规划缺乏统筹协调,交通、水利、林业、城市建设、生态环境建设、旅游等许多专项规划与土地利用总体规划不衔接,产业结构趋同、基础设施重复建设,无形中扩大了用地规模●市场机制是实现土地集约利用的基本途径,当前迫切需要完善现有市场规则,强化市场配置土地的基础性作用  相似文献   

14.
我国城市用地扩展与土地集约利用   总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5  
分析了我国城市用地增长弹性系数和城市用地扩展幂指数规律,发现土地利用效益偏低、扩张速度偏快是目前我国城市用地扩展的主要特征;分析了城市用地扩展的主要驱动力,发现固定资产投资和人口增长是城市扩展的主要动力,而第三产业发展有助于抑制城市用地扩张;认为城市扩展是我国现阶段经济发展的必然结果,但我国城市土地利用应变外廷扩展为外延扩展和内涵挖潜相结合的利用方式,提高土地利用的集约度与综合效益.  相似文献   

15.
Quadratic programming techniques were applied to household food consumption data in England and Wales to estimate likely changes in diet under healthy eating guidelines, and the consequences this would have on agriculture and land use in England and Wales. The first step entailed imposing nutrient restrictions on food consumption following dietary recommendations suggested by the UK Department of Health. The resulting diet was used, in a second step as a proxy for demand in agricultural commodities, to test the impact of such a scenario on food production and land use in England and Wales and the impacts of this on agricultural landscapes. Results of the diet optimisation indicated a large drop in consumption of foods rich in saturated fats and sugar, essentially cheese and sugar-based products, along with lesser cuts of fat and meat products. Conversely, consumption of fruit and vegetables, cereals, and flour would increase to meet dietary fibre recommendations. Such a shift in demand would dramatically affect production patterns: the financial net margin of England and Wales agriculture would rise, due to increased production of high market value and high economic margin crops. Some regions would, however, be negatively affected, mostly those dependent on beef cattle and sheep production that could not benefit from an increased demand for cereals and horticultural crops. The effects of these changes would also be felt in upstream industries, such as animal feed suppliers. While arable dominated landscapes would be little affected, pastoral landscapes would suffer through loss of grazing management and, possibly, land abandonment, especially in upland areas.  相似文献   

16.
以1992、1998、2004、2009年的金石滩地区土地利用数据为基础,运用GIS软件的叠置分析,空间分析对研究区土地变化时空分异研究。本文通过单一土地利用动态度和综合土地动态度分析研究区内图地类型变化的速度和趋势,同时将土地利用扩展强度指数带入分析土地利用规模的变化,以此探究其土地利用变化的驱动因素。研究表明,土地利用数量变化模式呈现耕地面积大量减少,建设用地迅速增加:1992-2013年各土地利用类型单一动态度中耕地和未利用地减少速度相对较快,分别为-4.36%和-4.37%;城乡建设用地增加最快,为21.37%,其次为交通水利用地,为17.99%;1998-2004年综合土地利用动态度最大,为3.63%,这期间土地利用变化最为迅速,旅游开发活动剧烈。扩展强度指数计算各土地类型得出,耕地的扩展强度指数最低,为-1.48,城乡建设用地的扩展强度指数最高,为1.42%。研究结果可信。  相似文献   

17.
The role of land tenure in agricultural development has been a subject of intensive research, particularly within the context of land and agrarian reform. The complexity of the world's major land tenure systems is well recognized and no attempt is made here to go beyond an overview as this paper limits itself to the impact of land tenure on land use in low income situations. Present land use is determined by a host of factors, of a physical/biological and socioeconomic nature. In applying land evaluation, the question it is necessary to ask is to what extent, when and where land tenure conditions act as a considerable constraining factor impeding a more optimal use of land resources. Even in what used to be low-population density areas (such as Sub-Saharan Africa) it appears that the frontier phase is becoming exhausted and the intensification of agriculture proceeds; it becomes imperative to examine land tenure in relation to land use implications. It is shown that so far a multi-disciplinary approach has often been lacking in treating land tenure and related issues.  相似文献   

18.
To identify appropriate interventions that support sustainable land use; a farm household modelling approach is applied to analyze micro-economic supply reactions to various policy measures. The modelling framework links agro-technical and economic data, and takes both production and consumption decisions into account, allowing land use and production technology adjustments in accordance with farm household objectives. Different types of farm households are distinguished on the basis of their resource endowments, savings coefficients and time discount rate. Actual and alternative (sustainable) cropping and livestock activities for different weather regimes are defined for southern Mali. The effects on sustainable land use and expected farm household welfare of adopting alternative technologies and modifying prices, transaction costs, access to credit and land taxes are demonstrated. Even with full information on sustainable technologies, strong policy interventions are required to halt soil degradation. Structural policies proved to be more effective than price policies to reduce soil degradation while maintaining positive income effects. When prices are determined endogenously, structural policy loses some effectiveness as an incentive for sustainable land use due to the effect of additional supply on local cereal and meat Prices.  相似文献   

19.
土地利用规划中土地利用空间结构和布局研究进展   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
土地利用空间结构和布局是土地利用规划工作中的关键所在,是决定土地利用规划是否科学合理的重要步骤;开展土地利用空间结构和布局优化研究有利于促进土地资源利用的集约高效,有利于新一轮的土地利用规划修编的编制和实施;综述了目前我国土地利用空间布局相关理论的研究进展,回顾了土地利用空间布局所采取的主要技术和手段,对我国土地利用空间结构和布局研究进行了展望;研究表明:我国土地利用空间布局理论研究有了长足进展,但还未形成严密的科学理论体系;在研究视角上,多注重耕地和基本农田保护,在“统筹兼顾”“以人为本”“理性发展”等方面应加强;在研究方法上,应加强现代数学模型与计算机空间模拟等方法在土地利用规划布局中的应用研究,加强参与式土地利用规划理论和方法研究,与传统的规划研究方法和手段相结合,形成客观、准确、科学的土地利用规划技术体系。  相似文献   

20.
城市化进程中土地持续利用评价指标体系研究   总被引:8,自引:0,他引:8  
研究目的:建立科学的指标体系,评价城市化进程中土地持续利用实现的程度.研究方法:文献资料法和演绎法.研究结果:城市化进程中土地持续利用的目标可归结为耕地保护、用地结构优化和土地生态优化,可具体从粮食安全、城市体系合理性、城镇用地规模合理性、城镇内部用地合理性以及土地生态系统等几方面进行评价指标体系的构建.研究结论:上述指标体系是科学评价城市化进程中土地持续利用实现程度的工具.  相似文献   

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