A Pilot Exploration of Random Period Duration in Experimental Financial Markets: A Treatment Variable?

This exploratory paper reports a pilot study of the impact of random period duration on the trading behaviour observed in experimental financial markets. Results reported in earlier experimental studies, many of which report a flurry of trade just prior to the end of a trading period, may have been influenced by knowledge of trading period duration. These exploratory findings suggest that the introduction of random period duration results in an increased volume of trade early in a period, which may then impinge upon the informational efficiency of the asset markets. These findings necessitate that future refinements to theoretical models of bid, ask and transaction price behaviour in double auctions explicitly address the influence of known period duration. However, no significant difference between the two markets is found with respect to allocational efficiency. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of liquidity and information on the mispricing of newly public firms

We test whether the mispricing of newly public firms is affected by liquidity and information during the quiet period, from the end of the quiet period until the lock-up expiration date, and post lock-up. Liquidity is affected by the underwriter’s stabilization efforts during the quiet period and the founder’s ability to sell shares in the post-lockup period. Based on a sample of winner and loser events for more than 2,600 newly public firms during 1992–2001, the degree of under-or overreaction is conditioned on the period within the aftermarket following the IPO. We attribute the results to different liquidity and information effects among the three periods.     

Globalization and business cycle transmission

The paper uses long-run GDP data for developed countries drawn from Maddison [Maddison, A. (2003). The world economy—Historical statistics. Paris: OECD Development Centre] to generate deviation cycles for the period from 1870 to 2001. The cyclical deviates are examined for their bilateral cross-correlation values in three separate periods, those of the first globalization wave (1870–1914), the period of the “bloc economy” (1915–1959) and for the period of the second globalization (1960–2001). Cluster analysis is applied and the McNemar test is used to test for the relative coherence of alternative groupings of countries in the three periods. The bloc economy period emerges as one that features some well-defined sub-global clusters, where the second globalization period does not, the first globalization period lying between the two in this respect. The second globalization period shows a generally higher level of cross-correlations and a lower variance than the other two periods. The features uncovered suggest that the second globalization period is indeed one that comprises a more inclusive world economy than ever before.     

The stability of the demand for fossil fuels by electric utilities

The view that the regional demand for fossil fuels by electric utilities in the United States is characterized by stable relationships is subjected to an objective statistical test. The test utilizes a statistic which equals the ratio of the sum of squared residuals of one period prediction from the k + 1 period to the rth period to the sum of squared residuals of one period prediction from the k + 1 to the Tth period, where k is the number of estimated coefficients in the model and T is the sample size. The results suggest for the period 1973 through 1978, that the fossil fuel demand functions in Region II and Region VIII and the coal demand function in Region X became unstable around 1977. For the other regions, the results indicate no appreciable (statistically significant) change in the relative importance of the underlying determinants of the demand for fossil fuels.     

天津城市更新改造的探索与实践

建城600年的天津,大规模的城市更新改造发生在近30年间,先后经历了更新赴阶段、危房改造阶段、制度创新阶段和战略提升阶段.其经验是:以科学发展观为指导,不断提高城市更新改造的科学性;坚持规划先行,充分发挥城市规划的先导与统筹作用;新区开发与老城改造并举,实行双向联动;开发与保护并重,确保历史文脉延续传承;注重改善低收群众住房问题,努力构建和谐社会.     

Current trends and future directions for the Canadian healthcare system

This paper outlines the structure of healthcare in Canada and describes trends in health expenditures. Particular attention is paid to trends in Canada's most populous province, Ontario. Three temporal episodes of health expenditure growth in Ontario are identified: 1980–91, a period of rapid growth; 1991–98, a period of restraint; and 1998-present, a period of expenditure resurgence. Health policy initiatives designed to enhance the efficient, effective and equitable access to healthcare services are briefly reviewed.     

Some results for the dynamic (s, S) inventory model *

Summary The periodic review, single item, stationary ( s, S ) inventory model is considered. There is a fixed lead time, a linear purchase cost, a fixed set-up cost, a holding and shortage cost function, a discount factor 0 < α≤ 1 and backlogging of unfilled demand. The solution for the total expected discounted cost for the finite period (s, S ) model is found. In addition the time dependent behaviour of the inventory process is found. Further a limit theorem is given, which relates the total expected cost for the finite period ( s, S ) model with no discounting to the average expected cost per period for the infinite period ( s, S ) model. As a by-product we obtain known results for the infinite period (s, S ) model.     

Does age structure forecast economic growth?

Increases in the proportion of the working age population can yield a “demographic dividend” that enhances the rate of economic growth. We estimate the parameters of an economic growth model using a cross section of countries over the period 1960 to 1980, and investigate whether the inclusion of age structure improves the model's forecasts for the period 1980 to 2000. We find that including the age structure improves the forecast, although there is evidence of parameter instability between periods with an unexplained growth slowdown in the second period. We use the model to generate growth forecasts for the period 2000 to 2020.     

Strategic Buying to Prevent Seller Exit

We consider a dynamic oligopoly model in which a seller may drop out of the market when demand for its product is insufficient in the first period. Buyers suffer some disutility if a seller exits the market and so their first‐period purchase decision not only depends on current period preferences and prices, but also on the potential effect that their behavior has on the probability of seller survival. Specifically, some buyers may choose to purchase from the seller with the lower survival probability even though they like the other seller's product better, a behavior that we call “strategic buying.” We analyze how the incidence of strategic buying depends on parameters and also the implications of the strategic buying motive for sellers' first‐period pricing decisions.     

Subprime lending and the housing bubble: Tail wags dog?

The cause of the “housing bubble” associated with the sharp rise and then drop in home prices over the period 1998–2008 has been the focus of significant policy and research attention. The dramatic increase in subprime lending during this period has been broadly blamed for these market dynamics. In this paper we empirically investigate the validity of this hypothesis vs. several other alternative explanations. A model of house price dynamics over the period 1998–2006 is specified and estimated using a cross-sectional time-series data base across 20 metropolitan areas over the period 1998–2006. Results suggest that prior to early 2004, economic fundamentals provide the primary explanation for house price dynamics. Subprime credit activity does not seem to have had much impact on subsequent house price returns at any time during the observation period, although there is strong evidence of a price-boosting effect by investor loans. However, we do find strong evidence that a credit regime shift took place in late 2003, as the GSE’s were displaced in the market by private issuers of new mortgage products. Market fundamentals became insignificant in affecting house price returns, and the price-momentum conditions characteristic of a “bubble” were created. Thus, rather than causing the run-up in house prices, the subprime market may well have been a joint product, along with house price increases, (i.e., the “tail”) of the changing institutional, political, and regulatory environment characteristic of the period after late 2003 (the “dog”).     

A profit-center game with incomplete information

Profit centers in a firm in multidivisional form agree in the ex ante stage upon a plan about their joint production and profit imputation. The plan is executed in the subsequent two periods of the interim stage: the setup period and the manufacturing period. In the setup period, each center has its private information, but a part of its information is revealed to the other centers through its action. Based on the information endogenously pooled this way, the centers take another round of actions in the manufacturing period. A core plan is defined as a Bayesian incentive-compatible plan of the grand coalition of profit centers, upon which no coalition can improve using its Bayesian incentive-compatible plan. A core plan is called full-information revealing if each center fully reveals its private information in the setup period. Three existence theorems for a full-information revealing core plan are established. The first two theorems impose alternative conditions on returns to scale: (1) the neoclassical convex technology, and (2) increasing returns to scale. In case (2), a stronger condition than Scarf's distributiveness is imposed on the total production set. The third theorem is based on a specific supplier-customer relationship among the divisions. Received: 13 October 1997 / Accepted: 26 July 1999     

Complexity as a constraint on firm expansion within and across industries

With this paper, we want to shed light on factors influencing a firm's rate of expansion. We argue that expansion is a complex task and complexity associated with expansion projects in one period can negatively impact rate of expansion in the following period. Moreover, we argue that firm portfolio complexity also slows down further expansion. Using longitudinal data on the expansion path of 91 German companies, we show that added product scope of expansion and degree of internationalization characterizing expansion in one period as well as level of product and international diversity have a significant impact on slowing down rate of expansion in the subsequent period. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Strategic inventory in capacitated supply chain procurement

We study the strategic role of inventory in a sequential two‐period procurement setting, where the supplier's capacity in the first period is limited and the retailer has the option to hold inventory. We compare the equilibrium under a dynamic contract, where the decisions are made at the beginning of each period, and a commitment contract, where the decisions for both periods are made at the beginning of the first period. We show that there is a critical capacity level below which the outcomes under both types of contracts are identical. When the first period capacity is above the critical level, the retailer holds inventory in equilibrium and the inventory is carried due to purely strategic reasons; as capacity increases, so does the strategic role of inventory. The supplier always prefers lower capacity than the retailer, and the difference between supplier‐optimal and supply‐chain optimal capacities, and the corresponding profits, can be significant. Finally, we find that the retailer's flexibility to hold inventory is not always good for the participants or for the channel. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Cross-border linkages among Asian closed-end funds

This study investigates the behavior of nine Asian closed-end country funds traded on the NYSE over the period 1990–2001. The results indicate that fund discounts follow a mean-reverting process and, furthermore, display various cross-border patterns of influence that are contingent on the period examined. Notably, for the overall period, the Korean Fund exhibits the strongest market leadership. However, in the period following the Asian financial crisis, movements in the Thai Fund's discount have the strongest influence on, and responsiveness from, the other country funds.     

Has bank consolidation in Korea lessened competition?

This paper examines market concentration and competition in the Korean commercial banking market for the period of 1992–2004. While market concentration decreased due to financial regulation before the Asian financial crisis, the Korean banking industry has become increasingly concentrated in the process of restructuring and consolidation since the crisis. Contrary to a growing concern over market power in Korean banking, this study finds that increased concentration has not lessened competition. The H statistic of the Panzar–Rosse model indicates that the Korean commercial banking market was monopolistically competitive during the pre-crisis period and the post-crisis period with temporary deviation to the level of perfect competition during the crisis period.     

Planned obsolescence and marketing strategy

By using a two‐period model of a durable goods monopolist, we investigate marketing activities that have an obsolescence effect on products already sold in the past period. We assume that the monopolist can stimulate consumer demand for second‐period products by marketing activities, and analyse not only the case where the level of marketing is determined in the second period, but also the case where it is determined in advance, namely, in the first period. It is shown that the equilibrium level of marketing becomes higher than the efficiency level not only in the former case, but also in the latter case if the obsolescence effect is not so large. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The role of debt and bankruptcy statutes in facilitating tacit collusion

Using a two‐period model this paper examines the quantity decisions of leveraged duopolists that are vulnerable to bankruptcy in the first period. When the firms have symmetric costs, a bankrupt firm reorganizes under Chapter 11. If a Chapter 11 firm experiences marginal cost relief, each firm produces a collusive output in period one in order to prevent its rival's financial demise. When the firms have asymmetric costs, the less efficient firm is liquidated under Chapter 7 upon bankruptcy. A predatory equilibrium exists, whereby the inefficient firm is driven from the market. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Planning horizon results for the dynamic warehouse location problem

In the last decade, a number of models for the dynamic facility location problem have been proposed. The various models contain differing assumptions regarding the revenues and costs realized in the opening, operation, and closure of a facility as well as considering which of the facility sites are candidates for acquisition or disposal at the beginning of a time period. Since the problem becomes extremely large for practical applications, much of the research has been directed toward developing efficient solution techniques. Most of the models and solutions assume that the facilities will be disposed of at the end of the time horizon since distant future conditions usually can't be forecasted with any reasonable degree of accuracy. The problem with this approach is that the “optimal” solution is optimal for only one hypothesized post horizon facility configuration and may become nonoptimal under a different configuration. Post-optimality analysis is needed to assure management that the “optimal” decision to open or close a facility at a given point in time won't prove to be “nonoptimal” when the planning horizon is extended or when design parameters in subsequent time periods change. If management has some guarantee that the decision to open or close a facility in a given time period won't change, it can safely direct attention to the accuracy of the design parameters within that time period.This paper proposes a mixed integer linear programming model to determine which of a finite set of warehouse sites will be operating in each time period of a finite planning horizon. The model is general in the sense that it can reflect a number of acquisition alternatives—purchase, lease or rent. The principal assumptions of the model are: a) Warehouses are assumed to have infinite capacity in meeting customer demand, b) In each time period, any non-operating warehouse is a candidate for becoming operational, and likewise any operating warehouse is a candidate for disposal, c) During a given time period, the fixed costs of becoming operational at a site are greater than the disposal value at that site to reflect the nonrecoverable costs involved in operating a warehouse. These costs are separate from the acquisition and liquidation values of the site. d) During a time period the operation of a warehouse incurs overhead and maintenance costs as well as a depreciation in the disposal value.To solve the model, it is first simplified and a partial optimal solution is obtained by the iterative examination by both lower and upper bounds on the savings realized if a site is opened in a given time period. An attempt is made to fix each warehouse open or closed in each time period. The bounds are based on the delta and omega tests proposed by Efroymson and Ray (1966) and Khumawala (1972) with adjustment for changes in the value of the warehouse between the beginning and end of a time period. A complete optimal solution is obtained by solving the reduced model with Benders' decomposition procedure. The optimal solution is then tested to determine which time periods contain “tentative” decisions that may be affected by post horizon data by analyzing the relationship between the lower (or upper) bounds used in the model simplification time period. If the warehouse decisions made in a time period satisfy these relationships and are thus unaffected by data changes in subsequent time periods, then the decisions made in earlier time periods will also be unaffected by future changes.     

The generation gap and optimal economic growth

Among the problems confronting those who aspire to the development of a realistic and practicable optimal growth theory is that the human population is not homogeneous with respect to age. Those who are relatively young are apt to prefer a different pattern of capital accumulation from that preferred by those who are relatively old. This paper proposes a tentative solution to this particular problem. Essentially the proposal is that society should remain with what is an optimal private plan of an individual who is at the median age of the population at the beginning of the planning period, for one planning period, after which it revises the plan to switch to the optimal private plan of another individual (one planning period younger than the first) who is at the median age at the commencement of the new planning period. Thus the optimal social plan consists of a succession of one planning period implementations of the first periods of the optimal private plans of individuals who are at the median age at that time period. An example of the application of the method is given. An important sidelight of the paper is a critique of standard constant-rate exponential discounting in social planning of optimal capital accumulation, and the proposal that it be replaced by “mortality discounting.”     

Mortality Forecasting and Trend Shifts: an Application of the Lee–Carter Model to Swedish Mortality Data*

In this paper we examine how the Lee–Carter model fares with Swedish data for the period 1901–2001 and for segments of this period. We have choosen to censor ages less than age 40 as those ages only are of marginal interest to the forecast. At age 40 some 98 to 99 percent of the birth cohorts are survivors. In the study we only consider the unweighted K¹ estimates. The Lee–Carter model provides very good fits to the data. When splitting up the base period there seems to be an interaction beween the age and time components of the model. In order to deal with the different phases of falling mortality for males and females possibly one should choose the past 25 years as a base in the model. Selecting the base period is however a judgmental issue depending on the main focus of the forecast. Is it long‐term, short‐term or, as in Sweden, a combination of both.?