Financial intermediation,consumption dynamics,and business cycles

The recent financial crisis highlighted the need to deepen our understanding of the impact of the financial intermediation sector on the real economy. We examine the quantitative implications of financial intermediation and firm's financing frictions in explaining the observed cyclical properties of both real and financial variables. We find that a modified version of the financial intermediation framework of Gertler and Karadi (2011) augmented with financing frictions in production does a good job in matching the unconditional moments of financial fluctuations without compromising key real co-movements. Our results are relevant for macro-prudential policy analysis as they underscore the importance of carefully identifying the sources of aggregate fluctuations in models in which financial intermediaries and financial frictions play a non-trivial role.     

Financial intermediation with credit constrained agents

This paper studies the effects of financial intermediation on aggregate levels and the distribution of resources in an economy with credit-constrained heterogeneous agents and occupational choice. Whether an agent becomes an entrepreneur depends on a realized entrepreneurial ability and accumulated assets needed to finance a business project with uncertain returns. I compare a steady state of an economy with financial intermediation to an economy in which entrepreneurs must finance their projects only from their savings. The simulated economy with financial intermediation matches well the US data on the distribution of occupations and resources. The steady state welfare and efficiency gains from financial intermediation are large.     

The sources of contagion risk in a banking sector with foreign ownership

Foreign-dominated banking sectors, such as those prevalent in Central and Eastern Europe, are susceptible to two major sources of systemic risk: (i) linkages between local banks and (ii) linkages between a foreign parent bank and its local subsidiary. During and after the global financial crisis, the second source of risk has been stressed by local regulators. Using a nonparametric method based on extreme value theory, we analyze interdependencies in downward risk in the banking sectors of the Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia, and Turkey during 1994–2013. We find that the risk of contagion from a foreign parent bank to its local subsidiary is substantially smaller than the risk between two local banks.     

Economic development and financial depth in a model with costly financial intermediation

According to Gurley and Shaw, economic development typically is accompanied by a transition from self-financed to intermediated investment activity. In their account, economic growth stimulates financial market development, and financial market development is a strong contributing factor in enhancing real growth. We model the co-evolution of the real and financial sectors during the growth process. To do so, we embed a role for liquidity provision into a conventional neoclassical growth model. Following Baumol and Tobin, we also introduce a fixed cost associated with “trips to the bank”. We describe conditions under which the development of a financial system may or may not proceed smoothly. When it does not, development traps are observed. We also discuss policy interventions that may reduce the potential for development traps to arise.     

Can good governance lower bank intermediation costs?

ABSTRACT

This paper argues that better governance practices can reduce the costs, risks and uncertainty of financial intermediation. Our sample covers 100 high-, middle- and low-income countries during 1996 to 2015. Using panel regressions accounting for endogeneity and cross-sectional dependance, we find that net interest margins of banks are lower if various governance indicators are better. Governance indicators range from comprehensive indices on the rule of law to more narrow indicators like ethics of private firms. The global financial crisis seems not to have had a strong impact except via credit risk. Finally, we estimate that potential annual savings from lower net interest margins could average almost 0,3 percent of GDP, had the governance indicators been at the top decile. These simulations lend credence to the intuition that better governance practices should reduce costs, risks and uncertainty.     

Asymmetric information, financial intermediation, and business cycles

Summary. This incorporates a debt contracting problem with asymmetric information into a standard monetary business cycle model. The model incorporates a limited participation assumption in order to induce a liquidity effect of monetary shocks and propagate monetary disturbances. The model economy shows that a positive money supply shock generates a decrease in nominal interest rates and an increase in output level. Asymmetric information amplifies the response of capital to the money supply shock, but does not propagate them in other ways. When the monetary shock is an innovation in reserve requirements, it induces a persistent response of the economy. Received: March 20, 1998; revised version: 1 April 1998     

Growth,profits and foreign ownership in the Brazilian banking industry

The deregulation of the financial markets and their progressive globalization has favoured the internationalization of banking. Moreover, during the international financial crisis, the presence of foreign banks has increased in countries experiencing faster economic growth, such as Brazil. In this context, the aim of this study is to analyze the growth and profitability of the financial institutions in Brazil, taking into account the possible non-linearity of the relationship, the differences between Brazilian and foreign institutions and the effect of the crisis. Our results indicate that the entry of foreign institutions has a direct effect on the Brazilian banking industry.     

Financial intermediation and fragility: the role of the periphery

A peculiar feature of the present international economy is that the leading ‘hegemonic’ country, USA, has a large and mounting external deficit which it finances by issuing debt in its own currency. The US can be seen to be at the apex of a pattern of triangular payments recycling the surpluses of creditor countries to debtor countries in the periphery. The paper shows, within a stock‐flow‐consistent framework, how capital flight from debtor periphery countries, by precipitating a shift from assets denominated in domestic currency to those denominated in dollars, acts like a safety valve for the international monetary system.     

中国金融脱媒度量及国际比较

本文采用中介化比率和证券化比率两套指标体系从银行、金融部门两个层次以及资产和负债两个方向度量了1978-2007年中国的金融脱媒,并与美国、日本同期的金融脱媒指标进行了比较。结果表明:(1)我国银行业的金融脱媒将贯穿于金融市场发展的整个过程中;(2)中国金融部门的资产方很可能会出现一个中介化比例先下降,之后回调上升的过程,但回调到什么点是有待检验的问题;(3)我国非银行金融机构在吸纳资金、提供资金两方面都的作用都不明显,但考虑到我国在金融市场发展的阶梯上仍处于较低的阶段,未来我国非银行金融机构在吸纳经济中的盈余资金上可能会具有较大的潜力。     

The transmission of financial shocks in an estimated DSGE model with housing and banking

We develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with housing and banking to study the transmission of financial shocks between the financial and real sectors. A deterioration in the bank's balance sheet induced by financial shocks could have amplified and persistent impacts on real activities. The amplification of the shocks are originated from financial frictions tied to households and banks. We find that a disruption in bank net worth initiated by capital quality shocks generates a decline in household loans, house prices and output. Bank liquidity shocks also have negative effects on these variables. Housing preference shocks could generate a positive comovement between house prices and output. All these findings are qualitatively consistent with empirical evidence, suggesting that these financial shocks are critical to the dynamics of house prices and other macroeconomic variables.     

Financial intermediation and growth: causality and causes without outliers

In a seminal paper, Levine et al. (J Monet Econ 46:31–77, 2000) provide cross-sectional evidence showing that financial development has positive average impact on long-run growth, using a sample of 71 countries. We argue that the evidence is sensitive to the presence of outliers.

Trade openness,internet finance development and banking sector development in China

This paper investigates the impact of trade openness on Internet finance development in China. Using a unique panel data set for 29 Chinese provinces, we find that trade openness has a positive impact on Internet finance development and is a leading indicator of Internet finance development. Further analyses show that higher trade openness is associated with faster Internet finance development in wealthier provinces. Moreover, we investigate the effect of Internet finance development on the banking sector development. The empirical results suggest that Internet finance development has a positive effect on the banking sector size and efficiency.     

金融发展与经济增长:从动员性扩张向市场配置的转变

本报告在回顾中国金融体制结构与经济增长特征的基础上,运用干中学的信用扩张模型,结合开放经济中平衡信贷规模扩张与通货膨胀机制的探讨,揭示出中国高速经济增长中的货币、金融政策的特定制度安排。本报告认为,这样的制度安排可以有效解释中国转轨时期的高增长和低通胀,同时指出该制度作用下所存在的成本和风险,并提出从动员型金融向市场配置型金融转型的相应对策。     

The size distribution of the banking sector and the effects of monetary policy

In recent years, the industrial organization of the banking system has received a large amount of attention. In particular, it is generally viewed that the size distribution of the banking sector has changed where it is dominated by a small number of large institutions. In this paper, we develop a model of imperfectly competitive banks that differ in terms of the size of their deposit base. Such differences are important for aggregate credit market activity and the effects of monetary policy. Notably, we explain how the optimal size distribution of the banking system involves trade-offs from distortions in credit markets due to imperfect competition across banking markets. Second, the effects of monetary policy on credit market activity are weaker in an economy dominated by a small number of large banks. Empirical analysis examining the role of concentration among the current members of the European Monetary Union is consistent with the predictions of the model.     

银行业金融产品创新：现状、效应与策略

对于本次危机的根源,国内外学者比较一致的观点是,金融创新过度而缺乏相应的风险防范机制。在中国金融业全面开放创新的背景下,如何借鉴危机前后国外银行业金融创新的经验和教训,促进中国银行业金融创新更好、更快的发展,具有重要的理论和实践意义。本文首先基于利率、汇率市场化进程加快,城镇居民收入水平提高,金融脱媒以及银行资本约束等动因视角详细分析了我国银行业金融产品创新的现状,在此基础上,对我国银行业金融创新的积极效应进行分析,如缓解期限错配现象、加强风险管理能力,提高资本充足率、加强市场约束,增加中间业务收入,推动利率和汇率市场化等。最后,本文提出了进一步提升我国银行业金融产品创新的策略,其中包括：金融创新必须注重风险防范、实施混业经营,促进金融创新、实施金融创新由外力推动向内部驱动转变等。     

中国银行业的个人金融服务

本文对我国商业银行开展个人金融服务的历程进行了一个回顾,剖析了个人金融服务的概念,总结了个人金融产品的特点为：无形性、非标准化、生产与消费同时进行以及易逝性。中国银行业的个人金融服务存在环境的缺憾和内部管理的缺憾,必须借助外部动力、内部动力以及依靠客户策略和产品策略来加快个人金融服务。     

The impact of formal financial inclusion on informal financial intermediation and cash preference: evidence from Africa

This paper examines the effect of formal financial intermediation (inclusion) on informal financial intermediation and the use of cash for economic activities. Using data from the Global Findex 2014, we examine whether the use of formal financial intermediaries reduces cash preference and the use of informal financial intermediaries. Our empirical results show that informal financial intermediation is positively associated with formal financial inclusion. This indicates that the relationship between informal and formal financial intermediation is complementary rather than a trade-off, which demonstrates the importance of informal finance plays in the financial system of Africa. Moreover, the use of formal financial intermediaries significantly reduces the preference for holding cash, implying that a robust financial system infrastructure has the potential of mobilizing excess liquidity in the informal economy of Africa for growth and development.     

Rethinking banking. Debt discounting and the making of modern money as liquidity

The article radically challenges the conventional view of modern banking as financial intermediation and rejects the mutually related notion, firmly entrenched in both the mainstream and alternative imaginary, of fractional reserve banking. By contrast, it argues that modern banks are peculiar financiers which, far from banking other people's money, are originally and primarily involved with making money by creating a most fundamental institution of capitalism: liquidity. Crucially, central to the bank-engendered creation of liquidity is a negotiation of value that does not involve any formal lending of cash by a creditor – in fact, it does not require a creditor at all. Instead, it relies on a quid pro quo of debts performed by means of discounting whereby a regime of fluid property relations of mutual indebtedness, commonly known as debt finance, is established. In this regime of liquidity, money is constructed as entirely a debtors’ money: it is the outcome of a process of monetisation of bank debts entangled with a capitalisation of other people's debts.     

Sudden stops, banking crises and investment collapses in emerging markets

We evaluate whether financial openness leaves emerging market economies vulnerable to the adverse effects of capital reversals (“sudden stops”) on domestic investment. We investigate this claim in a broad sample of emerging markets during the period 1976–2002. If the banking sector does not experience a systemic crisis, sudden stop events fail to have a significant impact on investment. Bank crises, on the other hand, have a significant negative effect on investment even in the absence of a contemporaneous sudden stop crisis. We also find that openness to capital flows worsens the adverse impact of banking crises on investment. Our results provide statistical support for the policy view that a strong banking sector which can withstand the negative fallout of capital flight is essential for countries that open their economies to international financial flows.     

金融结构、银行发展与经济增长

虽然关于金融发展与经济增长关系的研究已经著作颇丰,但金融结构和长期的经济增长之间是否存在相关关系,以及这种关系是通过何种机制实现的,却一直缺乏深入研究。通过实证分析,我们发现,金融结构的差异并不能有效地解释不同国家之间的经济增长差异。而进一步的分解分析还表明,在金融体系的内部,银行信贷对经济增长的作用要明显强于市场渠道,其基本的实现机制是:银行的发展增强了私人部门信贷的可获得性,同时银行具有事实上比股市更为重要的融资地位,从而在长期的经济增长中扮演了更为重要的角色。