GMM estimation of a structural demand model for yogurt and the effects of the introduction of new brands

The demand structure for yogurt is assumed to be properly described by a one level nested logit model that is applied to aggregate market data. Given the presence of endogenous regressors, suitably lagged endogenous variables (Arellano and Bover in J Econom 68:29–51, 1995; Blundell and Bond in J Econom 87:115–143, 1998) are proposed as instrumental variables. The validity of this set of instruments is discussed and price elasticities and marginal costs are recovered from the demand estimates. Total welfare gains associated to the introduction of two new brands by the same manufacturer are finally computed. Prices and profits decreased and total welfare increased.     

中国外贸顺差的人口因素影响——基于动态GMM法的实证分析

本文运用Arellano和Bond首创的动态面板数据方法考察了人口年龄结构和人口流动对中国贸易收支的影响。结果表明,差分广义矩法估计所采用的工具变量表现良好,差分方程得到的残差服从AR(1)过程,过度识别条件成立。人口抚育负担的降低、人口的跨地区跨行业流动对贸易顺差有着积极显著的影响。然而,由于劳动力转移方式的差异,不同时间区段的子样本回归结果之间不尽相同。     

要素价格与中国制造业出口技术结构——基于省级动态面板数据的系统GMM估计

文章基于2002-2008年省级面板数据,运用系统广义矩(System GMM)估计法从国家和地区两个层面就劳动力、资本和原材料等要素价格上涨对制造业出口技术结构的影响进行了实证检验。研究结果表明,要素价格上涨在国家层面上对出口技术结构表现出显著的"倒逼"效应,即要素价格上涨有利于我国对外贸易增长方式的转变,但要素价格上涨对我国东、中、西部地区出口技术结构升级的影响不同。从动态视角看,要素价格上涨所体现出的"倒逼"效应越来越小,而其表现出来的"倒退"效应越来越明显,即要素价格上涨越来越成为企业本身发展的成本负担。     

Monetary and fiscal policy interactions: Evidence from emerging European economies

This paper examines the interactions between fiscal and monetary policy for some former transition, emerging European economies over the 1995Q1–2010Q4 period by using a Markov regime-switching model. We consider the monetary policy rule proposed by Taylor (1993) and the fiscal policy rule suggested by Davig and Leeper (2007) in accounting for monetary and fiscal policy interactions. Empirical results suggest that monetary and fiscal policy rules exhibit switching properties between active and passive regimes and all countries followed both active and passive monetary policies. As for fiscal policy, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, and Slovenia seem to have alternated between active and passive fiscal regimes while fiscal policies of Poland and the Slovak Republic can be characterized by a single fiscal regime. Although the policy mix and the interactions between monetary and fiscal policy point a diverse picture in our sample countries, the monetary policy seems to be passive in all countries after 2000. This finding is consistent with the constraints imposed by European Union enlargement on monetary policy.     

基于新疆经济增长的财政支出最优规模估算

财政支出规模反映了政府对经济的干预程度,然而财政在支出过程中有个量的把握,即占GDP的比重存在一个最优值。在最优值以内,财政部门为私人企业提供公共产品以及弥补外部性等,提高财政支出能够提高经济增长率,当财政支出超过这个最优值时,税收的扭曲作用会不断加强,增加财政支出对经济增长起阻碍作用。将财政支出纳入生产函数模型中,通过实证分析,估算出新疆的最优财政支出规模。     

System analysis and path choice for modem agricultural development： a case study of Suzhou

From the view of system theory, modern agriculture in a region embodies elements conformity, structure optimization, multi-functionality and sustainable development. This paper first expounds on the relationship among agricultural elements, structure, function and development theoretically, compartmentalizes agriculture types based on human-land elements matching, and depicts the development path of agricultural multi-functionality. it shows that the matching of human-land elements is a key to agricultural types, and the multi-functionality is an indication of agricultural development stages. At last, as a case study of Suzhou in eastern coastal area, the paper analyzes the evolvement situation and developing mechanism and some typical models of modern agriculture which suit to agriculture system evolvement. The results .show that in Suzhou the agriculture productivity, has improved greatly; And along with the agriculture structure optimizing, agriculture function has translated from ＂production ＂ to ＂non- production and production ＂. With simulation of agricultural trend in Suzhou, it is .found that Suzhou has a LP- dependence （labor productivity） on agricultural element, so Suzhou will has much more potential in land productivity. Based on the above analysis on agricultural system, some typical patterns on modern agriculture in Suzhou are brought up, such as export-oriented agriculture, enterprises-leading agriculture, science and technology, parks agriculture, stereoseopic agriculture, and tourism and sightseeing agriculture.     

管理体制与中国开发区经济发展效率增长——基于Malmquist指数和GMM的实证分析

文章采用Malmquist生产率指数对2001-2008年30个国家级经济技术开发区的经济发展效率增长进行了测算,并采用广义矩估计对其影响因素进行了实证分析,重点考察了不同管理体制对开发区效率增长影响的差异。结果显示:开发区的经济发展效率整体上处于逐渐改善的过程,东部地区开发区的效率改善速度比较稳定,而西部地区开发区因缺少持续促进因素而效率变化波动很大;政区合一型管理体制对开发区经济发展效率的改善表现出积极影响,对外贸易、投资率、产业结构、政府干预以及科技含量等因素均有利于开发区效率的提高,政府规模的扩大则对其效率增长产生了负向效应;科技含量和政府规模对两类开发区的效率增长分别具有显著的积极影响和负向效应,对外贸易对政区合一型开发区的效率增长具有显著的正向影响而对管委会型开发区的影响并不显著。     

东北亚国家出口多样化与经济增长的关系——基于动态面板数据的系统GMM估计

利用1996—2010年东北亚国家的贸易数据,验证了出口多样化与人均GDP之间的关系,并采用系统广义矩方法建立动态面板数据模型,估计了出口多样化对经济增长的贡献。结果表明:就东北亚单个国家而言,出口多样化与人均GDP之间呈U型变动关系,但就东北亚整体而言,这种U型关系并不明显;从东北亚国家的经验来看,出口多样化对经济增长具有积极作用;目前我国出口正处于从多样化向集中化转变的上升阶段,尚未达到U型曲线的拐点。     

How elections affect fiscal policy and growth: revisiting the mechanism

This paper reconsiders the popular result that the lower is the probability of reelection, the greater is the incentive of incumbent politicians to choose short-sighted, inefficient policies. The set-up is a general equilibrium model of economic growth, in which fiscal policy is endogenously chosen under electoral uncertainty. Political parties can value possible economic benefits differently depending on whether they are in or out of power, and—by contrast with the literature—the relevant preference coefficient is a choice variable rather than an exogenous taste parameter. The main result is that, when political parties choose both economic policy instruments and preference coefficients, the fundamental reason for short-sighted policy is the extra rents from being in power per se.     

Study on agricultural structure and non-point source pollution： a case in Dapu Town of Yixing City

The water body of Taihu Lake has been eutrophicated because of area-source pollution. 83% of the total nitrogen and 84% of the total phosphorus of the pollutant that have washed into Taihu Lake originated from the fertilizer of crop land, rural animal husbandry and living sewage and rubbish in rural area. The goal of adjusting agricultural structure is to improve agricultural development, and to increase the peasants＇ income by planting non-grain crop, centralizing animal husbandry, and intensifying aquaculture, etc. It is necessary to research on the influences of agriculture industrial structure on area-source pollution. This paper studies a case of Dapu Town in Yixing City, which is a typical drainage place beside Taihu Lake. On the basis of the analysis on the status quo of area-source pollution and agriculture industrial structure in Dapu Town, the conflicts between them are discussed. Non-grain crop production with a great deal of fertilizer and developing aquaculture with a great deal of organic pollutant, which are directly discharged, make area-source pollution more serious and accelerate the eutrophication in Taihu Lake. This paper suggests taking corresponding technological measures and policies, which have been tested in Dapu Town and demonstrated in Taih, Lake area.     

Ecological footprint analysis on the traditional rice-fish agricultural area： a case study of Qingtian County, Zhejiang Province, China

Qingtian County of Zhejiang Province, China has maintained the traditional rice-fish agriculture for about 2,000 years and formed exceptional cultural heritage based on this kind of production mode, so it was ed by FAO as a pilot site for the rice-fish agricultural heritage systems in 2005. This research has applied the indicators of ecological footprint and biocapacity to monitor the environmental conditions of Qingtian County, aiming to find the impact that the traditional agricultural production mode and the local inhabitants lifestyle have placed on the local environmental conditions as well as the role they have played in maintaining ecological balance, cultural inheritance and regional sustainable development. Results show that Qingtian County is characterized by a nearly breakeven total ecological balance, as opposed to Zhejiang Province, the world and other agricultural regions. However, compared with another rice-fish agricultural region, Congjiang County which enjoys a considerable ecological reserve, Qingtian County has consumed a greater amount of environmental resources. Specifically, about half of the ecological footprint of Qingtian County can be attributed to the cropland （50.8%） while the CO2 area only accounts for 11.2%, which is dramatically different from that of the modern industrialized regions. And a vast of percentage of energy is caused by the combustion of fuelwood which not only requires the land to absorb the CO2 emission it has generated but also occupies the forest where it has been chopped.     

中国农产品贸易流量及潜力测算——基于引力模型的实证分析

本文利用国际贸易引力模型(Gravity Model)对中国农产品贸易流量的决定因素及贸易潜力进行了实证分析.研究结果表明:优惠贸易安排对农产品贸易有明显的促进作用;农产品贸易国家之间的人均收入差距越大,农产品贸易越小.中国与墨西哥、俄罗斯、印度等发展中国家的农产品"贸易不足",潜力巨大;与发达国家或地区中的欧盟、加拿大和澳大利亚的贸易潜力有待开发.     

The effect of health investment on growth: A causality analysis

The aim of this paper is to analyze the effect of health investment on productivity as an important variable associated with human capital accumulation. The authors also study the possible existence of endogeneity by using instrumental variables estimation. The results that are obtained may be interpreted as evidence of the positive impact of health expenditure on income growth. Furthermore, the authors looked at the bounded gains of health status and divided the sample according to the median of total health expenditure and found that the countries with lower levels of health spending obtain larger benefits when the other determinants of growth are held constant.     

National pro-poor spending programmes and their effect on income inequality and poverty: Evidence from Vietnam

This article examines the causal effects of the national (pro-poor) targeted programmes (NTPs) on both poverty incidence and inequality in Vietnam over the period 2002–2010. While the links between NTPs and poverty alleviation and income inequality have previously been analysed independently, this study is the first to offer a comprehensive analysis of NTPs expenditure on poverty and inequality simultaneously. Applying the system generalized method of moments estimator to a panel of Vietnamese regional data, we are unable to establish that NTPs have significantly mitigated poverty incidence. However, we estimate that NTPs have significantly increased inequality. We offer possible explanations why the NTPs have resulted in these unintended outcomes and discuss potential policies which can reduce both poverty and inequality.     

Determinants of long-term growth: New results applying robust estimation and extreme bounds analysis

Two important problems exist in cross-country growth studies: outliers and model uncertainty. Employing Sala-i-Martin’s (1997a,b) data set, we first use robust estimation and analyze to what extent outliers influence OLS regressions. We then use both OLS and robust estimation techniques in applying the Extreme Bounds Analysis (EBA) to deal with the problem of model uncertainty. We find that the use of robust estimation affects the list of variables that are significant determinants of economic growth. Also the magnitude of the impact of these variables differs sometimes under the various approaches.First version received: March 2003 / Final version received: June 2004We like to thank two referees for their very helpful comments on a previous version of this paper. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Vilfredo pareto and contemporary economics: Social equilibrium, fiscal decentralisation and economic growth

During the second decade of the twentieth century, Vilfredo Pareto’s influence on the fiscal scholarship of Guido Sensini, Gino Borgatta and others in Italy was significant. In the 1920s a unique approach to fiscal thought developed which was grounded in the Paretian notion of social equilibrium. This study highlights the main features of this approach and considers why it went into decline from the 1930s and terminated in the 1950s. The paper also points to a potential benefit from integrating Aldo Scotto’s pioneering work on fiscal decentralisation with the Paretian fiscal thought of Sensini and Borgatta as part of a modern research program on the relationship between fiscal decentralisation and economic growth. (JEL:A12, B31, H00)     

Innovation and economic performance in services: a firm-level analysis

This paper explores the two-way relationship between innovationand economic performance in services using a longitudinal firm-leveldataset which matches data from the second Community InnovationSurvey, CIS II (1993–95), against a set of economic variablesprovided by the System of Enterprise Accounts (1993–98).The results presented show that innovation is positively affectedby past economic performance and that innovation activities(especially investments in ICTs) have a positive impact on bothgrowth and productivity. Furthermore, productivity and innovationact as a self-reinforcing mechanism, which further boosts economicperformance. These findings provide empirical support for theendogenous nature of innovation in services and the presencein this sector of competition models and selection mechanismsbased on innovation.     

The fiscal sociology of Gino Borgatta: Pareto, extra-economic redistribution and economic growth

The purpose of this study is to establish the extent to whichBorgatta's early fiscal sociology is consistent with, and differentfrom, Vilfredo Pareto's critical views on fiscal theory. Particularemphasis is given to the treatment of the relationship between‘extra-economic’ redistribution, achieved throughfiscal measures, and economic growth. Since evidence of Pareto'sinfluence is much weaker in Borgatta's more mature studies,the ‘definitive’ Paretian fiscal sociology thatemerged in his early ‘Lo Studio Scientifico dei FenomeniFinanziari’ is investigated for possible indications ofwhy Borgatta did not subsequently develop fiscal studies furtheralong Paretian lines.     

Monetary integration and inflation preferences: A real options analysis

We use a two-country model where policymakers minimize Barro-Gordon-type loss functions over inflation, and inflation preferences follow geometric Brownian motions, to characterize and solve the optimal stopping problem describing a given country's decision of whether or not to pursue monetary integration with the other one, and derive the conditions under which monetary integration can, or will never, be an equilibrium outcome in our economy. We then carry out comparative statics analysis on the bounds characterizing these conditions and on the range of relative inflation preference parameters that support monetary integration in equilibrium, and illustrate with numerical examples.     

经济发达地区的支农担保金制度的实证分析——基于江苏省无锡市锡山区问卷调查数据的分析

无锡作为一个经济发达的地区,其农业结构及发展具有特殊性——小农户日趋减少,农业趋向特色化、集约化、规模化。在这种情况下,锡山区区政府向农商行提供保证金来间接提高农户的信用程度,降低农户融资门槛,变补助金为保证金,强化政府对农村结构调整的政策倾斜。在专家学者把眼光聚焦在小农信贷的今天,研究该地区的大型农户的信贷情况具有前瞻意义。本文从保证金制度实施的目的、方法和效应上分析,该制度是如何体现政府加快产业结构调整的政策扶持,如何影响农户的贷款意愿,并最终保证支农资金的有效投放。