Option valuation with liquidity risk and jumps

This article provides a simple model for pricing and hedging options in the presence of jumps and liquidity costs. In the article, liquidity risk is modelled via a stochastic supply curve function and a jump-diffusion process is approximated by a Markov chain. Local risk minimization incorporating liquidity risk is proposed to price and hedge European options in this discrete-time model. Moreover, an example is provided to implement the modified risk minimization method and to demonstrate the performance of hedging strategies.     

Tail dependence risk exposure and diversification potential of Islamic and conventional banks

This paper undertakes a rolling window comparative analysis of risks for portfolios consisting of GCC Islamic and conventional bank indices. We draw our empirical results by employing canonical, drawable and regular vine copula models, as well as by implementing a portfolio optimization method with a conditional Value-at-Risk constraint. We find evidence of higher riskiness in the group of Islamic banks relative to the group of conventional banks across each of the financial rolling window scenarios under consideration. Specifically, a greater negative (nonlinear) tail asymmetric dependence is observed in the pairs of Islamic banks’ relationships. The results also show that the optimal portfolio model supports a clear preference towards the group of conventional banks in regard to risk minimization and diversification benefits.     

The sources of contagion risk in a banking sector with foreign ownership

Foreign-dominated banking sectors, such as those prevalent in Central and Eastern Europe, are susceptible to two major sources of systemic risk: (i) linkages between local banks and (ii) linkages between a foreign parent bank and its local subsidiary. During and after the global financial crisis, the second source of risk has been stressed by local regulators. Using a nonparametric method based on extreme value theory, we analyze interdependencies in downward risk in the banking sectors of the Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia, and Turkey during 1994–2013. We find that the risk of contagion from a foreign parent bank to its local subsidiary is substantially smaller than the risk between two local banks.     

Bank liquidity risk: From John Law (1705) to Walter Bagehot (1873)

Abstract

By granting credit and issuing money, banks take a liquidity risk - that is, the risk of being unable to reimburse its notes in coins. Five different explanations of a bank liquidity crisis have been provided by different authors, since John Law and up to Walter Bagehot. First, according to Law (1703) and Steuart ([1767] [1998]), the distinction between money of account (the pound sterling) and money of payment (the guinea) may induce a bank run. Second, according to Cantillon (1730), Hume ([1752 Goschen, G. J., 1861. The Theory of the Foreign Exchanges. London; Effingham Wilson, Royal, 1861. French edition, Théorie des changes étrangers, Librairie Guillaumin et C^ie Paris, 1892. 1861. [Google Scholar]] 1972), Ricardo (1810-1823) and the Currency School (1837-1858), the bank reserve becomes insufficient as a consequence of a diminishing value of money allied with over issues. Third, according to Thornton ([1802 Skaggs, N. T., 2010b. "For the love of truth: Henry Thornton's stance in the bullion committee debates. 2010 meeting of the History of Economics Society, Syracuse". 2010b. [Google Scholar]] 1939, 1991 Skaggs, N. T., 2010b. "For the love of truth: Henry Thornton's stance in the bullion committee debates. 2010 meeting of the History of Economics Society, Syracuse". 2010b. [Google Scholar]) and the Banking School (1840-1857), it can occur as a consequence of a falling exchange rate that is not linked with over issues. Fourth, according to Smith (1776) and the Banking School, discounting of fictitious bills, by decreasing the shareholders' funds, leads to bank illiquidity. Lastly, according to Thornton ([1802 Skaggs, N. T., 2010b. "For the love of truth: Henry Thornton's stance in the bullion committee debates. 2010 meeting of the History of Economics Society, Syracuse". 2010b. [Google Scholar]] 1939, 1991 Skaggs, N. T., 2010b. "For the love of truth: Henry Thornton's stance in the bullion committee debates. 2010 meeting of the History of Economics Society, Syracuse". 2010b. [Google Scholar]) and Bagehot (1873), the liquidity crisis is a consequence of bank panics: a "flight" to money for Thornton, a "flight" to credit for Bagehot. The analysis of these five different explanations sheds new light on classical monetary controversies.     

信息环境与公允价值的股价相关性——来自中国证券市场的经验证据

文章研究了不同信息环境下公允价值的股价相关性。公允价值的信息披露是否以及如何影响股票定价,一直是会计理论研究和会计准则制定研究的重要方面。2006年我国会计准则的改革为研究上述问题提供了重要的契机。根据中国上市公司按照新旧准则编制两份年报提供的数据,文章采用Ohlson模型分析了公允价值信息披露与股票定价之间的关系。结果表明,信息环境对公允价值在股票定价中的作用存在显著的影响,即公司与投资者之间的信息不对称程度越高,公允价值对股票定价的增量作用越显著。     

民营企业并购国有企业风险透析

民营企业并购国有企业是一项高风险资本经营活动。体制风险、国有资产流失风险和文化风险的产生具有客观性。建立趋同的价值理念，辨证认识民营企业，依法规范并购活动，实施人性化并购，是防控企业并购风险的有效举措。     

Commodity market risk from 1995 to 2013: an extreme value theory approach

In this article we examine whether extreme risk has increased in the agricultural commodity market during the period 1995–2013. We add to the literature on food price volatility by analysing the tail segment of futures price return distributions. Food price variability is a concern for governments and regulators worldwide, as most nations trade in food. High food price variability can contribute to poverty and malnourishment, in particular for people in less economically developed economies. We find no indications of systematically increasing tail-risk for the commodities in our sample. Analysis of estimated shape-parameters of the Generalized Extreme Value distribution further supports the conclusion that there is no general systematic change in the extreme risk associated with these commodity investments.     

Global financial crisis and dependence risk analysis of sector portfolios: a vine copula approach

We use regular vine (r-vine), canonical vine (c-vine) and drawable vine (d-vine) copulas to examine the dependence risk characteristics of three 20-stock portfolios from the retail, manufacturing and gold-mining equity sectors of the Australian market in periods before, during and after the 2008–2009 global financial crisis (GFC). Our results indicate that the retail portfolio is less risky than the manufacturing counterpart in the crisis period, while the gold-mining portfolio is less risky than both the retail and manufacturing sector portfolios. Both the retail and gold stocks display a higher propensity to yield positively skewed returns in the crisis periods, contrary to the manufacturing stocks. The r-vine is found to best capture the multivariate dependence structure of the stocks in the retail and gold-mining portfolios, while the d-vine does it for the manufacturing stock portfolio. These findings could be used to develop dependence risk- and investment risk-adjusted strategies for investment, rebalancing and hedging which more adequately account for the downside risk in various market conditions.     

内部控制与企业价值研究——来自沪深两市A股的经验分析

为了研究内部控制与企业价值的相关关系,文章构建了中国上市公司内部控制综合评价指数(ICI),基本涵盖了COSO框架下的控制环境、风险评估、控制手段、信息与沟通及监督五个主要方面。通过运用实际数据进行实证研究,发现我国上市公司的内部控制的建立和完善确实对企业价值有高度显著的正向促进作用,并随着改革的深入和证券市场的规范化,呈现出逐年强化的趋势。     

公允价值应用过程的风险分析及控制——基于投资者的视角

基于投资者的视角,公允价值应用风险可分为不应用风险和无效性风险,其中控制无效性风险是控制公允价值应用风险的关键。结合公允价值应用过程分析,文章指出导致无效性风险的关键环节是企业管理层对公允价值信息的计量和披露,该环节存在管理层故意风险和管理层非故意风险。针对这两种风险,建议从制定高质量的、与公允价值相关的会计、审计准则,完善公司治理机制和建立市场信息数据库,完善公允价值信息计量、披露等层面入手进行控制。     

Predicting Equity Markets with Digital Online Media Sentiment: Evidence from Markov-switching Models

The authors examine the predictive capabilities of online investor sentiment for the returns and volatility of MSCI U.S. Equity Sector Indices by including exogenous variables in the mean and volatility specifications of a Markov-switching model. As predicted by the semistrong efficient market hypothesis, they find that the Thomson Reuters Marketpsych Indices (TRMI) predict volatility to a greater extent than they do returns. The TRMI derived from equity specific digital news are better predictors than similar sentiment from social media. In the two-regime setting, there is evidence supporting the hypothesis of emotions playing a more important role during stressed markets compared to calm periods. The authors also find differences in sentiment sensitivity between different industries: it is greatest for financials, whereas the energy and information technology sectors are scarcely affected by sentiment. Results are obtained with the R programming language. Code is available from the authors upon request.     

Technological change under residual risk regulation: The case of coke ovens in the U.S. steel industry

An engineering-economic model is used within a dynamic setting to determine the least cost mix of investment and import activities as the U.S. steel industry faces successively tighter controls on coke oven emissions over the next 10 years. In response to Maximum Achievable Control Technology (MACT) standards proposed for 1995, U.S. steel producers would likely export their toxic pollution by importing 6 million tons of coke per year. About 4 million tons of coke oven capacity is retrofit and about 1 million tons of annual coke consumption is replaced by new iron technologies, such as Corex. The Lowest Achievable Emission Rate (LAER) standards proposed for 1998 roughly double the coke oven retirements estimated to occur under MACT. Coke imports also are substantial but are no higher than under MACT because the additional time allows the industry to invest in more coke-saving blast furnaces and in new less toxic coke-making technologies, such as the Jewell process. The LAER standards in conjunction with higher capital costs, however, force coke imports to more than 8 million tons per year and sharply increase imports of semi-finished steel. Such a situation could exacerbate existing disputes on international steel trade.The authors are associate professor, instructor, and graduate student, respectively. This research was performed under the sponsorship of the U.S. Department of Interior, Bureau of Mines Distinguished Young Scholar Award Administered by Oak Ridge Associated Universities for the Bureau of Mines. Naturally, the usual disclaimer applies.     

Group and individual risk preferences: A lottery-choice experiment with self-employed and salaried workers

This paper focuses on decision making under risk, comparing group and individual risk preferences in a lottery-choice experiment. In the individual treatment, subjects make choices individually; in the group treatment, each subject placed in a group made lottery choice via voting. In the choice treatment, subjects choose whether to be on their own or in a group. The originality of this research lies in the fact that we introduced variability in socio-demographic characteristics by recruiting salaried and self-employed workers. Our main findings indicate that groups are more likely than individuals to choose safe lotteries. Our results also show that individuals risk attitude is correlated with both the type and the sector of employment.     

Beware of the crash risk: Tail beta and the cross-section of stock returns in China

We investigate the pricing of systematic tail risk measured by tail beta in the Chinese equity market. Using an array of tests, we examine the performance of more than 3,300 stocks for the years 1999 through 2018. Contrary to evidence from developed markets, we demonstrate a strong negative relationship between the tail beta and future returns. The effect is robust to many considerations and cannot be explained by established pricing factors or alternative risk or illiquidity measures. We link our findings to specific characteristics of the Chinese stock market.     

Relative risk aversion, relative prudence and comparative statics under uncertainty: The case of (μ, σ)‐preferences

From the expected‐utility approach, relative risk aversion being smaller than one and relative prudence being smaller than two emerge as preference restrictions that fully determine the optimal responses of decisions under uncertainty to certain shifts in probability distributions. We characterize the magnitudes of relative risk aversion and relative prudence in terms of the two‐parameter, mean‐standard deviation approach. We demonstrate that this characterization is instrumental in obtaining comparative static results in the two‐parameter setting. We further relate our findings to the results in the expected‐utility framework.     

Impact of macroeconomic factors and country risk ratings on GCC stock markets: evidence from a dynamic panel threshold model with regime switching

This study examines the non-linear relationship between stock markets in GCC countries and their country risk ratings as well as with major macroeconomic factors. Based on a dynamic panel threshold model with two and four regimes, the results provide evidence of short-term asymmetry between first-lagged GCC stock returns and the performance of GCC stock markets. In addition, only the financial risk (FR) rating has a significant positive effect on the performance of GCC stock markets according to the prevailing regimes for the GCC lagged returns and the Brent oil market. Among the macroeconomic factors, improvements in the global stock markets, the MSCI Global Islamic Index, and the oil price increased the performance of GCC stock markets, whereas increases in the gold price, the 3-month U.S. Treasury bill rate, and the U.S. Treasury bond rate reduced the performance of the GCC stock markets. These results have important implications for investors, policymakers, and portfolio managers.     

Generalizing the New Interpretation of the Marxian Value Theory: A Simulation Analysis with Stochastic Profit Rate and Labor Heterogeneity

This article elucidates the relation between price and labor content in the context of generalizing the New Interpretation of Marxian value theory. We examine a generalized New Interpretation in a linear economic model introducing a differential value-creating capacity of different concrete labors, which regards price, value and the profit rate as random variables. Simulations are performed by constructing stochastic models with labor heterogeneity in two comparable ways. Considering that the standard New Interpretation suffers from the indeterminacy of the skilled labor reduction criterion without the assumption of an equalized rate of surplus value, it is hoped that the results of this analysis provide a research guideline for bridging the theoretical gap.