Delegated portfolio management and diversification

This article analyses the potential diversification benefits available to high-net-worth investors utilizing multiple portfolio managers. We show that enlisting seven actively managed portfolios from multiple portfolio managers generate significant benefits in terms of risk reduction, and, interestingly, diversification benefits are shown to be larger for low-risk portfolios compared to high-risk portfolios.     

Delegated portfolio management and optimal allocation of portfolio managers

In this article, we investigate whether the application of the mean-variance framework on portfolio manager allocation offers any out-of-sample benefits compared to a naïve strategy of equal weighting. Based on an exclusive data-set of high-net-worth (HNW) investors, we utilize a wide variety of methodologies to estimate the input parameters including exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA), generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) and Bayes–Stein shrinkage estimation. We apply nine different mean-variance models, but find that none of these present any consistent benefit over a naïve strategy of equal weighting.     

The optimal shape of compensation contracts with earnings management

The research question of why earnings management occurs is decomposed into two questions in this article: Which component of executive compensation generates incentives for earnings management? and Why is the compensation structured that way in the first place? We first use as a dynamic stochastic equilibrium model to show that ‘big bath’ and earning overstatement can co-exist as equilibrium financial reporting strategies when thresholds are used in compensation contracts. In order to understand the use of performance thresholds as a prevailing compensation strategy in practice, we then derive the optimal compensation contract when the manager is privately informed about economic earnings and his expertise in managing earnings. Equilibria exist in which the inactive region below a threshold in compensation should be economically significant.     

Incentives for motivated agents under an administrative constraint

Consider an agent who has an expertise in producing a non-marketable good. This good is valued by a single principal, and there is a verifiable measure of the agent’s performance. Crucially, the agent is intrinsically motivated due to ‘warm glow altruism’. In addition, the agent’s budget, which is controlled by the principal, must not be less than the monetary performance-cost faced by the agent. This gives rise to a limited-liability constraint. It also restricts the agent’s ability to under-report costs. In such environment, we determine the link between the agent’s budget and performance. Our results come in contrast to the received solution of the principal-agent problem and to most in the literature on mission-motivated organisations and public services provision.     

基于心理契约的知识型员工激励机制的研究

随着我国知识经济的发展,承载着知识、技能、信息、技术的知识型员工作为知识的生产者,成为企业价值的主要创造力量。在现代管理中,知识型员工已成为企业竞争优势的战略性资源。因此,如何有效激励知识型员工,充分调动他们工作的主动性和积极性,使其最大限度的发挥创造力,提高企业的竞争力是21世纪新型经济的重要命题。对知识型员工的激励除了经济契约外,更重要的是在组织和员工之间建立一种心理契约。本文将从心理契约的理论入手,在公平理论、激励理论等的指导下,得出知识型员工的心理契约特性;同时将知识型员工心理契约划分为交易型心理契约、关系型心理契约和发展型心理契约三个维度;最后,从上述三个维度的视角,分别提出与之对应的激励机制。     

Herding in delegated portfolio management: When is comparative performance information desirable?

We address the issue of investors’ asset allocation decisions when portfolio management is delegated to an agent. Contrary to predictions from traditional financial theory, it is shown that investors may not induce their manager to allocate funds to the asset with the highest return. Instead they may herd in their asset allocation decision and induce trade in a particular asset, because another manager is trading in it and despite the presence of a more profitable alternative. Doing so allows investors to write an efficiency-improving relative-performance contract. On the other hand, herding leads investors to design wage contracts strategically, resulting in more aggressive and thus less profitable trade in equilibrium. We show that herding occurs, when the cost of information is high, information precision is low and when managers are sufficiently risk averse. Moreover, when investors can decide whether or not to disclose information about their manager's performance, they will not do so.     

我国国际储备资产的最优结构研究——基于时变Copula及VaR的投资组合模型分析

文章通过构建效用评估函数,使用时变相关T-Copula模型、Monte Carlo模拟和VaR计算方法系统研究了我国国际储备的最优结构。结果发现,我国黄金的最优占比应至少为23%。据此,文章对多个国家储备资产的变化情况进行了动态和静态比较,发现不同类别的演化路径,而以我国和其他金砖四国为代表的类别处于收益递减、风险增大的状态中,亟须加大黄金储备至优化区间。     

基于激励相容的企业绩效管理模式设计

激励性绩效模式是企业有效实施绩效管理和全面提升绩效水平的关键.针对我国企业绩效管理体系普遍缺乏激励性的问题,基于激励相容理论,设计了一种绩效管理模式.首先,构建了企业员工的绩效参与约束条件与激励相容条件.其次,根据企业与员工之间不同的信息披露情况,分别建立了信息对称条件下的激励相容绩效模型和信息不对称条件下的激励相容绩效模型.在此基础上,明确了企业绩效管理模式的实现路径.最后,通过企业实例验证了信息不对称条件下的企业激励相容绩效管理模式新颖、有效且合理,能够同时实现员工激励最大化和企业收益最大化.     

非对称信息条件下最优承包合同的研究

承发包双方在合同变更中的机会主义和信息的非对称性,产生了“敲竹杠”和投资过小现象以及隐藏信息的道德风险问题。运用委托-代理理论建立了非对称信息条件下的最优承包合同模型,对上述问题进行了研究。证明在承包商隐藏信息务件下,最优承包合同将使承包商的专用投资水平下降、工程项目工期延长、业主效用降低。     

The accuracy of interest rate forecasts in the Asia-Pacific region: opportunities for portfolio management

We analysed interest rate forecasts from Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand. We assessed 532 forecast time series with a total of 85,264 individual interest rate forecasts. To do so, we carried out a comparison to naïve forecasts and investigated the forecast time series for topically orientated trend adjustments. In addition, we deployed the sign accuracy test and the unbiasedness test. The results are very sobering in part: 95.9% of all forecast time series are characterized by the phenomenon of topically orientated trend adjustments, and 99.4% of all forecast time series proved to be biased. Only a small proportion of the forecast time series (3.6%) reflected the future interest rate trend significantly more precisely than a naïve forecast. However, at the same time some of the results of the study are surprisingly positive. The sign accuracy test revealed that 48.3% of all forecast time series predict the interest rate trend significantly better than a random walk forecast.     

Integrating technology roadmapping and portfolio management at the front-end of new product development

Many authors point out that the front-end of new product development (NPD) is a critical success factor in the NPD process and that numerous companies face difficulties in carrying it out appropriately. Therefore, it is important to develop new theories and proposals that support the effective implementation of this earliest phase of NPD. This paper presents a new method to support the development of front-end activities based on integrating technology roadmapping (TRM) and project portfolio management (PPM). This new method, called the ITP Method, was implemented at a small Brazilian high-tech company in the nanotechnology industry to explore the integration proposal. The case study demonstrated that the ITP Method provides a systematic procedure for the fuzzy front-end and integrates innovation perspectives into a single roadmap, which allows for a better alignment of business efforts and communication of product innovation goals. Furthermore, the results indicated that the method may also improve quality, functional integration and strategy alignment.     

二级供应链中代理人的甄别与激励研究

文章分析了由一个制造商与一个分销商所组成的二级供应链中,既存在契约签订之前的逆向选择问题又存在契约签订之后的道德风险问题这一情况下,制造商对分销商的类型甄别及努力激励的机制设计问题。主要得到以下结论：①制造商可以通过努力收益分享的方式激励销售商投入最优的努力水平,进而规避道德风险行为。②制造商通过设计一组激励相容机制可以达到甄别分销商类型的目的,但必须支付给高销售能力分销商一定的租金。③高销售能力分销商的销量水平不存在扭曲,而低销售能力分销商的销量水平向下扭曲,其原因在于制造商降低给低销售能力分销商规定的销量就能够降低支付给高销售能力分销商的信息租金。文章从供应链中逆向选择与道德风险共存的角度对供应链委托代理关系进行研究,得出结论为供应链中的委托代理双方提供了一定的决策依据。     

考虑终止权的两阶段研发投资激励和合同设计

针对产品研发过程中的投资激励问题,分别建立了存在终止权和不存在终止权两种情况下的两阶段研发投资决策模型,并利用逆向归纳法讨论了委托方的偿付合同设计。研究结果表明:当第一阶段的研发结果为高质量时,代理人在第二阶段的投资积极性更高,代理人在第一阶段的投资水平和委托方支付的最优偿付都随着低质量时研发成功的比例系数而单调递减;研发活动的终止威胁导致代理人的投资积极性降低;在一定范围内,或有终止权偿付合同能够缓解信息不对称时的投资不足问题、提高双方的研发合作效率。     

The role of cultural and creative industries in optimizing industrial structure under low-carbon emission constraint

In the post-financial crisis era,China is facing dual pressure from reducing carbon emissions and external demand stagnation.The industrial structure changing is in urgent needs.The cultural and creative industries can expand China＇s markets through creating and stimulating demands,and can reduce carbon emissions at the same time.By producing both demands and supplies,cultural and creative industries may lead the development of other industries.Since innovation plays a quite important role in the value chain,cultural and creative industries can promote the industrial upgrading and the industrial structure optimization by industrial convergence.     

心理契约在知识型员工管理中的应用分析

本文从知识型员工的特征出发,对知识型员工的管理问题进行探索。认为心理契约在知识型员工的管理中发挥着重要作用。企业应充分认识知识型员工心理契约的特点,并采取相应的管理措施,才能调动知识型员工的积极性,提高企业的管理效率。     

基于不对称需求信息的激励机制模型研究

针对由单制造商和单销售商组成的供应链,提出了供应链双方需求信息对称情况下的激励机制模型,并在此基础上建立了供应链双方在需求信息不对称情况下的运作策略模型。制造商通过折扣,运用激励相容机制使销售商诚实申报需求信息,使得供应链利润最大化的同时供应链成员实现双赢。数字试验结果表明:①所提策略是有效的;②该策略不仅能提高制造商利润,而且也能改善销售商的利润。     

On extensive form implementation of contracts in differential information economies

Summary. In the context of differential information economies, with and without free disposal, we consider the concepts of Radner equilibrium, rational expectations equilibrium, private core, weak fine core and weak fine value. We look into the possible implementation of these concepts as perfect Bayesian or sequential equilibria of noncooperative dynamic formulations. We construct relevant game trees which indicate the sequence of decisions and the information sets, and explain the rules for calculating ex ante expected payoffs. The possibility of implementing an allocation is related to whether or not it is incentive compatible. Implementation through an exogenous third party or an endogenous intermediary is also considered. Received: November 19, 2001; revised version: April 17, 2002 RID="*" ID="*" This paper comes out of a visit by Nicholas Yannelis to City University, London, in December 2000. We are grateful to Dr A. Hadjiprocopis for his invaluable help with the implementation of Latex in a Unix environment. We also thank Leon Koutsougeras and a referee for several, helpful comments. Correspondence to: N.C. Yannelis     

信息管理与信息系统专业创新课程体系研究

随着信息技术的高速发展,社会对信息人才的要求不断变化。为适应社会需求,信息管理与信息系统专业有必要重新审视原有课程体系,以期培养适应社会变化的专业领域人才。以哈尔滨理工大学为例,通过对该校信息管理与信息系统专业定位、培养目标及学科性质的分析,设计一套完整的、适合于理工院校信息专业的课程体系,从而达到为社会输送信息专业复合型应用人才的目的。     

An empirical procedure to evaluate monetary management under exogenous changes in the money supply

This article proposes an empirical procedure to evaluate central banks’ monetary management in a presence of exogenous changes in the money supply. Monetary shocks deviate the market interest rate from the target, and the monetary authority decides its optimal intervention in the money market, bearing in mind the benefits and costs of re-establishing its target interest rate. According to monetary management theory, typically a central bank will allow for variation in the interest rate within a range around the target interest rate, thereby intervening in the money market when the interest rate trends toward a point outside that range. In this context, we develop an empirical strategy to analyse central bank’s reactions to exogenous money changes by making a statistical comparison of the actual and the estimated intraday shift in the money supply. We also employ our method to test the reactions of the Brazilian Central Bank to liquidity shifts caused by changes in the Treasury Single Account (TSA) balance. Using different metrics of analysis, the applications of our procedure confirms the predictions of the optimal monetary management theory.