RETRACTED ARTICLE: Prediction of economic growth by extreme learning approach based on science and technology transfer

The purpose of this research is to develop and apply the extreme learning machine (ELM) to forecast gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate. Economic growth may be developed on the basis on combination of different factors. In this investigation was analyzed the economic growth prediction based on the science and technology transfer. The main goal was to analyze the influence of number of granted European patents on the economic growth by field of technology. GDP was used as economic growth indicator. The ELM results are compared with genetic programming (GP) and artificial neural network (ANN). The reliability of the computational models were accessed based on simulation results and using several statistical indicators. Coefficient of determination for ELM method is 0.9841, for ANN method it is 0.7956 and for the GP method it is 0.7561. Based upon simulation results, it is demonstrated that ELM can be utilized effectively in applications of GDP forecasting.

     

Determination of the most influential factors for number of patents prediction by adaptive neuro-fuzzy technique

Number of patents may be developed on the basis on different natural and science and technological factors. Number of patents prediction based on the different factors in many countries is analyzed in this investigation. These factors represent natural and science resources. The method of ANFIS (adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system) was applied to the data in order to select the most influential factors for the number of patents prediction. Five inputs are considered: research and development (R&D) resources, natural resources, quality of academic institutions, quality of collaboration with the private sector and quality of education. As the ANFIS output, number of patents is considered. The ANFIS process for variable selection is also implemented in order to detect the predominant factors affecting the prediction of number of patents. Results show that the R&D is the most influential factor for the number of patents prediction.     

The Influence of Technology Differences on Corporate Environmental Patents: A Resource‐Based Versus an Institutional View of Green Innovations

This paper proposes that both the resource‐based view and institutional theory predict a positive relationship between the number of patented environmental innovations and non‐environmental innovations held by a firm, because they both are subject to the influence of similar factors. However, while the resource‐based view predicts that technological differences between the patented environmental innovations owned by a firm and those in the industry as a whole will positively affect the firm's environmental innovations, the institutional perspective predicts a negative relationship. Our results derive from a sample of 5537 environmental patents from 59 large companies in the electrical components and equipment industry worldwide, and show a positive relationship between patented environmental and non‐environmental innovations in a firm, but a negative influence on the number of the firm's patented environmental innovations resulting from differences between the firm's environmental technologies and those generally prevalent in the industry. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment     

Estimation of the most influential science and technology factors for economic growth forecasting by soft computing technique

Economic growth may be developed on the basis on combination of different factors. In this investigation was analyzed the economic growth forecasting based on the different factors. The main goal was to analyze the influence of science and technology factors on the economic growth. Gross domestic product (GDP) was used as economic growth indicator. The method of adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) was applied to the data in order to select the most influential factors for the GDP growth rate forecasting. Ten inputs are considered: research and development (R&D) expenditure in GDP, scientific and technical journal articles, patent applications for nonresidents, patent applications for residents, trademark applications for nonresidents, trademark applications for residents, total trademark applications, researchers in R&D, technicians in R&D and high-technology exports. The ANFIS process for variable selection was also implemented in order to detect the predominant factors affecting the forecasting of GDP growth rate.     

Effects of Schumpeterian and Kirznerian entrepreneurship on economic growth: panel data evidence

Abstract

The relevant literature recognises Schumpeterian and Kirznerian entrepreneurship as mechanisms that can impact economic growth. This article seeks to explore the effects of these two types of entrepreneurship on economic growth across the three GEM (Global Entrepreneurship Monitor) economic ecosystems (factor-driven economy, efficiency-driven economy, innovation-driven economy). Using different databases, we applied unbalanced panel data for 43 countries (2009–2013). By estimating the econometric models, we were able to calculate the effects of these two types of entrepreneurship on economic growth in the three different types of economy. In terms of the overall model for GEM economies, neither Schumpeterian nor Kirznerian entrepreneurship return any statistically significant effects on the Global Competitiveness Index or on GDP growth. However, the Total Early-Stage Entrepreneurial Activity variable generates a positive effect on the Global Competitiveness Index. The results presented in this paper provide insights into entrepreneurship and the GEM entrepreneurial economic ecosystems.     

Green growth versus economic growth: Do sustainable technology transfer and innovations lead to an imperfect choice?

A concern with the mitigation of climate change cuts a transversal line across economic agents, epitomized by two contradictory viewpoints. Some defend that green growth can be achieved without harming economic growth; others argue that it is not possible to respect sustainability if intensive consumption of goods continues to foster economic growth. Our research aims to analyze the role that sustainable technology transfer and sustainable innovations play in green growth and ascertain the impact of green growth on economic growth. We use aggregated country-level data provided by the OECD, including national accounts, population, and environment statistics (including patents) between 1990 and 2013 for 32 countries, corresponding to an unbalanced panel of 591 observations. We estimate econometric models based on dynamic panel methodologies to capture differences that exist over time. The results show that sustainable technology transfer and sustainable innovation promote green growth, which in turn positively impacts economic growth. We contribute new insight to the green growth versus economic growth debate and provide several political and management implications.     

The impact of oil price changes on selected macroeconomic indicators in Azerbaijan

We examine the relationship between oil price fluctuations and economic activity in Azerbaijan using vector autoregressive models for the period 2002Q1–2018Q4. Our key results are as follows. First, growth in the gross domestic product (GDP) decreases after oil price innovations in the oil and gas sector and in the remainder of the economy. Downturns (upswings) in the oil and gas sector also prompt downturns (upswings) in the non-oil sector as fluctuations in oil revenues affect the government's capacity to subsidize the rest of the economy. Second, oil price innovations also lead to higher inflation in Azerbaijan. In response to the required tightening of monetary policy, the manat appreciates against the US dollar. Finally, GDP effects are primarily seen after oil price increases, whereas the interest rate and the exchange rate mainly react to decreases. Inflation increases after both types of shocks, due to either the accommodative monetary policy stance in the case of oil price decreases or the shock itself in the case of increases.     

Non-self-averaging in macroeconomic models: a criticism of modern micro-founded macroeconomics

When the coefficient of variation, namely the ratio of the standard deviation over the mean approaches zero as the number of economic agents becomes large, a system is called self-averaging. Otherwise, it is non-self-averaging. Most economic models take it for granted that the economic system is self-averaging. However, they are based on the extremely unrealistic assumption that all the economic agents face the same probability distribution, and that micro shocks are independent. Once these unrealistic assumptions are dropped, non-self-averaging behavior naturally emerges. Using a simple stochastic growth model, this paper demonstrates that the coefficient of variation of aggregate output or GDP does not go to zero even if the number of sectors or economic agents goes to infinity. Non-self-averaging phenomena imply that even if the number of economic agents is large, dispersion could remain significant, and we cannot legitimately focus solely on the means of aggregate variables. This, in turn, means that the standard microeconomic foundations based on representative agents have little value for they are meant to provide us with accurate dynamics of the means of aggregate variables. Contrary to the main stream view, micro-founded macroeconomics such as a dynamic general equilibrium model does not provide solid micro foundations.     

Assigning Patents to Industries: Tests of the Yale Technology Concordance

We describe a method to predict patent counts disaggregated by industry, using available data on patenting by technology field. This method—the Yale Technology Concordance (YTC)—exploits a data set of patents that have been individually assigned by the Canadian Patent Office to both an industry and a technology field. The procedure for predicting patents by industry is developed as a statistical model so that the standard errors of the predictions can be estimated. The YTC is tested on several subsets of Canadian patents by comparing out-of-sample predictions with industry assignments made by the Canadian Patent Office. We find that the predictions of patents by industry are quite accurate for the subset of patents form US inventors. The prediction errors are much greater for the subset of patents granted or published after 1989. This suggests that the relationship between the technology fields and industries has shifted in a way that the procedure does not capture. Nonetheless, predictions from the YTC do appear to give a reasonably accurate picture of the pattern of patenting by industry.     

Does sport affect the competitiveness of European Union countries? An analysis of the degree of innovation and GDP per capita using linear and QCA models

The sport industry has experienced great growth in recent years worldwide, and especially in the European Union (EU) countries. However, despite the role that this industry can play in improving the competitiveness of these countries (Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita and innovation performance), no studies have been found that analyse its influence. So, the main aim of this study is, firstly, to analyse the relationship between the innovation performance and the GDP per capita of EU countries, and, secondly, to find out how sport-related indicators and different innovation-related indicators influence the innovation performance and GDP per capita of the EU countries. To this end, two different methodologies have been used: hierarchical regression models and qualitative comparative analysis (QCA). A total sample of 23 EU countries have been analysed. The results show that GDP per capita and innovation performance are highly correlated in a positive and significant way (0.76; p?<?.0001), and that the variables related to sport help explain the variance of these two variables, highlighting as necessary variable in both cases the growth in the sports sector (consistency >0.90). Finally, a number of practical implications are presented that can help policy makers to improve the competitiveness of EU countries.

     

Foreign and domestic growth drivers in Eastern Europe

This paper analyses the growth effects of capital formation, exports and FDI as major, drivers of economic development in Eastern Europe. The fundamental innovations are, identified by empirically and theoretically motivated short- and long-run restrictions in, structural cointegrated vector autoregressions. Impulse responses and variance, decompositions reveal quite different growth effects in various Eastern European countries. Generally, a strong reliance on exports goes along with higher GDP, and FDI bears, substantial potential for fostering economic growth. It is shown that the recent worldwide, recession clearly hit Eastern Europe through the export channel, whereas the recovery is, mainly supported by positive demand shocks.     

Subjective performance of patent examiners,implicit contracts,and self‐funded patent offices

Self‐funded patent offices should be concerned with patent quality (patents should be granted to only deserving innovations) and quantity (as revenues come from fees paid by applicants). In this context, we investigate what is the impact of the self‐funded constraint on different bonus contracts and how these contracts affect the examiners' incentive to prosecute patent applications. We consider contracts in which a patent office offers bonuses on quantity quotas (explicit contract) and on quality outcome (either an implicit contract or an explicit contract based on a quality proxy). We find that a self‐funded constrained agency should make different organization choices of incentives. For a low quality proxy precision, an agency facing a tight budget operates well with implicit contracts. However, by only relaxing moderately the budget constraint, the agency might be worse off simply because this will preclude implicit contracts. Only very large patenting fees might allow the agency to compensate for the loss of implicit contracts.     

The impact of initial public offerings on innovations: Short-termism or initial governance force exit?

We study the impact of initial public offerings (IPOs) on corporate innovations in China. The findings suggest that going public significantly impedes corporate innovations by lowering overall innovation quality. For firms with shareholders selling or pledging less shares after IPO, the number of patents increases, but the nonself-citations per patent decrease relative to matched non-IPO firms. In contrast, for firms with shareholders selling or pledging more shares after IPOs, both the number of patents and nonself-citations per patent decrease. The magnitudes of impact in the latter are stronger than those of former, supporting the initial governance force exit hypothesis.     

Smithian National Product and the Wealth of African Nations

Abstract . Given the contemporary interest in growth, conventional measures of economic growth (changes in real GDP or real GDP per capita) may be less preferable than a measure that is more plutological by design. The plutological measure presented in this paper is that of Adam Smith (1776 ). While Smith's work pre‐dated formal national income accounting, there was a macroeconomic accounting scheme implicit in his theorizing on economic growth. This study articulates Adam Smith's concept of national product (referred to as Smithian national product, or SNP). It uses current output data to compute SNP for a set of six African countries, and examines the growth experience of these countries when using SNP as opposed to the more conventional GDP measure.     

Are intellectual property rights unfair?

If redistribution is distortionary, and if the income of skilled workers is due to knowledge-intensive activities and depends positively on intellectual property, a social planner which cares about income distribution may in principle want to use a reduction in intellectual property rights (IPRs) rather than redistributive transfers. On the one hand, such a reduction reduces static inefficiency. On the other hand, standard redistribution also reduces the level of R and D because it distorts occupational choice. We study this possibility in the context of a model with horizontal innovation, where the government, in addition to taxes and transfers, controls the fraction of innovations that are granted patents. The model predicts that standard redistribution always dominates limitations to IPRs.     

World Economic Prospects

Overview: Global upswing delayed

• This month sees our global GDP growth forecast for 2015 revised down to 2.7%, implying no improvement from 2014. At the start of the year, we expected world growth for 2015 at 2.9%.
• A key factor behind the slippage in our global forecast has been a softening of activity in the US. The balance of economic surprises (actual data versus expected) has deteriorated sharply in recent months. As a result, we now expect US growth at 2.7% this year, compared to 3.3% at the start of 2015.
• We are wary of reading too much into the most recent data, as the US and other advanced economies also went through ‘soft patches’ at the starts of both 2013 and 2014, but recovered. Also, the balance of economic surprises for the G10 is only moderately negative – and is strongly positive for the Eurozone.
• One area of concern is sluggish US consumption recently – despite lower oil prices. But with labour market conditions favourable and disposable income growing solidly, we expect this to prove a blip. And the evidence from advanced economies as a whole suggests lower oil prices have boosted consumers.
• There are nevertheless genuine drags on global growth. The strong dollar appears to be weighing on US exports and investment, and curbing profits. It is also damaging growth in some emerging markets through its negative impact on commodity prices and capital flows and via balance sheet effects (raising the burden of dollar‐denominated debt).
• Meanwhile, this month also sees a fresh downgrade to our forecast for China – GDP is now expected to rise 6.6% this year versus 6.8% a month ago. This reflects weakness in a number of key indicators and also the likely impact of a squeeze on local government finances from the property sector slump.
• With the US and China representing a third of global GDP, slower growth there will also tend to retard world trade growth. We continue to expect world GDP growth to reach 3% in 2016, but 2015 now looks like being another year of sub‐par global growth.

     

E=mc2: Material and energy innovation as a basis for economic growth – Thoughts for scientists and engineers

Theories that consider technology as the basis for economic growth focus on products – fundamental innovations. These theories have created much interest due to their ability to explain many economic events. However, technology-based long wave theories have been the subject of much criticism by traditional economists. Many of these concerns are addressed by changing a focus on products to engineering materials and forms of energy that are critical for the success of the fundamental innovations. Changing the focus from product to materials and energy not only addresses concerns of economists, but provides insights to scientists and engineers on the development of materials and energy and the management of research throughout the lifecycle of engineered materials and forms of energy.     

What has caused China’s economic growth?

Economic growth is driven by numerous factors. However, traditional economic theory focuses on certain key reasons, while ignoring the impact of other factors. Since 1978, China has achieved unprecedented economic growth, but also faces low per capita GDP. To clarify the driving forces behind this situation, we used per capita GDP to represent China’s economic growth and performed total factor analysis based on 13 variables in 7 socioeconomic dimensions using panel data from 30 Chinese provinces over the 40 years since China opened to the west in 1978. We found similar determinants in different regressions. Internal trade, privatization and investment were the primary factors driving Chinese economic development. Surprisingly, we found that the contribution of foreign trade to economic growth (per capita GDP) was weak. Education had a much smaller contribution than science and technology. Using per capita income as the dependent variable to provide a robustness test, we found that China’s income distribution has not paralleled its economic development and the distribution of the benefits of GDP growth to citizens must be improved. China’s experience demonstrates that promoting economic growth requires coordinated development of many factors, and that different policy preferences should be adopted to meet different economic development conditions.     

World Economic Prospects Monthly

Overview: Growth resilient to protectionist concerns

• ? Despite the mounting threat of more protectionist trade measures, we expect the impact on global growth and trade to be mild. Given this, and the still fairly solid underlying economic picture, we have left our global GDP growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019 unchanged at 3.2% and 3.0% respectively.
• ? Although economic data in Q1 painted a pretty solid picture, there are signs that the global expansion may lose momentum in Q2. Most notably, the global PMI fell sharply in March, more than offsetting the gains of the previous three quarters or so. Some of the decline may reflect an over‐reaction to recent trade threats and could be reversed in April and despite the drop, the surveys still point to strong growth. But the fall highlights the risk that lingering trade tensions could damage confidence and prompt firms and consumers to delay investment and major spending plans.
• ? On a more positive note, China's economic growth picked up markedly in early 2018, which could provide a fillip to global trade growth in the near term. Given the betterthan‐expected start to the year, we have made no change to our 2018 China GDP growth forecast (of 6.4%) despite the probable negative effects of trade measures.
• ? Meanwhile, most advanced economies remain in the late expansionary stage of the cycle. And those that show signs of slowing, such as the Eurozone, are doing so from multi‐year highs. While we have nudged down our 2018 Eurozone GDP growth forecast slightly to 2.2%, the pace is expected to remain well above trend. We judge the impact of US tariffs and counter‐measures on the US economy to be subdued and have lowered our GDP growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019 by just 0.1pp.
• ? For now, we see further solid growth for the world economy this year even in the environment of rising protectionism. While there is a risk that a further escalation of trade tensions could trigger a sharper slowdown in global GDP growth, we still see the risks of a full‐blown and damaging trade war as limited and the chances of protectionism leading to recessions as smaller still.

     

World Economic Prospects Monthly

Overview: entering 2018 with plenty of momentum

• ? Further evidence that the global economy ended last year on a high note is consistent with our view that world GDP growth in 2018 will be around 3.2%, a little better than the likely rise of 3% in 2017 and the best annual outturn since 2011.
• ? The global economy has entered 2018 with plenty of momentum. In December, the global composite PMI continued to trend upwards, rising to its highest level of 2017. This was primarily down to developments in the manufacturing sector, with several emerging markets recording especially strong gains.
• ? While the strength of the manufacturing PMI bodes well for global trade, other timely trade indicators, particularly from Asia, have been less positive. On balance, though, we have nudged up our forecast for world trade growth iwn 2018 to 4.8%. But this would still be a slowdown after last year's estimated rise of 6%.
• ? This partly reflects the change in the drivers of GDP growth from 2017. We still expect a modest slowdown in China, triggering a sharper drop‐off in import growth there. Eurozone GDP growth is also likely to slow slightly, to 2.2%, which is still well above our estimate of potential growth. By contrast, we have nudged up our US GDP growth forecast for this year to 2.8% – 0.5pp higher than the probable 2017 outturn – as looser fiscal policy will not be fully offset by tighter monetary policy. The recent rise in commodity prices, further dollar weakness and still‐strong global trade growth all bode well for prospects in many emerging markets.
• ? Some commentators have questioned the durability of the global economic expansion, reflecting the long period of uninterrupted GDP growth and concerns that a financial market slowdown could eventually impinge on growth. But economic expansions do not die of old age. And while equity markets look expensive on many metrics, we expect strong earnings growth to push equity prices higher over the coming months. Meanwhile, although various geopolitical risks remain, more generally economic uncertainty has diminished.