Effects of Multilateral Trade Liberalization on Prices*

To analyze the effects of simultaneous tariff reductions by multiple importing countries on prices, we construct a simple three‐country model where a good is produced by a monopolist with nonconstant marginal cost and imported by two countries. We compare two representative tariff‐reduction formulas: the “fixed‐amount” and the “uniform percentage” reductions. The uniform percentage reductions may increase the consumer price in the importing country, whose initial tariff is lower. Thus, importing countries with relatively low tariffs may prefer a bilateral trade agreement to a multilateral one to ensure consumer gains.     

FDI Policy,Greenfield Investment and Cross‐border Mergers

This paper examines a multinational's choice between greenfield investment and cross‐border merger when it enters another country via foreign direct investment (FDI) and faces the host country's FDI policy. Greenfield investment incurs a fixed plant setup cost, whereas the foreign firm obtains only a share of the joint profit from a cross‐border merger under the restriction of the FDI policy. This trade‐off is affected by market demand, cost differential, and market competition, among other things. The host country's government chooses its FDI policy to affect (or alter) the multinational's entry mode to achieve the maximum social welfare for the domestic country. We characterize the conditions shaping the optimal FDI policy and offer intuitions on FDI patterns in developing and developed countries.     

Tax Policies,Regional Trade Agreements and Foreign Direct Investment: A Welfare Analysis

In this paper, we develop a partial equilibrium three‐country model to examine the relationship between regional trade agreements (RTAs) and foreign direct investment (FDI) in an environment with double taxation. Our analysis shows that FDI is welfare‐improving for at least one or both of the two regional countries if wage asymmetry is significantly large. FDI and an RTA are also welfare‐improving for the high‐wage country and the region if the wage differential is not small. We also examine the role of repatriation taxes in affecting the determination of firm location under an RTA. Our results suggest that the signing of an RTA may induce relocation from the high‐wage country to the low‐wage country unless an increase in the repatriation tax rate also occurs.     

Origin of FDI and Intra‐Industry Domestic Spillovers: The Case of Greek and European FDI in Bulgaria

This paper uses firm‐level data to assess the horizontal impact of foreign firm ownership on domestic productivity in Bulgaria. We identify a theoretical tradeoff between technological distance (of domestic versus foreign firms) and internalization capacity (of spillovers) and examine the extent to which this is reflected in the impact on the domestic economy of different types and origins of FDI. Emphasis is placed upon the effects of Greek FDI, which is known to be of a distinctively “regional” character. We find that Greek FDI produces significantly larger positive spillovers, which appear more suitable for the Bulgarian context of transition and economic restructuring. We also unveil some notable “hysteresis” and “technology bias” effects for FDI spillovers of all origins, as well as some country‐specific ownership‐structure and threshold effects.     

Market Entry Regulation and International Competition*

We analyze a non‐cooperative two‐country game where each government decides whether to allow free market entry of firms or to regulate market access. We show that a Pareto‐efficient allocation may result in equilibrium. In particular, if the cost difference between home and foreign production is “significant,” production will be located in the cost‐efficient country exclusively; and if this cost difference is even “substantial,” the induced allocation is also Pareto efficient. Only if the cost difference is “insignificant,” production may take place in both countries and the allocation is inefficient.     

Evaluating Russia’s trade patterns

This article offers empirical evidence on the major trends in the nature of Russia’s trade and on the determinants of the different types of trade: horizontal intra-industry trade (HIIT), vertical intra-industry trade (VIIT) and inter-industry trade (INT). The estimation results of gravity-type log-linear models suggest that the combined economic size of Russia and the trading partner has a positive effect, while the distance between the two countries has a negative effect for all types of trade. They also suggest that FDI has a significant effect on all types of trade; however, the effect varies according to whether the partner country is a member of the CIS/CU or not, and whether the FDI is outward or inward.     

“GATT‐think” with Asymmetric Countries*

We argue that a trade agreement which conforms to GATT’s reciprocity rule benefits the (stronger) less trade‐dependent country at the expense of the (weaker) more trade‐dependent country. Reciprocity is so unfavorable to the weaker country that it may be worse off under reciprocity than under the Nash‐ bargaining solution, a “power‐based” approach to trade negotiations that reflects power asymmetries among trading partners. Our results question Bagwell and Staiger’s (1999 , 2000 ) view of reciprocity as a rule that “serves to mitigate the influence of power asymmetries on negotiated outcomes.”     

Foreign direct investment and growth in India: a cointegration approach

The two-way link between foreign direct investment and growth for India is explored using a structural cointegration model with vector error correction mechanism. The existence of two cointegrating vectors between GDP, FDI, the unit labour cost and the share of import duty in tax revenue is found, which captures the long run relationship between FDI and GDP. A parsimonious vector error correction model (VECM) is then estimated to find the short run dynamics of FDI and growth. Our VECM model reveals three important features: (a) GDP in India is not Granger caused by FDI; the causality runs more from GDP to FDI; (b) trade liberalization policy of the Indian government had some positive short run impact on the FDI flow; and (c) FDI tends to lower the unit labour cost suggesting that FDI in India is labour displacing.     

制度距离、相邻效应与双边贸易--基于“一带一路”国家空间面板模型的实证分析

制度在双边贸易中具有举足轻重的作用。文章首次将相邻效应引入传统的制度与贸易关系的分析框架,运用空间面板模型深入考察了制度距离、相邻效应对中国与“一带一路”国家双边贸易的影响。结果表明,中国与“一带一路”沿线国家之间在文化、法律、宏观经济制度以及微观经济制度方面的差异显著抑制了双边进出口贸易的发展,并且这种抑制作用在长期更为显著。进一步引入相邻效应的分析表明,中国与“一带一路”沿线国家之间的双边贸易受到中国与沿线国家邻国之间贸易的制约,即相邻效应表现为竞争关系,并且无论是针对进口贸易还是出口贸易而言,中国与沿线国家之间的制度距离均强化了相邻效应的“竞争”作用,但上述作用在不同地区具有显著差异。因此,在推进“一带一路”战略时,中国需要考虑制定相关的配套政策来平衡中国与“一带一路”国家,特别是与这些两两相邻国家之间的双边贸易利益,以促进中国与各国双边贸易关系的良性发展。     

中国服务业FDI与服务贸易进口的替代关系

分析了我国服务业FDI的利用现状和服务贸易进口现状。运用需求理论选择研究变量,采用1997—2011年的时间数据,通过进行协整检验、构建脉冲响应函数和进行方差分解分析,对服务业FDI与服务贸易进口的替代关系进行了分析。结果显示:服务业FDI与服务贸易进口之间存在长期均衡关系;长期内,服务业FDI与服务贸易进口之间存在替代关系,且服务业FDI对服务贸易进口的贡献率最大;货物贸易进口与服务贸易进口之间存在互补关系,且货物贸易进口对服务贸易进口的贡献率较小。     

Evidence on corruption as an incentive for foreign direct investment

This paper assesses the relationship between corruption and inward foreign direct investment (FDI). Previous research has presumed that corruption directly enters the cost function of multinationals, suggesting a negative relationship between corruption and FDI. For a sample of 73 developed and less developed countries and the time period 1995–1999, we find a clear positive relationship between corruption and FDI. Corruption is thus a stimulus for FDI.     

Migrant networks and foreign direct investment

Although there exists a sizeable literature documenting the importance of ethnic networks for international trade, little attention has been devoted to studying the effects of migrants on foreign direct investment (FDI). The presence of migrants can stimulate FDI by promoting information flows across international borders and by serving as a contract enforcement mechanism. This paper investigates the link between the presence of migrants in the US and US FDI in the migrants' countries of origin, taking into account the potential endogeneity concerns. The results suggest that US FDI abroad is positively correlated with the presence of migrants from the host country. The data further indicate that the relationship between FDI and migration is stronger for migrants with tertiary education.     

The impact of trade openness on technical efficiency in the agricultural sector of the European Union

The aim of this study is to analyse the impact of trade openness on technical efficiency of the European Union’s (EU) agricultural sector. There are no systematic theories linking trade policy to technical efficiency; hence, the relation between trade liberalization and technical efficiency is fundamentally ambiguous. Stochastic frontier analysis is used to model the relationship between EU’s production resources and agricultural output, as well as the importance of trade openness on technical efficiency of a country. The data for 16 of the 28 EU members were available for the period 1980–2007 including land, capital, fertilizer, labour, agricultural GDP, foreign direct investments (FDI), exports and import data. Results indicate that trade openness has an immediate, negative impact on efficiency in the EU agricultural sector. Over time, however, trade openness does increase efficiency. The FDI outflows increase efficiency. This suggests that an initial reduction in capital supply forces EU nations to utilize other factor inputs more efficiently. However, there is the unexamined potential that over time the depletion of capital results in a decrease in efficiency. Finally, formerly communist member-countries of the EU are found to have the lowest technical efficiency scores whereas Southern European nations have the highest efficiency.     

Developing Country Second‐Mover Advantage in Competition Over Environmental Standards and Taxes

We show that, in competition between a developed country and a developing country over environmental standards and taxes, the developing country may have a “second‐mover advantage.” In our model, firms do not unanimously prefer lower environmental standard levels. We introduce this feature to an otherwise familiar model of fiscal competition. Four distinct outcomes can be characterized by varying the marginal cost to firms of an environmental externality: (1) the outcome may be efficient; (2) the developing country may be a “pollution haven”—a place to escape excessively high environmental standards in the developed country; (3) the developing country may “undercut” the developed country and attract all firms; (4) the developed country may be a pollution haven.     

Public infrastructure for production and international trade in a small open economy: a dynamic analysis

This paper develops a dynamic trade model with a stock of public infrastructure, which has a property of “unpaid factor of production”. We show that a country with a smaller (larger) labor endowment tends to become an exporter of a good whose productivity is more (less) sensitive to the stock of public infrastructure. We also show that after the opening of trade, the labor-scarce country becomes unambiguously better off but the labor-abundant country may become worse off. Overall, these results contrasts with those obtained in the case of public intermediate goods with a “creation of atmosphere” property.     

Common Ground Between Free‐Traders and Environmentalists

We use a North–South model with property right differences and resource dynamics to study the effects of trade on resource use and welfare. Autarky is likely to Pareto‐dominate free trade in the long run when the environment is quite fragile, and the result is reversed when the environment is quite resilient. Trade may cause an environmentally poor country to “drag down” its richer trading partner, when they degrade their stocks which would be preserved under autarky. It may enable the environmentally richer country to “pull up” its partner, when they preserve their stocks which would be degraded under autarky.     

Trade and Rural-Urban Income Inequality: Evidence from China

Using the provincial panel data from 1978 to 2007, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the relationship between international trade and rural-urban income inequality in China. The results show that international trade has a fundamental impact on rural-urban income inequality. For the whole country, the development of international trade from 1978 to 2007 enlarged the rural-urban income gap. During the three different periods (defined in section 3.3), the impact was also noticeable in terms of extent, direction and significance respectively at the national and regional levels. During the three periods, the relationship has an inverted “U” shape for China as a whole, central China and western China, but for eastern China the relationship has a “U” shape. At the same time, exports and imports have different influences on the rural-urban income gap in China, the influences were also different across regions; and the imports has had a more significant influence on these regions than exports has had.     

International migration,foreign direct investment,and development stage in developing economies

The existing empirical results on the relationship between FDI and migration are rather mixed. This study reevaluates, both theoretically and empirically, how inward FDI relates to emigration in developing countries. Our model illustrates that the relationship between inward FDI and emigration flows depends on the development stage of a developing country, that is, there is a positive association between inward FDI and emigration flows for relatively less‐developed countries but a negative association between these two variables for relatively developed countries. We confirm the empirical validity of our model prediction using the panel data of 21 OECD and 51 non‐OECD countries during the period from 2003 to 2012. Our results argue that as economic development proceeds in a developing country, the home effect of inward FDI associated with intensified labor demand would dominate the linkage effect that induces the brain drain problem through enhancing the socioeconomic ties with migrant networks.     

Trade costs and foreign direct investment

This paper focuses on an apparent conflict between the theory of foreign direct investment (FDI) and recent trends in the globalized world. The bulk of FDI is horizontal rather than vertical, and standard theory predicts that horizontal FDI is discouraged when trade costs fall. This seems to conflict with the experience of the 1990s, when trade liberalisation and technological change led to dramatic reductions in trade costs yet FDI grew much faster than trade. Two possible resolutions to this paradox are explored. First, horizontal FDI in trading blocs is encouraged by intra-bloc trade liberalisation, because foreign firms establish plants in one country as export platforms to serve the bloc as a whole. Second, cross-border mergers, quantitatively more important than greenfield FDI, are encouraged rather than discouraged by falling trade costs.     

Trade balance dynamics and exchange rates: In search of the J‐curve using a structural gravity approach

This paper uses a structural gravity approach, specifying currency movements as trade cost component to derive an empirical trade balance model, which incorporates multilateral resistance terms and accounts for the cross‐country variation in the exchange rate pass‐through into import and export prices. The model is estimated using quarterly bilateral trade flows between 47 countries over the period 2010Q1 to 2017Q2, disaggregated into 97 commodity groups. Our results support the existence of an “aggregate” J‐curve, pooled over commodity groups; at the same time they point to considerable heterogeneity in the trade balance dynamics across industries below the surface of aggregate data.