Trade in final goods and the impact of innovation

We propose a method for estimating the slope parameter in an interactive effects panel data model with endogenous loadings and factors, and endogenous regressors.     

Trade and productivity: an industry perspective

We use a sample of 14 OECD countries and 15 manufacturing industries to test for the effect of trade on productivity. Endogeneity concerns are accounted for using the geographical component of trade as instrument as suggested by Frankel and Romer (Am Econ Rev 89(3):279–399, 1999). We find that trade, measured in terms of the export ratio, increases productivity, even if country-fixed effects such as the quality of institutions are controlled for, though results are less robust for imports. Estimates at the aggregate manufacturing level turn out much larger, emphasizing the role of inter-industry spillovers.

Improving the estimation of total factor productivity growth: capital operating time in a latent variable approach

Measuring labor and capital services accurately is essential to obtaining reliable estimates of production functions and total factor productivity (TFP) growth. Using data on the operating time of capital, a series that exists for the French business sector, greatly improves the measurement of effective capital services in production. The ensuing estimation results are consistent with Cobb–Douglas technology under constant returns to scale, with the factor elasticities not statistically different from their income shares. In the same framework, TFP growth is estimated as a latent variable and found to be less volatile than accounting residuals, negatively correlated with employment, and free of cyclicality. It is statistically best estimated as a first-order autoregressive process, with an autoregressive coefficient of 0.95. Total factor productivity growth was estimated to have declined steadily between the mid-1970s and mid-1990s, but the rate of decline has diminished since then.     

R&D spillovers, information technology and telecommunications, and productivity in ASIA and the OECD

This paper examines the role research and development (R&D) plays in technology progress for a sample of OECD and Asian economies from 1980 to 1995. An empirical model is estimated which relates total factor productivity to domestic and foreign R&D activity, trade, and information technology and telecommunications (ITT). Model estimates confirm a positive relationship between national productivity and R&D activity exists in the long run. Further, the benefits of R&D can spillover countries through trade, in particular, trade in ITT equipment.     

Trade Openness,Structural Change and Total Factor Productivity

The impact of trade openness on growth of total factor productivity (TFP) is investigated. Given the differences in tradability of goods across sectors as well as the ongoing structural change, we examine whether trade openness has had a differential impact on TFP growth of the three main sectors of an economy. While the positive impact of openness on TFP growth for the aggregate economy is confirmed, openness has had no appreciable impact on the growth of TFP in the agricultural and industrial sectors. We find that the positive effect of openness on TFP growth for the economy as a whole was mostly due to the positive relationship between the two variables for the services sector. Further, we conclude that the lack of a general consensus in past studies could be due to their neglect of structural change and temporal factors when analyzing the trade-TFP nexus.     

Trade reorientation and post-reform productivity growth in Bulgarian enterprises

This paper analyzes the importance of integration into world markets following the collapse of central planning in explaining the productivity growth performance of Bulgarian firms. Using a large panel data set on 1,300 manufacturing firms for 13 quarters, we find that a shift towards sourcing from - and exporting to - OECD markets is a significant factor explaining firm-level total factor productivity growth.     

The business environment and Moroccan firm productivity

The paper focuses on the role of the business environment in understanding differences in the total factor productivity of Moroccan firms. The business environment is captured by measures which include the investment climate in which firms operate, i.e. access to credit, regulatory and institutional environment and infrastructure. The evidence on the relationship between credit and productivity is strongly indicative of credit resources misallocation in Morocco. We also find that, heavier bureaucracy and differences in regulations appear to have a negative effect on firm productivity. This last result is particularly relevant for small firms, and/or those that do not export and/or those with no access to foreign capital.     

The sources of total factor productivity growth: Evidence from Canadian data

A dynamic general equilibrium model is constructed and used to identify sources of total factor productivity growth in Canada and to quantify their importance. The model also provides procedures for constructing measures of technological progress. We find that periods of low productivity growth correspond to periods of high growth in investment-specific technology (IST) or high rates of technology embodiment. For example, the growth rate of IST was relatively high between 1974 and 1996. The higher growth rate of IST during this period should have increased the rate of productivity growth by an estimated 0.29 percentage points, ceteris paribus. Yet, productivity growth slowed. Why?     

Road to productivity: Effects of roads on total factor productivity in Indian manufacturing

A denser road network lowers transport costs and stimulates manufacturing total factor productivity (TFP). The placement of roads, however, is likely to be non-random. For identification, we exploit cross-state variation in the strength of centre-state partisan alignment that asymmetrically affects road building in aligned states. Using panel data on manufacturing establishments in India from 1998 to 2012, we find that, a 1% increase in road density raises value-added TFP by about 0.25%, on average. A closer examination reveals that the effect varies by plant characteristics and road type. Younger establishments are more likely to gain from a denser road network with highways playing a prominent role. The results are robust to imperfections in the instrument and to other sensitivity checks.     

Environmental productivity and Kuznets curve in India

As a result of India's extremely rapid economic growth, the scale and seriousness of environmental problems are no longer in doubt. Whether pollution abatement technologies are utilized more efficiently is crucial in the analysis of environmental management because it influences the cost of alternative production and pollution abatement technologies. In this study, we use state-level industry data of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, and suspended particular matter over the period 1991-2003. Employing recently developed productivity measurement technique, we show that overall environmental productivities decrease over time in India. Furthermore, we analyze the determinants of environmental productivities and find environmental Kuznets curve type relationship existences between environmental productivity and income. Panel analysis results show that the scale effect dominates over the technique effect. Therefore, a combined effect of income on environmental productivity is negative.     

The distributional effects of selection and capital accumulation on firm productivity under imperfect capital markets

In this evolutionary model, random shocks create differences in the rate of return on capital, while individual saving and investment behavior can reduce these differences over time. Firms with either low total factor productivity (TFP) or a low average return on capital are selected for exit, and new firms enter to take their place. As would be expected, a higher turnover rate improves TFP and reduces its variation. While we show that a higher turnover rate would result in a more positively skewed TFP distribution if exit selection is based directly upon TFP, we find that when we select firms for exit based on their average product of capital, the marginal impact of a higher turnover rate is to more negatively skew the TFP distribution. Overall, our simulations highlight the importance of considering the role selection may play in shaping the distribution of productivity when econometricians seek estimates of firm inefficiency.

Investment climate and firm productivity: an application to Vietnamese manufacturing firms

The fundamental aspect of a national competitive advantage is a good investment climate. Understanding the role of the investment climate in generating firm productivity has received extensive attention by policymakers and economists in many countries. The article studies the effect of different dimensions of the investment climate on firm productivity. Using a large dataset of Vietnamese manufacturing firms, the article finds that deficiencies in the investment climate are prejudicial to firm productivity and competition. Furthermore, in examining the effect of corruption in association with the quality of the business environment, the study also investigates the possibility that corruption may compensate firms for a bad investment climate or at least may neutralize the negative impact of inefficient government regulations. In other words, corruption acts as ‘speed money’ to improve the efficacy of the provision of public services or provides leeway for entrepreneurs to bypass the inefficient regulations. This situation, however, is extremely harmful to the economy in the long run because it distorts the market and erodes the incentives for productive investments. Developing countries therefore need to put much more effort into institutional reforms, especially fighting corruption and efficiency in the provision of public goods and services.     

Revisiting the threshold effect of remittances on total factor productivity growth in South Asia: a study of Bangladesh and India

Both Bangladesh and India are among the top recipient of remittances in absolute terms. However, in relative terms – remittances as a per cent of GDP – the two countries stand at 6.1% and 2.8%, respectively, well below the levels of the top 10 recipients. In this article, we explore the effect of remittances on the total factor productivity (TFP) growth considering Bangladesh and India, as reference countries over the periods 1980–2012 and 1977–2012, respectively. We examine the presence of a long-run association between remittances and TFP using a number of tests. The results indicate that remittances have threshold effects on TFP growth in both countries. Despite the two countries receiving substantial amount of remittances, we note that Bangladesh has a U-shaped relationship whereas India has an inverted U-shaped relationship with TFP growth. For Bangladesh, a minimum threshold of remittances (% GDP) is 5.3% and for India, a tipping point of remittances (% GDP) is at 1.8%. The causality tests confirm a bidirectional effect, which implies that remittances and TFP growth are mutually reinforcing. Interestingly, while the two economies have similar remittances impact in regards to causality, the study highlights two different tipping points of remittances.     

Impact of R&D expenditures,rainfall and temperature variations in agricultural productivity: empirical evidence from Bangladesh

ABSTRACT

This study aims to investigate dynamic relationships between research and development (R&D) expenditure, climate change (measured by annual rainfall and temperature variations), human capital (proxied by literacy) and total factor productivity (TFP) growth in Bangladesh agriculture. Pesaran’s Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator is used to a unique panel data of 17 regions of Bangladesh covering a 61-year period (1948–2008). In addition, the panel vector autoregression (PVAR) model is also applied to trace the responsiveness of TFP from a shock to R&D, extension services, and literacy rate. Results reveal that R&D has an insignificant impact on TFP in the short-run, while it has a significant positive impact in the long-run. The contributions of climate variables (i.e., rainfall and temperature variations) are highly significant and negative in the long run. The literacy rate is found to have a significant positive impact on TFP as expected. These results suggest that agricultural R&D investment and human capital could play an important role to ameliorate the adverse effects of climate change in the agricultural sector of Bangladesh.     

'Total factor productivity vs. realism' revisited: the case of the South Korean steel industry

This paper presents key features of the development of the SouthKorean steel industry through the critical examination of anarticle by Truett and Truett. Despite their claim to exhibit‘realism’ by use of a translog cost function, theirmethodology has strong affinities with the methods of measuringtotal factor productivity growth, which have long been knownas invalid but continue to be applied not least to the experienceof East Asian countries. It will be argued that the theoreticaland empirical flaws involved with these methods invalidate theirresults and corresponding policy implications. Above all, byshowing that the assumptions for their calculation do not holdin terms of the economic conditions of the industry, the paperpoints to a different understanding of ‘realism’than that conceived by and for their study.     

外包与生产率:基于中国工业行业物品外包与服务外包的比较分析

本文运用我国1997年与2002年的投入产出表分别计算了以我国为本位的工业行业物品外包、服务外包比率,并对两种外包的行业生产率效应进行实证检验和比较分析。结果显示:物品外包、服务外包的发展均有效的提升了我国工业行业生产率水平,但服务外包对工业行业生产率的促进效应要远远大于物品外包;当考虑行业要素密集度差异时,研究发现无论是物品外包还是服务外包在资本相对密集的行业要比劳动密集型行业的生产率效应更强,同时这种行业差异在服务外包中更为显著。最后,在本文研究的基础上指出了相关研究进一步深入的方向。     

Trade prices and supply in the UK economy

Current account imbalances are a major source of instability in the world monetary and trading system. Measures to correct these imbalances have largely involved adjustments to exchange rates. In the international trade literature, when the current account is in deficit, the Marshall-Lerner condition is sufficient for a successful devaluation. However, this partial equilibrium condition — apart from being based on the assumption that supply elasticities are infinite — abstracts from how the domestic economy responds to the change in relative prices. In this paper we develop a model of price and output determination in an open economy with imperpectly competitive markets, and draw a distinction between goods which are exported and those which are supplied to the domestic market. This means that we have to determine jointly both export prices and the domestic price of house sales. We show that as long as there is no money illusion in the labour market a fall in the nominal exchange rate raises domestic and export prices proportionally and leaves trade volumes unaffected. However, shifts in domestic absorption relative to overseas demand — by changing relative prices — cause shifts in the relative supply of exports and domestically sold goods and affect the trade balance. Thus fiscal and monetary measures directed towards reducing domestic absorption are more likely to be successful in correcting current account imbalances than exchange rate depreciation.     

Trade liberalization and the inter-industry wage premia: the missingf role of productivity

The literature concerning the effect of tariffs on the inter-industry wage premium has not addressed the role of total factor productivity (TFP) in determining both the wage premium and tariffs. This omission not only overlooks an important determinant of wage premium but also invalidates the use of the pre-reform tariff level as an instrument for the change in tariffs. Based on an analysis of Colombian data, I find that including TFP in the estimated model of the effects of tariffs on the wage premium leads to a 41% decrease in the effect of tariffs on the inter-industry wage premium relative to the model that omits TFP. More specifically, a 10 percentage point decrease in tariffs reduces the wage premium by 1.01%, whereas a 10% increase in TFP raise wage premium by 1.6%. This finding suggests the importance of using policies that boost productivity to offset the effect of tariffs on the wage premium.     

The impact of foreign direct investment on productivity: New evidence for developing countries

We provide new empirical evidence on the relationship between inward foreign direct investment (FDI) and total factor productivity (TFP) growth using cross-country data for 51 developing countries over the period 1984–2010. Our results suggest a weak direct effect of FDI on TFP growth but, after accounting for the roles of human capital and institutions as contingencies in the FDI-TFP growth relationship, we find a robust FDI-induced productivity growth response dependent on these ‘absorptive capacities’. However, the relevance of the human capital contingency effect diminishes when the effect of institutions is also considered, which suggests that improving institutions is relatively more important than human capital development for developing countries to realise productivity gains from FDI.