徐州都市圈城市体系结构分析

基于2005年统计数据,运用分形理论及GIS技术,从规模结构、空间结构、职能结构三方面,对徐州都市圈城市体系的结构进行分析。结果表明:徐州都市圈城市规模等级结构明显,城市首位度高,小城市发展滞后;城镇密度分布呈带状延伸的特征,空间结构呈较典型的港城"双核结构";城市职能结构单一,类型趋同,资源型城市比重大,属于工矿型城镇体系。最后提出优化徐州都市圈城市体系结构的对策和建议。     

京津冀都市区统计与当前城市统计的比较研究

近年来,随着京津冀地区城市化进程的快速推进,中心城区不断向外扩张,加上周边农村地区的发展,城乡之间的经济与社会联系加强,都市区逐渐形成并发展。对京津冀都市区发展状况进行分析,在此基础上将都市区统计和当前城市统计进行对比,发现都市区是人口和经济活动的主要聚集地,是真正具备城市功能的地域;都市区代表了区域内更高的产业结构和发展水平;都市区统计能够更好地反映城市化快速发展的状况。最后总结了中国建立规范的都市区统计制度的必要性和迫切性,并从都市区的视角提出了促进京津冀区域内产业协调发展和统筹城乡发展的策略建议。     

Community income distributions in a metropolitan area

We extend de Bartolome and Ross [C.A.M. de Bartolome, S.L. Ross, Equilibrium with local governments and commuting: Income sorting vs. income mixing, Journal of Urban Economics 54 (2003) 1–20] to the case when the income distribution in the metropolitan area is a continuous distribution. In particular, we consider a circular central city surrounded by a suburban community. All households must commute to the metropolitan center and public service levels differ in the two jurisdictions. There is intra-jurisdictional and inter-jurisdictional capitalization. Our model has an equilibrium in which the income distributions of the central city and of the suburban community do overlap. Our finding contrasts with the traditional finding of Alonso–Mills–Muth-type models of spatial sorting and of Tiebout-type models of fiscal sorting, both of which have been shown to predict that the income distributions of the two communities do not overlap. In addition, the model explains the fixedness in jurisdictional boundaries.     

Household location in a linear multi-center metropolitan area

The application of monocentric models of residential location to the analysis of metropolitan areas with more than one center of economic activity, produces a distorted view of the spatial distribution of urban variables such as land values, housing prices, etc. This distortion results from the fact that monocentric models tend to underestimate the values of these variables in areas lying between the centers, and yield wider residential areas toward the outskirts of the city. In this paper, a model of household location is developed, which attempts to correct this distortion by simultaneously considering the urban centers during the residential location process.     

Job creation and housing construction: Constraints on metropolitan area employment growth

Differences in the supply of housing generate substantial variation in house prices across the United States. Because house prices influence migration, the elasticity of housing supply also has an important impact on local labor markets. I assemble evidence on housing supply regulations and examine their effect on metropolitan area housing and labor market dynamics. Locations with relatively few barriers to construction experience more residential construction and smaller increases in house prices in response to an increase in housing demand. Furthermore, housing supply constraints alter local employment and wage dynamics in locations where the degree of regulation is most severe.     

On the analysis of multivariate growth curves

Growth curve data arise when repeated measurements are observed on a number of individuals with an ordered dimension for occasions. Such data appear frequently in almost all fields in which statistical models are used, for instance in medicine, agriculture and engineering. In medicine, for example, more than one variable is often measured on each occasion. However, analyses are usually based on exploration of repeated measurements of only one variable. The consequence is that the information contained in the between-variables correlation structure will be discarded.  In this study we propose a multivariate model based on the random coefficient regression model for the analysis of growth curve data. Closed-form expressions for the model parameters are derived under the maximum likelihood (ML) and the restricted maximum likelihood (REML) framework. It is shown that in certain situations estimated variances of growth curve parameters are greater for REML. Also a method is proposed for testing general linear hypotheses. One numerical example is provided to illustrate the methods discussed. Received: 22 February 1999     

Dynamics of metropolitan growth and unemployment

The author presents a demand-oriented model of metropolitan growth with explicit regard to urban unemployment and spatial growth. The long-term behavior of several factors, including population, is examined in response to exogenous demand growth for output     

An empirical model of residential location and the journey-to-work in a metropolitan area

In this paper we present and estimate a single equation model designed to explain the residential location behaviour of individuals living in a multi-centered metropolitan area. We test the model for heads of households and non-heads of households separately, as well as for the total working population, in order to isolate differences in commuting behaviour between primary and secondary wage earners. The relationships are estimated from 1971 Census, cross-section data using least squares multiple regression. The data pertain to the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) and sixty-three designated zones therein.The estimation results reveal that although location-rents prove to be significant in the individual's residential location decision-making process, their effect was limited to discouraging those employed in or near the central business district (CBD) from living close to work. The existence of secondary employment centres did not have the same significant effect in bidding up location-rents. Furthermore, contrary to the standard theory, the results suggest that residential location decisions are made in response to the availability of collective residential opportunities and workers' preferences for specific residential attributes rather than by reference to the “transportation cost—housing cost” trade-off. Among the socio-economic variables, age of the worker is found to be most significant in affecting journey-to-work distance. The results provide some evidence that non-heads are, to a certain extent, more sensitive to urban structural constraints in their commuting behaviour.     

北京大都市住宅郊区化的基本特征与对策

本文在分析 1992— 2 0 0 0年北京地区住宅用地统计资料的基础上 ,针对北京日益突出的住宅郊区化现状 ,找出其扩展的规律 ,预测近 2 0年的发展趋势 ,最后提出合理引导城市郊区化的措施及对北京城市建设的建议。     

Wavelet analysis of change-points in a non-parametric regression with heteroscedastic variance

In this paper we develop wavelet methods for detecting and estimating jumps and cusps in the mean function of a non-parametric regression model. An important characteristic of the model considered here is that it allows for conditional heteroscedastic variance, a feature frequently encountered with economic and financial data. Wavelet analysis of change-points in this model has been considered in a limited way in a recent study by Chen et al. (2008) with a focus on jumps only. One problem with the aforementioned paper is that the test statistic developed there has an extreme value null limit distribution. The results of other studies have shown that the rate of convergence to the extreme value distribution is usually very slow, and critical values derived from this distribution tend to be much larger than the true ones. Here, we develop a new test and show that the test statistic has a convenient null limit N(0,1) distribution. This feature gives the proposed approach an appealing advantage over the existing approach. Another attractive feature of our results is that the asymptotic theory developed here holds for both jumps and cusps. Implementation of the proposed method for multiple jumps and cusps is also examined. The results from a simulation study show that the new test has excellent power and the estimators developed also yield very accurate estimates of the positions of the discontinuities.     

区域规划与大都市地区的公共服务供给——以美国明尼苏达州双城大都市区为例

区域规划是大都市地区公共服务供给的重要工具。区域规划需要法律、制度化的政治和财政为基础,其制度化程度越高,公共服务的效率就越高。美国双城地区的大都市理事会,作为有效区域规划机构的典型,其发展证明了州政府是区域规划机构有效运行、大都市区公共服务有效供给的关键因素。     

宁国巨变——写在6年后重访宁国之际

当确定用<宁国巨变>来作我们这篇文章的标题时,我们心感有点自不量力.因为这样评语式又肯定性的标题.应该出自大人物之手或之口才合适,可我们琢磨来琢磨去,脑子里总难于寻找到更为合适的词汇来表述宁国今天的发展变化.因而.我们只能将自己的所见、所闻、所思跃然于本文的字里行间.宁国是否巨变,请读者自己评说.     

城市功能地域概念及其在规划中的应用

从提出背景、空间组织、空间形态与结构、城市功能特征等四个方面对城市功能地域的概念进行了辨识,分析了都市区、大都市带、都市圈、城市群、经济圈等概念,对城市功能地域发生作用的内部机理和规划中要解决的问题进行了分析,并对城市功能地域的概念在城市规划中的应用提出了建议。     

上海中心城区职能转移与城市空间结构优化

城市职能的调整与变化往往引起城市空间结构的重新整合 ,文章通过对上海中心城区职能转移过程与特征的分析 ,揭示了上海中心城区职能转移引起了上海城市空间结构的优化。     

都市型农业及其发展模式

20世纪90年代以来在我国大城市地区兴起的都市型农业,是保持城市活力与特色的重要产业,也是农业与城市有机结合的理论与实践成果.多种模式的都市型农业对于保持城市个性具有重要作用,都市型农业的发展需要注意解决一些特殊的经济社会问题.     

我国城市经济增长效率与城市化效率比较分析

利用数据包络分析的曼奎斯特指数方法测算了2000-2008年我国248个城市的经济增长效率和城市化效率,比较分析了不同区域、不同等级城市的效率表现。研究发现,我国城市经济增长效率持续提高,但城市化长期处于低效率状态,严重滞后于经济增长;地级市两种效率的初始领先地位已逐渐被直辖市所取代;东部地区城市的效率表现优于其他地区,但不同等级城市之间差异较大,城市化严重滞后和轻微滞后的城市数量都比较多。认为通过合理的空间规划和产业引导,提高城市化效率、促进城市化与国民经济增长协调发展,是下一阶段城市发展要解决的关键问题。     

城市新区规划仿真模型系统分析方法研究

通过应用系统动力学建立城市新区规划系统仿真模型,已成为新区规划的一种重要手段。从分析构建仿真模型过程中通常所采用的系统分析方法入手,阐明了该方法的一些不足之处,提出了一种改进型的分析方法,即系统反馈环分析方法,探讨了该方法的机理和可行性,并结合天津滨海新区空港加工区的案例,论述了该方法对仿真模型系统结构和行为模式的分析过程。     

城市水土流失及其防治对策

本文阐述了城市水土流失的概念 ,论述了城市水土流失的现状及特点 ;分析了城市水土流失的成因及其对城市排水和生态环境造成的危害 ,并提出了城市水土流失的防治对策。