Intermediation costs and capital flows

In this paper, we modify the standard neoclassical model by incorporating financial intermediation in order to deliver returns consistent with the observation that capital primarily flows to middle income countries. We build a static contracting framework where costly intermediation together with an adverse selection problem have quantitatively important effects on capital flows. When intermediation costs are ignored, the model behaves like the neoclassical model in terms of capital returns. However, when intermediation costs are considered, returns to capital in middle income countries could exceed those in poor and rich countries—high costs of intermediation cause poor countries to concentrate their investments in projects with low returns, while the standard neoclassical effect lowers returns in capital-rich countries. When we embed the return function from the static analysis in a two-country dynamic model, there is capital outflow from a poor country that removes capital controls and becomes open. Even though the closed economy dominates in terms of capital employed in production, it is the open economy that dominates in terms of income, consumption and welfare.     

Human capital accumulation: Evidence from immigrants in low-income countries

This paper offers new evidence on the theory of human capital accumulation. The current findings in developed countries have documented that immigrants' earnings growth exceeds that of natives and that immigrants upgrade their occupations over time. Three possible explanations for these observations are suggested in the literature: 1) immigrants accumulate more human capital than natives, 2) immigrants are not able to fully transfer their skills, so over time, they restore the value of source-country human capital, and 3) immigrants are more productive than natives because they are positively selected on ability. This study investigates the labor market outcomes of immigrants in low-income countries and finds that immigrants earn more than comparable natives and work in better-paid occupations. Over time the gap in earnings and occupational distribution between immigrants and natives narrows. This observation is more consistent with the predictions of human capital accumulation theory than with skill transferability and selection theories.     

THE TREATMENT OF EDUCATION IN NATIONAL ACCOUNTING1

It is argued that the conventions of an accounting system, such as the S.N.A., are a matter of convenience. The treatment of education as a current expenditure, instead of as a form of capital formation, derives from the Keynesian system, and is not appropriate for dynamic problems of developing countries, where weaknesses in education are often the main “bottleneck” in the process of development. In such countries, expenditure on education clearly yields its benefits mainly in the longer run. To treat this as a consumption item biases policy in the direction of using financial resources for fixed capital rather than human investment, and may cause aid agencies to penalize countries which expand their educational systems. A similar problem arises on other expenditures such as health, but the case for treating them as investment is not so strong. To treat educational expenditure as part of capital formation logically requires two major changes. First education needs to be removed from private and public consumption, and for this purpose a fairly broad definition of what is education should be used. Secondly, the stock of educational capital should be valued. The valuation problems are, however, severe. Variations in cost components make historic cost of little value as a yardstick, and calculations of future returns are fraught with difficulties. Using replacement costs, which seems the best method, involves the construction of education profiles in physical terms which can then be valued by present or by standardised costs. The depreciation of human capital through mortality and retirement can be allowed for by applying national average rates to these physical profiles. Switching educational expenditure from current to capital accounts involves no serious practical problem. However, although there should logically be an allowance for depreciation on human capital, this is not recommended; single monetary measures of educational stock are not very meaningful, and this would involve changing the definition of “net” aggregates. Development of statistics of educational stocks and flows in physical terms—the beginnings of “demographic accounting” fully integrated with the rest of national accounting—is strongly advocated.     

职业分层、中产阶级与收入分配

社会职业不仅反映着人们在社会、经济生活中所处的分工角色,它也带来了人们在收入水平和社会经济地位方面的差距和不同,在各种职业背后存在着以生产条件的占有关系为依据的社会生产关系。社会不可能通过消除普通生产劳动行业和职业,让人们都进入"中等收入"职业。因此,要缩小社会收入分配领域的巨大差距,必须改变现有的分配结构,在初次分配领域,即物质生产领域,进行分配制度的改革,增加普通劳动者的收入,使普通劳动者能够通过勤奋劳动达到"中等收入"水平,这才是在社会主义制度下"扩大中等收入者群体"的正确途径。所谓"人力资本"的收益不过是在雇佣劳动制度的生产方式下,部分人能以物质生产乃至资本主义竞争所必需的知识为条件,进入社会生产关系中具有一定社会经济地位的职业,在这种职业上他们利用社会生产关系所赋予的对生产与竞争能力的控制,从社会剩余产品中占有一定份额。因此,"人力资本"所有者的收入并不是所谓"人力资本"的创造,而是由社会生产关系所决定的收入分配形式。     

Human capital,age structure and growth fluctuations

This article assesses the empirical relationship between per capita income growth fluctuations and the age-structured human capital variations across four groups of geographically clustered developed and developing countries from spatial perspective. We estimate a spatial Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model of income dynamics where the distance between countries is defined on relational space based on their similarity in appropriation tendency of human capital in the production processes. These distances are computed using a newly developed human capital data set which fully characterizes the demographic structure of human capital, and thus underlines the joint relevance of demography and human capital in economic growth. Spatial effects on growth interdependence and complementarity are then explored with respect to the proposed distance metrics. Our results imply that significant cross-country growth interdependence based on human capital distances exists among defined country groups suggesting the need for a cooperative policy programme among them. We also find that the relationship between economic growth and human capital is highly nonlinear as a function of the proposed human capital distance.     

Capital markets and capital allocation: Implications for economies in transition*

Recent work showing that a sounder financial system is associated with faster economic growth has important implications for transition economies. Stock prices in developed economies move in highly firm‐specific ways that convey information about changes in firms’ marginal value of investment. This information facilitates the rapid flow of capital to its highest value uses. In contrast, stock prices in low‐income countries tend to move up and down en masse, and thus are of scant use for microeconomic capital allocation. Some transition economy markets are coming to resemble those of developed economies, others those of low‐income countries. Stock return asynchronicity is highly correlated with the strength of private property rights in general and public shareholders’ rights in particular. Other recent work suggests that small entrenched elites in low‐income countries preserve their sweeping control over the corporate sectors of their economies by using political influence to undermine the financial system and deprive entrants of capital. The lack of cross‐sectional independence in some transition economies’ stock returns may be a warning of such economic entrenchment. Sound property rights, solid shareholder rights, stock market transparency, and capital account openness appear to check this, and thus contribute to efficient capital allocation and economic growth.     

Nation-State Size,Ethnic Diversity and Economic Performance in the Advanced Capitalist Countries

This paper examines the proposition that the economic performance of advanced capitalist countries depends on their size and ethnic composition. As such it blends insights from two important literatures in comparative political economy. One is exemplified by the work of Peter Katzenstein, who wrote the classic treatise on the relationship between nation-state size and economic performance. Another is illustrated by the work of Ernest Gellner, whose work suggested that economic performance depends on the ethnic composition of the nation-state. The argument is tested on pooled data from 30 advanced capitalist countries for the 1985 through 2007 period. Regression analysis confirms that ethnically homogenous countries tend to have stronger rates of economic growth during this period than ethnically heterogeneous countries but that neither the size of countries nor the interaction of size and ethnic composition have significant effects. This points to the need for further exploration of these issues either with data covering a longer time frame or historical case studies.     

Wages, Experience and Seniority

In this paper we study the sources of wage growth. We identify the contribution to such growth of general, sector specific and firm specific human capital. Our results are interpretable within the context of a model where the returns to human capital may be heterogeneous and where firms may offer different combinations of entry level wages and firm specific human capital development. We allow for the possibility that wages are match specific and that workers move jobs as a result of identifying a better match. To estimate the average returns to experience, sector tenure and firm specific tenure within this context, we develop an identification strategy which relies on the use of firm closures. Our data source is a new and unique administrative data-set for Germany that includes complete work histories as well as individual characteristics. We find positive returns to experience and firm tenure for skilled workers. The returns to experience for unskilled workers are small and insignificant after 2 years of experience. Their returns to sector tenure are also zero. However, their returns to firm tenure are substantial.     

Investment in human capital and gender wage differences: evidence from the NLSY

This paper uses data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) to investigate gender differences in returns to various forms of human capital. Since the NLSY includes relatively detailed information regarding on- and off-the-job training, we place special emphasis on measuring gender differences in the incidence of and returns to formal post-school training. Also considered is the role of nonhuman capital factors such as industry and occupation in explaining the wage gap. It is found that about 60% of the gender wage gap in the sample is explained by mean differences in individual characteristics and market circumstances. This suggests a smaller role for discrimination in explaining the wage gap than previous research has found. The research indicates that training does not affect the gender wage gap. Also it is found that there is no statistically significant difference in the rate of return to other measures of human capital for women versus men. Our research suggests that the largest factors contributing to the wage gap are differences in the stocks of human capital for men and women, and differences in the distributions of men and women across industries and occupations.     

Ethnic Penalties in Unemployment and Occupational Attainment: Evidence for Britain

In spite of progress made since the 1950s and 1960s, black, Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi workers remain disadvantaged relative to whites in terms of their labour market opportunities. In general, they experience higher rates of unemployment and tend to be under-represented in higher paid, non-manual occupations. They can therefore be said to pay an ethnic penalty in the competition for jobs although the penalties paid vary considerably between the minority groups. In this paper we examine the different employment experiences of black, Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi men and women in terms of their unemployment propensities and occupational attainment.We use maximum likelihood methods to show that the ethnic penalties experienced by minority workers are not fully explained by differences in human capital endowments and personal characteristics. We conclude that at least some of the disadvantage experienced by ethnic minorities in the British labour market can be attributed to discriminatory selection practices by employers.     

Managerial ability and capital flows

Capital flows with low intensity and flows to middle-income countries. Physical and human capital alone cannot explain this pattern. I present a model to show how managerial ability—the ability to run risky projects—can increase total factor productivity and explain the pattern of capital flows. The model implies that countries with more high-ability managers use more risky projects and have higher productivity. I define proxies for managerial ability with data on physical and human capital, schooling, and entrepreneurship. Consistent with the pattern of capital flows, the model predicts similar returns to capital across countries and higher returns in middle-income countries.     

人力资本与进城农民工职业选择的实证研究

为适应中国劳动力供求形势新变化,促进社会和谐发展,迫切需要提高进城农民工的职业层次。教育、培训、迁移等人力资本因素是影响进城农民工职业选择的重要因素。使用多元logit模型进行了实证分析。受教育程度越高、接受过培训、在城市工作的年限越长的进城农民工,其从事具有更高社会声望职业的可能性就越大,这些职业有诸如办事人员和生产操作人员、专业技术人员和单位负责人等。提出了加强进城农民工人力资本投资的政策建议。     

Capital mobility,openness, and saving-investment relationship in Asia

The main objective of this paper is to investigate the relationship between openness to trade and saving-investment behaviour in Asia during the period 1990–2006. We use this relationship to examine whether those Asian countries that are more open to trade and enjoy less trade barriers have also higher degree of capital mobility. Cluster analysis is used to classify the countries into different groups according to the share of trade in their gross domestic products and their average tariff rates. The goal is to place the countries that are similar to each other in terms of their trade policy in one group. We apply the Generalized Least Square (GLS) technique to a set of balanced panel error correction models to estimate the short- and long-run relationship between saving and investment. The estimation results indicate that there exist long-run equilibrium relationships between domestic saving and investment in all groups regardless of their degree of trade openness. Moreover, contrary to Amirkhalkhali and Dar (2007) for the case of OECD, we find out that more openness in terms of trade policy is associated with higher degree of capital mobility for the case of Asian countries. One policy implication of this result for the Asian economies is that trade openness can be used as a strategy to attract capital from abroad. Our findings also confirm the prediction of new open economy macroeconomic models regarding the short- and long-run behaviour of current account.     

Poverty,inequality and ethnic minorities in Vietnam

The present study examines how and why ethnic minorities are poorer than ethnic majorities in Vietnam using the Vietnam Household Living Standards Survey data for 2002 and 2004. First, the analysis confirms that households belonging to the ethnic minority groups are not only poorer but also more vulnerable to various shocks than those in the ethnic majority groups, namely the Kinh and the Chinese. Second, household composition (e.g., dependency burden), education, land holding and location are important determinants of expenditure and poverty, whilst there is some diversity among different ethnic groups. Finally, the decomposition analyses reveal that the ethnic minorities are poorer not necessarily because they have more disadvantaged household characteristics (e.g., educational attainment or location), but, more importantly, because the returns to the characteristics are much lower for ethnic minorities than for the majorities. Government policies to reduce structural differences between ethnic majorities and minorities are imperative to address the disparities in returns to endowments between them.     

中国女性人力资本特点及现状分析

女性人力资本投资具有较高的个人收益率和社会收益。女性人力资本具有很强的持续性,对女性人力资本投资有利于社会的可持续发展。从我国女性受教育现状来看,对女性人力资本投资相对不足。从妇女从业情况来看,女性多就业于劳动技能要求不高,技术含量低、报酬少的行业。对女性人力资本投资不足的原因主要是社会观念和经济方面的原因。增加女性人力资本投资,有利于促进社会的全面发展和国民经济持续增长。     

The mobility of highly skilled human capital in Taiwan

Most economists agree that a country's economic growth depends on human capital, physical capital, technology, and several other minor inputs. Human capital is the basic wealth of every country. Highly skilled workers are the most important component of human capital. Human capital can have a positive spillover effect on society. When talented young people leave their native country to work elsewhere, this brain drain inhibits the country's economic growth. Several factors contribute to brain drain. These can be classified roughly into three categories: economic, academic and personal. Economic factors play the most important role. From the early 1960s to the late 1980s, Taiwan suffered a brain drain when many people who had earned advanced degrees in western countries chose to leave Taiwan to work elsewhere. In this study's statistical analysis, I show that Taiwan's economy is based in past on an effective labour force and explain why Taiwan's economy has grown over the past 30 years. With the improved economy in the 1990s, young people are increasingly choosing to return to or remain in Taiwan to work and live. As Taiwan's economy improves, its highly skilled labour market becomes more competitive.     

Changing composition of human capital The Czech Republic,Hungary and Poland1

We show that business education/occupations have expanded and that technical education/occupations have contracted in the Czech Republic and Poland since 1990. We interpret these changes as an adjustment necessary for their transition to a market economy. We do not find the same pattern in Hungary, which we attribute to the earlier timing of its transition. We construct an aggregate model in which labour reallocates in response to changing demand structure. When calibrated with the Czech and Polish data, the model generates a large movement of workers with technical education and experience into business occupations in the early 1990s. The discounted sum of output loss due to the gap between the demand structure and the composition of existing human capital amounts to between 8 and 40 percent of 1990 GDP.     

Can sustained economic growth and declining population coexist?

Most of the developed countries have been experiencing sub-replacement fertility. This leads to worries over the sustainability of economic growth in these countries. Given this concern, we ask the following questions: Is there a force that would allow economic growth and declining population to coexist? Is there a mechanism that could reverse the decline in fertility? We argue that returns to human capital in production provide the key to understanding this relation. Our theoretical framework predicts that, when the degree of increasing returns to human capital in traditional production technologies falls, advanced economies switch their productive efforts from labor-oriented technologies that require a constant creation of young workforce toward human capital-oriented technologies that support an ageing population. We call this shift the “endogenous efficiency-augmenting mechanism”. This suggests that sustained economic growth and a declining population can coexist in the long run. Finally, we compare our model against the data and find: (i) The degree of increasing returns to human capital has been falling over time throughout the world along with population growth rates. (ii) Increasing returns to human capital and population growth rates are positively correlated. (iii) Predictions of our model are consistent with what the data reveal.     

Growth,fertility and human capital: A survey

This paper surveys recent work on endogenous fertility and endogenous growth. These models provide the building blocks for a theory of development. They are capable of explaining income and fertility differentials between rich and poor countries. They can produce switching behavior, countries that transform themselves from no growth economies into high growth economies. The fertility and growth effects of social security programs are also examined. Finally models with increasing returns to population are presented. They are capable of reproducing very long term relationships between human capital, fertility and economic growth.     

Selective immigration policies, human capital accumulation and migration duration in infinite horizon

An increasing literature fosters selective immigration policies as a tool to increase human capital in both source and destination countries. These policies are supposed to prompt incentives to education, and–if selection is sufficiently severe–to increase the human capital stock in source countries. Nonetheless, when compared to open migration, selective policies make returns to education uncertain, and they may harm incentives to invest in human capital. As a consequence, they may reduce the human capital stock even though selection is “severe”. Moreover, when repeated migration is possible, they backfire on migration duration. We obtain our results in an infinite-horizon model that, unlike the current literature, places no restriction on the number of possible migration spells and allows for the possibility of a forced emigration.