The Impact of Capital Expenditures on Property Performance in Commercial Real Estate

Using a sample of 47,260 annual and 12,276 unique property observations during 2000–2011 we analyze the relationship between capital expenditures and performance by employing 2SLS models, in which capital expenditures are modeled as a function of property characteristics (age, square footage, occupancy rate, leverage, leasing commissions, lagged returns and property type), market conditions (interest rates, credit spread and standard deviation of cap rates) and property fixed effects. Our results reveal that while capital expenditures are mostly idiosyncratic and related to unique property characteristics, they are a significant determinant of property returns. We find persistently strong positive relationship between capital expenditures and excess NPI returns when controlling for the endogeneity of capital expenditures for industrial, office and retail properties. A further analysis reveals that this relationship is driven by the positive impact of building improvements and building expansions, while returns in all property types do not fully adjust to account for tenant improvements.     

物业税开征对房地产市场的影响效应分析

由物业税的税负归宿理论剖析入手,通过建立相关模型,可对目前市场上两种描述物业税开征以后开发成本或房价下降的前景有代表性的方案加以实证测算,并按照物业税等价替代成本下降部分的原则,在采用辅助变量法的基础上,建立一个自回归分布滞后模型,从而进一步了解物业税税率的改变对商业物业租金价值变化带来的影响.     

Office Capitalization Rates: Real Estate and Capital Market Influences

Focusing on the office capitalization rate, the central objective of this article is to shed light on two sets of issues that have not yet been fully researched. The first involves the importance of local-fixed and time-variant components of the office capitalization rate, and the significance of persistence in its time trends. The second centers on the relative importance of local office markets and the national capital market in shaping the various components of the office capitalization rate. Extensive econometric analysis of capitalization-rate series employed to address these issues highlights the existence of both local fixed and time-variant effects, while indicating differential persistence of time trends across markets. Moreover, such analysis uncovers the pivotal role of specific local office-market traits and the lesser role of national capital-market features in determining office capitalization-rate variations. Such findings on the role of local influences may provide a richer foundation for asset valuation and investment practices.     

Real Options Premia Implied from Recent Transactions in the Greek Real Estate Market

This research is the first to examine the empirical predictions of a real option-pricing model on market values from the realty market of a Euro area country, namely Greece. Using a manually collected sample of land and property transaction prices, we demonstrate that, a model which incorporates the option to wait to develop land has explanatory power on observed prices over and above the intrinsic value from a simple discounted cash flow (DCF) approach. Recent land transactions in our sample seem to reflect a premium for the option to wait (‘real option premium’) that can be as high as 26.66%–52.38%, especially in the west and north suburbs of Athens. Estimates of annual volatility for specific properties, as implied by transaction prices, are found to range from 15% to 21%.     

Commercial Real Estate, Information Production and Market Activity

This paper addresses several issues related to the production of information across commercial real estate markets. The purpose is to determine the extent to which factors of production might complement or substitute for one another. A simple model is presented to illustrate the potential trade-offs between appraisal- and transactions-based information production. A series of empirical tests are performed on a panel data set constructed for 51 markets covering 9 years, 2001 through 2009. The number of commercial appraisers (i.e., certified general appraisers) and the number of commercial property transactions are used as proxies for information production. Overall, the results support the substitution hypothesis. Additional analyses examine a broader definition of appraisal-based information production, as well as the influence of market transparency on the main findings of this paper. Findings based on these additional analyses indicate that the trade-off between appraisal- and transactions-based information production is more pronounced in transparent markets. We conclude that appraisal-based information as a factor of production is, potentially, most critical in markets or conditions where the information environment is incomplete (i.e., transactions are scarce or the information regarding transactions is not public).     

Determinants of Foreign Versus Domestic Real Estate Investment: Property Level Evidence from Listed Real Estate Investment Firms

We examine the determinants of foreign real estate investment relative to the domestic case using the portfolios of a large sample of publicly traded real estate investment companies; where foreign investment is defined as the property owner headquarters being located in a different country than a given asset. The cross-sectional results provide strong evidence that real estate firms are more likely to take a smaller stake in larger assets when investing abroad. The penchant for large assets holds when controlling for economic activity, real estate investment opportunities, depth and sophistication of the capital markets, investor protection and the legal framework, administrative burdens and regulatory limitations, and the socio-cultural and political environment at both the property nation and headquarter nation levels. In general, foreign ownership is less likely with industrial, office, retail, and self-storage properties. Capital market development is consistently negatively related to foreign investment.     

Commercial Real Estate Return Performance: A Cross-Country Analysis

This paper investigates the return performance of publicly traded real estate companies. The analysis spans the 1984–1999 time period and includes return data on over 600 companies in 28 countries. The return data reveal a substantial amount of variation in mean real estate returns and standard deviations across countries. Moreover, standard Treynor ratios, which scale country excess returns by the estimated beta on the world wealth portfolio, also reveal substantial variation across countries in excess real estate returns per unit of systematic risk. However, when we estimate Jensens alphas using both single and multifactor specifications, we detect little evidence of abnormal, risk-adjusted returns at the country level. We do, however, find evidence of a strong world-wide factor in international real estate returns. Furthermore, even after controlling for the effects of world-wide systematic risk, an orthogonalized country-specific factor is highly significant. This suggests that real estate securities may provide international diversification opportunities.     

开征物业税对我国房地产市场的影响分析

开征物业税有利于转变政府职能,使政府的税源更依赖于环境的建设,而不是过多地依赖于土地出让;有利于减轻开发商在房地产开发初期的资金压力,降低其经营风险,吸引更多的开发商进入,促进房地产业的竞争,增进消费者福利;有利于鼓励和实现房地产的自住性需求;有利于抑制房地产市场的投资和投机行为。但由于开征物业税会导致房地产开发成本和进入壁垒降低,也可能造成房地产开发过度,产生房地产泡沫。     

江西省房地产市场发展与房地产金融风险关系实证研究

金融危机爆发后,世界主要经济体普遍实行了宽松货币政策。在这一背景下,我国房地产市场强势反弹,销量涨幅创历史新高,成交均价一路走高。2009年,江西省房地产市场实现逆势上扬行情,呈现出投资增速逐月回升,供给面积低位增长,销售规模大幅上升,成交均价一路走高的运行特点。在分析江西省房地产市场运行特点的基础上,本文从实证角度考察了房地产市场发展与金融支持之间的关系。实证结果表明,房地产市场的发展、房价的上涨与金融支持之间具有相互促进、互为因果的密切关系。在此基础上进一步分析了房地产市场发展中隐含的金融风险,并提出相应的对策建议。     

当前房地产市场的形势分析

房地产市场开始降温 2003年以来,中央对房地产宏观调控政策出台频率之高,调控力度之大,都是前所未有的。以央行121号文件为标志的信贷政策收紧了房地产投资的资金链条,而国土资源部、监察部联合下发的71号令则牢牢地控制了房地产的另一投入要素--土地供应。同时,央行实行加息举措等宏观调控政策对促进房地产市场健康发展     

中国房地产市场趋势分析

未来一段时间内,中国房地产行业将进入一个新的发展阶段,突出表现为以下几个特征:市场分化、价格分化、公司分化.市场分化,即区域房地产市场走势差异化明显将长期存在.     

Capital Distribution Policy and Information Asymmetry: A Real Estate Market Perspective*

This article examines the relation between the distribution of capital to real estate investors and a market-based measure of information asymmetry. Previous research suggests that information asymmetries decrease as capital is distributed to outside investors. However, little attention has been given to those firms for which the marginal benefit of increased distributions may be small. Our analyses are based on a sample of real estate investment trusts (REITs), which are popularly characterized as high yield investments due to the regulation of a minimum distribution policy. The extent to which information asymmetry is influenced by these regulations, as well as by the opaque nature of the underlying assets, is an interesting empirical question. The results based on several years of data indicate that the perception of asymmetric information is lower for REITs that distribute more capital to their shareholders. A decomposition of yield into income and return-of-capital components reveals no differential effect in information relevance. The insights drawn from the results may be useful in determining the efficacy of real estate capital distribution policies and regulations.     

房产占有课税的国际比较

房产税是财产税的主要内容,古今中外,普遍课征。各国房产税税制在征收范围、征收对象、计税依据、税率设置和税收优惠政策上都有相同点和不同点。我国房产占有课税改革应结合本国国情并借鉴其他国家的一些做法。     

我国房地产调控政策分析

自2003年以来,我国房地产价格开始急剧攀升,尤其是金融危机之后,房价上涨的速度更是惊人。国家统计局公布的数字显示,2009年全国商品房平均销售价格比2008年上涨了23%,同时,2009年下     

Mortgage Put Options and Real Estate Markets

In this paper we offer direct evidence that financial intermediation does impact underlying asset markets. We develop a specific observable symptom of a banking system that underprices the put option imbedded in non-recourse asset-backed lending. Using a dataset for 19 countries and over 500 real estate investment trusts, we find that, following a negative demand shock, the “underpricing” economies experience far deeper asset market crashes than economies in which the put option is correctly priced.

Valuation in US Commercial Real Estate

We consider a log‐linearized version of a discounted rents model to price commercial real estate as an alternative to traditional hedonic models. First, we verify a key implication of the model, namely, that cap rates forecast commercial real estate returns. We do this using two different methodologies: time series regressions of 21 US metropolitan areas and mixed data sampling (MIDAS) regressions with aggregate REIT returns. Both approaches confirm that the cap rate is related to fluctuations in future returns. We also investigate the provenance of the predictability. Based on the model, we decompose fluctuations in the cap rate into three parts: (i) local state variables (demographic and local economic variables); (ii) growth in rents; and (iii) an orthogonal part. About 30% of the fluctuation in the cap rate is explained by the local state variables and the growth in rents. We use the cap rate decomposition into our predictive regression and find a positive relation between fluctuations in economic conditions and future returns. However, a larger and significant part of the cap rate predictability is due to the orthogonal part, which is unrelated to fundamentals. This implies that economic conditions, which are also used in hedonic pricing of real estate, cannot fully account for future movements in returns. We conclude that commercial real estate prices are better modelled as financial assets and that the discounted rent model might be more suitable than traditional hedonic models, at least at an aggregate level.     

银行必须直面房市风险

随着货币政策的进一步紧缩,作为高度依赖于外部融资的房地产行业的风险引起了人们的普遍关注.有房地产业的知名人士甚至说,要房地产业死,银行必先死,摆出一副绑架的架势,但是,这并非是不可信的威胁.     

境外资本流入中国房地产市场的影响与对策

近年来,境外资本大规模进入中国房地产市场,对国内房地产市场的健康发展造成很大冲击.其进入方式有境外非居民机构和个人直接购买境内房地产、直接在中国设立房地产开发企业或者与中国企业合作开发房地产、以外债方式进入房地产行业以及为中小房地产开发商提供融资等.本文分析了境外资本流入中国房地产市场的特点和影响,并提出相关的政策建议.     

Commercial Real Estate Valuation: Fundamentals Versus Investor Sentiment

This paper investigates the role of fundamentals and investor sentiment in commercial real estate valuation. In real estate markets, heterogeneous properties trade in illiquid, highly segmented and informationally inefficient local markets. Moreover, the inability to short sell private real estate restricts the ability of sophisticated traders to enter the market and eliminate mispricing. These characteristics would seem to render private real estate markets highly susceptible to sentiment-induced mispricing. Using error correction models to carefully model potential lags in the adjustment process, this paper extends previous work on cap rate dynamics by examining the extent to which fundamentals and investor sentiment help to explain the time-series variation in national-level cap rates. We find evidence that investor sentiment impacts pricing, even after controlling for changes in expected rental growth, equity risk premiums, T-bond yields, and lagged adjustments from long run equilibrium.

基于澳大利亚房地产信托基金市场的VaR模型实证分析

房地产信托基金(REITs)代表着目前全世界房地产领域最先进的生产力.澳大利亚房地产信托基金市场(A-REITs)在金融危机期间表现相对平稳.本文通过介绍A-REITs市场情况,从微观角度采用VaR风险模型方法,测出A-REITs整体市场和特定个体风险水平.在此基础上,建议中国房地产信托基金行业(C-REITs)统一市场风险计量工具,建立相关制度控制内外部风险,为C-REITs试点健康快速发展提供参考.