服务贸易、非对称开放与全球失衡:一项跨国的经验研究

文章从贸易内部结构出发，分析非对称开放条件下，服务贸易兴起与全球失衡之间的关系。并利用全球59个主要贸易国家2000-2014年双边贸易数据对两者之间的关系进行计量分析，实证结果显示：第一，服务贸易净值与经常账户余额之间存在显著的负向关系，服务贸易净值提高100万美元，经常账户余额减少98.7万美元。在引入交互项之后这种关系依然显著成立。因此，服务贸易的非对称开放是造成全球失衡的重要原因。第二，技术进步和利率上调可以扭转服务贸易对经常账户的抑制作用。第三，金融危机之后，服务贸易和经常账户的负向关系进一步强化。后危机时代，全球失衡现象有可能继续恶化。第四，分位数回归发现，在低点位处服务贸易净值对经常账户的影响更为强烈。文章的研究为理解中国的服务贸易逆差提供了新的视角，并为扭转服务贸易逆差奠定了理论基础。     

Agricultural Tradables and Economic Recovery in Uganda: The Limitations of Structural Adjustment in Practice

Uganda's economic reform program has been widely regarded as a success story for structural adjustment. Nevertheless, a large trade deficit persists, shored up by inflows of aid and private remittances. The poor performance of the agricultural tradables sector is presented as the key explanation for this trade imbalance. Two main reasons for this poor performance are found to be the failure to liberalize producer prices quickly and the failure to overcome early institutional resistance to reforms of marketing arrangements. Uganda's recovery is therefore much less impressive than it appears and the sustainability of the now heavily aid-dependent economy must remain in serious doubt.     

"广场协议"后的美元/日元汇率与美日双边贸易失衡

1985年"广场协议"的最主要目标是通过美元对全球主要货币特别是对日元的贬值来缩减美国的贸易逆差。然而,对1985-2006年美元/日元汇率、美日双边贸易差额等数据进行的分析说明,美元/日元汇率变动对美日双边贸易收支变动没有解释能力,美元对日元的贬值没有解决美日之间的贸易失衡问题。我们有理由相信,人民币对美元的升值也同样不能解决当代美中之间的贸易失衡问题。     

Monetary basis of trade imbalance

The purpose of this paper is to lay simple yet elegant, formal microeconomic foundations for the theory that monetary policy is a principal determinant of international trade imbalance. Foreign exchange is a different form of real liquidity, not a perfect substitute for domestic currency. As a result, foreign money is traded as a commodity in exchange for consumption goods. If the monetary policies of two countries differ, a permanently unbalanced flow of goods may arise. Specifically, this paper argues that a high-inflation regime is likely to induce a perpetual trade deficit.     

Estimating the wage costs of inter- and intra- sectoral adjustment

Estimating the Wage Costs of Inter- and Intra-Sectoral Adjustment. — The proposition that labour market adjustments to intra-industry trade are less costly than adjustments to inter-industry trade is a widely-held belief amongst trade economists. If there are significant sector-specific skills, then this ‘smooth adjustment hypothesis’ seems intuitive. Direct evidence relating to this issue remains largely anecdotal. In this paper we estimate the returns to tenure within jobs, industries and occupations in order to predict the costs, in terms of wage losses, of moving jobs between and within sectors. We find no compelling evidence that wage costs of moving between industries are larger than the costs of moving within industries.     

Novel indicators of the trade and welfare effects of agricultural distortions in OECD countries

Agricultural markets in OECD countries have long been highly distorted by government policies. Traditional weighted average aggregates of the price distortions involved, such as producer and consumer support estimates (PSEs and CSEs), can be poor indicators of the trade restrictiveness and economic welfare losses associated with them, especially if a country’s support estimates vary a lot across the product range. Certainly estimates of trade and welfare effects of price supports can be obtained from sectoral or economywide models using price elasticity estimates, but the results can be contentious if there is no consensus on what model specification and elasticity parameters to use. This paper shows that, if there is a willingness to accept simple assumptions about elasticities, it is possible to generate indicators of the welfare and trade restrictiveness of agricultural policies using no more than the price and quantity data needed to generate PSEs and CSEs. These new indexes thus provide an attractive supplement to the current policy monitoring regime developed by the OECD Secretariat.     

Creating manufacturing jobs in India: Has openness to trade really helped?

After following inward oriented economic policies for nearly four decades, India opened up to international trade in the early 1990s. Since then, the trade integration of the Indian economy in general and the manufacturing sector in particular has increased phenomenally. Against this backdrop, this paper analyses the direct as well as indirect impact of trade on jobs in the Indian manufacturing sector. Using the growth accounting approach, we find that the direct impact of trade on manufacturing jobs has been positive. However, trade induced decrease in labour demand has neutralized direct job gains to a great extent. Therefore, unlike other Asian economies, the overall employment gain from trade has been minimal. The paper argues that supply side constraints should be addressed urgently to enhance job gains from international trade.     

Economic forces,structural discrimination and black family instability

The social and economic gains achieved by black families during the 1960s were severely eroded during the seventies and eighties. Unemployment, poverty, single-parent families, out-of-wedlock births, and adolescent pregnancies soared to alarming levels. According to the thesis of the declining significance of race, this crisis is mainly concentrated among the black “underclass” and it is broad societal trends, not racism, that is mainly responsible for their increased deprivation. We contend that this thesis fails to assess the role of institutionalized racism as it is manifested in “unintended” or “structural” discrimination, i.e., the disproportionate adverse effects of economic trends and policies on the functioning of low-income and middle-income black families. Moreover, we argue that social forces or policies that have racially disparate adverse effects are “discriminatory” by result, whether intended or not. The major economic trends that affected black families adversely during the seventies and eighties were: back-to-back recessions, double-digit inflation, and industrial and population shifts. The key economic policies that undermined black family stability have been: anti-inflation fiscal and monetary policies, trade policies, plant closings, social welfare, block grants, and federal per capita formulas for allocating funds to states and local areas that have not been corrected for the census undercount.     

Entering new country and product markets: does export promotion help?

Entering new export markets is primarily a discrete choice. Even though several empirical papers have used modeling strategies consistent with this fact, no study has examined the effects of public policies aimed at affecting this decision within this setting. In this paper we assess the impact of trade promotion activities on export outcomes using trade support and highly disaggregated export data for the entire population of exporters of Uruguay, a small developing country, over the period 2000–2007 to estimate a binary outcome model that allows for unobserved heterogeneity. We find that trade supporting activities have helped firms reach new destination countries and introduce new differentiated products.     

Trade liberalization and productivity growth in Australian manufacturing industries

Although there has been a revival of interest in the trade-growth nexus, the impact of trade liberalization on productivity gains remains empirical, given the ambiguity in the literature on this issue. This paper examines the case for Australia using annual data of eight two-digit manufacturing industries from 1968–69 to 1994–95. Unlike earlier studies, total factor productivity growth is first decomposed into technological progress and gains in technical efficiency, and the effect of trade liberalization is then investigated separately on TFP growth, as well as on each of the components of TFP growth. The empirical finding that trade liberalization has a positive and significant effect on technological progress, but no significant effect on gains in technical efficiency, adds yet another dimension to the evaluation of trade liberalization policies.     

Stabilization, adjustment, and the poor

This paper attempts to survey the recent literature on the impact of stabilization and adjustment programs upon the poor and to consider some of the key issues in the context of a particular equity-oriented low-income country. Tanzania. After looking at some of the approaches of earlier studies, this paper analyzes the effects of restructuring policies, macroeconomic restraint, and strategic policy change. The author then reviews available evidence on the recent experience of Tanzania with external shock, efforts at stabilization, and relations with the IMF.In conclusion, the author argues that in order to better understand their impact on poverty we need more detailed analyses of specific countries' experience with different kinds of macroeconomic imbalance and different short- to medium-term policy responses. However, he does indicate with some certainty that when equivalent external blows impact upon very low-income countries, there must be a presumption that, other things being equal (including the distribution of income), the proportion of households and people pushed over the line into “absolute poverty” will be greater than in middle-income countries. The international community should provide external finance to aid these low-income countries in limiting the negative impact on the poorest.     

Why Does the US Face Greater Disadvantages in the Trade War with China?

The rhetoric used by President Trump regarding the trade war against China is rife with misinterpretation. The actual American trade deficit with China is much lower if evaluated in the correct terms of value‐added. The deficit is mainly a result of insufficient domestic US savings. In addition, as the US dollar is an international currency which is being increasingly held as a result of increases in world population, income, prices and transaction intensity, Americans can benefit from having trade deficits of hundreds of billions of US dollars each year. My analysis, as well as a model of the Bank of England, reveals that the trade war is not only mutually harmful but also actually hurts America more than China. The Thucydides Trap is likely avoidable in the current nuclear era of assured mutual destruction and because China, facing many structural impediments, is still far behind America in technology and military power.     

美国的经济增长模式及对中美贸易的影响

自20世纪90年代以来,美国巨额的贸易逆差和经济的持续增长并行不悖。在美国的经济增长模式中,消费具有较高的投入产出效益,是政策导向的重中之重,这也必然使美国背负巨大的债务。中美贸易顺差已经成为美国经济增长模式运行的一个部分,深受其影响。对其中的负面影响,中国需要未雨绸缪,早作准备。     

Chinese Bilateral Intra-Industry Trade: A Panel Data Study for 50 Countries in the 1992–2001 Period

This study examines the features and determinants of Chinese intra-industry trade during the 1992–2001 transition period for 50 of China’s trade partners. We disentangle total intra-industry trade (TIIT) into vertical intra-industry trade (VIIT) vis-à-vis horizontal intra-industry trade (HIIT), using data at the four-digit SITC level. The findings indicate that Chinese bilateral intra-industry trade, particularly VIIT, increased significantly during this transition period. VIIT appears to be positively related to differences in consumer patterns. HIIT is negatively related to these differences. In addition, we find that FDI has played an important role in determining IIT, especially VIIT. Other significant intra-industry trade drivers are geographical distance, economic size, trade openness and trade composition. Finally, the impact of China’s liberalization policies and the special role of Hong Kong are demonstrated. We discuss a number of important business and political implications that can be drawn from our findings. JEL no. F14     

Implementation and imbalance: dealing with hangover from the Uruguay Round

The Uruguay Round agreements impose bound obligations to implement,but provide only unbound promises of assistance—is therea legal solution within the WTO legal system, i.e. can implementationassistance be made a legal obligation? The author concludesthat the Doha negotiations on trade facilitation and on aidfor trade demonstrate that such a legal arrangement cannot beconstructed. This is not, however, a problem; the internationalcommunity has provided extensive trade-related assistance throughbilateral and multilateral development agencies. Regarding theoverall Uruguay Round imbalance (developing countries gave morethan they got), failure of the international community to acknowledgethat the imbalance stems in major part from the WTO agreementon intellectual property (TRIPS) has retarded a general making-up.     

对外贸易顺差或贸易逆差影响我国当前通胀治理的内部机理及对策建议——借鉴美国、日本发展经验

基于对外贸易顺差和逆差对我国当前通胀的"货币基础"效应和"价格传导"机制的深入分析,提出加快对外贸易增长方式转变是解决国际贸易不平衡对我国通胀负面影响的重要途径,进而通过比较美国、日本在促进本国对外贸易增长方式转变的经验,提出了相关的对策建议。     

Currency unions and trade: The special case of EMU

In this paper, the impact of the adoption of the euro on the commercial transactions of EMU countries is investigated. It seeks to disentangle the effects of eliminating exchange rate volatility — and those of other policy factors that promote integration — from the influence of the emergence of the European currency union. Since EMU is a relatively new phenomenon, a panel estimation of the gravity equation in a dynamic framework is used in order to capture effects like trade persistence. The main finding is that the adoption of the euro has had a positive but not an exorbitant impact on bilateral trade between European countries (ranging between 9 and 10 per cent). The impact is much lower than that shown in the recent literature on a larger and heterogeneous set of countries. One reason for this divergence seems to be that the euro was adopted after decades of integration policies had already worked through in Europe. JEL no. F4, F15, C230     

中美服务贸易国际竞争力比较分析——兼论中国服务贸易结构性失衡

美国作为当今世界服务业最发达的国家,其服务贸易对填补货物贸易产生的巨额逆差发挥了重要作用,而中国则是对美货物贸易的巨大顺差与服务贸易逆差并存。随着中国服务业开放"保护性安排"的结束,中美两国的服务贸易也会快速增长。本文通过对两国服务贸易RCA①和TC②指数的定量分析比较,指出中美服务贸易失衡是中国服务业竞争劣势的集中体现,并就此从宏观和中观两个层面提出了相关的对策建议。     

全球经济失衡环境下我国双顺差的形成机理及政策建议

本文探讨了在全球经济失衡的环境下我国国际收支的不平衡现象,从双顺差的结构入手,分别分析了经常账户和资本与金融账户的顺差形成原因,并在深入分析双顺差的规模和形成机理的基础上,提出社会保障、汇率、出口贸易等方面的政策建议,力求在后危机时代促进出口增长模式的转变,调整国际收支不平衡现象。     

我国生态逆差及绿色贸易研究——基于隐含能的测算

文章利用能源投入产出模型,对1997、2000、2002、2005和2007年我国对外贸易中的隐含能值和生态逆差值进行了测算.从结果中可知,我国是典型的隐含能净出口国,显示了我国在巨大的贸易顺差背后存在着严重的生态逆差现象,同时也说明了目前的贸易现状不利于国内的节能降耗.为了改善这种现状,文章以生态逆差值和贸易差额作为分类指标,将现有的产业分为“鼓励类”、“允许类”、“限制类”及“禁止类”等四类,并针对这四类产业提出不同的绿色贸易政策,以便更好地实现基于节能降耗的绿色贸易发展.