Social development and macroeconomic policy

We have a clear idea of what it is that South Africa needs and deserves, both now and in the future. We also all agree that in order to create the conditions which will address those needs, we will have to go without some things in the short term. Until now, we, in this House, have not agreed on what it is that we should part with for the common good ...²     

The assessment: macroeconomic policy

This paper describes the emerging consensus about the 'reactionfunction' approach to macroeconomic policy. The first sectionof the paper describes the historical emergence of this consensus,as a synthesis of pre-Keynesian, Keynesian, and monetarist ideas.The theoretical part of the paper presents the basic frameworkof the approach and explains a number of extensions, including:finding the optimal reaction function, avoiding the problemof inflation bias, the relevance of the Taylor rule, forward-lookingexpectations, extensions to the open economy, and the interconnectionsbetween monetary and fiscal policy. The later parts of the papercontain a detailed discussion of some of the practical and institutionalissues involved in the implementation of this new framework.     

评后凯恩斯主义货币政策理论

后凯恩斯主义作为西方非主流经济流派,源于凯恩斯的“货币经济”思想,在对于“货币-经济”关系的分析中,后凯恩斯主义者运用“预期、时间序列以及不确定性”对新古典阿罗-德布鲁世界进行了批判,并由此生发出“水平主义”和“结构主义”的后凯恩斯主义货币政策理论。     

The assessment: macroeconomic policy after EMU

In this paper we discuss the emergence of the new European macroeconomicstructure within EMU. We focus on three important elements:the wage-fixing authorities in each country, the fiscal authoritiesin each country, and the single European Central Bank (ECB).We identify serious problems which might arise in coordinatingboth the wage-setters and the fiscal authorities, and arguethat these problems could be exacerbated if the ECB conductsmonetary policy inappropriately. In the light of this we providerecommendations for the conduct of monetary policy by the ECB.The paper also briefly discusses financial stability issuesand the interaction between the countries in EMU and the restof the world.     

The role of macroeconomic policy in rebalancing growth

The aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2007–2009 has called the export-led growth model of many Asian economies into question. This paper describes the contribution that macroeconomic policy can make to promote a rebalancing of growth away from dependence on exports to developed economies to a more sustainable pattern of growth centered on domestic and regional demand. This represents a significant departure from the traditional uses of macroeconomic policy to stabilize the economic cycle and achieve stable and low inflation. The evidence suggests that macroeconomic policy can successfully contribute to growth rebalancing. Policy measures not only can affect aggregate demand directly, but can also affect it indirectly via their “microeconomic” impacts on private sector behavior such as the household savings rate. Although in the long-term fiscal policy should be balanced to maintain government debt stability and avoid crowding out of private investment, there may be substantial scope to expand monetary and fiscal policy in the medium-term to offset the deflationary effects of an appreciating currency during periods of current account reversal. Previous experience suggests that most of the needed stimulus can be provided by monetary policy, with only a supplementary role to be played by fiscal policy. Moreover, Asian economies with large current account surpluses tend to have sufficient fiscal space.     

Monetary policy transmission and macroeconomic policy coordination in Pacific island countries

During the global financial crisis, central banks in Pacific island countries eased monetary policy to stimulate economic activity. Judging by the ensuing movements in commercial bank interest rates and private sector credit, monetary policy transmission appears to be weak. This is confirmed by an empirical examination of interest rate pass‐through and credit growth. Weak credit demand and under‐developed financial markets seem to have limited the effectiveness of monetary policy, but the inflexibility of exchange rates and rising real interest rates have also served to frustrate the central banks' efforts despite a supporting fiscal policy. While highlighting the importance of developing domestic financial markets in the long run, this experience also points to the need to coordinate macroeconomic policies and to use all macroeconomic tools available in conducting countercyclical policies, including exchange rate flexibility.     

Retracing the preferences behind macroeconomic policy: The dutch experience

Summary The 1986 Central Economic Plan for The Netherlands presents a combination of policy adjustments which is considered to lead to a more satisfactory outcome for the Dutch economy than the central projection for the period up to 1990. This study is an attempt to reconstruct the preferences behind the alternative scenario as a starting point for optimisation exercises. It turns out that reducing the government deficit receives the highest priority, while economic growth has a relatively low weight. A further analysis suggests that, to some degree, the high priority to improving the government budget may be due to risk aversion. At relatively low cost in terms of the other target variables, unemployment could be reduced by creating more public sector employment, the main drawback being a fall in disposable income per employee.This paper has grown out of the master's thesis of Annette Schrijver for the Technical University of Delft, which she wrote at the Central Planning Bureau. We have benefited from discussions with many colleagues. In particular we like to thank H. den Hartog, F.J.H. Don and V.R. Okker. The responsibility for the contents of this article rests entirely with the authors.     

从对近期利率调控分析看宏观经济政策的脉络

<正> 一段时间以来,央行是否加息已成为人们议论的焦点,各界人士也急于从中考量中央宏观调控政策的走向。笔者认为,宏观经济形势、社会资金供求量以及中美的利差是决定当前利率政策的3个主要因素。就宏观经济形势而言,加息固然必要,但也必须考虑到未来物价走势可能发生的变化,加息必须十分谨慎,近期升息的可能性不大,连续若干月CPI(居民消费价格指数)增速超5％,央行才可能考虑部分加息,或是微弱升息,以便实现经济软着陆,达到经济长期健康发展的目的,即使经济的增长实现其潜在扩张能力;使就业率维持在较高水平;使价格稳定(即货币购买力保持稳定);使长期利率保持在合理状态。 一、近期利率调整走势分析 1.资金相对过剩不支持加息。从资金供求总体上看,目前资     

简析金融深化论及其政策主张

自20世纪70年代以来，金融深化论成为发展中国家经济金融体制改革的理论基础，金融深化也被广大发展中国家视为消除金融抑制、实现经济发展的重要手段。但是，进入90年代以后，这些国家的发展进程却被金融危机所打断，经济增长严重受挫。通过对该理论及其具体实施路径的分析，笔者认为，出现这种现象的原因主要在于金融深化论的部分假定条件比较严格，还不太符合发展中国家的实际情况，这在一定程度上影响了该理论的准确性和实用性。     

The macroeconomic effects of monetary policy: Evidence from Japan

This study examines the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy in Japan. We apply the new identification strategy proposed by Bu et al. (2021) to the Japanese case and estimate monetary policy shocks that bridge periods of conventional and unconventional monetary policymaking. We show the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy; a contractionary monetary policy shock significantly decreases output and inflation rates even under the effective lower bound. However, because the shorter-term and longer-term nominal interest rates are already close to zero, the magnitude of monetary policy shocks on the macroeconomic variables is modest.     

Micro-and macroeconomic theory: The contested boundaries reconsidered

Summary One of the major themes in contemporary economics is, as we have observed, theoretical priority of value theory as a foundation for macroeconomic analysis. A number of authors have clarified the influence of general equilibrium analysis on the work of Keynes, and have developed systematic reformulations of his ideas with this branch of pure theory as a point of departure. The tendency in this work has been to dismiss psychologically oriented hypotheses, such as those that were stressed by Keynes, as mereobiter dicta which at best serve to state an argument imprecisely in provisional form, and have no permanent role in rigorously formulated theory. An alternative view, which discards less of Keynes' macro methodology than much of modern exegesis, has been put forward in this paper.A schema for macroeconomic theory which retains the utility and profit maximizing assumptions of pure theory, has been advanced. It has been called heterogeneous reduction of macroeconomics and is seen to find support in the literature of economics and the philosophy of science. Now that the necessity for developing the pure theory of macroeconomic activity is widely recognized, perhaps there is a greater opportunity for establishing a complementary role for behavioral hypotheses, whose current position of eclipse may one day be re-examined in a more favorable light.     

The dynamic macroeconomic effects of tax policy in an overlapping generations model

The paper studies the dynamic allocation effects of tax policywithin the context of an overlapping-generations model of theBlanchard-Yaari type. The model is extended to allow for endogenouslabour supply and three tax instruments, viz. a capital tax,labour income tax, and consumption tax. Both analytical expressionsand simple diagrams are used to analyze the impact, transition,and long-run effects of tax policy changes. It is shown thata part of the long-run incidence of capital and consumptiontaxes falls on capital when households' horizons are finitewhereas labour would fully bear the burden of these taxes inan infinite-horizon model.     

Russian enterprises in mid-2006: Some consequences of national macroeconomic policy

The Results of a regular poll, conducted by the Laboratory of Macroeconomic Process Analysis and Forecasting of the RAS Institute of Economic Forecasting among real-sector enterprises, are analyzed and commented.     

Capital inflows, financial repression, and macroeconomic policy in India since the reforms

Since the early 1990s the Indian economy has seen a considerablerelaxation of controls, as a consequence of which it has witnessedunprecedented growth. This is especially remarkable in the externalsector. In this paper I evaluate the progress made on the macroeconomicfront and address the possibility of opening up the capitalaccount of the balance of payments. I show that given the weaknessin the financial sector and the government finances, it maybe dangerous to speed up the process of opening up the capitalaccount further.