农户收入差距微观原因分析:山西的经验证据

本文基于山西农村876户的微观数据集,使用非参数回归对影响农户收入差距的原因加以分析,经验研究的结果发现：1．教育体现出的人力资本是拉大农户收入差距的主要原因：2．物质资本对于减小农户收入的差距有显著影响,土地对于农户收入差距没有显著影响;3．相比较低收入组农户,中等收入农户教育回报高出4．08％,高收入农户教育回报高出6．28％,相反,物质资本回报上,则是中等收入组和高收入组农户分别比低收入组要低5．8％和9．9％。     

劳动力的大病对家庭教育投资行为的影响--中国农村的研究

“因病致贫”或“因病返贫”是中国农村不发达地区亟待解决的社会问题。一旦农户中的劳动力因为受到大病冲击,自身的健康状况下降,而减少子女的教育人力资本投资,就降低了子女未来的期望收入,从而在长期导致了整个家庭平均收入水平的下降。本文的实证分析证明了发生在农户劳动力身上的大病冲击和其对子女教育人力资本投资之间负向关系的存在,计量结果同时显示了只有发生在子女小学阶段的农户劳动力大病冲击对子女教育水平有显著的负向影响。     

1999年家电消费需求预计增长11%

据业内人士预测,今年我国家电市场消费需求仍将保持增长,大约在１１％左右,增幅略高于１９９８年１２个百分点。城市居民家庭家电消费支出增速平稳,农村居民家庭家电消费支出增速比预期减缓。今年消费需求面临的形势是：在新的消费热点未形成之前,１９９９年消费需求不可能有大的增长。一个重要的因素是,居民收入增长幅度下降,城市居民收入增幅由１９９７年的５％降到１９９８年的４．６５％左右,农村居民收入增幅由９％降到４．７％左右,城乡居民收入增幅趋缓。如果没有新的刺激消费需求的得力措施,消费需求将呈现平稳态势。按照…     

农民消费水平提高 存在问题仍需关注

今年以来．随着各项惠农政策支持力度加大，农村经济有了进一步的发展，产业结构不断优化，农民纯收入快速增长，农民生活水平有了进一步的提高。据对全省3100户农户抽样调查，2007年，安徽农民人均纯收入3556．3元，同比增加587．2元．增长19．8％；农民人均生活消费支出2365．2元．同比增加315．2元，增长15．4％。     

心理期望视角下农村家庭收入水平对其教育消费支出的影响研究 ——以辽宁为例

随着新农村建设,农村家庭收入水平日益提速,对子女教育的心理期望也越来越高,家庭收入水平的变化对农村家庭教育消费支出的影响日益突出.由此,构建了以农村家庭对子女教育的心理期望为中介变量的家庭收入水平变化影响其教育消费支出的理论模型,探讨了心理期望的中介作用,并根据辽宁省农村家庭的调研数据进行了实证研究.结果发现农村家庭收入水平提升促进了农村村民对子女教育的心理期望,农户对子女教育的心理期望助长了家庭教育消费支出水平,农村家庭收入水平提升对其教育消费支出的直接效应不显著,需要通过心理期望的中介作用机制实现.     

奏响叠彩腾飞新篇章

桂林市叠彩区位于桂林市区北部,辖2个街道办事处和1个乡,行政区域面积52平方千米,2009年末人口13．65万。2010年全年地区生产总值累计完成44．80亿元,比上年增长12．1％;全社会固定资产投资36．08亿元,比上年增长32．1％;组织财政收入2．51亿元,比上年增长25．7％：城镇居民人均可支配收入18049元,比上年增长10．5％;农民人均纯收入5717元,比上年增长10．3％,经济社会发展走上了快速发展、良性发展的轨道。     

透视居民服务消费 推动第三产业发展——从居民服务性消费的变化看铜陵市第三产业结构

今年1—10月份铜陵市居民人均服务性消费支出为1884．4元，同比增长37．39％，比消费性支出的增幅高出15．1个百分点。服务性消费支出占消费性支出的比重也逐年提高，2004年为23.94％，2005年达24．65％，今年1—10月份达27．71％，服务性消费支出在整个居民生活消费的重要地位日益显现。教育、饮食、通信、交通、文化娱乐是服务性消费支出中的主流，据调查资料显示，1—10月份铜陵市居民教育费用、饮食服务、通信服务、交通服务和文化娱乐服务和分别占服务性消费支出的25．25％、24．01％、20．29％、15．19％、12．49％。其变化特点如下：     

中国经济增速势头加快今明两年投资分析和预测

2004年将是我国经济继续持续、快速、健康发展的一年。如果没有大的干扰，经济将比2003年获得更快的发展。预计GDP的增长将在9．0％～9．5％之间，固定资产投资增长达到25％左右，消费增长在10％左右，外贸进出口在连续两年快速增长的基础上。增幅将有所回落，进出口的增长幅度都将在20％左右；受2003年生产资料价格上涨的滞后影响，2004年居民消费价格指数的增长将达到2％左右，商品零售价格指数将摆脱负增长的状况，达到1％左右的增长。     

河北农民收入增长方向及策略选择

我省农民收入经过90年代前期快速增长后,自1997年开始,增长速度明显减缓。1997年农民人均纯收入增长11．2％,增速比上年减缓11．9个百分点;1998年增长5．2％,减缓6．0个百分点;199年增长1．5％,减缓3．7个百分点;2000年增长1．5％,增速与上年持平,仍维持在低速增长水平。农民收入增长速度持续走低,抑制了农村消费增长,成为影响国民经济健康发展和社会稳定的重要因素。     

社会资本、农地流转与农户消费扩张

中国农户消费转型升级引发各方关注,但鲜有从社会资本的视角探讨农地流转对农户消费的影响及其微观作用机理。文章在理论层面分析了农地流转通过影响农户生计资本变动和生计策略调整对农户消费的传导机制,并基于中国家庭追踪调查（CFPS）三期面板数据,定量评估了农地流转对农户消费影响的社会资本效应。结果表明：（1）我国农户消费基尼系数总体呈缩窄趋势,但农地转出农户相比农地转入农户具有更高的人均消费支出及消费不均等程度;（2）农地流转能够影响农户关键自然资本改变和生计策略调整,从而显著提高农户消费水平,且参与农地流转农户相比未参与农地流转农户具有更高的消费动机;（3）社会资本在农户农地转入和转出过程中对农户消费存在微观中介效应,即社会资本越高的农户参与农地流转的概率越大,且能够通过提高农地转出户非农就业机会和扩大其多元化收入来源,间接提升农户消费水平。在精准扶贫和乡村振兴战略协同背景下,应积极有序推进农地适度规模经营,促进农地转出户非农就业,并强化农户社会资本建设,提高农户多元化收入,从而全面助推农村消费转型升级。     

省域和省际层面上的收入和消费差距——基于中国省份面板数据展开的唯象研究

采用聚类、统计拟合及复杂网络等方法,对2002-2010各省数据分析发现:人均收入大于20000的省份,城乡收入差距在低水位上扩大;低于20000的省份,差距在高水位上呈现倒U型片段。人均收入越高区域,城乡差距越小。城乡收入差距的轨迹是一有倒U型波段衔接成的向下延展的波。近十年城乡差距在扩大,如今维持在11年左右;省内城乡差距最大和最小年数分别是15和7年,且在地理空间上呈现聚集性;省际最大差距年数是13年,省际城镇和省际乡村最大差距分别是8年和13年;城镇消费率近15年持续走低,乡村消费率呈现倒U型片段,且如今乡村消费率高于城镇。还发现:乡城消费率差越小,城乡收入差距就越小,呈现"若乡村消费率每高于城镇消费率1%,城镇人均收入和乡村人均收入比约扩大20%"的数量关系,而解决城乡差距的政策是提高城镇消费率。省份个数分布图从一谱带较窄的分布到一谱带较宽的分布,接着连续性断裂,演化成分立的离散谱带,即社会出现模块化的阶层。     

Optimal population growth and the social welfare function

The social welfare function criterion offers an approach to the theory of optimal economic growth that is intermediate between the 2 most frequently used utilitarian models--those that maximize per capita utility and those that maximize total utility. According to the welfare criterion, societal welfare depends not only on the level of per capita consumption, but also on the population density in the area in which an individual resides. The model postualtes that, for a given level of per capita consumption, total utility increases with increasing density, reaches a maximum, and then declines with further population increases due to the deleterious effect of overcrowding on the quality of life (e.g., the quality of education, recreational facilities, and environmental factors such as clean air and pure water). The overall objective of the model is to identify the optimal per capita consumption and population size that maximize the discounted social welfare. Optimal population growth occurs when the increase in the discounted social welfare resulting from the introduction of a new member equals the reduction in welfare created by that addition (modified Meade Rule), while per capita accumulation equals the sum of the population growth rate and the social rate of time preference (modified Golden Rule). This model could be extended to consider technological change more explicitly and its effect on optimal outcomes.     

基于非参数回归的江苏省用电量分析

基于2000—2019年江苏省用电量和影响因素的数据,运用非参数回归方法探究了一维变量城镇人均住房面积与用电量的关系。结果表明非参数回归方法的拟合效果是很理想的。运用半参数回归模型探究了多维变量人口数量、人均GDP、城镇人均住房面积、农村人均住房面积与用电量的关系。结果表明,人口数量和人均GDP对于江苏省用电量具有显著的参数效应;城镇人均住房面积和农村人均住房面积对于江苏省用电量具有显著的非参数效应;两者之间具有交互作用。     

Energy demand and population changes

During the post World War 2 years energy consumption has grown 136% while population grew about 51%; per capita consumption of energy expanded, therefore, about 60%. For a given population size, demographic changes mean an increase in energy needs; for instance the larger the group of retirement age people, the smaller their energy needs than are those for a younger group. Estimates indicate that by the year 2000 the energy impact will be toward higher per capita consumption with 60% of the population in the 19-61 age group of workers. Rising female labor force participation will increase the working group even more; it has also been found that income and energy grow at a proportional rate. The authors predict that gasoline consumption within the US will continue to rise with availability considering the larger number of female drivers and higher per capita incomes. The flow of illegal aliens (750,000/year) will have a major impact on income and will use greater amounts of energy than can be expected. A demographic change which will lower energy demands will be the slowdown of the rate of household formation caused by the falling number of young adults. The response of energy demand to price changes is small and slow but incomes play a larger role as does the number of personal automobiles and social changes affecting household formation. Households, commercial space, transportation, and industry are part of every demand analysis and population projections play a major role in determining these factors.     

How is suicide different in Japan?

This study investigates suicide rates among OECD countries, with particular effort made to gain insight into how suicide in Japan is different from suicides in other OECD countries. Several findings emerged from fixed-effect panel regressions with country-specific time-trends. First, the impacts of socioeconomic variables vary across different gender–age groups. Second, in general, better economic conditions such as high levels of income and higher economic growth were found to reduce the suicide rate, while income inequality increases the suicide rate. Third, the suicide rate is more sensitive to economic factors captured by real GDP per capita, growth rate of real GDP per capita, and the Gini index than to social factors represented by divorce rate, birth rate, female labor force participation rate, and alcohol consumption. Fourth, female and elderly suicides are more difficult to be accounted for. Finally, in accordance with general beliefs, Japan's suicide problem is very different from those of other OECD countries. The impact of the socioeconomic variables on suicide is greater in Japan than in other OECD countries.     

北京汽车消费需求的动态分析与预测

北京汽车消费进入快速增长时期,主要是私人汽车消费拉动了汽车消费总量的增长。北京汽车拥有量、私人汽车拥有量与地区人均GDP、人均可支配收入和公路客运量高度相关。计量分析表明,人均GDP、人均可支配收入对北京汽车消费、私人汽车消费的需求弹性影响显著。从长期来看,私人汽车消费需求的长期弹性值均大于1,富有弹性。预测结果显示,私人汽车消费需求仍处于大幅度增长的范围。     

The determinants of income inequality in Thailand: A synthetic cohort analysis

This paper presents tests and estimates of the human capital model of income inequality using synthetic cohort data for Thailand: 1992–2011. The model focuses on four primary determinants of income inequality: mean per capita income levels, the variances in years of education, in the number of children, and in the number of earners in the household. All of these factors are important sources of income inequality in Thailand, with relative impacts that differ across demographic groups and types of household structure. An inverted-U relation between mean per capita income levels and inequality is found, reflecting gender differences of the head of household, differences in household composition, and variation in access to finance. Although the human capital model emphasizes education, estimates presented here show other household characteristics, such as number of children and number of earners, can be even more important sources of inequality.     

Does Financial Intermediation Development Increase Per Capita Income in Rural China？

This paper investigates the impacts of financial intermediary （or banking） development on village-level per capita income using a Chinese dataset for selected years between 1993 and 2006. The empirical results from a random effect regression model indicate that mean per capita income in rural villages follows an inverted U-shaped path as financial intermediation develops. However, using a pooled quantile regression approach, we find that median per capita income in rural villages follows a positive linear path, rather than an inverted U-shaped path, as financial intermediation develops. The positive linear effect of financial intermediary development is observed at the lower and higher ends of the conditional per capita income distribution. This suggests that development of financial intermediation in China might not have statistically significant differential effects in low-income or high-income rural villages.     

Barriers to labor mobility and international trade: The case of China

This paper quantitatively evaluates the potential impacts of removing China's Hukou system on the world economy. By denying migrant workers the right to health benefits and housing, China's Household Registration (Hukou) system presents a significant distortion to the Chinese labor market that discourages the reallocation of its labor from agriculture to non-agriculture. I find that the elimination of Hukou could increase China's real income per capita by about 4.7%. Moreover, although for most countries the impact of removing Hukou is modest (less than 1% changes in real income per capita), substantial changes in real income could take place for China's small neighboring economies. For example, the decreases in real GDP per capita are 2.7%, 3.2%, and 4.1% for Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Vietnam, while Thailand stands to enjoy a 3.8% increase in its income.     

陕西省城乡居民消费的影响因素分析

文章指出,陕西城镇居民的收入和人均消费增长速度要高于农村居民。陕西城乡居民人均消费和人均可支配收入增长的速度大致相当,低于储蓄增长的速度,远不及地区生产总值增长速度和个人所得税增长的速度。这个结果说明,在现阶段,陕西城乡居民还没有很好地分享经济发展的成果,居民储蓄的意愿相当高,税负还比较重。