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经济增长理论中,动态效率低下指经济体储蓄、投资过多,消费未最大化的现象.美学者Abel(1989)提出AMSZ评判准则,即资本回报大于或等于资本投入时,经济动态有效.本文在分析经济增长动态效率理论基础上,使用AMSZ准则对东北三省经济增长动态效率进行测算.结果表明自2000年以来东北三省经济增长基本是动态有效的;但从2... 相似文献
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曹安定 《金融经济(湖南)》2009,(10):62-63
AMSZ准则作为一种依据现金流流向原则判断经济体运行的动态效率为中国学者在研究中国经济的动态效率时所广泛借鉴和使用,但是中国学者在借鉴和使用AMSZ准则判断中国经济的动态效率时候,错误的将私人投资等同与社会总投资,而且AMSZ准则本身也忽视了政府的作用,不利于判断一个经济总体的效率,因此本文在加入分权式政府作用的理论基础上,对AMSZ准则进行修正,并利用修正AMSZ准则,对中国经济的动态效率进行分析。本文研究结果表明中国经济是动态有效的,并以此推断中国经济的高投资率是合理的,而且是可持续的。 相似文献
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本文拟在考虑不同年度统计口径变化的基础上,同时从全国和省际的层面对我国自1995年以来国民经济是否属于动态有效情形进行考察。由于我国当前利率水平并非完全由市场机制形成,所以本文采用基于企业总资本利润率和基于ASMZ准则的两种方法来检验我国经济运行的动态效率。实证研究结果表明:从省际层面看,经济发展水平高的地区通常具有动态效率,而经济发展水平低的地区通常不具有动态效率;从全国层面看,我国国民经济自1995年以来,大部分时期属于动态无效率状态。 相似文献
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中国经济高速增长的同时伴随着较高的储蓄率。储蓄作为资本的重要来源对于经济增长有着重要的作用,然而过度储蓄对经济增长会产生一定的负面影响。文章从资本黄金律出发结合过度储蓄理论和经济发展的动态效率理论对最优储蓄进行理论分析。结合中国潜在经济增长率对最优储蓄率做出了测算,在预测基础上对经济增长与储蓄率的关系进行了实证分析,并提出最优储蓄率的判断标准,基于两种不同测算结果,本文提出了中国经济增长的最优储蓄率区间。最后结合实证分析提出政策建议。 相似文献
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中国金融发展和经济增长动态相关性检验 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
王林辉 《广东金融学院学报》2008,23(4):30-38
在中国,金融增长率和经济增长率各类成分关系存在非对称性,金融发展更多表现为经济增长的结果而不是原因。相对经济增长而言,金融发展的"跟随效应"显著。而金融发展和经济增长的均衡关系表明,当金融制度改革能够促使金融发展时,金融发展将更有效地促进经济增长。 相似文献
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当前中国出现了相对过剩的国内大规模储蓄和外资大量流进并存的现象;国际收支表现为双顺差和巨额外汇储备;与此同时,国内资金也在大规模的外流,出现了资本流动怪圈。这种资金供求非均衡状态有许多负面影响。而引进外资是现代化建设所必须的,因此,进行对外直接投资是一种较好的选择。 相似文献
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The study examines the impact of free zones exports and investments on economic growth in Ghana. A vector error correction model (VECM) was employed to ascertain the impact of the Free Zones Programme on economic growth in Ghana on a quarterly time series data spanning 1998–2015. The results show that both free zones exports and free zones investments have significant negative relationship with economic growth. Trade openness also has a significant negative relationship with economic growth but insignificant positive relationship with investment and export. The study concludes that the Free Zones Programme has not served its purpose of promoting economic growth in Ghana. It is universally known that the concept of free zones is actually a second best option and as such is not meant be a lasting policy for promoting economic growth. For this reason, given the negative effect the programme has had on economic growth, the Government of Ghana should scrap it and possibly look at opening up the whole country, especially in terms of infrastructure and other incentives for all firms, so that economic activity can freely take place in every corner of the country to realise balanced and more sustainable growth of the economy. 相似文献
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资本监管是银行业实施宏观审慎监管的核心内容,而银行资本在维持稳健经营和承担风险方面发挥着重要的作用。银行信贷构成了实体投资的主要来源,银行信贷规模变动带来的负面影响可能会造成经济的波动,侵害宏观经济增长。对我国银行业2003~2012年的情况进行的实证研究表明:监管压力增大会导致资本不足,银行信贷规模减少,当期监管压力值对当期信贷规模的作用比滞后一期监管压力值对当期信贷规模的作用更大一些。信贷规模对 GDP 的冲击效应是正向的。银行业资本监管压力对经济增长有一定的负面影响,但这种效应一般持续8个季度,这种负面影响在经济衰退时期表现得更为显著。 相似文献
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We analyze how the impact of a change in the sovereign debt-to-GDP ratio on economic growth depends on the level of debt, the stress level on the financial market and the membership in a monetary union. A dynamic growth model is put forward demonstrating that debt affects macroeconomic activity in a non-linear manner due to amplifications from the financial sector. Employing dynamic country-specific and dynamic panel threshold regression methods, we study the non-linear relation between the growth rate and the debt-to-GDP ratio using quarterly data for sixteen industrialized countries for the period 1981Q1-2013Q2. We find that the debt-to-GDP ratio has impaired economic growth primarily during times of high financial stress and only for countries of the European Monetary Union and not for the stand-alone countries in our sample. A high debt-to-GDP ratio by itself does not seem to necessarily negatively affect growth if financial markets are calm. 相似文献
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We study the impact of residential and non-residential investment on economic growth using U.S. data. Unlike previous studies
we include the external sector (net exports) in our estimations, and we calculate impulse response analysis using Pesaran
and Shin’s (Economics Letters 58:17–29, 1998) generalized impulse response approach. We find that shocks to residential investment
have a larger impact on GDP than shocks to non-residential investment, which supports the findings of the closed-economy approach
of Coulson and Kim (Real Estate Economics 28:233–247, 2000). However, a closed economy model tends to overstate the importance
of residential investment and understate the relevance of nonresidential investment.
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