Population Ageing and Projections of Government Social Outlays in Australia

This paper makes new projections of government social outlays for Australia. The calculations suggest that government social outlays will increase considerably as a percentage of GDP over the next 50 years, by 7.3 per cent of GDP in the base case. This is a greater increase than that found by previous investigators. Over 60 per cent of this increase will occur between 2011 and 2031, the years when the baby boom generation retires. The major contribution to this increase will have come from increased government outlays on social security. Lower rates of net immigration are shown to yield an even larger increase in the percentage of government social outlays in GDP. The paper also considers the disincentive effect of taxation and the effect of in-creasing the age of retirement. However, notwithstanding the trends suggested by the projections, the paper argues that there are a number of reasons to be sanguine about the implications of ageing on the share of government outlays in GDP.     

The Distributional Impact of Selected Commonwealth Outlays and Taxes and Alternative Commonwealth Grant Allocation Mechanisms

This article examines the redistributive impact of Commonwealth outlays and taxes (including outlays directed through and to the States)and two possible alternative systems of distributing Commonwealth funding amongst the States.     

Distributional Impact of Government Outlays on the Australian Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme in 2001–02

In recent years outlays on the Australian Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme have increased rapidly, prompting both attempts by government to reduce growth in outlays and renewed interest in the characteristics of the beneficiaries of the Scheme. This article uses a microsimulation model to analyse the distributional impact of Australian Government outlays on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme, by such characteristics as family income, family type, age, sex and lifecycle group. We find that there are pronounced distributional effects by such characteristics as income, age and sex, with both older and poorer Australians receiving far greater PBS benefits than younger and more affluent Australians.     

Lottery expenses and charitable contributions – Taiwan's experience

Individuals’ contributions are affected by their lottery outlays if they consider their spending of lottery funds on charities to be a substitute for or a complement to their direct charitable contributions. This study investigates the effect of lottery outlays on charitable contributions based on the experience of lottery introduction in Taiwan. The estimates reveal that lottery outlays exert a positive effect on charitable contributions while the quantitative impact is significant. This study thus provides evidence ameliorating the pessimistic prospect that people may reduce their direct charitable contributions when they spend more on lotteries. Possible explanations for the positive effect are also discussed.     

Economic Democracy: Solution or New Challenge ∗

Abstract Kaleckians and partisans of the capital monopoly approach have argued that additional outlays on unproductive labor increase economic activity under three conditions: investment is sensitive to realized rates of capacity utilization; savings out of wages and salaries are assumed away; prices are fixed by a markup over unit direct costs. The present model examines what happens when the last hypothesis is modified, i.e., when megacorps are assumed to fix prices on the basis of total unit costs, more specifically on the basis of target-return pricing procedures. Because higher costs are shifted on to productive labor, through higher prices and a reduction in their real wages, additional unproductive outlays may have a negative impact on economic activity. It turns out, in addition, that one must carefully distinguish between unproductive labor outlays and unproductive capital outlays when firms are assumed to shift these additional costs to consumers, on the basis of target-return pricing procedures.     

THE ALLOCATION OF FEDERAL FUNDS TO PROMOTE BUREAUCRATIC OBJECTIVES: AN EMPIRICAL TEST

This article tests whether Job Training Partnership Act Title III discretionary funds are allocated to meet bureaucratic objectives. These funds are targeted to provide a rapid response to mass layoffs or natural disasters and are therefore well suited for detecting political influence because program distributions are awarded contemporaneously and eligibility is difficult to anticipate. After controlling for worker displacements and disaster declarations, discretionary outlays are higher in states with close congressional races, politically active constituents, and powerful congressional representatives. There is additional evidence of politics in the reduction of aggregate outlays during presidential election years.     

Modeling crime in Japan

This study aims at identifying the factors of aggregate and disaggregate crime categories in Japan over the period 1964–2009. All crime categories are related to police outlays, police numbers, unemployment, divorce and urbanization rates. Bounds testing approach to cointegration is implemented to test the existence of a long-run relationship amongst the variables. Cointegration analysis yields that the main deterrent effect on crime is the police presence and this factor is further confirmed by the real police outlays. As for the essential cause of crime, urbanization stands as the leading factor which is followed by divorce and unemployment rates. Policy implications are discussed.     

Scale elasticities in Ghanaian cocoa production

The objective of this study is to develop a simultaneous equations model of profitability, concentration, advertising expenditures and research and development outlays. The data used in the estimation are subjected to regression diagnostics in an effort to determine the importance to the estimation results of a subset of the data that can have a disproportionate influence. The estimation results, especially for the advertising expenditures relationship and the research and development outlays equation, do change when a truncated data sample (based on the omission of the outliers) is used. This serves partly to explain why there is some disagreement in the literature on market structure and economic performance with regard to the impact of several economic factors.     

The Impact of Health, Education and Housing Outlays upon Income Distribution in Australia in the 1990s

The distributional impact of public expenditure on such programs as health, education and housing is frequently ignored in studies of income distribution. This may bias assessment of both the relative living standards of different types of families at any particular point in time and of trends in income inequality over time. This article provides estimates for the 1990s of the combined distributional impact of public outlays on health, education and housing. The analysis indicates that the major beneficiaries of public outlays on these services are families with children and the aged. The pattern of receipt shows a strong life-cycle effect, with the value of non-cash benefits peaking in the 30s and 40s and rising again in retirement. Non-cash benefits are also shown to have an equalising effect upon income distribution.     

The Public Accounts and Fiscal Policy

This article discusses the economy–wide effects of fiscal policy and major features of public outlays, receipts and debt trends in Australia.     

Testing competing models of loss aversion: an adversarial collaboration

This paper reports an ‘adversarial collaboration’—a project carried out by two individuals or research groups who, having proposed conflicting hypotheses, seek to resolve their dispute. It describes an experiment which investigates whether, when individuals consider giving up money in exchange for goods, they construe money outlays as losses or as foregone gains. This issue bears on the explanation of the widely observed disparity between willingness-to-pay (WTP) and willingness-to-accept (WTA) valuations of costs and benefits, which has proved problematic for contingent valuation studies. The results of the experiment are broadly consistent with the hypothesis that money outlays are perceived as losses.     

THE ACCOUNTING TREATMENT OF HUMAN INVESTMENT AND CAPITAL

Defining investment as outlays that increase income- and output-producing capacity, the author presents estimates of human investment in the United States 1929–69, comprising rearing costs, education, training, health, safety and mobility outlays. He develops an economic accounting framework to accommodate human investments and research and development in national and sector capital accounts, with appropriate adjustments to the current accounts to provide consistency. The associated balance sheets and wealth statements are also developed.
The wealth and corresponding income estimates are used to compute rates of return on human, non-human, and total capital. In the business economy the average net rate of return on total capital was 10.6 percent in 1969, compared with 10.0 percent in 1929. The average and marginal rates of return on human capital were generally somewhat higher than on non-human capital throughout the period.     

Sovereign Risk,Public Investment and the Fiscal Policy Stance

Of the different types of government outlays, since the 2000s public investment has been the main variable of adjustment during recessions in advanced and emerging economies. These contractions (expansions) have been associated with relatively medium-high (low) sovereign spreads, especially in advanced economies. To rationalize these issues, we develop a model of fiscal policy and sovereign default, with corporate default risk. Policymakers must decide between the provision of an unproductive public good and public investment, weighting their respective net benefits in terms of short-term stabilization and debt sustainability. In our model, investment follows a countercyclical stance only in the case of low levels of debt and moderate negative shocks, and otherwise contracts during recessions. The policy stance, along with the mix between different outlays, is determined by how sovereign risk responds to adverse economic shocks.     

Account-based retiree medical plans: what's good for your pension plan may be good for your retiree medical plan

Many of the same forces that caused employers to gravitate toward account-based pension plans are beginning to spark similar changes in retiree medical plans. As medical costs continue to escalate, account-based retiree medical plans offer a new way to manage company outlays, while preserving an important benefit for retirees.     

Endowment,industrial structure,and appropriate financial structure: a new structural economics perspective

Standard policy advice at times of fiscal adjustment is to protect public spending on the poor. However, the political economy of fiscal adjustment could well indicate the opposite direction, to protect the non‐poor from adjustment. This point is illustrated by three case studies based on research on social programs in Argentina, Bangladesh, and India, focusing on how targeting performance varied with aggregate outlays. The results suggest a tendency for program spending on the non‐poor that is protected from budget cuts.     

Political cycles in public expenditure: butter vs guns

This paper explores, theoretically and empirically, how governments may use the tradeoff between social and military expenditure to advance their electoral and partisan objectives. Three key results emerge. First, governments tend to bias outlays towards social expenditure and away from military expenditure at election times. Second, the size of this tradeoff is larger when we exclude countries involved in conflict, where national security plays an important role on voter choice. Third, while certain categories of social expenditure are higher during left administrations, military expenditure is higher during right administrations.     

R&D and economic growth: How strong is the link?

The present note examines the relationship between R&D outlays and economic growth in the OECD context and presents an argument, which confronted with data, cast doubts on the effectiveness of an innovation policy that attempts to improve aggregate productivity only based on increasing R&D intensity.     

Innovation Activity of the Polish Manufacturing Enterprises

This paper presents the results of analysis of innovative activities in the Polish manufacturing enterprises. Using data for the years 2006–2009, the effectiveness of innovative activities is estimated under two groups of models. The results indicate the significantly positively impact of soft expenditures on innovation activity and ineffectiveness of material outlays. Additionally, a significant, positive effect is demonstrated of the support from the European Union upon the efficiency of innovative activities in the Polish companies.     

The intertemporal substitution effect of government purchases on the interest rate: Empirical estimates for the Netherlands

In an intertemporal equilibrium setting, temporary government purchases may affect the real interest rate. A temporary change in the level of government spending does not affect the optimal intertemporal allocation of rational consumers, who will therefore try to maintain their consumption plans. Assuming no change in the supply of goods, there is an excess demand for goods and in a closed economy the real interest rate has to rise to maintain equilibrium at the goods market. In this paper it is examined whether predictions of intertemporal substitution models hold up to the experience of the Netherlands. We extend Barro's empirical work in three ways. First, we construct a new measure of temporary government outlays. Second, we take the time series behaviour of the data concerned into account and employ a less restrictive specification for the equation to be estimated. Third, we examine the intertemporal substitution effect of government purchases onreal interest rates. Our results provide only mixed support for the hypothesis that temporary government purchases raise real interest rates. It turns out that only temporary military outlays affect the nominal and real interest rate.     

A dynamic analysis of fiscal pressure and demographic transition

In this paper, the effects of demographic changes, particularly in the age structure of population, on government social expenditure is estimated. The results indicate that income elasticity of government social services is unitary in high income countries and above that level in low income countries, especially in education and welfare. The paper attempts also to forecast the pressure of these government outlays in four distinct countries characterized by different demographic parameters.