Technology and military criteria: broadening the theory of innovation

The assessment and forecasting of technological innovation should include an evaluation of both civilian and military criteria. While the underlying economic causes of technological innovation generate considerable interest, these evaluations only rarely pay adequate attention to military factors. Spinoffs from military work to the private sector often circumvent the market constraints on technological development, suggesting the limitations of purely economic analysis.Military resources provide the greatest support to civilian technologies that are concurrent with military interests. Likely areas of military-civilian synergism can be identified through the evaluation of military interest. This includes rapid mobilization of large forces of personnel and materials. Among the areas of concentrated interest are the centralization of command and control, and its support requirements of transportation, communication, standardization, and subordination. Also, the nature of violent conflict and the organization of large military forces frequently argues for the removal of human intervention through technology. The corresponding civilian interests include business criteria for obtaining economies of scale, expanding revenues, and reducing labor cost through labor productivity.This paper explores the possibility of broadening the economic theories of technological change by incorporating military influence. The theory presented views military and civilian technology as encompassing both unique and overlapping design criteria. The overlapping region defines technological criteria likely to experience faster than average development. Specific military criteria are derived from the functional requirements of violent conflict—military strategy, tactics, and organization. Compatible and incompatible civilian criteria can then be explored.     

The defence industry as a locomotive for technological renewal in Russia: are the conditions in place?

This article examines the extent to which the conditions for successful military to civilian technological spin-offs are in place in Russia. This is important because Russian authorities use the potential for such spin-offs as one of several arguments for justifying large defence expenditure. Six conditions are identified, all of which are derived from the theoretical literature on the transfer of technology from the military to civilian sector. We conclude that despite some government efforts to generate spin-offs by providing technology brokering, and despite some joint military–civilian technological development taking place within defence industry enterprises, most of the conditions required to generate substantial technology transfer from the military to civilian sector are not present in Russia.     

基于SD的军民技术融合影响因素研究

军民技术融合是军民融合的重要内容,其影响因素众多繁杂,运用科学方法厘清军民技术融合影响因素和影响过程,为实现全要素、多领域、高效益的军民融合发展格局提供理论支撑,对于统筹国防建设和经济建设发展、保障国家安全、增强国防竞争力具有重要价值。将军民技术融合系统分为技术转移、技术创新、技术标准3个子系统,通过分析3个子系统间关系,界定军民技术融合系统边界,构建军民技术融合系统动力学模型。以航空航天业为例,验证模型的合理性,通过仿真分析,得出政府政策、技术标准、发明专利对新产品销售收入贡献率是影响军民技术融合的重要因素,进而揭示各变量与军民技术融合的内在联系。最后,根据研究结论,提出促进军民技术融合的对策建议。     

THE FUTURE OF THE U.S. DEFENSE INDUSTRY

Defense contractors in the United States face a painful choice between downsizing or investing in new high-risk commercial ventures. Past experience reveals numerous failed efforts to penetrate commercial markets and few, if any, successes.
The capabilities required to succeed in civilian business are fundamentally different from those needed to design and produce weapon systems. Defense firms and defense divisions of diversified corporations lack adequate knowledge of commercial products, production methods, advertising and distribution, financial approaches, and customer demand.
Given the outlook for a sustained decline in U.S. military spending, the author advises companies catering to military markets to cut their costs by reducing excess capacity. Smaller but more competitive positions can be achieved through restructuring, mergers, sales of assets, and, if necessary, closing down unneeded facilities. Firms that ignore the pleas for "conversion" and do not dissipate their assets in civilian markets alien to them stand the best chance of surviving during a period of reduced military demand.     

我国军民科技深度融合发展基本态势与主要模式研究

加快建立健全军民融合创新体系,形成全要素、多领域、高效益的军民科技深度融合发展新格局,是国家军民融合战略和创新驱动发展战略的基础工程、关键环节和先导领域,事关国家安全与发展。未来,我国军民科技深度融合发展在目标定位、规划引领、机制设计、重点领域等方面已逐步清晰。在遵循经济建设和国防建设规律的基础上,从军民用技术特性、产业组织形态、政府引导和市场机制作用等方面出发,深入总结比较分析军工优势技术溢出、民用先进技术转移、军民技术双向循环3种军民科技融合模式,有助于推动军民科技基础要素融合和协同创新,促进军民技术双向转移转化。     

多场耦合下军民融合产业嵌入区域经济发展研究

在利用文献元分析法、因子分析法提取出军民融合产业与区域经济发展耦合评价指标的基础上,构建了两系统交互作用的耦合协调度模型,并以陕西省电子及通信设备制造业为例,探究了多场耦合下军民融合产业与区域经济发展的耦合关系与机理。     

国防工业军民融合发展国际化：路径与实现

国防工业军民融合发展国际化是发达国家国防工业发展的普遍做法。从已有研究成果看，学界尚未就国防工业军民融合发展国际化问题进行专门系统的研究。依据学界对国际化和军民融合发展的理解，界定国防工业军民融合发展国际化基本内涵，在此基础上将国防工业军民融合发展国际化基本路径区分为国防工业军民融合发展“引进来”和“走出去”，揭示军用民用产品跨国贸易、军民品跨国研制生产、军事民用领域跨国投资、军民领域跨国经济合作、军民标准运用跨国对接、军工民用企业跨国联盟等国防工业军民融合发展国际化实现形式的内涵机理。推进国防工业军民融合发展国际化，有助于更好地利用国内外军民两种资源优势、发挥国内外军民两个市场作用，从而加快国防工业军民融合深度发展,提高国防工业发展质量效应。     

国防工业军民融合发展国际化：路径与实现

国防工业军民融合发展国际化是发达国家国防工业发展的普遍做法。从已有研究成果看，学界尚未就国防工业军民融合发展国际化问题进行专门系统的研究。依据学界对国际化和军民融合发展的理解，界定国防工业军民融合发展国际化基本内涵，在此基础上将国防工业军民融合发展国际化基本路径区分为国防工业军民融合发展“引进来”和“走出去”，揭示军用民用产品跨国贸易、军民品跨国研制生产、军事民用领域跨国投资、军民领域跨国经济合作、军民标准运用跨国对接、军工民用企业跨国联盟等国防工业军民融合发展国际化实现形式的内涵机理。推进国防工业军民融合发展国际化，有助于更好地利用国内外军民两种资源优势、发挥国内外军民两个市场作用，从而加快国防工业军民融合深度发展,提高国防工业发展质量效应。     

生产性服务业集聚对西部军民融合深度发展的影响

西部装备制造业作为军民融合产业的重要产业形态,其转型升级直接影响军民融合产业的深度发展。随着云计算、物联网与大数据等高新技术的发展,生产性服务业作为与制造业相伴而生的产业,其产业空间集聚对促进以装备制造业为主的军民融合产业升级的作用日益显著。从产业空间集聚视角,以西部装备制造业为例,基于2003—2014年西部10个省市的面板数据,运用空间计量模型,实证分析生产性服务业集聚对西部军民融合产业升级的影响。研究表明:①西部军民融合产业升级的空间相关性显著,西部军民融合产业的生产效率具有正向空间相关性,在空间上并非随机分布,而是存在依赖性;②生产性服务业集聚对西部军民融合产业升级具有显著的正向促进作用;③外商直接投资、国家资本占比、信息化水平正向影响西部军民融合产业升级。生产性服务业集聚对西部军民融合产业升级发展具有积极影响。因此,引导西部生产性服务业空间集聚发展可以作为促进西部军民融合产业转型升级与深度融合发展的政策选择。     

军民融合"隐形冠军"企业创新特征研究

中小企业一般专注于某一细分行业产品研发、生产和经营,具有较高市场份额但社会知名度较低。当前,我国军民融合战略由初步融合进入深度融合加速阶段,“隐形冠军”企业成为一支不可忽视的力量。分析军民融合“隐形冠军”企业内涵、发展现状与需求发现,军民融合“隐形冠军”企业具有管理创新、技术创新、融资创新、市场创新、价值链创新5个维度组成的创新特征,并结合案例——军民融合“隐形冠军”企业高德红外进行剖析,认为提升军民融合“隐形冠军”企业创新能力,政府应从加快军民融合创新体系建设、加强知识产权保护以及建立健全金融财政支撑体系等方面营造良好的制度政策环境,企业应从培育企业研发人才队伍、构筑创新型企业文化及抓住发展机遇等方面培育其核心竞争力。     

军民融合高技术产业创新体系建设研究——以陕西省为例

从"军民融合"战略思想的产生和发展入手,通过归纳军民融合高技术产业创新体系的基本情况,剖析了创新体系中存在的问题及原因,构建了政府引导和市场机制相结合,以企业为科技创新主体、中介和金融机构为沟通桥梁和资金保证、大学和科研机构为研究支撑的军民融合高技术产业创新体系,同时提出在产业经济学视角下,创新体系的构建要考虑产业结构、产业组织以及产业布局等基本要素,以走出一条军民融合高技术及产业化发展的有效途径。     

Optimal military spending in the US: A time series analysis

This paper extends previous work on the optimal size of government spending by including nested functional decompositions of military spending into consumption and investment. Post World War II US data are then used to estimate nested non-linear growth models using semi-parametric methods. As expected, investments in military and non-military expenditure are both found to be productive expenditures with respect to the private production. Moreover there is little evidence to suggest that current military spending is having a negative impact on economic growth in the US, while civilian consumption only tends to have only a weak impact. This does not imply that society will necessarily benefit from a reallocation of more spending to the military sector, nor that it is the best way to achieve economic growth.     

Technical change in the commercial aircraft industry, 1925–1975

The American commercial aircraft industry has complied an extremely impressive record of performance in innovation and growth in output. This paper assesses the impact of government policy during a fifty-year period upon innovative performance and market structure in the commercial aircraft industry. In general, this apparent success of government policies in supporting rapid technical change in the industry reflects the impact of these policies upon both the supply of technological knowledge and the demand for innovative aircraft designs. The success of this policy structure has implications for technology policies in other industries.     

军民融合型科技工业协同创新体系构建研究

军民融合型科技工业协同创新体系是国防科技工业和国家高科技产业发展的基础与内在动力。基于国际比较视角,从激励机制、约束机制及法律政策保障等方面比较美日德等发达国军民融合型协同创新体系发展情况,构建我国军民融合型科技工业协同创新体系,探讨“国防需求拉动”、“民用需求拉动”和“科学研究推动”3种动力机制下军民融合型科技工业协同创新体系运行模式。     

国防工业军民融合水平测度与对策研究

国防工业军民融合水平包括军民融合广度、融合层次、融合深度。构建了国防工业军民融合水平评价指标体系,并通过相关指标权重计算出相应的评价指标值。国防工业军民融合水平受军民融合主体经济效益、军民关系制度安排和军民技术双向转移状况等因素的影响和制约。为了提高国防工业军民融合水平,需提高融合主体的经济效益,完善军民关系制度安排,畅通军民技术双向转移渠道。     

技术差距、军用成果转化率与军事工业研发竞争研究

在军民融合深度发展背景下,需要引导民品企业参与军事工业研发,以改进武器装备长期以来高端供给能力不足的问题。当前情况下,民品企业与军工企业间存在着技术差距,同时军用成果转化率不高造成技术溢出不对称。通过建立博弈模型,分析技术差距和军用成果转化率对军工企业、民品企业研发竞争的影响。结果发现,技术差距和军用成果转化率都不同程度影响民品企业研发意愿,阻碍民品企业参与竞争;军民企业间保持适度的技术差距和提高军用成果转化率可以提升社会研发总效率。此外,促使军工企业和民品企业共同研发,可以使社会研发效率帕累托改进效果更好。     

中国国防工业全要素生产率测算与分析

利用2004—2020年中国11大军工集团财务报表数据,从企业微观角度出发,运用LP方法计算国防工业全要素生产率并分析其变化趋势。结果表明,样本期内,我国国防工业全要素生产率总体呈波动上升趋势,其增长率高于制造业整体水平但低于高技术产业增速,说明国防工业技术进步比较明显,但进步速率还不够高;各细分军工行业全要素生产率存在较大差异,电子工业和船舶工业全要素生产率均值比其它军工行业高。收敛性分析表明,国防工业中,全要素生产率较低企业对较高企业具有追赶效应。建议军工行业必须转变增长方式,向集约型发展方式转变,提高发展质量;加大研发投入力度,重点扶持技术发展相对缓慢的行业,促进军工行业协调发展;贯彻军民融合发展战略,促进先进民用技术转军用。     

Understanding the Defense Conversion Dilemma

Two major sectors of the economy—commercial and defense—are facing extensive change and are undergoing considerable downsizing. The defense sector was forced in recent years to adjust to a post-Cold War era and to find commercial uses for many of its military-related technologies, and the commercial industry is challenged by increased competition, higher productivity goals, and higher demand for quality products and shorter development cycles. Under these circumstances, conversion from defense into commercial activity became inevitable, and joint ventures of defense and commercial companies are common. Yet, many conversion attempts are unsuccessful, with failures attributed to differences in culture, practices, and experience of the two sectors. The purpose of this article is to discuss the defense conversion problem faced by defense contractors for a better understanding of the difficulties associated with conversion efforts. We start by discussing briefly the situation, policy, and environment of the American industrial base—government, defense. We then suggest a specific conceptual framework for analyzing the conversion dilemma. Such a framework may help defense companies during the decision-making process while considering transitions into civilian markets and serve as a basis for additional research on the defense conversion dilemma.     

Intellectual capital and new product development performance: The mediating role of organizational learning capability

Previous studies rarely examined the relationship between intellectual capital and organizational learning capability. Moreover, most studies neglect the mediating effect of organizational learning capability in the relationship between intellectual capital and new product development performance. This study uses interviews and the survey method to discuss the relationships governing intellectual capital, organizational learning capability, and new product development performance. Results are based on empirical data from Taiwan's IC design industry, and are generated by the Partial Least Squares (PLS) method. Results show that human capital and relational capital actually improve new product development performance through organizational learning capability. Although structural capital positively affects organizational learning capability, managers should pay attention to possibly negative effects of structural capital on new product development performance. Relational capital is the greatest factor among these three types of intellectual capital in Taiwanese IC design companies, structural capital is second, and human capital is last. Comparing three types of intellectual capital of Taiwan's large enterprises with those of Taiwan's small and medium enterprises (SMEs) reveals that the relational capital of Taiwan's SMEs is marginally less than that of large enterprises.     

政策组合能否促进民参军企业协同创新——基于演化博弈的数值仿真视角

军民科技协同创新是构建军民一体化国家战略体系和能力的重要内容,营造良好的政策环境是推进军民科技协同创新的重要方式。以民参军企业、科研院所和政府为博弈主体构建三方博弈演化模型,通过系统分析政策支持对博弈主体策略选择的影响过程,利用Matlab数值仿真分析不同政策及政策组合支持对民参军企业与科研院所协同创新的影响。结果表明,政府对不同创新主体应采用不同组合政策支持,直接政策与间接政策对鼓励民参军企业开展协同创新更加有效,营造良好的创新环境有利于科研院所选择协同创新策略;政府需要采用合理的政策组合支持军民协同创新,中强度的直接与间接政策以及低强度的创新环境政策组合相较单一政策支持对民参军企业与科研院所协同创新更有效。