Risk and Return in the 20th and 21st Centuries

The single most important contemporary issue in finance is the equity risk premium. This drives future equity returns, and is the key determinant of the cost of capital. The risk premium – the expected reward for bearing the risk of investing in equities, rather than in low-risk investments such as bills or bonds – is usually estimated from historical data. This article starts by summarising new evidence on historical returns in twelve major world markets from the authors' recent book, 'The Millennium Book: A Century of Investment Returns'. The authors show that the historical equity risk premium has been lower than previously believed, and argue that the future risk premium is likely to be lower still. They discuss what this implies for the cost of capital, stock market values, and companies' target rates of return. They suggest that many companies are seeking too high a rate of return and thus run the risk of under-investing.     

Does home bias affect firm value? Evidence from holdings of mutual funds worldwide

This study finds strong evidence that home bias affects firm valuation at both country and firm levels. At the country level, increasing the bias of domestic investors toward home equity lowers the market valuation of home equity. At the firm level, firm value increases as the compositions of local equities held by domestic and foreign investors tend toward the firms' global market capitalization weights, but decreases as their weights deviate from global weights. Overall, the evidence is consistent with the optimal global risk-sharing hypothesis that the greater risk sharing between domestic and foreign investors in international capital markets reduces the cost of capital and hence enhances market valuation.     

Option implied cost of equity and its properties

The estimation of the cost of equity capital (COE) is one of the most important tasks in financial management. Existing approaches compute the COE using historical data, i.e. they are backward‐looking methods. This study derives a method to calculate forward‐looking estimates of the COE using the current market prices of stocks and stock options. Our estimates of the COE reflect the expectation of the market investors about the COE during the life of the investment project. We test empirically our method and compare it with the Fama/French (1993) three‐factor model for the S&P 100 firms. The empirical results indicate that our COE estimates (1) are plausible and stable over the years as required by appropriate discount rates for capital budgeting, (2) yield an equity risk premium close to the market equity risk premium reported by Fama E. F. and French K. R. (2002), (3) generate strong return‐risk relationships, and (4) are significantly related with investor sentiment. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 29: 599–629, 2009     

Systematic Risk in Conventional and Islamic Equity Markets

We aim to compare the systematic risk in conventional and Islamic equity markets by introducing two dynamic risk measures. Accordingly, the level of the systematic risk in conventional markets is slightly higher than the risk in Islamic markets for most of the time. However, this difference is significant in less than 3% of the sample period. More importantly, there is no significant difference in the levels of systematic risk during the global financial crisis of 2008, suggesting that Islamic equities are not able to provide a lower market risk compared with their conventional counterparts in financial turbulent times.     

Examining the Return–Volatility Relation for Foreign Exchange: Evidence from the Euro VIX

We compare the return–volatility relation for the euro currency to the equivalent relation for the equity market, examining the sign, symmetry, and strength of the relation. We employ the euro‐currency exchange‐traded fund (FXE) and its associated option implied volatility index (the EVZ), whereas previous studies only employ equities and/or realized volatility. The equity studies find a negative asymmetric return–volatility relation for implied volatility, with a strong relation when large market movements occur. We find that the euro return–volatility relation can possess either a positive or negative sign, is asymmetric, and has a weaker relation. Thus, the sign and strength of the euro relation differs from the equivalent equity relation. Our quantile regressions show that both the positive and negative contemporaneous returns of the euro result in increased volatility in the extreme quantiles of the conditional distribution, with the contemporaneous effect showing a stronger relation when the euro depreciates. We also find that the volume of the euro‐currency ETF options affects the return–volatility relation for the euro ETF. Overall, the results here expand the concept originally restricted to equities, with the surprising results that the return‐implied volatility relation is weaker and the asymmetric return sometimes is positive for the euro currency. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 34:74–92, 2014     

Seasoned equity offerings by small and medium-sized enterprises

Most analyses of small firms’ decision to seek outside equity financing and the conditions thereof concern private firms. Knowledge of the risk and return of entrepreneurial ventures for outside investors is consequently limited. This paper attempts to fill this gap by examining the Canadian context, where small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are allowed to list on a stock market. We analyze seasoned equity offerings launched by SMEs over the last decade. These public issuers can be considered low quality firms with poor operating performance. Managers issue equity before a large decrease in operating and stock market performance. Individual investors do not price the stocks correctly around the issue and incur significant negative returns in the years following the issue. This is particularly true for constrained issuers. We confirm that entrepreneurial outside equity attracts lemons and that individual investors cannot invest wisely in emerging ventures. Probably as a consequence of individual investors’ lack of skill and rationality, the cost of outside equity financing of Canadian public SMEs is abnormally low.     

Estimates of the cost of equity for public utilities, 1961–1976

Using a simple version of the dividend cash flow (DCF) model of stock valuation, the cost of equity for public utilities is often inferred to be equal to the sum of the dividend yield and the expected rate of growth in dividends. Witnesses who employ this approach generally extrapolate past growth patterns into the future and then assume that investors expect these trends to continue; no effort is made to actually assess the expectations of investors. This approach to estimating the cost of equity for public utilities is criticized for the failure to develop testable hypotheses as an inferential basis for testing the statistical reliability of estimates of the cost of equity. This article demonstrates an alternative to the traditional approach, based on the premise that reliable estimates of the cost of equity are derived only within a methodological framework that produces testable hypotheses. The Gordon model of share valuation is formulated in such a way as to show that there is a systematic and predictable relationship between the ratio of market price to book value of common stock and a firm's normal or expected return on equity. This relationship suggests an econometric model that not only tests the Gordon model of share valuation but produces at the same time, inferences concerning the cost of equity. Using this approach, year-end estimates of the cost of equity for electric utilities are determined for the 16-yr period from 1961 to 1976.     

Exchange rate fluctuations and international portfolio rebalancing

We present empirical evidence for several hypotheses of how exchange rates are affected by investors' cross-border equity portfolio rebalancing decisions. Our results are based on comprehensive, daily-frequency datasets of foreign exchange market transactions and equity market capital flows undertaken by nonresident investors in Thailand in 2005 and 2006. We find that net purchases of Thai equities by nonresident investors systematically lead to an appreciation of the Thai baht. Furthermore, higher returns on Thai equities relative to those on a reference market are associated with subsequent sales of Thai equities by foreign investors as well as a depreciation of the Thai baht, although the latter effect is not statistically significant.     

The US stock market and the international value of the US dollar

We investigate the spillover effect of the US equity market on the value of the dollar and therefore on the return and volatility of US equity investments for the international investor. The data are daily observations of the S & P 500 and the US dollar in terms of seven foreign currencies covering the period 1971–2002. Using Geweke measures of feedback, we find a high percentage of contemporaneous association between daily movements in the S & P 500 index and changes in the value of the dollar. A consistently positive relationship between the S & P 500 and the dollar is found for the period 1992–2002, creating a compounding effect for the foreign investor in US equities. However, investment by foreigners in US equities did not result in consistently higher returns but in higher volatility compared to their US counterparts for the period 1971–2002.     

Transmission of central bank communication to emerging economies: Evidence from the Korean stock market

This study analyzes the impact of US central bank communication on financial markets in emerging economies. We find that informal communication from the Fed positively influences the Korean stock market at a greater magnitude than the US stock market. The results show that the Korean stock market experienced higher excess return when Korea's monetary policy decisions are uncertain, suggesting that central bank communication in central countries could transmit to emerging economics through their monetary policy decisions and uncertainty. In addition, various portfolios and individual equities have a positive market risk-return tradeoff in the presence of Fed communication only.     

Separating the wheat from the chaff: Understanding portfolio returns in an emerging market

In this paper we apply Random Matrix Theory (RMT) to study daily return correlations of 83 companies that are part of the Chilean stock market during the period 2000 to 2011. We find that using RMT to identify statistically significant correlations within our sample of stocks significantly improves the efficiency of a family of Markowitz Portfolios. Moreover, by using Vector Autoregressive analysis we identify global risk aversion as the main driver of the Chilean equity market returns followed in importance by shocks to the monthly rate of inflation and the country's monetary policy rate. By studying the effects of macroeconomic variables on the constructed portfolio returns we reach a better understanding of the true risks involved in an emerging market portfolio.     

美国贸易政策不确定性与新兴经济体跨境股票资本流动北大核心CSSCI

本文使用1996年2月-2020年1月35个新兴经济体的跨境股票型基金微观数据,实证考察美国贸易政策不确定性对新兴经济体跨境股票资本流动的影响。结果表明:美国贸易政策不确定性上升会导致新兴经济体跨境股票型基金净资本流入下降,这一影响在2008年全球金融危机后更为显著。受国别因素影响,美国贸易政策不确定性的影响存在异质性。一国外汇风险暴露水平更高、国际金融一体化风险更大、与美国直接贸易联系更紧密,受到的美国贸易政策不确定性的影响更显著,更高的利率水平有利于缓解美国贸易政策不确定性的影响。从全球价值链视角来看,美国贸易政策不确定性上升对处于研发密集型行业下游和邮政通讯、金融商业服务等行业下游的经济体影响显著。渠道分析表明,全球投资者对新兴经济体的国别风险情绪变化是美国贸易政策不确定性冲击的重要传导渠道。进一步研究表明,中美贸易摩擦期间,主要受美国贸易政策不确定性影响,加征关税会显著降低新兴经济体跨境股票型基金净资本流入。在金融开放进程中,新兴经济体应防范外部不确定性引发的资本流动剧烈波动风险,保持宏观经济与金融市场稳定。     

论政府隐性担保对我国证券市场微观效率的影响

政府隐性担保机制是我国证券市场运行的基础,也是市场风险聚集的根源。这种隐性担保通过一系列制度性安排造成市场主体过于追求市场隐含的政策性租金而忽视对市场价值体系的培育与发现,造成市场事前筛选和事后监督机制失效,使投资者决策面临更加不稳定的环境,增加了市场的不确定性。     

Do futures‐based strategies enhance dynamic portfolio insurance?

In this paper we investigate the relative performance of two approaches to dynamic portfolio insurance: the synthetic put and the Constant Proportion Portfolio Insurance (CPPI). The investigation is conducted on the Australian market, over a sample period of 59 non‐overlapping quarters from December 1987 to December 2002. Its main contribution is to provide a comprehensive assessment of the two approaches under different market conditions, and the testing of ex ante information as an input into the trading program. The major finding is that the futures‐based implementation of both synthetic put and the CPPI approach is robust to both tranquil and turbulent market conditions in preserving the desired floor. The fact that this conclusion includes the case of employing implied volatility (obtained from the options market) is highly encouraging as it suggests high implementability of the strategy. Notably, the risk‐return tradeoff shows that portfolio insurance using this volatility measure yields a return that is 64 basis points over the risk free investment. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:591–608, 2004     

Variance and skew risk premiums for the volatility market: The VIX evidence

We extract variance and skew risk premiums from volatility derivatives in a model-free way and analyze their relationships along with volatility index and equity index returns. These risk premiums can be synthesized through option trading strategies. Using a time series of option prices on the VIX, we find that variance swap excess return can be partially explained by volatility index and equity index excess returns while these latter variables carry little information for the skew swap excess return. The results sharply contrast with those obtained for the equity index option market underlining very specific characteristics of the volatility derivative market.     

Country selection of emerging equity markets: benefits from country attribute diversification

We propose a multivariate scoring model based on four classes of variables to predict future returns of 23 emerging equity markets. For the periods 1986–1995 and 1996–2003, our long–short portfolio (11 top/bottom ranked countries) posts a quarterly significant average raw return and a quarterly significant average market risk-adjusted return. The all-classes model dominates the one-class-models. Results from this strategy are robust regardless of whether we concentrate on the 6 top/bottom countries, reduce the emerging market universe to the largest countries, eliminate the most rewarding country during the period, use different scores, or account for realistic implementation costs.     

Mexico's integration into the North American capital market

We explore a model of time varying regional market integration that includes three factors for the North American equity market, the local Mexican equity market and the peso/dollar exchange rate. We argue that a useful instrument for the degree of integration is the sovereign yield spread. Applying our methodology to Mexico over the 1991–2002 period, we show that the degree of market integration was higher at the end of the period than at the beginning but that it exhibited wide swings that were related to both global as well as local events. We also discover that Mexico's currency risk is priced. Further, the currency returns process reveals strongly significant asymmetric volatility that is strongly related to the asymmetric volatility of the Mexican equity market returns process. A plausible reason for these results is that currency devaluations in emerging markets like Mexico can cause default-risk crises in local banking systems that mismatch local-currency assets and hard currency liabilities, whereas appreciations produce no such problems. Devaluations that destabilize banking systems are, therefore, more likely than appreciations to increase the volatilities of both the currency's and the equity market's returns.     

International strategy and subsidiary performance in China

This study examines the underlying relationship between type of international strategy (global, multidomestic, and transnational) and subsidiary performance in the context of the People's Republic of China. After controlling for cultural, size, and equity effects, it is found that strategy type is important for the overall performance of international expansion. Different strategies affect multinational enterprise (MNE) subunits' performance differently. While global strategy is systematically related to low risk but suffers from loss of growth opportunities in an emerging market, multidomestic strategy is positively associated with local market expansion but comes at the expense of high uncertainty. Overall, transnational strategy outperforms other postures in aligning with a dynamic emerging market and attaining benefits from both ownership-specific and country-specific advantages. Transnational strategy increases operating flexibility which in turn spurs managerial discretion to respond profitably to the business potential of the global marketplace. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Are green bonds priced lower than their conventional peers?

The green bond market's rapid growth has alerted issuers and investors to this sustainable area of investment. This study ascertains whether green bonds are priced lower than conventional bonds—whether a negative green bond premium exists in both Chinese and global bond markets—and the driving forces behind any such green bond premium. First, an event study is set up to observe stock market's reaction upon issuance of green bonds to test whether green bonds are embedded with additional value by improving the issuer's equity market performance. Then, using the matching method and a two-layer regression process, the study estimates the green bond premium in the Chinese and global markets, respectively, and analyses factors affecting the green bond premium. The event study reveals that green bond issuance could reduce the issuer's equity return performance. The regression models found no significant negative green bond premium in either Chinese or global markets, indicating that green bonds are not priced significantly lower than conventional bonds. However, global market models show that issuing green bonds in CNY could reduce the green bond premium, unlike in USD or EUR.     

The volatility effect in emerging markets

We examine the empirical relation between risk and return in emerging equity markets and find that this relation is flat, or even negative. This is inconsistent with theoretical models such as the CAPM, which predict a positive relation, but consistent with the results of studies for developed equity markets. The volatility effect appears to be growing stronger over time, which we argue might be related to the increased delegated portfolio management in emerging markets. Finally, we find that the volatility effect in emerging markets is only weakly related to that in developed equity markets, which argues against a common-factor explanation.