Creativity over time and space

Creativity is often highly concentrated in time and space, and across different domains. What explains the formation and decay of clusters of creativity? We match data on notable individuals born in Europe between the eleventh and the nineteenth centuries with historical city data. The production and attraction of creative talent is associated with city institutions that protected economic and political freedoms and promoted local autonomy. Instead, indicators of local economic conditions such as city size and real wages, do not predict creative clusters. We also show that famous creatives are spatially concentrated and clustered across disciplines, that their spatial mobility has remained stable over the centuries, and that creative clusters are persistent but less than population.

     

State and religion over time

State and religion, two of the oldest institutions known to mankind, have historically had a close relationship with each other, but the disestablishment of state religions has been one of the most drastic institutional transformations that has taken place in the modern era. We offer a systematic analysis of the development of secular states based on a political economy approach that is centered on the notion of legitimacy. Viewing religion as a legitimizing force for political leaders, we consider the factors affecting the cost and benefits of alternative sources of legitimacy, such as the differential abilities of religious and secular sources to legitimize political rulers and historical inertia that shaped the cost of monitoring legitimizing agents. To examine this argument empirically, we built a cross-national time-series dataset for the relationship between state and religion since the year 1000. We first use the data to examine the evolution of secularism over time and its variation across religious traditions. We then use regression analysis and an instrumental variables approach to identify the influences on the adoption of secular state, such as concentration in the religion market, religious differences between rulers and the general population, historical inertia of a state, and the prevailing political regime. We address endogeneity concerns regarding the relationship between religious concentration and state secularism by exploiting variation among territories in their geographic distance to religious “capitals” of the world as an instrument.     

On business cycle fluctuations in USA macroeconomic time series

This study employs eighteen USA macroeconomic time series variables to investigate possible existence of asymmetries in business cycle fluctuations in the series. Detection of asymmetric fluctuations in economic activity is important for policymakers since effective monetary policy relies on asymmetric business cycle fluctuations in all the series. The asymmetric deviations from the long-term growth trend in each of the series are modeled using regime switching models and artificial neural networks. The results based on nonlinear switching time series models reveal strong evidence of business cycle asymmetries in most of the series. The results based on in-sample approximations from artificial neural networks show statistically significant evidence of asymmetries in all the series. Similar results are obtained when jackknife out-of-sample approximations from artificial neural networks are used. Thus, the study results show statistically significant evidence of asymmetries in all the series which indicates that business cycle fluctuations in the series are asymmetric, thus alike. Therefore, the impact of monetary policy shocks on the output and the other macroeconomic variables can be anticipated using nonlinear models only. The results on asymmetric business cycle fluctuations in real GDP are in line with recent studies but in sharp contrast with Balke and Fomby (1994).     

Well-being and the Great Recession in Spain

This letter assesses the impact of the Great Recession on well-being in Spanish provinces using two alternative composite indicators of objective well-being that include somewhat different dimensions. Whereas the crisis notably eroded economic well-being, its impact on overall well-being – which in addition to economic dimensions also includes non-economic ones – was imperceptible. This result points to the need to carefully define and assess well-being in empirical analyses.     

Well-being and war

Happiness research has dealt with a great number of determinants of well-being but has neglected the effect of war. Wars drastically reduce people??s happiness. The large psychic costs of soldiers, the suffering of civilians, and the material destruction are well documented. An important issue for happiness research is how to calculate the forgone well-being of the people killed in war. Wars may also increase happiness by providing shared experiences, raising national pride, and ??ennobling?? people. ??Combat flow?? increases an individual soldier??s subjective happiness. Deep issues are elicited regarding what type of happiness is legitimate.     

Decomposing changes in the conditional variance of GDP over time

A well established fact in the growth empirics literature is the increasing (unconditional) variation in output per capita across countries. We propose a nonparametric decomposition of the conditional variation of output per capita across countries to capture different channels over which the variation might be increasing. We find that OECD countries have experienced diminishing conditional variation while other regions have experienced increasing conditional variation. Our decomposition suggests that most of these changes in the conditional variance of output are due to unobserved factors not accounted for by the traditional growth determinants. In addition to this we show that these factors played very different roles over time and across regions.     

Informational diversity over time and the optimality of monetary equilibria

The temporal realizations of a random state variable in an overlapping generations model create an informational diversity between members of different generations and require a reexamination of the optimality that competitive equilibria might display in such an environment. Using an optimality criterion that reflects this informational diversity we prove the optimality of competitive equilibrium in a model with a fixed stock of fiat money, a single-spot market, and good endowments that follow a Markov process. The need for an optimality criterion that incorporates informational diversity is further motivated by studying the same model with the operation of complete contingent commodities markets.     

Explaining educational attainment across countries and over time

Consider the following facts. In 1950, the richest countries attained an average of 8 years of schooling whereas the poorest countries 1.3 years, a large 6-fold difference. By 2005, the difference in schooling declined to 2-fold because schooling increased faster in poor than in rich countries. What explains educational attainment differences across countries and their evolution over time? We consider an otherwise standard model of schooling featuring non-homothetic preferences and a labor supply margin to assess the quantitative contribution of productivity and life expectancy in explaining educational attainment. A calibrated version of the model accounts for 90 percent of the difference in schooling levels in 1950 between rich and poor countries and 71 percent of the faster increase in schooling over time in poor relative to rich countries. These results suggest an alternative view of the determinants of low education in developing countries that is based on low productivity.     

The trend over time of the gender wage gap in Italy

We analyse gender wage gaps in Italy in the mid-1990s and in the mid-2000s. In this period, important labour market developments took place and they could have had a gender asymmetric impact on wages. We identify the time trends of different components of the gender wage gap across all the wage distribution. Although the unconditional gender wage gap remained roughly constant over time, we find that the component of the gap due to different rewards of similar characteristics deteriorated women’s relative wage. We show that especially women at the centre-top of the wage distribution swam against the tide: while the trend in female qualifications slightly reduced the gender wage gap, the gender-relative trends in the wage structure significantly increased it.     

The role of insurance and gambling in allocating risk over time

Some simple, well-known arguments concerning the value of information are applied to show that diminishing marginal utility will lead to insurance, but insurance-type phenomena do not require diminishing marginal utility. In particular, when there are no restrictions on gambling, it is sufficient to use ordinal properties of the utility function (i.e., properties of indifference curves) to explain the desire to eliminate future risk.     

The role of the United States in the global economy and its evolution over time

This article aims at assessing the role of the United States in the global economy and its evolution over time. Based on a Global VAR modeling approach, this article shows first that countries with a large trade exposure with the U.S. economy have a relatively larger sensitivity to U.S. developments. However, even for countries that do not trade so much with the U.S., they are largely influenced by its dominance through other partners’ trade. Moreover, while no clear trend seems to emerge, it seems that the role of the U.S. in the global economy has changed over time. Overall, for most countries—the latest recession excluded—a change in U.S. GDP had weaker impacts—though more persistent—for most recent periods. The latest recession, however, led to some renewed increase in the sensitivity of the economies to U.S. developments.     

Public goods,taxation, and the distribution of income over time

With given fiscal and collective choice institutions, the provision and concomitant financing of a public good affect individuals' saving decisions and, hence, may affect the course of the income distribution over time. This paper focuses on this problem for the case of a constitutional democracy in which the major fiscal institution is a set of fixed tax shares and the collective choice mechanism is simple majority voting. The redistributive aspects, rather than the equity aspects, of alternative tax structures are explored.     

Competitive equilibrium when preferences change over time

Summary. We show the existence of a competitive equilibrium in an economy with many consumers whose preferences may change over time. The demand correspondence of an individual consumer is determined by the set of subgame-perfect equilibrium outcomes in his intrapersonal game. For additively separable preferences with concave period utility functions that are unbounded above, this demand correspondence will satisfy the usual boundary conditions. Whenever consumers can recall their own mixed actions, this correspondence is convex-valued. This ensures the existence of a symmetric competitive equilibrium.Received: 29 July 2004, Revised: 17 November 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: D51, D91, C73. Correspondence to: Thomas MariottiWe thank Michele Piccione for useful comments and suggestions. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis or the Federal Reserve System.     

Healthcare costs in psoriasis and psoriasis sub-groups over time following psoriasis diagnosis

Aims: To quantify healthcare costs in patients with psoriasis overall and in psoriasis patient sub-groups, by level of disease severity, presence or absence of psoriatic arthritis, or use of biologics.

Methods: Administrative data from Truven Health Analytics MarketScan Research Database were used to select adult patients with psoriasis from January 2009 to January 2014. The first psoriasis diagnosis was set as the index date. Patients were required to have ≥6 months of continuous enrollment with medical and pharmacy benefits pre-index and ≥12 months post-index. Patients were followed from index until the earliest of loss to follow-up or study end. All-cause healthcare costs and outpatient pharmacy costs were calculated for the overall psoriasis cohort and for the six different psoriasis patient sub-groups: (a) patients with moderate-to-severe disease and mild disease, (b) patients with psoriatic arthritis and those without, and (c) patients on biologics and those who are not. Costs are presented per-patient-per-year (PPPY) and by years 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 of follow-up, expressed in 2014?US dollars.

Results: A total of 108,790 psoriasis patients were selected, with a mean age of 46.0 years (52.7% females). Average follow-up was 962 days. All-cause healthcare costs were $12,523 PPPY. Outpatient pharmacy costs accounted for 38.6% of total costs. All-cause healthcare costs were highest for patients on biologics ($29,832), then for patients with psoriatic arthritis ($23,427) and those with moderate-to-severe disease ($21,481). Overall, all-cause healthcare costs and outpatient pharmacy costs presented an upward trend over a 5-year period.

Conclusions: Psoriasis is associated with significant economic burden, which increases over time as the disease progresses. Patients with moderate-to-severe psoriasis, those with psoriatic arthritis, or use of biologics contributes to higher healthcare costs. Psoriasis-related pharmacy expenditure is the largest driver of healthcare costs in patients with psoriasis.