The Trade Consequences of Maritime Insecurity: Evidence from Somali Piracy

In the past decade (2000–2010), pirates from Somalia have carried out thousands of attacks on cargo ships sailing through the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean, causing what others have identified as significant damage to maritime trade. In this paper, we use variations in the spread and intensity of Somali piracy to estimate its effect on the volume of international trade. By comparing trade volume changes along shipping routes located in pirate waters to those that are not, we estimate that Somali piracy reduced bulk commodities trade passing through the Gulf of Aden by 4.1% per year from 2000 to 2010. We find smaller reductions in total trade, consistent with the fact that not all goods are shipped by sea or are targets of pirate attacks. While our estimates suggest that the trade costs of piracy are much lower than what has been suggested in the existing literature, we find that they remain significant and unevenly distributed, with five countries and the EU shouldering 70% of the total costs.     

When was the U.S. housing downturn predictable? A comparison of univariate forecasting methods

This paper uses three classes of univariate time series techniques (ARIMA type models, switching regression models, and state-space/structural time series models) to forecast, on an ex post basis, the downturn in U.S. housing prices starting around 2006. The performance of the techniques is compared within each class and across classes by out-of-sample forecasts for a number of different forecast points prior to and during the downturn. Most forecasting models are able to predict a downturn in future home prices by mid 2006. Some state-space models can predict an impending downturn as early as June 2005. State-space/structural time series models tend to produce the most accurate forecasts, although they are not necessarily the models with the best in-sample fit.     

Heterogeneity in bank pricing policies: The Czech evidence

We estimate the pass-through from market interest rates to bank interest rates using heterogeneous panel cointegration techniques to address heterogeneity at the bank level in the Czech Republic. The results indicate heterogeneity in bank pricing in the short, but not in the long term. Mortgage rates and firm rates typically adjust to money market changes, but often less than fully in the long run. Large corporate loans have a smaller mark-up than small loans. Consumer rates have a high mark-up and do not exhibit a cointegration relationship with money market rates even in the long run. Next, we examine how bank characteristics determine the nature of interest rate pass-through in a cross-section of Czech banks. We find evidence for relationship lending, as banks with a stable pool of deposits smooth interest rates and require a higher spread as compensation. Large banks are not found to price their products less competitively. Greater credit risk increases vulnerability to money market shocks.     

Interest Rates and Stock Prices: Evidence from Central and Eastern European Markets

We provide empirical evidence regarding the responses of Central and Eastern European capital markets to monetary policy via domestic and international short-term interest rate shocks. The analysis is conducted using a four-variable structural vector error correction model identified by means of permanent-transitory restrictions. The results indicate a noticeable effect of the international interest rate on stock market indexes in the cases of the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Romania. Since no monetary policy autonomy exists in Bulgaria, Latvia, and Lithuania, we find support only for the inverse relationship between foreign interest rate and stock index prices.     

Long-range meteorological forecasting and links to agricultural applications

Reliable advance information about likely meteorological conditions during an agricultural season can potentially greatly benefit planning, risk management and productivity. In this article, we review the present state of production and dissemination of meteorological long-range (seasonal) forecast information and the use of such products in agricultural applications.There has been rapid development of dynamical prediction systems in particular, and several centres routinely provide seasonal forecasts of rainfall and temperature with global coverage. Currently the uptake of long-range forecast products by users has been limited, and the potential value is far from being attained. Various factors that inhibit usage are described. Further investment in the infrastructure is required, both in creating relevant specific products and in disseminating and applying them effectively. Investment in research is also required to investigate opportunities and beneficial strategies for a wide range of regions and activities, with closer interaction between the meteorological and agricultural communities and relevant intermediary agencies. Such development would complement separate ongoing efforts to improve the meteorological forecast systems and to improve agricultural management and technology.     

The Media Impact of Board Member Appointments in Spanish-Listed Companies: A Gender Perspective

Recent corporate governance literature on gender diversity within boards has linked the effect of an increase in gender diversity to the firm’s corporate reputation. This paper analyzes the media impact of appointing new directors of Spanish companies at a particularly significant moment, during the period from 2007 to 2010, just a year before and 3 years after the Gender Equality Act was passed. By analyzing female and male board nominations in Spanish IBEX-35 companies, the paper examines whether appointing a female does have greater visibility than appointing a male, and thus a potential signaling effect for corporate stakeholders and an effect on the firm’s reputation. Results indicate that the effect on press visibility of appointing a female versus a male is negligible, although there is significant media visibility for new executive directors, in particular for the case of the only woman nominated as an executive director during the period. The paper contributes to the existing literature on gender diversity in corporate governance, specifically its effect on corporate reputation. The paper also offers information relevant to policy making and in particular to the current debate over quotas for women on boards.     

Proposed framework for the management of resorts Mini Clubs: an ambidextrous approach

ABSTRACT

Drawing on ambidextrous approaches to management, this study has found that Mini Clubs, whilst predominantly adopting an exploitative approach, need to redesign their services to enhance children’s experiences but also to contribute to the resorts’ competitive edge. The study suggests that a two-step strategy needs to be implemented by leisure organisations, namely an increased complexity strategy and an increased divergence strategy, which would make a strategic shift to a more exploratory approach and therefore ambidextrous management and marketing practices. Management initiatives are proposed and discussed in relation to key global trends influencing the leisure and hospitality sector. The paper represents the first endeavour to examine the management of resort Mini Clubs, proposes to fill a gap in the literature aimed to recognise the increasing role of children activities in the leisure and hospitality sector, and contributes to the study of ambidextrous management in leisure research.     

On expectations‐driven business cycles in economies with production externalities: A comment

Eusepi (2009, International Journal of Economic Theory 5, pp. 9–23) analytically finds that a one‐sector real business cycle model may exhibit positive co‐movement between consumption and investment when the equilibrium wage‐hours locus is positively sloped and steeper than the household’s labor supply curve. However, we show that this condition does not imply that expectations‐driven business cycles will emerge in Eusepi's model. Specifically, a positive news shock about future productivity improvement leads to an aggregate recession whereby output, employment, consumption and investment all fall in the announcement period.     

A mixed C-vine copula model for hedging price and volumetric risk in wind power trading

When energy trading companies enter into long-term agreements with wind power producers, where a fixed price is paid for the fluctuating production, they are facing a joint price and volumetric risk. Since the pay-off of such agreements is non-linear, a hedging portfolio would ideally consist of not only forwards, but also a basket of e.g. call and put options. Illiquidity and an almost non-existent market for options challenge however the optimal hedging of joint price and volumetric risk in many market places. Here, we consider the case of the Danish power market, and exploit its strong positive correlation with the much more liquid German market to construct a proxy hedge. We propose a three-dimensional mixed vine copula to model the evolution of the Danish and German spot electricity prices and the Danish wind power production. We construct a realistic hedging portfolio by identifying various instruments available in the market, such as real options in the form of the right to transfer electricity across the border and the right to convert electricity to heat. Using the proposed vine copula to determine optimal hedging decisions, we show that significant benefits are to be drawn by extending the hedging portfolio with the proposed instruments.