The Monetary Multiplier

After modelling the circulation of money as a Markov chain, a special multiplier is set up, explained and investigated. It describes, in mathematical terms, the enlivening course of new money, or the propagation of a monetary injection into a given economy, which David Hume inspected in his famous essay. Some explanation is given to why he considered it, justly, as a transitory phenomenon.     

Efficient learning via simulation: A marginalized resample-move approach

In state–space models, parameter learning is practically difficult and is still an open issue. This paper proposes an efficient simulation-based parameter learning method. First, the approach breaks up the interdependence of the hidden states and the static parameters by marginalizing out the states using a particle filter. Second, it applies a Bayesian resample-move approach to this marginalized system. The methodology is generic and needs little design effort. Different from batch estimation methods, it provides posterior quantities necessary for full sequential inference and recursive model monitoring. The algorithm is implemented both on simulated data in a linear Gaussian model for illustration and comparison and on real data in a Lévy jump stochastic volatility model and a structural credit risk model.     

Targets,indicators and milestones

Area-based initiatives are a major feature of the new public policy agenda of the Labour government in the UK. They are aimed at key policy goals of combating social exclusion and improving the operation of public services, through the encouragement of partnership and participation. However, the delivery of programmes has been heavily influenced by performance management and the use of targets, indicators and milestones to monitor activity. This is creating contradictory pressures on the managers and practitioners within programmes. These issues are discussed and their impact in one area-based activity (the Health Action Zones) is explored.     

Multivariate statistics in industrial marketing management: A practitioner tool kit

Much published work over the years has pointed to the differences between business-to-consumer (B2C) and business-to-business (B2B) marketing. An undesirable by-product of this sometimes misdirected distinction is that managers working within B2B environments have generally not considered the use of what are seen as B2C techniques, such as multivariate statistical analysis. This article is structured in three parts. First, the argument for the similarities between B2B and B2C marketing is developed; second, three different multivariate statistical techniques are presented and combined to form a practical tool kit for use by B2B managers on strategic, operational, and tactical levels; and third, the results of an application of the techniques in the life science research chemicals industry is reported, demonstrating that the tool kit substantially enhanced managerial understanding of customer decision processes.     

Tasks and Organizations: A Signal Detection Model of Organizational Decision Making

This paper presents a mathematical model to study the joint impact of organizational design and of the task environment on the decision performance of hierarchical organizations with limited internal communication. The problem context is a special class of distributed situation assessment problems, where possible patterns of binary variables are to be classified on the basis of partial and noise-corrupted information. Structural properties of tasks and organizations are described using a graph formalism, and optimal decision strategies at all decision makers are determined. Organizational expertise is characterized in the form of a Team Relative Operating Characteristic (TROC) curve, thereby replacing the organization by an equivalent single decision maker. Implementing the model, issues of task decomposition and the process of matching organizations with tasks are discussed.     

Classifying relationships across cultures as successful and problematic: Theoretical perspectives and managerial implications

There is increasing interest in the theoretical and practical challenges that managers face in having to deal with the multiple dualities inherent in managing a portfolio of different business relationships. A number of relationship portfolio models have been developed which use a wide range of criteria for categorizing relationships. The research reported here takes a different approach by identifying the key process and/or outcome elements which managers use to distinguish between successful and problematic relationships, and also offering a comparison of the managers' perceptions across three different countries. The aim is to contribute to the development of more robust management thinking and action. Managers in the United Kingdom (UK), France and Finland were found to think about relationships in terms of both process and outcome variables. Whilst the outcome variables used to discriminate between successful and problematic relationships vary slightly across countries, it was found that they all used the process variables of trust and problem resolution.     

The Recontextualization of Management: A Discourse‐based Approach to Analysing the Development of Management Thinking*

ABSTRACT Many analysts have sought to explain the development and growth of management ideas and discourse in recent years, using notions such as the diffusion and consumption of ideas, and analogies with the fashion industry. These frameworks have a number of weaknesses that inhibit their value. Conceptualizing management knowledge or ideas or thinking as a form of discourse leads us to alternative frameworks for examining developments in this field. Critical Discourse Analysis (CDA) can be used to explore the social processes and structures from which discourse emanates and which discourse in turn underpins. Bernstein's concept of recontextualization can be employed to analyse the discursive relations between different social spheres or conjunctures within which human action takes place and how discourse is changed as it moves between conjunctures to meet the needs of different social agents. In this respect it can be used to analyse how management discourse unfolds as it is produced, distributed and acquired by agents within the academic, consultant and practitioner conjunctures. By doing so we can explore: the intertextual relations between the discourses; how the management discourse becomes technologized; and how hybrid forms of discourse, which mix genres and styles, emerge.