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Statistical Decision Problems and Bayesian Nonparametric Methods 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
This paper considers parametric statistical decision problems conducted within a Bayesian nonparametric context. Our work was motivated by the realisation that typical parametric model selection procedures are essentially incoherent. We argue that one solution to this problem is to use a flexible enough model in the first place, a model that will not be checked no matter what data arrive. Ideally, one would use a nonparametric model to describe all the uncertainty about the density function generating the data. However, parametric models are the preferred choice for many statisticians, despite the incoherence involved in model checking, incoherence that is quite often ignored for pragmatic reasons. In this paper we show how coherent parametric inference can be carried out via decision theory and Bayesian nonparametrics. None of the ingredients discussed here are new, but our main point only becomes evident when one sees all priors—even parametric ones—as measures on sets of densities as opposed to measures on finite-dimensional parameter spaces. 相似文献
3.
This paper analyzes consumer responses to lighter child-resistant mechanisms using an original sample of 200 households with young children. Results from an in-house placement of lighters indicate that the child-resistant mechanism would diminish consumer care. The child-resistant device reduced risk perceptions, parental concern with lighter safety, the assessed need for precautions, and consumer care. The results provide the most detailed empirical evidence of the mechanisms driving the diminished safety precautions in response to technological improvements in safety. The overall efficacy of the mechanism, however, is sufficient to generate a safety improvement despite the diminished care. 相似文献
4.
Exploring sources and outcomes of trust and commitment to nonprofit organizations: The case of Amnesty International Portugal 下载免费PDF全文
Sandra Maria Correia Loureiro Eduardo Moraes Sarmento João Galelo 《International Journal of Nonprofit & Voluntary Sector Marketing》2018,23(3)
The interactions between customers and organizations have been regarded as a core aspect in cocreating and developing new products and practices. The current study explores these interactions in the context of citizens and nonprofit organizations. The study comprises two parts: (a) a qualitative approach using interviews and the analysis of social networks to better understand the organization's social media marketing practices and corresponding outcomes and (b) a quantitative approach to analyze antecedents and outcomes of trust and being committed to participate in a nonprofit organization such as Amnesty International. From the qualitative approach, the findings highlight that Amnesty International uses social media (Facebook) to share information, and citizens tend to consider sharing posts, but they do not express new ideas or interact with the organization. These findings contribute to structure the model analyzed in the second stage of the research. Regarding the qualitative approach, the results show that organizational credibility is the most significant driver of trust followed by communicative ability. Affectively commitment to participation and relationship perception act as outcomes of overall commitment. 相似文献
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We examine the quantile serial dependence in crude oil prices based on the Linton and Whang’s quantile-based portmanteau test which we improved by means of quantile wild bootstrapping (QWB). Through Monte Carlo simulation, we find that the quantile wild bootstrap-based portmanteau test performs better than the bound testing procedure suggested by Linton and Whang. We apply the improved test to examine the efficiency of two crude oil markets – WTI and Brent. We also examine if the dependence is stable via rolling sample tests. Our results show that both WTI and Brent are serially dependent in all, except the median quantiles. These findings suggest that it may be misleading to examine the efficiency of crude oil markets in terms of mean (or median) returns only. These crude oil markets are relatively more serially dependent in non-median ranges. 相似文献
7.
Luisa Maria Tumbajoy Cardona Rosley Anholon Dirceu da Silva Robert Eduardo Cooper Ordóñez Osvaldo Luiz Gonçalves Quelhas 《Latin American Business Review》2013,14(3-4):297-321
This article aims to evaluate the production line automation projects developed by Brazilian and Colombian companies from the Project Management perspective, through the analysis of the application degree of PMBOK processes, to understand how formal techniques are being employed in these countries and also to identify improvement opportunities, when necessary. Data were collected through a survey. The similarity index between the ten processes, with the highest application degree in the Brazilian and Colombian samples, was 70%. For the processes with the lowest application degree, the similarity index was 60%. No similar study was found in the literature. 相似文献
8.
This paper uses a difference-in-difference methodology similar to the one originally proposed by Rajan and Zingales to test
whether sovereign defaults hurt the more export-oriented industries disproportionately, and it finds strong support for this
hypothesis. However, contrary to the findings of previous studies, our estimates suggest that the effect of defaults is short-lived. 相似文献
9.
The paper analyzes the guarantee of the Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA). Rather than try to price the guarantee, we used time-series estimates of its value from Kane and Foster to infer the behavior of FNMA in exploiting the guarantee. The results are consistent with a model that predicts that FNMA does not take as much risk as it might. Rather, it trades off risk and return, but it does increase risk and exploit the guarantee when it gets in trouble (as it did in 1981).We have received helpful research assistance from Peter Carr and Bruno Gerard. 相似文献
10.
Stephen Day Cauley Andrey D. Pavlov Eduardo S. Schwartz 《The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics》2007,34(3):283-311
Personal preferences and financial incentives make homeownership desirable for most families. Once a family purchases a home
they find it impractical (costly) to frequently change their ownership of residential real estate. Thus, by deciding how much
home to buy, a family constrains their ability to adjust their asset allocation between residential real estate and other
assets. To analyze the impact of this constraint on consumption, welfare, and post-retirement wealth, we first investigate
an individual’s optimal asset allocation decisions when they are subject to a “homeownership constraint.” Next, we perform
a “thought experiment” where we assume the existence of a market where a homeowner can sell, without cost, a fractional interest
in their home. Now the housing choice decision does not constrain the individual’s asset allocations. By comparing these two
cases, we estimate the differences in post-retirement wealth and the welfare gains potentially realizable if asset allocations
were not subject to a homeownership constraint. For realistic parameter values, we find that the homeowner would require a
substantial increase in total net worth to achieve the same level of utility as would be achievable if the choice of a home
could be separated from the asset allocation decision. The robustness of the analysis is evaluated with respect to the model’s
parameters and initial state variables. We find that changes in the values of the constraint (i.e., the value of the home)
and the expected real rate of home value appreciation are the only state variables or parameter that is associated with a
large change in asset allocation and/or the burden imposed by the housing constraint. This finding suggests the importance
of a detailed examination of the impact of inter-regional differences in home prices and expected rates of appreciation on
asset allocation and post-retirement wealth. 相似文献