The effects of economic news on commodity prices

We assess how commodity prices respond to macroeconomic news and show that commodities have been relatively insensitive to such news over daily frequencies between 1997 and 2009 compared to other financial assets and major exchange rates. Where commodity prices are influenced by news, there is a pro-cyclical bias and these sensitivities have risen as commodities have become increasingly financialized. However, models based on news still do a relatively poor job of forecasting commodity prices at daily frequencies. We also find some asymmetries in how commodity prices respond to news, most notably for gold, which alone among commodities acts as a safe-haven when “bad” economic news emerges.     

A new way of looking at old things. An application of Guttman errors analysis to the study of environmental concern

This study shows how Guttman errors analysis can be applied to social research. In this work, the method is used in the study of environmental concern. The new instrument usefully chart also ways in which less evident forms of engagements may be recognized. The study uses data from the 2000 World Values Survey and International Social Survey Programme. First, Mokken Scale Analysis is applied to build a cumulative scale of mobilization for the defense of the environment. Second, Guttman errors are analyzed to identify specific patterns of activism. The analysis of the indexes enable the isolation of an often elusive phenomenon not shown by other techniques: the presence of individuals with a pronounced degree of activism but who do not share the attitudes of the majority of environmentalists. These particular patterns might constitute specific ways to relate to the environment. Guttman errors analysis can be fruitfully applied in measurement of attitudes or behavior. In particular, it can shed light on the presence of individual that sociological research should consider, study and label separately.     

Does consumption respond to predicted increases in cash-hand availability?: Evidence from the Italian “severance pay”

We examine whether Italian household consumption exhibits excess sensitivity to “severance pay”, a sizable lump-sum that workers receive at job termination. We find no evidence of excess sensitivity of non-durable expenditure to this anticipated cash-in-hand change.