Testing for cointegration with threshold effect between unemployment and stock prices

Under the dominant role of a belief function, Farmer argues that the stock market is the Granger cause of the unemployment rate, which implies that the natural rate hypothesis is an outdated idea. This article provides some new empirical evidence supporting this view using threshold cointegration and asymmetric error correction models. The results show that these models can assess asymmetric dynamics between unemployment and the stock market. Moreover, regime switches of the momentum threshold autoregressive adjustment specification are highly consistent with recessions in the US economy during the last 60 years.     

The role of financial development on the underground economy in regards to Europe’s 2020 strategy

This paper attempts to investigate the relationships between development in the financial sector and the size of the underground economy in European Union countries. Our aim is to investigate the role of financial sector development when it comes to the size of the underground economy, as well as how financial development aids in meeting the growth objectives of the ‘Europe 2020 Strategy’. Panel data analysis will be conducted for the period 2004–2017 in order to examine the effects of financial sector development on the size of the underground economy. The main findings of this paper suggest that financial development has a significantly reducing effect on the size of the underground economy. In conclusion, development within the financial sector significantly lessens underground economic activity in the European Union. With further development of the financial sector, underground economies will not be an obstacle for the fulfilment of the cohesion and growth objectives of the Europe 2020 strategy.     

Business Cycles Synchronisation and Symmetries in the Transition to East African Monetary Union

Our paper explores the prospects for the proposed East African Monetary Union (EAMU) by employing rigorous empirical tools to analyse business cycles synchronisation, structural cross-correlations, spectral decomposition and regional clusters to identify different cyclical episodes, periodicities and characterise the economic cycles of East African countries. We find that cyclical movements reflect various idiosyncratic, common, historical and external shocks in the region. Secondly, all countries appear to be structurally correlated with each other except for South Sudan and Burundi. Our results also observe that the contemporaneous co-movements of East African Community (EAC) cycles with those of Kenya and Tanzaniaare procyclical with coincidental path shift, while the same EAC cycles appear to be acyclical with those of Burundi. Additionally, from the spectral decomposition, Kenyan cycles take 10 years to complete, while those of Tanzania and Rwanda take 8 years. Ugandan and Burundian cycles take approximately 5 years, while the cyclical frequency for South Sudan corresponds to 3.3 years. Finally, the cluster characterisation of countries reveals that South Sudan, Burundi and Rwanda form a group, while Kenya and Tanzania from a group distinct from the rest. We urge the member countries to prioritise policies on regional risk-sharing and adjustment mechanisms, in addition to establishing credible institutional infrastructure that ensures surveillance and enforcement of convergence conditions adopted in EAMU protocol.     

Reconsidering Media Discourses on Food Crisis from a Quantitative Perspective

In 2007–2008, when food prices started to increase dramatically, purchasing power parity of consumers, especially the urban poor, started to decrease automatically. High food prices were argued to cause poverty, hunger, and food riots among urban populations. Henceforward, “food crisis” became a new storyline in the current debate. In contrast, in the pre-2007 period, when rural farmers had been facing negative welfare effects of low food prices for many years, there were no crisis talks. This article analyzes different media coverage of urban consumers and rural producers under changes in relative incomes for the 2000–2013 period and propounds media bias on the food crisis debate by using content analysis and the OLS regression model.     

Spillover effects on government bond yields in euro zone. Does full financial integration exist in European government bond markets?

This paper examines the time varying nature of European government bond market integration by employing multivariate GARCH models. We state that unlike other bond markets, in euro markets the default(credit) risk factor and other macroeconomic and fiscal indicators are not able to explain the sovereign bond yields after the beginning of monetary union. This fact might be counted as a signal for perfect financial integration. However, we also find that the global shocks affect Germany and the rest of euro bond markets in various levels, creating particular discrepancies in asset prices even we take into account the market specific factors. Different level responses of each euro market to the global shocks reveal that euro bond markets are not fully integrated with each other unlike the recent literature claimed. Besides, we explore that the global factors are effective for the volatility of yield differentials among euro government bonds.     

Is the US Dollar a Suitable Anchor for the Newly Proposed GCC Currency?

Responses of inflation and non‐oil output growth from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries to monetary policy shocks from the United States (US) were estimated to determine whether there is evidence to support the US dollar as the anchor for the proposed unified currency. A structural vector autoregression identified with short‐run restrictions was employed for each country with Fed funds rate as the US monetary policy instrument, non‐oil output growth and inflation. The main results suggest that for inflation, the GCC countries show synchronised responses to monetary policy shocks from the US which are similar to inflation in the US, and for non‐oil output growth, there is no clear indication that US monetary policy can be as effective for the GCC countries as it is domestically. Consequently, importing US monetary policy via a dollar peg may guarantee only stable inflation for the GCC countries – not necessarily stable non‐oil output growth. If the non‐oil output response is made conscientiously – and there are concerns over the dollar’s ability to perform its role as a store of value – a basket peg with both the US dollar and the euro may be a sound alternative as confirmed by the variance decomposition analysis of our augmented SVAR with a proxy for the European short‐term interest rate.     

The relationship between tourism,CO2 emissions and economic growth: a case of Mediterranean countries

This study explores the impact of tourism on economic growth considering CO₂ emissions utilizing panel data techniques for a sample of Mediterranean countries. The cointegration tests reveal that there is a positive long-run equilibrium between tourism, CO₂ emissions and economic growth. This positive long-run relationship may suggest that tourism increases the level of CO₂ emissions and has a statistically significant impact on economic growth in Mediterranean countries. Emirmahmutoglu and Kose (2011. Testing for Granger causality in heterogeneous mixed panels. Economic Modelling, 28(3), 870–876.) test results reveal that the tourism-led growth hypothesis, which suggests that tourism contributes to economic growth, is valid for Egypt, Italy, and Spain. Additionally, there exists a bidirectional relationship between tourism and economic growth both in Morocco and Turkey.     

The Ottoman dissolution and the İstanbul bourse between war and peace: a foreign exchange market perspective on the Great War

The participation of the Ottoman Empire in the First World War caused economic disruptions, huge budget deficits, surmounted inflation rates and excessive depreciation of Lira, the Ottoman currency. Based on the value of Lira against the currencies of Switzerland, Netherlands, Sweden that were not in the war, we focus on the effects of news about the war on the foreign exchange rates at the ?stanbul bourse from 1918 to 1919. Our results signify some dates, which match the announcements of the armistices and peace meetings, heralding continuous depreciation of Lira. Thus, the findings support the presence of an expectation on the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire with the peace, marked by the escalation of the loss in trust for the Lira and the power of the state in foreign exchange interventions.     

On the feasibility of monetary union among Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries: does the symmetry of shocks extend to the non-oil sector?

GCC countries’ output is heavily dichotomized into oil and non-oil. Oil shocks have similar effects on all member countries but little is known about their responses to non-oil shocks. This paper sets out to determine (1) whether aggregate demand (AD) and non-oil supply shocks (AS) are symmetrical across these countries to justify their suitability for monetary union; and (2) whether there is any commonality of shocks with the United States and the three major European countries, namely France, Germany, and Italy, which can warrant the choice of either the US dollar or the Euro as the anchor for the expected common currency of the bloc. We use bivariate structural vector autoregression models identified with long-run restrictions to extract the shocks. Our results show that (a) AD shocks are unequivocally symmetrical but non-oil AS shocks are weakly symmetrical across GCC countries thereby suggesting a monetary union is feasible, but not overwhelmingly; (b) neither AD nor AS shocks are symmetrical between GCC countries and the selected European countries; (c) GCC’s AD shocks are symmetrical with the US but non-oil AS shock are not. Furthermore, there are no significant changes in the results when we aggregate the GCC countries as a bloc. We therefore surmise that the US dollar is a more appropriate anchor for the new currency than the Euro since US monetary policy can at least help smooth demand shocks in GCC countries.     

The impact of political connections on government bailout: the 2008 credit crunch in the United States

Why is there so little money in contributions to political action committees (PAC) in United States’ politics? While there may be several explanations for this puzzle, we consider corporate PAC contributions as an insurance-like instrument that induces firms’ expectations of safeguard at times of grave need, with the 2008 credit crunch as a case in point. Given the unlikely occurrence of a credit crunch, few financial firms invest in PAC contributions. However, we find firms that make PAC contributions may gain ex ante benefits of corporate PACs as protection from financial distress by undertaking profitable but risky projects that later become illiquid assets while requiring the bailout money during the 2008 credit crunch. We also find that both consistent PAC investments over election cycles and subsequent lobbying activity to corporate PACs further allow firms to utilize their political ties as safeguard and demand additional bailout money. Our instrumental variable analysis confirms that firms with prior experience in political investments are found to enhance the likelihood and effectiveness of PAC contributions and related political investments.