The Struggle for Alternatives: NGOs' Responses to the World Development Report 2008

This paper analyzes the response by NGOs to the 2008 World Development Report (WDR08). It does so at two levels of analysis, which in turn reflect two possible ways of reading the WDR08. The first is to read the WDR08 as a document for policy guidance on 'agriculture for development'. In this respect the paper shows how NGOs expose and challenge the WDR08's optimism for the benign impact of unregulated agribusiness investment on poverty reduction, and put forward a convincing alternative. The second, and politically more fertile, way of reading the WDR08 is to make sense of its numerous internal contradictions. These contradictions are functional to the World Bank's hegemonic effort of establishing a common, and broader, agenda for rural development. Having highlighted the WDR08's incoherent messages on (i) rural labour markets and their role in poverty reduction and (ii) what constitutes the most promising driver of poverty reduction in agriculture (returns from wage labour vs from own account farming), the paper documents NGOs' failure to detect and politically exploit these contradictions.     

The Effects of Monetary Policy on Unemployment Dynamics under Model Uncertainty: Evidence from the United States and the Euro Area

This paper explores the role that the imperfect knowledge of the structure of the economy plays in the uncertainty surrounding the effects of rule-based monetary policy on unemployment dynamics in the euro area and the United States. We employ a Bayesian model averaging procedure on a wide range of models which differ in several dimensions to account for the uncertainty that the policymaker faces when setting the monetary policy and evaluating its effect on real economy. We find evidence of a high degree of dispersion across models in both policy rule parameters and impulse response functions. Moreover, monetary policy shocks have very similar recessionary effects on the two economies with a different role played by the participation rate in the transmission mechanism. Finally, we show that a policymaker who does not take model uncertainty into account and selects the results on the basis of a single model may come to misleading conclusions not only about the transmission mechanism, but also about the differences between the euro area and the United States, which are on average essentially small.     

Household Debt and Income Inequality, 1963–2003

I construct an economy with heterogeneous agents that mimics the time-series behavior of the earnings distribution in the United States from 1963 to 2003. Agents face aggregate and idiosyncratic shocks and accumulate real and financial assets. I estimate the shocks that drive the model using data on income inequality, aggregate income, and measures of financial liberalization. I show how the model economy can replicate two empirical facts: the trend and cyclical behavior of household debt and the diverging patterns in consumption and wealth inequality over time. While business cycle fluctuations can account for the short-run changes in household debt, its prolonged rise of the 1980s and the 1990s can be quantitatively explained only by the concurrent increase in income inequality.     

The Age of the Dragon: The Effect of Imports from China on Firm‐Level Prices

We analyze the impact of increased import penetration from China on the dynamics of firm‐level output prices in Italy. Accounting for potential endogeneity biases we find a significant and negative causal relationship: a 0.1 percentage point higher Chinese import penetration restrains price growth by 0.17 percentage points per year. This relationship reflects a procompetitive effect induced by cheaper imports, and, thanks to the firm‐level dimension of our data, we show that it is driven by low‐productivity firms within less skill‐intensive sectors. Finally, we show that Chinese import competition also had a dampening effect on Italian overall inflation.     

What Was Left of the Groundnut Scheme? Development Disaster and Labour Market in Southern Tanganyika 1946–1952

The East African Groundnut Scheme in Tanganyika is probably the most dramatic and most cited failure of the ambitions of British late colonial developmentalism. Issues of labour supply in the scheme's short history, and the relationship of labour supply with the peasant economy of Southern Province, have received almost no attention, a gap which this article aims to begin to fill. It suggests that the implementation of the scheme gave rise to a political battle over labour market control between the colonial state in Tanganyika and scheme managers. The paper documents how, without any support from the colonial administration, the scheme attempted to recruit the large numbers of workers it required, and its frustrations in doing so. It investigates the factors that prevented labour supply satisfying demand, how peasants in the area engaged with the labour market (and were able to adjust their participation in it), and the impact of labour market growth on the household farm economy.     

Through the magnifying glass: provincial aspects of industrial growth in post‐Unification Italy1

This article presents estimates of industrial production in post‐Unification Italy's 69 provinces in the census years 1871, 1881, 1901, and 1911. Initially industry was largely artisanal, and located in the former political capitals; but even then the waterfalls of the subalpine north‐west attracted what factory industry there was. Contrary to widespread opinion, in the aftermath of Unification the industrial and overall growth leaders were actually in the south, where selected provinces reaped the gains from the freer foreign trade, and infrastructure investment, that accompanied the loss of independence. Over the later nineteenth century industry concentrated into the ‘industrial triangle’; but even there industrialization remained sharply local, and excluded the right bank of the upper Po. The early twentieth century, in turn, brought a measure of industrial diffusion—to the centre/north‐east, where it was tied to the production of perishables on recently improved land—and concentration within the north‐western triangle itself, into its major cities, as progress in energy transmission effectively moved the waterfalls into the plains.     

Assessing Trust Through Social Capital? A Possible Experimental Answer

Trust is important in economics: several transactions are based on it; unfortunately it is difficult to measure. The recent economic literature on social capital shows a positive association between this concept and trust. As social capital is easier to measure than trust, this paper analyzes the possibility of assessing trust using a measure of social capital. A basic trust game is played in three Western European countries with undergraduate students; a questionnaire measures their level of social capital as time spent within social networks. This measure is stronger and more precise than the ones generally used. The use of an experiment instead of a questionnaire allows for constructing a measure of trust that is continuous in principle. Moreover, to play an experiment allows for observing the behavior of the participants better than by the means of a survey. The results are supportive of the fact that trust can be assessed through social capital, although the presence of a strong geographical effect has to be accounted for.     

On the Instability of Long‐Run Money Demand and the Welfare Cost of Inflation in the United States

We evaluate the policy implications of measuring the welfare cost of inflation accounting for instabilities in the long‐run money demand for the United States over the period 1900–2013. We extend the analysis and reassess the results reported in Lucas (2000) and Ireland (2009), also considering the recent theoretical contributions of Lucas and Nicolini (2015) and Berentsen, Huber, and Marchesiani (2015). Breaks in the long‐run money demand give rise to regime‐dependent welfare cost estimates. We find that the welfare cost is about 0.1% of annual income over 1976–2013, as compared to 0.8% over 1945–75. Overall, these values are substantially lower than those reported in the literature.     

Aggregate Stability and Balanced‐Budget Rules

It has been shown that under perfect competition and a Cobb‐Douglas production function, a basic real business cycle model may exhibit indeterminacy and sunspot fluctuations when income tax rates are determined by a balanced‐budget rule (BBR). This paper introduces in an otherwise standard real business cycle model a more general and data‐coherent class of production functions, namely, a constant elasticity of substitution production function. We show that the degree of substitutability between production factors is a key ingredient to understanding the (de)stabilizing properties of a BBR. Then we calibrate the model consistently with the empirical evidence; that is, we set the elasticity of substitution between labor and capital below unity. We show that compared to the Cobb‐Douglas case, the likelihood of indeterminacy under a BBR is greatly reduced in the U.S., the EU, and the UK.